Lanceljx
04-05 12:14

The question now is really about oil, war risk, and market timing, so we need to separate two things:


1. Will oil make new highs



2. Whether this is a good time to buy stocks





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Will oil set a new high?


Short answer: Yes, there is a real possibility, but it depends on whether energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is affected.


Historically, oil spikes when:


Supply disruption


Tanker routes blocked


Energy infrastructure bombed


War spreads regionally



If Iran oil exports or Strait of Hormuz shipping is disrupted:


Oil can spike very fast


Prices can overshoot fundamentals


Then crash later when fear fades



Rough scenario framework:


No supply disruption → Oil $95–110


Limited infrastructure strikes → $110–130


Strait of Hormuz disruption → $130–180 spike possible


Full regional war → temporary spike above previous highs



So new highs are possible but event-driven, not purely economic.



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Good chance to add stocks or not?


This is the more important question.


Market behaviour during geopolitical shocks is usually:


Stage Market Behaviour


Shock news Stocks drop

Oil spike Inflation fear

Fed delay rate cuts Market weak

War stabilises Market recovers

Oil falls Big rally



So typically: War headlines → short term bearish → medium term bullish after panic



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What Buffett would probably do


Buffett does not buy during uncertainty.

He buys when panic selling happens.


So the key level is not oil.

The key is S&P drawdown.


Rough guide:


S&P -10% → normal correction


S&P -15% → starting to be interesting


S&P -20% → good buying zone


S&P -30% → aggressive buying


S&P -40% → generational buying




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My strategic view (very important)


Right now is probably: Too early to go all in, but not wrong to start scaling in.


Better strategy than guessing bottom:


Keep cash


Add slowly on big red days


Do not chase green days


Buy fear, not rallies



Example approach:


Add 20% now


Add 20% if market drops another 5–7%


Add 30% if correction hits 15–20%


Keep last 30% for panic selloff




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Big picture


The biggest mistake investors make: They wait for good news to buy. But markets bottom when news is worst.


So the real question is not:


> Will oil go higher?




The real question is:


> Will fear get worse before it gets better?




If yes, then better prices are likely still ahead.

US-Iran Conflict | 10-Point Counter-Response, Is the War Coming to End?
Iran proposes a 10-point document, centered on three key areas: Permanent End to Hostilities: Rejects short-term arrangements such as 45- or 60-day ceasefires, calling instead for a complete end to hostilities that began in February 2026. Hormuz Strait Security Framework: Proposes establishing a new regional-led security architecture, rather than reverting to pre-war conditions. Economic Compensation & Sanctions Relief: Demands the U.S. immediately lift additional energy sanctions imposed after the outbreak of war and provide compensation for damaged infrastructure.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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