Long Rally on 2026 | US Market Index Performance $MasterCard(MA)$   $Visa(V)$   $S&P 500(.SPX)$   US market index still have momentum on 2026 and continues movement to get score All time high in next season (Q2 to Q4). Not changes from traditional event in historical performance every 4 years. ■ 2018 - 2019 and  2022 -2023 Gap point from S&P 500 market index  around 600 to 800 point in line position and from US Dollar index 88 to 99 and 99 to 107  ■ all trade market breakout to downtrend after halving bitcoin season (2years) ■ Now prepared to get momentum on 2026 -2027 ■ Digital payment product possible fast&nb

The Gambler’s FallacyThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ delivered gains of 26% in 2023, 25% in 2024, and 18% in 2025. After such a strong run, it is natural for investors to expect weaker returns in 2026. This mindset reflects the classic gambler’s fallacy—the belief that strong past performance must be followed by mean reversion.At this stage of the cycle, bearish arguments also tend to sound more persuasive, and investor sentiment often turns cautious. However, the bull market has continued to show resilience. The ongoing AI-driven transformation remains a powerful structural tailwind and is likely to continue providing support into 2026.2026 RoadmapOur base-case scenario sees the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ending 2026 a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$   🎯 Executive Summary I’m extremely confident this is one of the most structurally important $SPX setups traders will face in early 2026. $SPX has just completed three straight double-digit years, +24% → +23% → +16%. Since 1950, that has occurred only eight times. I’m not reading that as “trend broken.” I’m reading it as “regime sensitivity rising,” where forward returns compress and volatility becomes the tax. I’m also focused on the second layer most traders underweight. 2026 is Year 2 of the presidential cycle, historically the weakest year, lowest average return ar

Macro Theme of the WeekThe minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting released this week show that internal divisions over the policy path have widened significantly. Although the Committee ultimately decided to cut rates in December, the number of dissenting voices reached a level rarely seen.Overall, the minutes had a limited impact on risk assets, serving mainly to reinforce the market’s prior view that rate cuts in Q1 2026 are unlikely.On one hand, most officials supported rate cuts as a precaution against potential weakness in the labor market. On the other hand, some argued for keeping rates unchanged for a period of time, and a small minority believed that conditions in December did not justify a rate cut at all.This internal divergence suggests that the Fed has yet to

I have always believed that Occidental Petroleum—Oxy—has been undervalued, but that belief did not come from a spreadsheet or a model alone. It grew slowly, the way convictions often do, through observation, patience, and a little bit of frustration. Yesterday was one of those days that made that belief feel especially vivid. Occidental (OXY) I was watching the market the way I often do—half out of habit, half out of hope. The earlier part of the day had that familiar energy: oil stocks were green across the board, lifted by headlines about Venezuela. News like that tends to ripple quickly through the energy sector, and sure enough, the usual names were moving. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Hal

Last Week and 2025's Recap1.The US Market - Gained double-digits for a 3rd straight year in 2025Indexes: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded a weekly drop of about 1.03%, with technology stocks showing mixed performance and investor sentiment cautious due to Federal Reserve minutes and geopolitical tensions. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ saw a decline of approximately 0.67%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell by around 1.52%. Triple play: The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ’s 16.39% total return for 2025 marked the third year in a row that the index generated a double-digit gain. The Mag 7 names contributed 42% of the S&P 500’s total return in 2025 and 55% o

The recent US stock market has shownObvious style rotation。 Investors can see a wave of small and mid-cap stocks and growth stocksPhased pull-up, more funds flocked to emerging sectors and theme stocks, pushing the small-cap stock index to rebound rapidly. In contrast, large-cap leading stocks, especially tech giants in the Nasdaq 100, have gained significantlySlowing down or even weakening。 These stocks have driven the index to rise sharply in the past few years, but at the current stage, most leading stocks lack momentum to rise, trading volume has shrunk, and the technical aspect shows high volatility and pressure.On the other hand, from the perspective of interest rate expectations, according to the latest data from the CME "Fed Watch" tool (as of January 7, 2026), the market believes

$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$   $Chevron(CVX)$   $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$   Key Points For Week Beginning 01/05/2026 Oil prices softened as markets weighed political upheaval in Venezuela, with uncertainty over governance and sanctions offset by expectations that any supply recovery would be slow and capital-intensive. Control of Venezuelan crude remains unresolved following Maduro’s arrest, keeping near-term global supply risks contained while reinforcing that meaningful production gains would require years of investment and stability. Asia-Pacific equities a

As we entered the final trading week of US stock market on 29 Dec 2025, and FOMC minutes expected to be released on 30th, will a hawkish minutes add pressure for more corrections on the tech stocks? Can the next Fed Chair with candidates favouring rate cuts are leading the race, could this create a positive impact for the stock market when we start 1st trading day on 02 Jan 2026? In this article, we would like to discuss these two questions — (1) the potential impact of hawkish FOMC minutes on tech stocks around the final US trading week of 2025, and (2) whether the prospects for a more dovish Fed Chair could lift sentiment into the first trading day of 2026. Key Fed & Market Developments Late 2025–Early 2026 Could hawkish FOMC minutes add pressure on tech stocks at year-end? Yes — haw

BofA Data Confirms: January is a “Buy” — But the Real 2026 Alpha is Hidden in the Laggards Welcome to 2026. The holiday liquidity drought is over, the institutional desks are fully manned, and the algorithms are live. If you are looking at the headline data, the setup looks easy. Bank of America’s analysis of 96 years of market history (since 1929) suggests January is one of the most reliable months to be long. But for the active trader on Tiger, simply buying the S&P 500 index and hoping for the best is a "lazy" strategy. The "January Effect" is real, but in the modern era of high-frequency trading, the edge has shifted. It’s no longer about a rising tide lifting all boats—it’s about capital rotation. Here is the deep dive on the data, the mechanics, and how to position for the specif

Here are the key factors that analysts are considering when forming their 2026 outlooks for the S&P 500, U.S. equities, and the AI sector:  1. S&P 500 Outlook  Analysts are uniformly bullish for the S&P 500 in 2026, with a Bloomberg survey indicating an average projected gain of 9%. Some firms, like Oppenheimer and Deutsche Bank, foresee the S&P 500 surpassing 8,000 by the end of 2026, representing an approximate 16% gain. However, others like Stifel Nicolaus anticipate a more modest 1.3% rise to 7,000.  Key factors influencing this outlook include:  Corporate Earnings Growth: Collective earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 16%, from an estimated $268 in 2025 to $310 in 2026. FactSet's average estimate for year-over-ye

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The bulls are charging hard into 2026! With the S&P 500 smashing through to a fresh all-time high close of 6,944.82 and the Dow Jones blasting past 49,000 to settle at 49,462.08, the market's off to a roaring start. 😎 This isn't just noise—it's the classic January effect in action, where a strong first month often signals a blockbuster year ahead. History shows when January wraps up green, the S&P 500 climbs higher 89% of the time, dishing out average gains of 17% with drawdowns averaging just 10.5%. Flip that to a red January, and returns tank to -1.8% on average, with only a 50/50 shot at positivity and steeper drops. Right now, with records tumbling early, the odds are stacking up for a winner. 📈 But let's zoom out:

Looking back at this AI boom, one shift is becoming clear: the market is no longer paying a premium for "talkative AI" alone.Whether it's copywriting, image generation, or more natural LLM interactions, these capabilities are rapidly being treated as baseline features. What truly drives valuation divergence is a more pragmatic question—whether AI can actually "get things done" and be embedded in the real world at scale.And in the U.S. stock market, few institutions have consistently stood at the intersection of technology and capital like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). From cloud computing and mobile internet to this current AI cycle, a16z has always been early to see where the inflection point lies.a16z“ 2026In its newly released Big Ideas 2026 series, a16z doesn't dwell on "how smart AI is.

My Investing Muse (19Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Big Tech is quietly moving jobs overseas. 52% of tech and banking professionals say their companies will increase hiring in India in 2026. 38% say those hires are replacing US jobs. 93% of employees at global firms expect India's headcount to keep expanding. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Uber, eBay… the shift is real. This is not globalisation. It is workforce offshoring in plain sight. - IB Times CITIGROUP Layoffs -- They are done with participation trophies. Jane Fraser: “We are not graded on effort. We are judged on results.” This week: 1,000 jobs cut. Target: 20,000+ total. - X user Amanda Goodall My Final Thoughts War threats against Iran and Greenland remain unresolved despite diplomatic efforts, heightening global con

2026 January Effect: The "Easy Money" Is Gone — Here’s the New Playbook 🚨 As we count down the final hours of 2025, the chatrooms are buzzing with one question: Will we get the "January Effect" to kickstart 2026, or is a rug-pull loading? The setup for 2026 is fundamentally different from the liquidity-fueled rallies of the past. We are transitioning from a market driven by Fed hope to a market that demands earnings reality. While the consensus from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs is "constructive," the underlying data suggests a much trickier battlefield. If you are planning to deploy cash in Week 1, put down the buy button and read this first. 1️⃣ The Bull Case: The "Handover" to Earnings Growth 📈 The strongest argument for a January rally isn't just momentum—it's the fundamental handov

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are converging. We can expect a change from the current bullish trend after the 3 lines have completed their overlap. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

$SLB Ltd(SLB)$   $Halliburton(HAL)$   $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ Bullish All of the oil-services sector players gained due to Venezualan Maduro's capture.  Shares of oil-services companies SLB Ltd and Halliburton also rose. Analysts said those companies could benefit as a result of investment in the country and an increase in Venezuela's oil output. "Even the attempt to restart Venezuela is service-intensive - broken fields, broken pipes, broken facilities. That's why the first trade can be