The Fed decision tonight is important, but the market may already have moved beyond the first question. A 25bp hike is now largely priced in, which means the bigger issue is no longer simply “Will the Fed hike?” but “Does this mark the start of another tightening cycle, or is it just a one-off adjustment?” If the Fed raises rates by 25bp as expected, the target range would move higher again, but the market reaction will likely depend much more on the new dot plot and the tone of the press conference than on the headline rate move itself. The reason expectations shifted so quickly is that the latest inflation data have remained uncomfortable while the labor market has not weakened enough to give the Fed much room to ignore it. CPI and PPI both showed renewed price pressure, while payroll gr
BlackRock and Mastercard Endorse Circle — So Why Is the Stock Still Falling?
Circle fell 6.78% to $80.45 Wednesday, the worst name in the session for a second straight day, on a day of nothing but good news: BlackRock, Mastercard and Visa each disclosed partnerships, and Circle bought cross-border payments firm Tazapay, which handles over $25bn in annualized volume. Three of the biggest names in payments put their logos on the platform and the stock still fell. That gap is the story: an endorsement answers whether the compliance path works, not whether institutional money is allowed down it. Until the rules land, a signed partner is not a flow. Does the model hold up?
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