The signal that Nvidia may resume H200 sales to China is meaningful because China once accounted for roughly 20 to 25 percent of its data-centre demand. The export restrictions created a structural gap in Nvidia’s growth trajectory, and the company’s attempts to replace that revenue with downgraded “China-compliant” chips had limited success. If policy genuinely shifts, even a partial reopening of the China market could stabilise Nvidia’s forward revenue expectations.

That said, one must separate headline reaction from actual earnings impact. Approvals, licensing terms and volume caps are still unknown. China demand is strong, but the competitive landscape has evolved, with local accelerators and Huawei’s Ascend series gaining traction while Nvidia was restricted. The recovery will not be instantaneous.

As for the recent share-price decline, policy relief can certainly short-circuit the negative momentum. Nvidia’s pullback has been driven by valuation pressure, rotation into laggards and concerns about market-share erosion from TPUs, ASICs and new competitors. A reinstated China channel improves sentiment and removes one of the key bearish narratives.

In short, this development can support a rebound, but it is unlikely to be the sole catalyst for a sustained rally. The next leg higher still depends on demand visibility, margins on China shipments and the competitive response across the AI-chip ecosystem.