To The Moon

I would not treat Trump’s portfolio as a signal. With thousands of trades, it reflects high turnover and mandate-driven execution, not conviction. The hardware tilt is directionally right but late. AI bottlenecks still sit in chips and networking, benefiting names like NVIDIA and Broadcom. However, much of that upside is already priced in. On Morgan Stanley SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: earnings growth is real, but expectations are stretched. View: Not a full bubble yet Early excess forming Upside remains but fragile Focus on selectivity, not broad chasing.

The rally is narrow but not irrational. A few leaders, especially NVIDIA and peers, are carrying index performance because they sit at the centre of real earnings growth, not just narrative. Mallouk’s point has merit. The chip trade is still supported by genuine demand: hyperscaler capex, inference scaling, and supply constraints across GPUs, memory, and networking. That gives semis stronger near-term visibility than most sectors. But the risk is concentration and expectations. When a small group drives the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the market becomes fragile. Any disappointment, even a “good but not great” quarter, can trigger outsized reactions. So I would frame it this way: Trend: still bullish, backed by earnings Structure: increasingly fragile Behaviour: late-cycle characteris

I would not chase aggressively at these levels. NVIDIA is still fundamentally dominant, but the setup into earnings is becoming dangerously consensus-heavy. The bull case is obvious: Blackwell demand remains extreme, inference demand is accelerating, and Wall Street keeps lifting targets toward $300+. Analysts expect roughly $78-79B revenue with another major beat likely.  But expectations are now almost perfection-priced. NVDA has rallied ~20% in a month into earnings, and markets are already pricing a very high probability of a beat.  My base case: Earnings likely beat Guidance likely strong Initial reaction could still be volatile or even “sell the news” $235 is psychologically important. A clean hold probably opens $250 quickly due to momentum and options positioning. But if

I would not treat that portfolio as a directional signal. ~3,600 trades in a quarter points to high-turnover, mandate-driven execution, not conviction. At that frequency, you are seeing liquidity management, tax positioning, and model rebalancing. Trying to “follow” or “fade” it is essentially noise trading. The hardware tilt itself is not controversial. NVIDIA, Broadcom, and SanDisk sit at real AI bottlenecks, so earnings visibility is stronger than most software names today. But the key point is timing. That trade worked best 12–18 months ago when supply constraints were underpriced. Now, parts of hardware are priced for sustained scarcity and flawless demand. So: Do not follow the disclosure mechanically Do not reflexively fade it either Use it as confirmation of where capital is cluste

Trump’s “rotation” is not a clean signal. Disclosures are lagged, partial, and likely managed by advisors, so treating them as a trading edge is unreliable. The hardware tilt does reflect reality: AI bottlenecks sit in GPUs, memory, power, and networking. That is where pricing power is strongest today. Software monetisation is lagging as enterprises still test ROI. But following that blindly now is late-cycle behaviour. Much of hardware is already priced for near-perfect demand. On SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: the EPS growth story is real, but expectations are stretched. At these valuations, markets need sustained high growth with minimal disruption. Base case: not an immediate bubble pop, but conditions are forming. Upside remains, downside risk is asymmetric. Selectivity matters more th

I read it as tone improvement, not policy shift. At best, the visit delivers: supply chain stability language clearer licensing for “China-compliant” chips from NVIDIA But not: relaxation on leading-edge AI exports meaningful reopening of China revenue at scale So this is friction reduction, not a chip policy win. For NVDA: +2.2% pre-market + $315 PTs = expectations already elevated Earnings risk is asymmetric: strong beat → limited upside; any miss → sharp pullback “Buy the rumour, sell the news” is plausible. A true second leg higher needs actual policy text change, not delegation optics. Base case: Trip: positive headlines, limited substance Earnings: strong but high bar Positioning: avoid chasing, manage risk into event

The market reaction is telling you something important: symbolism has been priced in, policy change has not. NVIDIA having Jensen Huang at the table matters, but only at the margin. It shifts the agenda, not the constraints. Here is how I would frame it. What his presence can realistically deliver It elevates AI chips from a regulatory issue to a trade negotiation variable. That alone is progress. It increases the probability of incremental concessions: slightly relaxed thresholds, licensing clarity, or tacit tolerance for “China-compliant” SKUs. It gives policymakers better visibility into industry consequences, especially on supply chains and US firms’ competitiveness. What it is unlikely to change Core export controls are driven by national security, not trade balance. That sits above a

I think the market is treating Alibaba Group less like an e-commerce company now and more like a “China AI infrastructure + sovereign cloud” proxy. That is the real rerating driver. The bullish case is not hard to understand: Cloud revenue +38% AI-related revenue still growing triple digits Management saying AI products are already ~30% of external cloud revenue and could exceed 50% within a year “No GPU sits idle” implies utilisation is extremely high, which matters because idle GPUs destroy ROIC in AI infrastructure businesses  But the market is also glossing over something important: operational profitability is ugly right now. Adjusted net income collapsing toward near-zero while capex explodes tells you Alibaba is still in the “build first, monetise later” phase.  The key qu

If you strip away the optics, the sequencing usually follows what can be signed quickly versus what requires regulatory clearance or political capital. 1) BA / GE – most immediate (highest probability) Aircraft orders are the cleanest “headline deliverable”. China can announce bulk orders for Boeing with engines tied to General Electric (GE Aerospace). These deals are politically symbolic, commercially straightforward, and have precedent during state visits. Expect this first, possibly even during the visit. 2) MU / ILMN – medium-term (policy signalling first, fundamentals later) Micron Technology easing is plausible as a goodwill gesture. But actual earnings impact depends on procurement recovery, which takes quarters. For Illumina, any thaw is slower. Genomics sits closer to national sec

Micron Technology (MU) still has a strong structural bull case. HBM is effectively sold out into 2026–2027, hyperscaler AI capex remains aggressive, and memory is shifting from “commodity” toward strategic infrastructure. That is why analysts are talking about a “virtuous cycle” instead of a normal DRAM boom-bust phase.  But after a near-parabolic move toward $800, risk/reward is no longer clean. Options markets are already pricing large swings, and psychologically round numbers often attract profit-taking.  Personally: Long-term investor → scaling in slowly still makes sense. Short-term trader → chasing here feels late unless momentum stays extreme. $770 support is more attractive because it gives better downside control while still respecting the AI memory thesis. If MU loses t