US-Iran Conflict | Hormuz Blocked Again, Can Trump Meeting Help Sustain Market Momentum?

Trump said he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks make a “breakthrough,” while a U.S. delegation including JD Vance was reported to be heading to Islamabad on April 20. At the same time, Reuters reported shipping through Hormuz was near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours, and broader markets opened under pressure as oil jumped. So which signal matters more now — diplomacy restarting, or the fact that the world’s key oil chokepoint is still barely moving? Is this 4% oil spike just headline panic, or the start of a deeper risk-off move for equities?

FOMC decision shake or stabilize the market?

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Kevin Warsh and his team decide to maintain rates, which is largely in line with market expectations. However, he did announce that there would be no more forward guidance. This means we will no longer know what will happen at the next fed announcement until it happens.  Think the mag 7 companies didnt like this news and was red for a bit, although they did recover slightly towards closing. As a retail investor, I am not thrilled by the removal of forward guidance as I will be stripped off one financial indicator. However, it is not the end of the world and the investment journey goes on.  To end this post with a classic Trump move, poi
FOMC decision shake or stabilize the market?
avatarPawsAndProfits
06-17 11:34

Tech continue to boom, or doomed heading to FOMC meeting?

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Let’s see how Kevin Warsh is going to handle his first FOMC meeting and announcement. With heated inflation numbers and high expectation that interest rate will remain the same, maybe its already reflected in the stock market, with tech stocks having a sharp correction heading into the close today. Is the conflict between Iran and USA really over? With Israel clearly unhappy with the terms agreed, there might be room for some last minute drama. And who do you think is the real winner out of this peace deal? I personally think its Iran. US wasted so much money and ammunition, ended up still gave in a peace deal that award the US bragging rights an
Tech continue to boom, or doomed heading to FOMC meeting?
avatarDazza2
04-26
The longer the conflict goes on the longer stocks will be unpredictable 
I posted, do I get a reward now
Hopefully the conflict ends soon
avatarAnt84
04-26
Thoughts? What do you think will happen to socks and why?
This feels like a classic case of markets trying to price two completely different outcomes at once. On one hand, the Hormuz disruption is a real macro risk — if flows stay constrained, oil doesn’t just spike short term, it feeds directly into inflation expectations and puts pressure on equities. On the other hand, the willingness to reopen diplomacy suggests this could unwind just as quickly as it escalated. Personally, I think the key signal isn’t the headlines, it’s whether shipping throughput actually improves over the next 24–72 hours. If vessels start moving again, this likely gets faded as a panic spike. But if the choke point remains restricted, the market probably hasn’t fully priced the second-order effects yet. For now, it looks more like headline volatility than a confirmed ris
This feels like a classic case of markets trying to price two completely different outcomes at once. On one hand, the Hormuz disruption is a real macro risk — if flows stay constrained, oil doesn’t just spike short term, it feeds directly into inflation expectations and puts pressure on equities. On the other hand, the willingness to reopen diplomacy suggests this could unwind just as quickly as it escalated. Personally, I think the key signal isn’t the headlines, it’s whether shipping throughput actually improves over the next 24–72 hours. If vessels start moving again, this likely gets faded as a panic spike. But if the choke point remains restricted, the market probably hasn’t fully priced the second-order effects yet. For now, it looks more like headline volatility than a confirmed ris
avatarMathar
04-25
Today iran minsiter went to pakistan. Is this true
Judge actions, not words.
avatarnm
04-25
It’s essentially just a textbook resource grab wrapped in a thin layer of moral posturing—not exactly a masterclass in subtlety.
This is worth your time to read 
I hope no war after all who's it really left for!
It gets better the barrals are gonna get more expensive!
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avatarDamlo_6
04-23
Think this is temporary- prevailing market sentiment would agree with less amplified price impact on oil than previous events
Discuss discussing discuss
avatarLeoT168
04-23
The market wants to believe the worst is over. I am not convinced. While momentum is holding, the Iran situation and Hormuz risk remain unresolved. Markets may be pricing in diplomacy, but the underlying backdrop is still fragile. For me, oil is the key signal. Any sharp move will quickly flow through to inflation, rates and sentiment. This is not a clean risk-on market. It may still move higher, but the upside feels conditional. For now, I would watch oil, shipping activity and political signals closely. This feels like a market supported more by hope than certainty.

📎 HK Macro Review | 20260421

US-Iran Ceasefire: Oil Volatility vs. Risk Appetite Brent surged to ~$99.35/bbl (+63.24% YTD), with back-months pricing a sustained Hormuz disruption premium while front-month prints hover near $94–$95. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ climbed to 19.50 as US equities sold off ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -0.63%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -0.59%). For Hong Kong positioning, this creates a sharpened binary: failure = oil gaps toward $100+, energy names rally ( $CNOOC(00883)$ , $PETROCHINA(00857)$ , $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ reporting Friday) but broad ris
📎 HK Macro Review | 20260421