To The Moon

As of the market close on June 18, 2026 (latest comprehensive data available), here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance figures for the requested indexes and groups. Major Indexes (Price Returns, unless noted) S&P 500: +9.57% (Total Return ~+10.20%, including ~0.63% dividends). NASDAQ Composite: ~+14.09% (stronger recent momentum; Nasdaq-100, a related tech-heavy gauge, at +20.42%). Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +7.29%. Wilshire 5000 (FT Wilshire 5000 Full Cap): +9.74%. S&P 500 Breakdown and Magnificent 7 S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7): Has generally outperformed the Mag 7 in 2026 so far, contributing to broader market gains. Exact current YTD not pinned in all sources, but it has led relative performance amid Mag 7 weakness (e.g., earlier in the ye

A one-day rebound does not settle the debate. The bullish interpretation is that the market absorbed a hawkish surprise and immediately found buyers. The fact that semiconductors could rebound so violently suggests there is still substantial demand for AI-linked assets. Apple's warning about memory prices reinforces the view that supply remains tight, while support for Intel helped sentiment across the chip complex. The bearish interpretation is that the drivers were narrow and thematic rather than macroeconomic. If Governor Kevin Warsh remains committed to tighter policy, higher discount rates still pressure long-duration growth stocks. One strong session does not remove that headwind. What I would watch: Whether chip leaders continue outperforming for several days, not just one. Whether

the midterm election is happening at early nov so i doubt there will be a sept rate hike to reduce trump's votes.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ — Do Not Buy $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ — Do Not Buy $Adobe(ADBE)$ — Do Not Buy $Micron Technology(MU)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $Intel(INTC)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ NQ— Strong Buy Recommendation $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $SpaceX(SPCX)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation If you're an investor, feel free to like and follow.

My Investing Muse (22Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits. Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves My muse The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain e

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Jun2026) NSA Director Gen. Joshua Rudd claims Anthropic’s “MYTHOS” broke into America’s most sensitive classified systems in just a few hours. Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. GIC nears deal to offload US$2 billion in private credit stakes - The Business Times Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Cisco, and Meta have all capped or limited employee

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Jun2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.00, indicating the market has equal buying and selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bulli

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil m

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption. Inflation

The sharp reversal we just saw after the post-FOMC selloff highlights a massive tug-of-war in this market. On one side, you have a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaling rate hikes; on the other, you have powerhouse corporate earnings and a relentless secular boom in AI and hardware. To determine whether this is true resilience or a "fake bounce" ahead of a deeper drop, we have to look closely at the data mechanics driving the price action. What Is Sustaining the Resilience? The core factor preventing a total macro meltdown is simple: unprecedented dispersion and earnings power. The macro backdrop is heavy, but single-stock fundamentals—particularly in tech—are acting as a massive structural buffer. The Semiconductor Complex: This is the undisputed anchor

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

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I would lean towards "theme-driven bounce until proven otherwise." A 2.5% rebound in QQQ and a near-20% surge in leveraged semiconductor ETFs looks impressive, but the drivers were largely stock-specific and sentiment-driven rather than a broad improvement in macro conditions. If the market's concern yesterday was tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer rates, that concern has not disappeared overnight. What is encouraging is that buyers remain eager to step into AI and semiconductor weakness. That suggests the AI capex narrative is still intact and institutions are not rushing for the exits. What is less encouraging is the market's tendency to rotate violently from panic to euphoria within 24 hours, which is characteristic of a volatile trading environment rather than a stable uptre

I feel the U.S. dollar will strengthen as the U.S. economy continues to perform well. Inflation could remain subdued if additional oil supply from Venezuela and Iran returns to global markets. With the U.S. also becoming a major exporter of oil and natural gas, a stronger energy position may further support the dollar. In addition, record profits and massive capital spending by U.S. AI companies, coupled with a relatively low unemployment rate and the absence of quantitative easing (QE), provide further support for the U.S. economy and the dollar. AI investment is increasingly becoming a major driver of economic growth and corporate earnings. My view is that the U.S. dollar will rise while Treasury yields gradually decline. The Federal Reserve may eventually lower interest rates (my own op

🌟🌟 Artificial Intelligence has created unprecedented market value but the window for trading on pure hype is slamming shut.  The core question haunting the market is whether actual commercial adoption can grow fast enough to sustain today's sky high tech stock valuations. Building AI infrastructure is brutally capital intensive.  Companies are discovering that deploying AI models involves immense energy consumption & massive cloud spending. Nonetheless there are 3 tech stocks that can withstand this volatility: $Alphabet(GOOG)$ self funds its massive USD 175 billion Capex entirely out of its own operations, carrying neglible debt exposure. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has an unrivalled monopoly in the

The era of the "Fed Put" and easy money lifting all boats is officially OVER. We are entering a brand new market reality. Market Tantrum ➔ Fed "Pleases" the Market ➔ Excess Liquidity (QE) ➔ Runaway Inflation ➔ Asset Bubble ➔ Forced Aggressive Hikes ➔ Bubble Bursts 💥 When a Fed Chair constantly moves to please the market by pumping liquidity (free money) at the first sign of trouble, it creates a dangerous chain reaction.  Under the old way of doing things, when the Fed pleased the market, it caused all stocks to rise indiscriminately. That wasn't because the companies were suddenly more productive or profitable—it was just massive inflation inflating asset prices. It was a "rising tide" made of paper money. Warsh’s refusal to spoon-feed Wall Street means a stock won’t rise just becaus

AI can justify today's valuations, but only if revenue growth translates into sustained earnings growth. The market is already pricing in massive adoption, so good execution may no longer be enough. Companies need exceptional execution. As for tightening, this looks more like a precautionary inflation response than an aggressive hiking cycle. Unless inflation accelerates materially, central banks are unlikely to tighten indefinitely. For the bull market, the key risk is not rates themselves but earnings. Bull markets usually end when profits weaken, liquidity dries up, or recession risks surge. So far, earnings remain relatively healthy despite higher rates. My view: this is more likely a late-cycle repricing than the beginning of the end. Expect higher volatility, narrower leadership, an

A hawkish Fed changes the timing of returns more than the long-term value of quality businesses. Higher rates compress valuations, especially for long-duration growth stocks, but they do not necessarily damage the underlying earnings power of companies like Meta Platforms and Microsoft. If inflation is genuinely re-accelerating and the market begins pricing out cuts, value sectors such as financials, industrials, and energy could continue to outperform in the near term. However, betting heavily on a rapid Fed pivot has historically been risky when inflation remains above target. For long-term investors, a balanced approach often makes more sense than a wholesale rotation. Trimming positions that have become oversized and rebalancing into cheaper areas is reasonable. Abandoning quality grow

oh good. bank interest rates go up.

Probably a precautionary adjustment with slowing momentum of historic highs.

As of the market close on June 18, 2026 (latest comprehensive data available), here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance figures for the requested indexes and groups. Major Indexes (Price Returns, unless noted) S&P 500: +9.57% (Total Return ~+10.20%, including ~0.63% dividends). NASDAQ Composite: ~+14.09% (stronger recent momentum; Nasdaq-100, a related tech-heavy gauge, at +20.42%). Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +7.29%. Wilshire 5000 (FT Wilshire 5000 Full Cap): +9.74%. S&P 500 Breakdown and Magnificent 7 S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7): Has generally outperformed the Mag 7 in 2026 so far, contributing to broader market gains. Exact current YTD not pinned in all sources, but it has led relative performance amid Mag 7 weakness (e.g., earlier in the ye

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption. Inflation

The sharp reversal we just saw after the post-FOMC selloff highlights a massive tug-of-war in this market. On one side, you have a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaling rate hikes; on the other, you have powerhouse corporate earnings and a relentless secular boom in AI and hardware. To determine whether this is true resilience or a "fake bounce" ahead of a deeper drop, we have to look closely at the data mechanics driving the price action. What Is Sustaining the Resilience? The core factor preventing a total macro meltdown is simple: unprecedented dispersion and earnings power. The macro backdrop is heavy, but single-stock fundamentals—particularly in tech—are acting as a massive structural buffer. The Semiconductor Complex: This is the undisputed anchor

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

A one-day rebound does not settle the debate. The bullish interpretation is that the market absorbed a hawkish surprise and immediately found buyers. The fact that semiconductors could rebound so violently suggests there is still substantial demand for AI-linked assets. Apple's warning about memory prices reinforces the view that supply remains tight, while support for Intel helped sentiment across the chip complex. The bearish interpretation is that the drivers were narrow and thematic rather than macroeconomic. If Governor Kevin Warsh remains committed to tighter policy, higher discount rates still pressure long-duration growth stocks. One strong session does not remove that headwind. What I would watch: Whether chip leaders continue outperforming for several days, not just one. Whether

My Investing Muse (22Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits. Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves My muse The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain e

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Jun2026) NSA Director Gen. Joshua Rudd claims Anthropic’s “MYTHOS” broke into America’s most sensitive classified systems in just a few hours. Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. GIC nears deal to offload US$2 billion in private credit stakes - The Business Times Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Cisco, and Meta have all capped or limited employee

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ — Do Not Buy $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ — Do Not Buy $Adobe(ADBE)$ — Do Not Buy $Micron Technology(MU)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $Intel(INTC)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ NQ— Strong Buy Recommendation $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $SpaceX(SPCX)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation If you're an investor, feel free to like and follow.

the midterm election is happening at early nov so i doubt there will be a sept rate hike to reduce trump's votes.

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil m

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Jun2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.00, indicating the market has equal buying and selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bulli

The stock market can look confusing when you only read the headline. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ hits a record high. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ falls. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ slips. AI stocks cool down. Oil drops. The Fed is still in focus. At first glance, this looks contradictory. If the market is strong, why is tech weak? If investors are bullish, why are $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, and other AI names under pressure? If the Dow is breaking records, why does it not feel like every portfolio is celebrating? The

The major indices sold off yesterday: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.57%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ dropped 1.15%. Today started differently. Stocks opened higher, with the S&P up about 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.6%, before giving back some gains during the session. Just weeks ago Goldman Sachs was talking about S&P 8000. Now Citadel and PGIM are warning about inflation, rates, and valuation risk. Japan has already begun tightening. The global conversation is shifting from rate cuts back to rate hikes. Just days ago, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1%. A few weeks earlier Goldman Sachs was calling for S&P 8000 and raising

I would lean towards "theme-driven bounce until proven otherwise." A 2.5% rebound in QQQ and a near-20% surge in leveraged semiconductor ETFs looks impressive, but the drivers were largely stock-specific and sentiment-driven rather than a broad improvement in macro conditions. If the market's concern yesterday was tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer rates, that concern has not disappeared overnight. What is encouraging is that buyers remain eager to step into AI and semiconductor weakness. That suggests the AI capex narrative is still intact and institutions are not rushing for the exits. What is less encouraging is the market's tendency to rotate violently from panic to euphoria within 24 hours, which is characteristic of a volatile trading environment rather than a stable uptre

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

The era of the "Fed Put" and easy money lifting all boats is officially OVER. We are entering a brand new market reality. Market Tantrum ➔ Fed "Pleases" the Market ➔ Excess Liquidity (QE) ➔ Runaway Inflation ➔ Asset Bubble ➔ Forced Aggressive Hikes ➔ Bubble Bursts 💥 When a Fed Chair constantly moves to please the market by pumping liquidity (free money) at the first sign of trouble, it creates a dangerous chain reaction.  Under the old way of doing things, when the Fed pleased the market, it caused all stocks to rise indiscriminately. That wasn't because the companies were suddenly more productive or profitable—it was just massive inflation inflating asset prices. It was a "rising tide" made of paper money. Warsh’s refusal to spoon-feed Wall Street means a stock won’t rise just becaus

I feel the U.S. dollar will strengthen as the U.S. economy continues to perform well. Inflation could remain subdued if additional oil supply from Venezuela and Iran returns to global markets. With the U.S. also becoming a major exporter of oil and natural gas, a stronger energy position may further support the dollar. In addition, record profits and massive capital spending by U.S. AI companies, coupled with a relatively low unemployment rate and the absence of quantitative easing (QE), provide further support for the U.S. economy and the dollar. AI investment is increasingly becoming a major driver of economic growth and corporate earnings. My view is that the U.S. dollar will rise while Treasury yields gradually decline. The Federal Reserve may eventually lower interest rates (my own op

The conflict involving Iran has become one of the most important drivers of global markets this year, with oil prices sitting at the centre of the story. 🛢️ Why Oil Matters [USD][USD][USD] Iran sits near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries around 20% of the world's oil supply. Any threat to this route immediately raises concerns about supply disruptions, causing oil prices to spike. During periods of heightened conflict: ✅ Oil prices surged as traders priced in supply risks. ✅ Energy stocks outperformed. ✅ Inflation concerns increased. ✅ Broader stock markets faced pressure. As tensions have recently eased: ✅ Oil prices have pulled back. ✅ Inflation fears have softened. ✅ Technology and growth stocks have rallied. ✅ Investors have returned to risk assets. 🚀 Winners

🌟🌟 Artificial Intelligence has created unprecedented market value but the window for trading on pure hype is slamming shut.  The core question haunting the market is whether actual commercial adoption can grow fast enough to sustain today's sky high tech stock valuations. Building AI infrastructure is brutally capital intensive.  Companies are discovering that deploying AI models involves immense energy consumption & massive cloud spending. Nonetheless there are 3 tech stocks that can withstand this volatility: $Alphabet(GOOG)$ self funds its massive USD 175 billion Capex entirely out of its own operations, carrying neglible debt exposure. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has an unrivalled monopoly in the

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