Investors are selling off Semis before AVGO earnings?

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JacksNiffler
03-06

Several of today's semiconductor earnings reports show that the market has become more demanding of semiconductor companies, and some potential problems can be seen in the $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ earnings report:

  • Excellent performance in the current quarter, and guidance exceeded expectations

  • Too single source of incremental volume: while AI drives certainty, weakness across the board except for data centers, e.g., enterprise networking revenue of $171m (-35% yoy), carrier infrastructure of $106m (-38% yoy), consumer electronics of $89m (-38% yoy)

  • Rising inventory days: current inventory levels can support 2-3Q demand, if AI order growth slows it will trigger inventory impairment risk;

  • The market previously expected too high, has overdrawn the positive.

The 14% after-hours plunge is a shift in sentiment.

  • Investors have now become quite sensitive and relatively "nervous" about AI-related stocks;

  • Hedge funds are also looking for any reason to reduce their exposure and positions in AI, hardware, optics, and other areas.

This follows similar problems with similar semiconductor companies. $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$

Right now it's obviously not good news for $Broadcom(AVGO)$ either, after all he was the first to start hyping the ASIC chip concept.

For AVGO, there's even more uncertainty:

  • Highly rely on $Apple(AAPL)$ and China, coupled with new tariffs and export controls, poses significant risks to future revenues.

  • Despite strong EPS and revenue expectations, potential cancellations of key contracts and geopolitical retaliation could lead to a 30% drop in share price.

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