Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Apr2026)
Market Closures
Hong Kong and China will be closed on Monday, April 6, in observance of the Ching Ming festival. Additionally, Hong Kong will remain closed on Tuesday, April 7, for the Easter public holiday.
Key Economic Releases
The ISM non-manufacturing prices for March will be released, with the previous index reporting 63, indicating clear and strong inflationary growth. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 54.8, suggesting continued expansion in the services sector. However, the elevated prices are likely to be passed on to consumers.
Durable goods orders for February are anticipated to decline by 1.0% month over month, offering insight into current consumption trends.
Bond Market Activity
The upcoming 10-year note auction and 30-year bond auction are significant indicators for the market, reflecting the outlook of the bond market. If these auctions attract continued interest, it is expected that more funds may move from equities into bonds, potentially exerting downward pressure on indexes such as the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones.
Monetary Policy Developments
The FOMC meeting minutes will be released in the coming week, providing important guidance for the market regarding future interest rate decisions in 2026. Potential interest rate reductions could stimulate additional consumption.
Inflation Indicators
The most anticipated news in the coming week is the release of the core PCE price index for February. The forecast for the core PCE price index month over month is 0.4%, while year-over-year growth is projected at 3.0%. If inflation remains persistent, the Federal Reserve may need to reconsider planned interest rate cuts to curb inflation, as it faces the challenge of balancing unemployment and inflation with the primary tool at its disposal—interest rates.
In the same week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, with the year-over-year CPI for March forecasted at 3.4%. This marks a notable increase from the previous figure of 2.4%. The rise in inflation is likely to introduce volatility in the market and may decrease the likelihood of forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Other notable macroeconomic news includes the GDP for Q4, with a forecasted growth rate of 0.7%.
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