On September 26, the WSJ reported that $Electronic Arts(EA)$ is in talks with private equity giants Silver Lake and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), and Affinity Partners—led by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner—to take the company private at a valuation of approximately $50 billion. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is providing over $20 billion in debt financing. Upon news release, EA shares surged 15% to a record high of $193, pushing its market cap close to $48 billion. If finalized, this deal would set a new record for leveraged buyouts (LBOs), presenting both opportunity and challenge for EA shareholders. Negotiations remain in advanced stages but are nearing conclusion.EA, as a top global game publisher, bo

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Howard Marks’ latest Oaktree memo cuts through the noise, warning that U.S. stocks are “quite high” by many measures but not yet in irrational exuberance territory. He urges a “Level 5 defense”—trimming aggressive bets and bolstering defensive holdings—as the S&P 500 trades at 21.4x forward earnings and the Magnificent 7 averages 45x. With the S&P 500 at 6,650 and Nasdaq at 22,200, this call raises eyebrows. Do you buy Marks’

In his recent memo to Oaktree’s clients, Howard Marks outlined his views on the current high levels of the market. He believes the market has not yet entered a phase of irrational exuberance, but still advises clients to adopt a Level 5 defense—reducing aggressive positions and increasing defensive holdings. When I first read that line, I stopped and let it sink in. Howard isn’t calling for a crash. He isn’t saying the Magnificent 7 are worthless. He’s simply saying: slow down, respect the altitude. And honestly, that’s how I’ve been feeling lately. The Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500: Stretched but Not Broken Let’s start with the obvious question: are the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500 overpriced? On one hand, the Magnificent 7 have been unstoppable. Nvidia generates enormous profits

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  Your summary of Marks’s view is essentially correct: he’s warning that valuations are elevated, but he doesn’t (yet) believe we’re in full-blown “irrational exuberance.” Rather, he counsels a more cautious stance — what he calls “Level 5 defense” — i.e. reduce aggressive exposure, rotate toward defensive assets, tighten risk controls. That’s a sensible posture in my view: it’s a midpoint between outright alarm and complacency. Below are my reflections on his stance, some observations on current valuations (especially of the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500), and how I would (and do) position a portfolio in this environment. --- Opinion on Marks’s view & the valuation backdrop Strengths of his approach 1. Avoid

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过去几个月，市场对 AI 算力基础设施的热情只增不减。从 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 的市值突破4万亿，到电力紧缺成为算力扩张的瓶颈，大家都在问：谁来提供AI 时代的“新石油”——电力？ $Fermi LLC(FRMI)$ 横空出世。9 月公司向 SEC 递交了 IPO 申请，计划在纳斯达克上市，发行价区间 18–22 美元，最多融资 5 亿多美元。如果承销商行使绿鞋，规模可能更大。市场传言它的目标估值高达 130 亿美元——要知道，这是一个尚无收入的公司。所以问题来了：Fermi 是一个空中楼阁的 PPT 项目，还是一张高风险高回报的彩票？我们不妨拆开看看。公司故事：不仅是数据中心，更是能源巨兽Fermi 的定位不是一家单纯的数据中心运营商。它想做的是一个 “能源 + 数据中心一体化” 的巨型综合体。公司已经拿下了德州 5,000 多英亩的土地，规划了一个名为 Project Matador 的超大园区。核心理念是：在园区内部建设发电厂（包括天然气、太阳能、电池储能，甚至未来的核电机组），然后“behind-the-meter”直接供电给园区里的数据中心。目标电力容量：11 GW。这是什么概念？差不多能顶得上几个中等国家的总电力负荷。未来，这里将为 AI 超算、云计算企业提供“低碳、稳定、独立于电网”的算力基础设施。一句话：他们不是在建数据中心，而是在建“能源驱动的超级算力新城”。募资与结构：REIT 的外壳，AI 的故事Fermi 的架构比较特别——它选择了 REIT（房地产投资信托） 的路径。这意味着它未来的收入模式，不是卖 GPU，而是靠“租金”——租用机房空间、供电容量。IPO 计划：发行 25,000,000

If we were to comprehend Howard Marks memo to his clients, I think we might want to look at these questions before we can actually see how we can adjust our portfolio. In this article, I will also be sharing on how we would structured scenario map for markets over the next 6–12 months, with probability weights and sector opportunities. Are current markets “irrational” at these levels? Valuations are elevated relative to historical norms (especially in tech/AI), but not across the board. Many cyclical and international markets are still fairly priced. What feels “irrational” often reflects strong liquidity, resilient earnings, and investor positioning rather than pure euphoria. So far, earnings momentum and macro stability are supporting these levels. Will we see another new high? Near-term

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 🔥📈🚀 $SPX Valuations, Bull Market Compression & the Marks of Caution 🚀📈🔥 I’m raising my conviction right here, not because I’m blindly bullish, but because the data demands nuance. This is not irrational exuberance, but it is stretched. Markets are resilient, not euphoric; elevated, not unhinged. And that’s exactly where opportunities live for traders who know how to straddle momentum and macro risk. 📊 4th Strongest Post-Correction Rally in 70 Years Since the April 8 low, the $SPX has surged +33%, beating the post-correction historical average of +27%. According to Fidelity’s latest Cyclical Bull

Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF ( $ARK INNOVATION UCITS ETF(ARKK.UK)$ ) has surged 70% this year to $68, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12.7% rise to 6,650, cementing her reputation as a growth investing icon with $35 billion under management. Her strategy bets big on disruptive tech—AI, biotech, electric vehicles, and blockchain—targeting companies poised to reshape industries. With ARKK up sharply, her long-term vision shines, but the approach’s high volatility and concentrated bets spark debate. Does her growth style hold up? Have her trades paid off? And who truly reigns as the “queen of stocks”—Wood or Nancy Pelosi? Dive into the strategy, weigh the outcomes, and pick your champion in this high-stakes game. Wood’s Innovation Logic: High Risk

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  You’ve posed a very thoughtful set of questions. Below I’ll (a) assess Marks’s views in light of market data and valuation risks, (b) share how I would think about portfolio positioning in a high-valuation regime (as a thought experiment, since I don’t “hold” a portfolio), and (c) give a reasoned view on whether and how one should allocate to defensive assets today. --- Marks’s Views: Strengths, Challenges, and Caveats What Marks Is Saying In his recent memo “The Calculus of Value,” Marks argues that: 1. Valuations are lofty but not yet in full-blown bubble territory. He draws a distinction between “lofty but not nutty” and outright irrational exuberance (i.e. extreme investor psychology).  2. The risk is unev

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$   🧠 Market Master 101: Howard Marks’ “Level 5 Defense” — Wisdom or Warning? 🚀 Introduction – Why Howard Marks Commands Attention When Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, releases a memo, Wall Street stops to read. Warren Buffett himself once said, “When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read.” So when Marks says the market is “not yet irrational, but elevated,” and urges a Level 5 defense, it’s worth pausing. He’s not calling for a crash. He’s telling us: this is not the time for maximum offense. In a world where the Magnificent 7 dominate headlines and the S&P 500 hovers near highs, Marks’ reminder is simple: defense wins games when the field tilts agains

🌟🌟🌟Cathie Wood's ARKK $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  and SPLG $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPLG)$  represent 2 fundamentally different philosophies of investing.  ARKK is built on bold bets while SPLG is built on broad stability. Let's explore what each stands for and why I invest in SPLG.  What Cathie Wood Stands for in ARKK: ARKK is Cathie Wood's flagsh

I think Howard Marks makes a fair point on valuations. The Magnificent 7 deserve premium multiples given their dominance, growth, and profitability, so their P/Es don’t look extreme to me. The bigger concern is the rest of the S&P 500, where the average P/E of 22 is well above historical norms and suggests the market overall is stretched. In my portfolio, I stay diversified with some exposure to quality growth leaders but avoid over-concentration in the mega-caps. I continue dollar-cost averaging in areas I see value, while trimming positions that feel overextended. This keeps me invested but disciplined. With the market at elevated levels, I agree it’s wise to adopt some defense. I’m balancing growth holdings with cash, short-term bonds, and dividend payers, which helps me stay expos

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$   AI-Driven Investment: Cathie Wood’s Strategic Repositioning in Alibaba Cathie Wood’s recent purchase of Alibaba, after a four-year hiatus, signals a fundamental shift in her investment narrative from traditional e-commerce to AI-powered innovation. Key insights from her strategy include: 1. AI as the New Growth Engine Alibaba’s cloud computing unit, Alibaba Cloud, serves as the “compute backbone” for AI models, with its self-developed Tongyi Qianwen model and partnership with Nvidia in physical AI (robotics, autonomous driving) aligning with Wood’s investment thesis in Tesla’s hardware-software integration. The company’s ecosystem of e-commerce, logistics, and finance provides a fert