To The Moon

Recent headlines are sounding familiar — warnings that U.S. stocks are looking “bubble-like,” with valuations at dotcom-era highs. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio sits well above historical norms, while margin debt has hit record levels. Yet volatility remains low, and optimism around AI and productivity growth continues to fuel the rally. So, are we headed for a crash? Not necessarily — but the risk of a correction is real. Here’s the picture based on current indicators: • Valuations are stretched — a 10–25% pullback would not be surprising. • Market concentration in a few tech giants means sentiment shifts could ripple widely. • Macro indicators like the yield curve are no longer inverted, suggesting recession risks have eased — but leverage and investor complacency remain high. • Fu

Recent headlines are sounding familiar — warnings that U.S. stocks are looking “bubble-like,” with valuations at dotcom-era highs. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio sits well above historical norms, while margin debt has hit record levels. Yet volatility remains low, and optimism around AI and productivity growth continues to fuel the rally. So, are we headed for a crash? Not necessarily — but the risk of a correction is real. Here’s the picture based on current indicators: • Valuations are stretched — a 10–25% pullback would not be surprising. • Market concentration in a few tech giants means sentiment shifts could ripple widely. • Macro indicators like the yield curve are no longer inverted, suggesting recession risks have eased — but leverage and investor complacency remain high. • Fu