My fair value view:
• Base: US$450 to US$520
• Bull: US$575+ if MI-series inference demand scales hard
• Bear: US$320 to US$360 on valuation reset
CPU or memory?
Near term: Memory has bigger upside, driven by HBM shortages and pricing power.
Medium term: CPU may quietly compound better, because inference needs orchestration, data movement and efficient serving, not just accelerators.
My view:
Memory = faster upside
CPU = steadier upside
AMD = sweet spot, as it benefits from both.
Bottom line: More AI capex likely lifts both, but memory runs hotter while CPU runs longer.
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