Core PCE, Jobs data and Consumer confidence - Economic Calendar for week 28Apr25

KYHBKO
04-27

Public Holidays

Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on 1st May to celebrate Labour Day. China is closed on 1st & 2nd May as they celebrate Labour Day.

America does not have any public holidays in the coming week.

Economic Calendar (28Apr25)

Notable Highlights

  • Core PCE Price Index (Mar) forecast shows inflation cooling, with YoY at 2.9% (down from 3.4%) and MoM at 0.19% (down from 0.44%), suggesting easing inflationary pressures. This should be the most watched economic data that has implications for the interest rate.

  • CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) forecast at 88.5 (below the last reading of 92.9) indicates weaker consumer sentiment, which could signal reduced spending and economic slowdown.

  • GDP (QoQ, Q1) forecast at 0.4% (well below the previous 2.4%) signals a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth.

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) forecast at 50.7 (up from 50.2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) forecast at 47.9 (up from 40.0) show mixed signals, with S&P indicating slight expansion and ISM still in contraction. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) forecast at 69.4 (up significantly) points to rising input costs, which could fuel inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMI (Apr) forecast at 50.5 shows Chinese manufacturing activity having modest growth. Chicago PMI (Apr) forecast at 47.8 (down from 50.5) indicates contraction in regional manufacturing activity.

  • JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) forecast at 7.568M (below the previous 7.598M) suggests a slight cooling in labour demand, potentially reflecting a softening job market. Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) forecast at 130K (down sharply from 228K) and Unemployment Rate (Apr) steady at 4.2% suggest a weakening U.S. labor market, with slower job growth but no immediate spike in unemployment. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) forecast at 155K (down from 198K) suggests slower private-sector hiring in the U.S.

  • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM, Apr) forecast holds steady at 0.3% indicating stable wage growth, which may not add significant inflationary pressure.

  • Initial jobless claims will be announced. This weekly report tracks the number of new unemployment claims, serving as a leading indicator of labor market health. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

  • Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. This event tracks the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, an indicator of oil supply and demand, which can impact oil prices and energy markets. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.

@TigerStars

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