I would not chase aggressively at these levels. NVIDIA is still fundamentally dominant, but the setup into earnings is becoming dangerously consensus-heavy.
The bull case is obvious: Blackwell demand remains extreme, inference demand is accelerating, and Wall Street keeps lifting targets toward $300+. Analysts expect roughly $78-79B revenue with another major beat likely.
But expectations are now almost perfection-priced. NVDA has rallied ~20% in a month into earnings, and markets are already pricing a very high probability of a beat.
My base case:
Earnings likely beat
Guidance likely strong
Initial reaction could still be volatile or even “sell the news”
$235 is psychologically important. A clean hold probably opens $250 quickly due to momentum and options positioning. But if earnings/guidance are merely “great” instead of “spectacular,” a sharp pullback toward $215-220 would not surprise me.
So personally:
Long term: still bullish
Short term: prefer adding on weakness rather than chasing vertical momentum into print.
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