To The Moon

In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings tomorrow, Thursday, May 21, 2026, before the U.S. market opens (with the conference call at 8:00 AM ET). This is arguably one of the most highly anticipated earnings reports for Nio in years. Thanks to a massive surge in vehicle deliveries, the company is on the verge of proving its long-term financial sustainability. Here is a comprehensive breakdown of the key metrics to watch and how you can position yourself for a short-term trade post-earnings. The Headline Expectations Revenue: Consensus estimates sit around 24.5 to 25.2 billion RMB (~$3.16B to $3.55B USD), which represents a massive 100% to 114% growth year-over-year compared to Q1 2025. Adjusted EPS: Expected at around -$0.24 USD

Inference became theatre. Investors arrived before the final act The IPO That Arrived Exactly on Cue Cerebras Systems did not quietly tiptoe onto the public markets. It marched in wearing a brass band, carrying a wafer-sized silicon dinner plate, and demanding Wall Street’s full attention. At one point, investors valued the company at roughly $95 billion following its explosive debut, briefly treating it less like a semiconductor firm and more like the AI equivalent of discovering fire. What fascinates me is not merely the technology. The real story is the timing. Cerebras went public at the precise moment the AI narrative flipped from training models to running them. For the past two years, investors obsessed over who could build the biggest large language model. Now the market cares abou

Executive Summary Filed mid-May 2026 · As at March 31, 2026 · Five Investors · One Signal Map An AI-generated image thanks to Gemini The Problem 13F filings arrive with a 45-day lag. By the time retail investors read the news, the smart money has already moved. The signal is real — but it needs context to be actionable. What We Observed Five investors with radically different styles all filed Q1 2026 13Fs in mid-May. The aggregate picture reveals diverging bets — particularly on Big Tech, energy commodities, and the coming economic cycle. Key Finding Buffett is simplifying aggressively (GOOGL in, AMZN/UNH out). Ackman is rotating into MSFT just as Li Lu holds GOOGL steady. Pabrai is doubling down on cyclical hard assets. Nobody is buying the same thing — which is the most interesting signa