Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

[Miser]  $UOBAM ASEAN(UPD.SI)$  

Market is gonna tank when inflation hits the economy

Oil prices will goes up and this war will comtinue between 6 months to 1 year. Yes price will reach more than 120$

Hormuz Shock: $120 Oil or Strategic Bluff? I’m taking a BULLISH stance on oil — and a BEARISH stance on risk assets like the Nasdaq Composite if escalation holds. This isn’t just geopolitics — it’s a macro regime shift trigger. ⸻ 1. This Isn’t “Tension” — It’s a Supply Chokepoint Event The Strait of Hormuz isn’t symbolic — it’s structural: • ~20% of global oil flows through it • Core artery for Gulf exports • No immediate full-capacity alternative routes 👉 A sustained blockade = instant supply shock, not gradual tightening Markets don’t price that smoothly — they gap to worst-case first ⸻ 2. Why $120 Isn’t Extreme — It’s Logical Oil doesn’t need full disruption to spike. It just needs: • Uncertainty of flow • Insurance + shipping risk premiums • Inventory hoarding behavior In this setup: •

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

Need see what is happening

After a grueling 21-hour negotiation marathon, the U.S. and Iran went from deadlock straight into full breakdown, with President Trump announcing a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has completely shattered the market’s pricing assumptions from the past week. 😤 This aggressive move targets Iran’s oil export lifeline, choking off roughly 20% of global crude flows and instantly reigniting fears of a prolonged supply squeeze that could push WTI and Brent well above $100. The blockade raises the stakes dramatically — will it force a hawkish Fed pivot that resets sky-high Nasdaq valuations, or does Iran’s “time-wasting strategy” crack first before oil hits the $120 threshold? Emerging markets are already feeling the heat, with Asia’s energy importers seeing currency pressure while

The never end war hidden with profit opportunities

💬 After 21 hours of talks collapsing into a full breakdown, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reset every pricing assumption. With oil already surging, the market is now staring at the $120 threshold as the line in the sand. Trump’s “execution strategy” vs. Iran’s “time‑wasting strategy” isn’t just geopolitics — it’s the trigger for whether the Fed is forced into a hawkish pivot that could reset Nasdaq valuations. ✨ My view: If the blockade holds through April, $120 oil is not a question of if but when. The real suspense is who blinks first — Washington or Tehran[Tongue] @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal

Market will go for reset of another 2000 points

The scenario described would be a genuine regime shift for markets, not just another headline shock. The key is to separate first-order (oil) from second-order (policy and valuations) effects. --- 1. Will the Fed be forced into a hawkish pivot? A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil sharply higher, but the Federal Reserve does not react mechanically to commodity spikes. What matters: Is the oil shock persistent or temporary? Does it feed into core inflation and wages? If oil spikes toward $120 but demand weakens simultaneously, the Fed faces a stagflation-lite dilemma, not a clean hawkish pivot. Most likely path: Short term: Fed stays cautious, delays cuts Only pivots hawkish if inflation expectations de-anchor, not just spot oil So a full valuation reset in the Nasdaq Composite

Peace At Last ? Its just as well that there were not too many US economic reports out for the week ending 10 Apr 2026. This is because the Middle East was on the brink of civilization annihilation when Trump almost made good his scarce tactics to level Iran flat. Perhaps it was all the behind the scenes, flurry of activities that helped to successfully brokered the 2-week truce while the tripartite of US, Pakistan and Iran try to work out a lasting peace proposal acceptable to all parties. It was this “peace” deal that help US market to turnaround for better or almost for worse. This is not even considered a “work-in-progress” as both sides are still searching for the common ground to agree upon. Nevertheless, while the peace deal’s details are being sorted out, US economic reports continu

Ceasefire hopes lift markets and sparked a relief rally. Made some quick profits but have to wait again for buy opportunities with prices up.

Guess at least last for the next one month.

Everyone has benefited from the 2-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The 3 U.S. indexes each jumped more than 2% during Wednesday. However, Iran now accused the U.S. violating the ceasefire agreement. Hormuz is still closed and oil prices rose again. This has sent the stock indexes down now. The present unstable geopolitical environment contributes to much volatility in stock market. It is prudent to invest in defensive stocks such as those in healthcare, utilities and consumer staples. Wish all Tiger friends good luck.🍀

War pushes up defense and material  stocks