FlowState Alpha · 2026/06/22 I. Prior Issue Validation Our June 15 FlowState Alpha called: the peace dividend's effective life is ~48-72 hours; Warsh's June 17 press conference is the rally's "expiry date." Actual results: Jun 15 (Mon): Dow hit intraday record 52,190\* — peace squeeze delivered as expected Jun 17 (Wed) FOMC day: Dow -507 (-0.98%)\*, S&P -1.21%\*, Nasdaq -1.34%\* — the rally reversed precisely on press conference day Of our three scenarios (A dovish 30% / B neutral 45% / C hawkish 25%), the actual outcome fell between A and B: rates unchanged, statement pivoted neutral, no immediate QT, but a Balance Sheet Review Task Force was established signaling clear medium-term intent One-line validation: Our window call was accurate, but Warsh chose a more institutionalized path

I personally think removal of forward guidance kind of level the playing field between the whales and retail investors like us. We do not have sophisticated set ups like institutional investors to capitalize on forward guidance, so without it everyone can only rely on what the market is showing us for the trading day. I think it is too soon to predict regarding rate changes. Yes there is speculation of rate hike in the second half of the year, however why stress about something which might or never even happen? SpaceX. If you are looking to trade it, and have your entry and exit strategies in place, I will say go for it then. But if you are looking to hold it as a long term investment, its advisable to sit on the sidelines and resist from entry right now. Let the dust settle and you wi

$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$   Alan Greenspan, hailed as the greatest Federal Reserve chairman when he retired in 2006 but derided for a severe financial crisis that followed barely two years later, died on Monday aged 100, NBC News reported. Greenspan, who exerted a powerful influence on the U.S. economy during his tenure at the helm of the Fed from August 1987 to January 2006, died at his home from complications of Parkinson’s Disease, NBC reported, citing his wife Andrea Mitchell, who is the outlet's chief Washington correspondent. Greenspan oversaw the second-longest ​economic expansion in U.S. history, an uninterrupted decade of growth from March 1991 to March 2001. His decision to let the economy run -

Controversial as it may seem.

Last Week's Recap 1. Weekly Market Digest: Peace Deal Rally, Warsh's Hawkish Hold, PPI Shocks, Oil Crashes Peace deal — U.S.-Iran peace agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz; NASDAQ +2.43%, S&P 500 +0.93%. Tech/semis surged double-digits; SpaceX ($SPCX) jumped ~20% in its second trading day. Fed debut — Warsh's first FOMC held rates steady but left the door open for late-2026 hikes; press conference spooked markets Wednesday (S&P -1.4%, NASDAQ -1.5%), with a partial Thursday rebound ahead of the holiday weekend. PPI shock — Wholesale prices rose 1.1% MoM, crushing the 0.7% consensus and reigniting inflation fears. Bond swings — 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.48% early week before settling near 4.46%; the 2-year climbed 15bp as markets repriced Fed expectations post-meetin

$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$   $BOCOM INTL(03329)$   BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited will convene its 2026 annual general meeting (AGM) at 3:30 p.m. on 26 June 2026. The meeting will be held simultaneously at Conference Room 1, 9/F, Man Yee Building, 68 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong and via the online platform https://meetings.computershare.com/BOCOMI_2026AGM, enabling shareholders to attend, vote and raise questions in real time. Key resolutions: 1. Financial reporting: Receive and consider the audited consolidated financial statements and directors’ and auditor’s reports for the year ended 31 December 2025. 2. Bo

Fed Chair Warsh’s debut could mark a significant shift in how markets interpret the Federal Reserve’s intentions. For years, investors have relied on the Fed’s well-rehearsed “script” of forward guidance and carefully calibrated messaging. If Warsh adopts a less predictable communication style or places greater emphasis on discretion, markets may face heightened volatility as participants reassess policy signals. While a departure from established norms could improve flexibility in responding to economic shocks, it also risks creating uncertainty and weakening the Fed’s credibility. Ultimately, the success of a new script will depend on whether it enhances clarity or simply leaves markets guessing.

He reopened the review of the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, setting up five working groups. One of them will study whether the balance sheet should eventually shrink closer to pre-2008 levels.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first FOMC appearance this week, and his hawkish tone immediately poured cold water on markets, triggering a sharp repricing across global assets. The policy rate itself did not change. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous 12-0 vote

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So there is a general hawkishness reaction to the latest fed announcement by the new chairman, Kevin Warsh. He announced that there will not be any forward guidance moving forward, and a general consensus that there might be a rate hike leading to second half of the year. The market clearly didnt like his words, and went into slight correction. As a full time trader, killing forward guidance is a significant impact on my trading strategies because now I have one less economic indicator to justify my trades. However, the beauty of being a retail investor with a smaller account size is I could adjust my approach moving forward according to what the

market goes down... then goes back up again.. we buy when it goes down

all good.......................

That is so lame... Inflation is fairly bad, all thanks to the war waged, only to circle back to a peace deal that looks to be an even bigger loss (holy 300 billion reparations??) Then everyone keeps flooding back into USD to capture the expected increase in interest rates that did not happen, yet there's no meltdown (and no, don't tell me that hiccup in equities is significant). Warsh is well and truly the president's lapdog, taking the cop-out of keeping rates steady.

i think so this is a big stocks 

Pull back of SpaceX is expected. With new Fed Chair, there will be higher unpredictability. Expect more risk in more volatile regime.

🌟🌟🌟The era of predictable comforting guidance is over.  They say a new broom sweeps well but Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair has traded the standard broom with a vacuum cleaner as he is aggressively cleaning house. Warsh is laser focused to crush inflation as he reminded the world that inflation has run above the 2% target for 5 straight years. There maybe an interest rate hike later this year as Warsh seems intent on the higher for longer baseline. What should investors do? Buckle up as there will be volatility ahead.  With short term Treasury yields spiking & VIX climbing, the market has to adjust to the reality of an unpredictable hawkish Fed. Nonetheless the good news is that the market will rise over the long term.  My tactical strategy is to continue to dollar cost