To The Moon

As of today, the joint U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have entered their third day. International futures markets, as expectations about the direction of the war have shifted, have gone through a clear sequence: sharp volatility, then a period of tight balance with slowing swings, and now a renewed pickup in volatility. A war-driven pullback in global risk appetite, together with a surge in safe-haven demand, is gradually turning into a broader wave of portfolio rebalancing.This round of fighting—where major world powers and a major Middle Eastern state are directly entering the battlefield—seems to have convinced many global analysts that the conflict may be moving beyond a localized event and toward a wider confrontation. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israel side’s unsparing “decapitation” actions ag

$Costco(COST)$ is set to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday, March 5, 2026, after the market closes. Following a strong Q1, expectations are high, with the stock trading near all-time highs and a premium valuation of approximately 53x P/E. Q2 2026 Earnings Expectations Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates are around $4.53 to $4.54, representing a ~12.7% increase year-over-year. Revenue: Projected at $69.22 billion, an 8.6% increase from the prior year. Comparable Sales (Comps): Analysts are looking for total company comp growth of 5.7% to 6.5%. January sales data already showed a robust 7.1% increase, providing a strong tailwind for the quarter. Costco (COST) reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on December 11, 2025. While the

SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range