Market Master 101 | Howard: Where Do We Stand in 2025?

In his recent memo to Oaktree’s clients, Howard Marks outlined his views on the current high levels of the market. He believes the market has not yet entered a phase of irrational exuberance, but still advises clients to adopt a Level 5 defense (reducing aggressive positions and increasing defensive holdings). What do you think of his views on the valuations of the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500? How is your own portfolio allocated right now? Since the market is at elevated levels, should we be holding some defensive assets?

avatarNamtan
11-19

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global in new generation
avatarSpiders
10-03

Market Master 101 | Howard: Where Do We Stand in 2025?

In his recent memo to Oaktree’s clients, Howard Marks outlined his views on the current high levels of the market. He believes the market has not yet entered a phase of irrational exuberance, but still advises clients to adopt a Level 5 defense—reducing aggressive positions and increasing defensive holdings. When I first read that line, I stopped and let it sink in. Howard isn’t calling for a crash. He isn’t saying the Magnificent 7 are worthless. He’s simply saying: slow down, respect the altitude. And honestly, that’s how I’ve been feeling lately. The Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500: Stretched but Not Broken Let’s start with the obvious question: are the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500 overpriced? On one hand, the Magnificent 7 have been unstoppable. Nvidia generates enormous profits
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Market Master 101 | Howard: Where Do We Stand in 2025?
avatarchandon99
10-02

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avatarBluem
10-02
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  optimistic about ARKK
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avatarAtuatasi
10-01
Perfectionist has been around for years and has already been involved with the whole community of you 
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avatarRainy777
10-01
Big tech P/Es only look reasonable if you don't realise that their revenue increase isnt real. They are forcing the AI companies they invest in to buy their compute and wouldn't have revenue increases without this trick.
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avatarZarkness
09-30
His advice is timely . Very much appreciated and warranted a follow up on personal portfolio. It’s not a big bubble because of AI theme spending and earnings . The danger lies in slowing down of capex and unsustainable growth. The higher it gets , the risk of expectations becomes even higher . Now a lot of earnings expectations are very accommodating in my opinion and are not set on high standards. Observe on once the tides turn and the tune of analysts change and downgrade , u know what is coming . Meanwhile stay happily vested and ride up . ❤️🥰🌹 @MojoStellar @icycrystal @SPACE ROCKET
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avatarSuccess88
09-30
I agreed Market is high now. Diversified is the key. Can invest some in gold. Can also invest some in bigfundr with referral code R80467M. Earn some extra 5.2% interest in one year @Pilates @SR050321 @SPOT_ON @HelenJanet @koolgal @MHh
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avatarCSOP AML
09-30

Singapore Next 50 Index Launch to Boost Focus on Singapore Mid-Cap REITs【CSOP Fixed Income Weekly】

【SRT】 As of 26 Sep 2025 (Fri), while $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined slightly by -0.39% WTD in SGD, it rose 11.38% YTD in SGD. Aside from tailwinds arising from expectations of further Fed rate cuts, the launch of the new iEdge Singapore Next 50 Indices, tracking SGX’s largest non-blue-chip stocks, may boost investor focus on mid-caps like some of the REITs in the CSOP SRT ETF (e.g. CLAS, KREIT, Suntec REIT) S$ SRT 2025 YTD Total Return: +11.38% 【MMF】 Over the week, US treasuries largely traded rangebound as markets digest Fed’s September FOMC meeting. The week also saw robust economic data release (Q2 GDP revised upwards to 3.8%), resilient labour metrics (decline in initial claims to 218k), and PCE inflation measure aligning with ex
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Singapore Next 50 Index Launch to Boost Focus on Singapore Mid-Cap REITs【CSOP Fixed Income Weekly】
avatarLanceljx
09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  Your summary of Marks’s view is essentially correct: he’s warning that valuations are elevated, but he doesn’t (yet) believe we’re in full-blown “irrational exuberance.” Rather, he counsels a more cautious stance — what he calls “Level 5 defense” — i.e. reduce aggressive exposure, rotate toward defensive assets, tighten risk controls. That’s a sensible posture in my view: it’s a midpoint between outright alarm and complacency. Below are my reflections on his stance, some observations on current valuations (especially of the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500), and how I would (and do) position a portfolio in this environment. --- Opinion on Marks’s view & the valuation backdrop Strengths of his approach 1. Avoid
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avatarhpleong
09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  I am sure the comments are true and he means well.  I would suggest go back to fundamentals and do due diligence and research so that you can park your money to places that adds value. Regardless of market situation 
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avatarWeChats
09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$   🧠 Market Master 101: Howard Marks’ “Level 5 Defense” — Wisdom or Warning? 🚀 Introduction – Why Howard Marks Commands Attention When Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, releases a memo, Wall Street stops to read. Warren Buffett himself once said, “When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read.” So when Marks says the market is “not yet irrational, but elevated,” and urges a Level 5 defense, it’s worth pausing. He’s not calling for a crash. He’s telling us: this is not the time for maximum offense. In a world where the Magnificent 7 dominate headlines and the S&P 500 hovers near highs, Marks’ reminder is simple: defense wins games when the field tilts agains
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avatarj islandfund
09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  throw caution to the wind Howard's fear is our opportunity!⭐🐯
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avatarECLC
09-30
Yes, market is at elevated levels and potentially higher means higher risks. It is definitely safer to diversify into some defensive assets.
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avatarSuperDuper1
09-30
Tesla is in way magnificent and the same can be said about Apple, which has a moat but its products have shown little innovation over the years. Nvidia while innovative and innovative and with a strong moat is pushing the AI capex narrative to justify its valuation and is also investing in Open AI so that the latter can buy its chips . This just goes to show how stretched the AI capex narrative is. Some sort of consolidation is due.
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avatarJackosen
09-30
I agreed with his point. As the market keeps going higher but only driven by the top few companies of the SnP 500, it is a worrying sign. Have been balancing my portfolio these few months to have equal weightage of tech , healthcare , energy and precious metals stocks plus bonds, to prepare in the event of market correction.
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avatarBarcode
09-29
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 🔥📈🚀 $SPX Valuations, Bull Market Compression & the Marks of Caution 🚀📈🔥 I’m raising my conviction right here, not because I’m blindly bullish, but because the data demands nuance. This is not irrational exuberance, but it is stretched. Markets are resilient, not euphoric; elevated, not unhinged. And that’s exactly where opportunities live for traders who know how to straddle momentum and macro risk. 📊 4th Strongest Post-Correction Rally in 70 Years Since the April 8 low, the $SPX has surged +33%, beating the post-correction historical average of +27%. According to Fidelity’s latest Cyclical Bull
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avatarMHh
09-29
I agree fully with his views. There is no way around except to agree that valuations of the magnificent 7 and s&p500 are high yet not in irrational exuberance. With expected rate cuts for the rest of the year, that should continue to drive stock prices up. So, I agree with his strategy to reduce aggressive positions and to increase defensive positions. However, I would do this closer to the year end santa rally to try to gain more returns. My portfolio is still heavily on the s&p500. Across the board, it is currently hard to find defensive assets at attractive prices. For now, I would try to take profit at a later time to yield cash so that I can buy during dips. I think from next year onwards, cash might be king when the market corrects or potentially a recession. I would prefer
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avatarxc__
09-29

Marks’ Valuation Alert: Mag 7 at 45x P/E—Time to Defend?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Howard Marks’ latest Oaktree memo cuts through the noise, warning that U.S. stocks are “quite high” by many measures but not yet in irrational exuberance territory. He urges a “Level 5 defense”—trimming aggressive bets and bolstering defensive holdings—as the S&P 500 trades at 21.4x forward earnings and the Magnificent 7 averages 45x. With the S&P 500 at 6,650 and Nasdaq at 22,200, this call raises eyebrows. Do you buy Marks’
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Marks’ Valuation Alert: Mag 7 at 45x P/E—Time to Defend?
avatarShyon
09-29
I think Howard Marks makes a fair point on valuations. The Magnificent 7 deserve premium multiples given their dominance, growth, and profitability, so their P/Es don’t look extreme to me. The bigger concern is the rest of the S&P 500, where the average P/E of 22 is well above historical norms and suggests the market overall is stretched. In my portfolio, I stay diversified with some exposure to quality growth leaders but avoid over-concentration in the mega-caps. I continue dollar-cost averaging in areas I see value, while trimming positions that feel overextended. This keeps me invested but disciplined. With the market at elevated levels, I agree it’s wise to adopt some defense. I’m balancing growth holdings with cash, short-term bonds, and dividend payers, which helps me stay expos
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