$Intel(INTC)$ Intel at US$110 feels like a narrative shift, not merely a short squeeze. Three things make this turnaround different: 1. Foundry credibility, especially if Apple is genuinely evaluating Intel as a manufacturing partner. That is a major trust signal. 2. Strategic ecosystem relevance, with involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab consortium. 3. CPU execution improving, giving Intel a healthier core business while foundry scales. But caution: Foundry remains capital intensive, margins are still rebuilding, and execution risk is high. My take: • Below US$80 was deep value • US$110 is re-rating territory • US$140 to US$160 possible if foundry wins are confirmed Did investors sell too early? Only if Intel truly becomes a trusted foundry,
Micron Technology and SanDisk are riding a real structural cycle, not a typical memory bounce. AI servers are massively increasing HBM, DRAM and NAND intensity per rack, while supply remains tight. My view on the memory supercycle: • Still early-mid innings, not peak euphoria • 2027 supply response is the key risk • Until then, pricing power stays with suppliers Can Micron hit US$1,000? Possible, but aggressive. • Base case: US$750 to US$850 • Bull case: US$1,000+ if HBM shortages persist and margins keep expanding • Risk: Samsung / SK Hynix ramps faster than expected, compressing ASPs Bottom line: AI needs compute, but compute needs memory first. That makes memory the hottest picks-and-shovels trade in AI infrastructure today.
Advanced Micro Devices delivered a genuine blowout quarter, not a one-off headline beat. Data centre revenue rose 57% YoY to US$5.8B, with strong GPU and EPYC demand, and Q2 guidance also topped estimates. That suggests momentum is real, not accounting optics. Can AMD take share from Nvidia? Yes, but mainly in inference, not core frontier training. Nvidia’s moat remains software, ecosystem and scale. AMD’s opening is hyperscalers wanting a multi-vendor stack to reduce dependence on one supplier. Buy above US$400? At this level, easy money is gone. Valuation is rich. But if AMD executes, US$500 to US$550 is achievable. If growth cools, a sharp pullback is possible. My view: • Long term bullish • Near term overheated • Best strategy: buy dips, not chase spikes AMD is shifting from “alt
Advanced Micro Devices in the inference AI era is no longer just a GPU story. It is positioned across CPU + GPU + adaptive compute, which gives it broader exposure. My fair value view: • Base: US$450 to US$520 • Bull: US$575+ if MI-series inference demand scales hard • Bear: US$320 to US$360 on valuation reset CPU or memory? Near term: Memory has bigger upside, driven by HBM shortages and pricing power. Medium term: CPU may quietly compound better, because inference needs orchestration, data movement and efficient serving, not just accelerators. My view: Memory = faster upside CPU = steadier upside AMD = sweet spot, as it benefits from both. Bottom line: More AI capex likely lifts both, but memory runs hotter while CPU runs longer.
My take: Bitcoin holding US$80,000 is plausible, but Circle’s rally may be running ahead of fundamentals near term. Bitcoin at US$80K The level matters psychologically. ETF inflows remain supportive, and regulatory clarity is improving. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed US$80K, with momentum traders now watching whether it can hold above that zone for several sessions before calling it a true breakout. If risk sentiment improves further, US$85K to US$90K becomes feasible. Failure to hold US$80K could mean a fast retest lower. Circle Internet Group flywheel Bull case: 1. Higher USDC adoption from clearer rules 2. Higher reserve income while rates remain elevated 3. Network effects via payments, remittance, settlement rails But caution: The CLARITY Act is a double-edged sword. It improves legi
I think the market is still in the middle innings, not late innings, but the easy money phase is likely over. Why HBM can keep running 1. Structural undersupply Micron expects both DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight beyond 2026, while its HBM capacity is effectively sold out under long-term agreements. 2. HBM crowds out conventional DRAM HBM uses far more wafer capacity and advanced packaging. As Samsung, SK hynix and Micron Technology prioritise HBM, standard DRAM/NAND supply tightens, lifting pricing across the stack. This is why even storage names like SanDisk are rerating. 3. Inference is the second wave Training drove HBM first. Inference clusters, edge AI, AI PCs and memory-rich architectures could extend demand for years. Micron’s CEO calling AI “early innings” is prob
My read: bullish long term, cautious near term on Advanced Micro Devices. What must AMD prove tonight 1. MI300X / MI350 ramp is real revenue, not pipeline talk. 2. Data centre becomes the core engine, not merely a supporting segment. Street expects roughly US$5.6B data centre revenue, already over half of group sales. 3. Guidance uplift. At current valuation, a beat alone may not suffice. 4. Supply confidence at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, because capacity constraints remain a market worry. Risk AMD has rallied hard into earnings. Options imply about an 8% move either way. Expectations are elevated, so even a good quarter could become sell the news if guidance is merely in line. My positioning Before earnings: Hold / trim into strength, avoid chasing. If s
My take on post-earnings rally odds: 1) Amazon.com, best setup. AWS has the clearest path from AI capex to revenue. If AWS growth prints >30% and backlog conversion accelerates, upside remains. UBS’s +38% FY26 is bold, but plausible if enterprise AI demand inflects sharply. 2) Microsoft, highest upside and risk. If Azure slows by 4pp, the bear case bites fast. Capex is huge, so revenue acceleration must visibly follow. 3) Alphabet, strong fundamentals, but expectations are stretched. Anything short of near-perfect execution risks downside. 4) Apple, steady but least catalyst-rich. Expect Services, China recovery, and measured AI messaging under John Ternus, rather than a major hardware surprise. Most likely rally: Amazon. Most fragile: Google. Biggest swing factor: Azure growth.
Twilio’s blowout quarter is a reminder that AI winners are not only chipmakers. Application-layer and workflow-layer beneficiaries are beginning to re-rate. For Palantir Technologies, next Monday is important. What matters most: • AIP conversion rate, pilots turning into scaled contracts • Commercial customer growth, not just government wins • Average contract size, proof AI spend is expanding wallet share • Operating margin, showing AI growth is profitable growth Bull case: If Palantir shows AIP is becoming embedded enterprise infrastructure, markets may start viewing PLTR as an AI operating system / agent platform, closer in narrative to enterprise software leaders rather than a defence analytics name. That could spark a sharp rerating. Risk: Valuation remains rich. Good numbers may stil
Advanced Micro Devices is approaching a pivotal print. Bull case: • MI300X / MI350 revenue guidance could confirm AMD is becoming a genuine second source for AI compute, not merely a niche alternative to NVIDIA. • If management signals sustained hyperscaler adoption, the market may start valuing AMD more like an AI infrastructure compounder than a cyclical chipmaker. • Commercial traction, including ecosystem monetisation, strengthens the narrative that AMD’s AI stack is broadening. Risk case: • Expectations are elevated. A beat may already be priced in. • Hyperscaler in-house silicon caps long-term upside multiple expansion. • Gross margin guidance matters. Strong revenue with weaker profitability could trigger a classic sell-the-news move. My view: Near term, sell-the-news risk is real,