To The Moon

A) Mega-cap tech & cloud (AMZN). AI spending is no longer just a story. Microsoft, Amazon and OpenAI have demonstrated that enterprise demand is translating into real revenue growth. As long as cloud providers continue signing multi-year AI contracts, earnings should support elevated valuations. If I had to buy one name from the list today, it would be Amazon. AWS remains a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure demand, while its retail and advertising businesses provide diversification that many pure AI plays lack. I believe the AI capex rally still has legs, but I would expect periodic 10% to 15% pullbacks. Higher spending alone is no longer enough. Companies now need to prove that every additional dollar of capex generates accelerating revenue, margins and cash flow. Those that do sh

Supply-side pricing can persist longer than many expect, but it rarely lasts indefinitely. Today's backdrop is supportive: Apple and Amazon have confirmed tighter memory supply and rising costs, suggesting demand remains strong. AI infrastructure continues to consume large amounts of NAND for storage, supporting enterprise demand. Manufacturers have been more disciplined with capacity additions than in previous cycles, reducing the risk of immediate oversupply. However, the market will be looking beyond this quarter. Investors will focus on: Management's pricing outlook for the next two to four quarters. Customer inventory levels. Capacity expansion plans and whether new supply will outpace demand. Gross margin guidance, which is often the clearest indicator of pricing power. My expectatio

In the very short term, sellers usually move first. The earnings report removed one uncertainty, but Thursday's lock-up expiry introduces a more immediate one: potential supply. Not every insider will sell, but markets often price in the possibility before knowing the actual amount. Three scenarios are worth watching: Bullish: Insider selling is limited, demand absorbs the new shares, and the post-earnings drop becomes a buying opportunity. That would signal strong institutional conviction. Base case: Initial selling creates volatility for several sessions before the stock finds equilibrium as the market digests the additional float. Bearish: Heavy insider sales reinforce concerns over elevated AI capex and valuation, triggering further profit-taking. The Nvidia purchase commitment is a do

Once the short squeeze fades, the share price has to be supported by fundamentals rather than forced buying. For Palantir, the key questions are: Can 90%+ revenue growth remain elevated, especially in commercial AI? Can operating margins and free cash flow continue expanding? Can management justify its premium valuation through sustained execution? If growth remains exceptional, investors may be willing to support today's valuation. If growth normalises while expectations stay sky high, multiple compression could outweigh earnings gains. Snap's rally is more fragile. Improving losses and revenue are encouraging, but it still needs to demonstrate durable profitability and stronger advertising growth. Ultimately, short covering accelerates a rally, but it does not create lasting value. Once

I lean towards measured dip-buying rather than chasing momentum. The recent flows suggest institutions are selectively rotating back into Al leaders as earnings increasingly validate the monetisation story. However, this is not a broad "risk-on" environment. Valuations are elevated, capex remains enormous, and expectations are high. Any disappointment in guidance, margins, or Al demand could trigger sharp pullbacks. I'd focus on companies showing both accelerating revenue and improving free cash flow instead of buying the entire sector. If this is the start of a new leg higher, there will still be opportunities. If it proves to be an earnings-driven trap, disciplined position sizing and staggered entries will matter more than trying to time the exact bottom.

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  I would be cautious about calling either a durable base or the cycle top based on one day's events. Amazon's move above US$3 trillion reflects improving confidence that AI investment is producing durable cloud demand. Multi-year AI infrastructure contracts improve revenue visibility, which justifies higher valuations if execution continues. Microsoft's and Google's gains reinforce that this is an industry-wide repricing rather than an Amazon-only story. Bezos' planned sale, however, should be interpreted carefully. Founders frequently sell under pre-arranged plans for diversification, liquidity, philanthropy, or tax planning. A multi-billion-dollar sale is not, by itself, evidence that management believes the stock has pea

The key variable is probably how much supply actually reaches the market, not simply that shares become eligible for sale. If SpaceX delivers strong results, retail investors may chase the earnings momentum. However, insiders and employees often have concentrated wealth tied to their employer. Even if they remain bullish, many will diversify once the lock-up permits it. That does not necessarily signal a lack of confidence. A roughly US$100 billion unlock is substantial. Even if only a small fraction is sold, it could temporarily outweigh incremental retail demand and create volatility. The sequence to watch is: Strong results + light insider selling: Bullish, suggesting confidence and limited supply pressure. Strong results + heavy insider selling: Stock could struggle despite good fundam

It is more likely the latter: two experienced investors managing risk, rather than definitive proof of an AI software inflection. Palantir's results were undeniably strong. Nearly doubling revenue, rapid commercial growth, and expanding profitability strengthen the case that enterprise AI spending is translating into real software revenue, not just infrastructure investment. Snap's results also suggest digital advertising remains resilient. However, Burry reducing a short is not necessarily a bullish call. It can simply reflect risk management after a sharp move. Likewise, Duan Yongping selling puts is a disciplined way to accumulate shares at lower effective prices, not an outright bet that the stock must surge. The bigger confirmation will come if other AI software firms also deliver acc

The narratives are not contradictory. They reflect different parts of the tech ecosystem. AI monetisation from OpenAI and Microsoft shows enterprise AI demand is becoming real revenue, supporting continued cloud and AI investment. That helps justify elevated valuations, but it cannot fully offset higher interest rates, which compress valuation multiples by raising discount rates. The key question remains whether AI revenue, margins and free cash flow are growing faster than AI spending. Qualcomm's cautious outlook also does not necessarily signal weakening iPhone demand. It reflects Apple shifting to in-house modem chips, higher memory costs and Qualcomm's changing revenue mix. Apple still expects solid iPhone growth, although supply constraints may limit near-term results. Bottom line: E

The rally looks like more than just a short squeeze, but it is probably not yet a clean trend restart. Samsung's strong profit rebound supports the idea that the memory cycle is improving, while Apple and Amazon both highlighting rising memory costs and tight supply suggests demand, especially for AI-related DRAM and HBM, remains robust. That is a fundamentally supportive signal. However, gains of 18% to 26% in a single session also point to heavy short covering after an extremely oversold period. Traders who had bet on a cycle peak were forced to unwind positions, magnifying the move. The key test now is whether: Memory contract prices continue rising over the next few months. HBM demand remains strong without weakness spreading to conventional DRAM and NAND. Upcoming earnings and guidanc