QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull?

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed down 1.07% Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also retreating as elevated Treasury yields remained the primary headwind for growth stocks; investors shrugged off news of Trump easing Iran sanctions. Session rotation was pronounced — high-beta sectors led by semiconductors bore the brunt as funds locked in tech gains. With yields and the AI thesis in direct conflict, is this tech pullback a healthy rotation — or the first crack in a mid-cycle bull market?

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Tiger_Futures Pro

10-21 20:07

Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit

What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke

Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit

Owen_trading room

10-20 17:55

The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹

English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹

Kristyyy

10-20 22:47

It's been awhile 🥳

Tiger_Futures Captain

10-15

Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges

Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str

Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges

LordJatonyas

10-16

It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.

Tiger_Futures Pro

09-30

Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?

Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?

Tiger_Futures Captain

09-29

Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti

Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉

Tiger_comments

10-04

HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?

HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. $Seagate Technology(STX)$ and $Western Digital(WDC)$ both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W

HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?

Owen_trading room

09-29

It All Comes Down to Rates: Are Hawkish Expectations Overpriced and Treasury Yields Near a Peak?

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

It All Comes Down to Rates: Are Hawkish Expectations Overpriced and Treasury Yields Near a Peak?

MillionaireTiger

09-29

[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?

The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the @mushrooz who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending

[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?

Ivan_Gan

09-28

From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies：What’s Behind My 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return?💵💰

Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio

From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies：What’s Behind My 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return?💵💰

nerdbull1669

09-30

Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market

Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market

Mathematical Money

09-30

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is

苏36

09-29

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ [微笑] QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull? Monday’s pullback in $QQQ is easy to explain: yields are rising, oil is adding to inflation pressure, and investors are taking profits in high-beta tech. But I think the more interesting question is not whether higher yields hurt technology — they obviously do. The real question is whether AI-driven earnings growth is strong enough to absorb the higher cost of capital. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% on Monday. The move came as oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty revived inflation concerns and pushed expectations for further Fed tightening

TigerEvents

09-29

[Predict & Win] Nonfarm Payrolls: Another Fed Hike Ahead?

The September U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a key focus for markets this Friday, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of another rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting has risen to nearly 68%. Employment data could significantly influence expectations for the next policy decision. Meanwhile, higher oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The report will be released on October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET — 8:30 p.m. SGT / 10:30 p.m. AEST. Consensus expectations point to an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls, compar

[Predict & Win] Nonfarm Payrolls: Another Fed Hike Ahead?

Flameless Phoenix

10-01

Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa

Kentzw

09-29

QQQ Is Down, But Is the Real Story Somewhere Else?

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ - The Interesting Part of This Selloff Isn’t the 1% Drop QQQ fell more than 1% on Monday, and the immediate explanation was familiar: Treasury yields are high, growth stocks are expensive, and investors are taking some money off the table. But I think there’s another way to look at it. Instead of asking whether higher yields will “break” the tech bull market, I’m more interested in where the money is going when investors reduce exposure to technology. A 1% decline in QQQ doesn’t necessarily mean investors have suddenly changed their view on technology. It could simply mean the market is becoming more selective. That distinction matters. For a long time, investors could buy growth almost indiscriminately. Strong earnings, AI

QQQ Is Down, But Is the Real Story Somewhere Else?

PawsAndProfits

10-01

Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When

D1ane

09-29

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Down 1%+ — The Bond Market Is Becoming the Bigger Story QQQ dropped 1.07% Monday, but the number I’m watching isn’t the Nasdaq decline. It’s the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield pushed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure. That creates an interesting setup. For months, strong AI spending and earnings growth have helped investors look past higher rates. But when yields keep climbing, the valuation math becomes harder for high-growth stocks. What also caught my attention is that the selling wasn’t uniform. Nvidia gained while several semiconductor names fell sharply, suggesting investors may still be willing to pay for perceived AI leaders even as t

Shyon

09-29

I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. F

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Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. &nbsp; The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. &nbsp; For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","listText":"What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? &nbsp;The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. &nbsp; The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. &nbsp; For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","text":"What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0ff66eda94b7bcb09c401179237f1da"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1597,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":64,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620796428202224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000340","authorId":"9000000000000340","name":"zinglee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000340","authorIdStr":"9000000000000340"},"content":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed.","text":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed.","html":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000725","authorIdStr":"9000000000000725"},"content":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast","text":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast","html":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast"}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620450032124000,"gmtCreate":1792507672116,"gmtModify":1792507675082,"author":{"id":"4101958672487520","authorId":"4101958672487520","name":"Kristyyy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c89834df3539fb2688fa83ad1e85b4c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101958672487520","authorIdStr":"4101958672487520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's been awhile 🥳","listText":"It's been awhile 🥳","text":"It's been awhile 🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647c0181fd8886b013b3e284034a4d23","width":"1080","height":"1440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620450032124000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620394186531120,"gmtCreate":1792490148464,"gmtModify":1792553150865,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹","htmlText":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","listText":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8803409b41da4667e38f59fd73f2831"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0ceff986155dcdc13242007e15082e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b02b2a6513d0a8bf3a4689c039c04316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620394186531120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":619043749847456,"gmtCreate":1792164425190,"gmtModify":1792165131939,"author":{"id":"3578121341898556","authorId":"3578121341898556","name":"LordJatonyas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd9de63c277c4367b754d679364c648","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578121341898556","authorIdStr":"3578121341898556"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","listText":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","text":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/619043749847456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":618659286004176,"gmtCreate":1792066664353,"gmtModify":1792066690482,"author":{"id":"4252736365929692","authorId":"4252736365929692","name":"Tiger_Futures Captain","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c8a93fbb91cb334db806011ca9f202a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4252736365929692","authorIdStr":"4252736365929692"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges","htmlText":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","listText":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","text":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cba166afc168ada012d17f2d4f78021d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/618659286004176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":614922287436336,"gmtCreate":1791109291298,"gmtModify":1791109294536,"author":{"id":"4144888663826802","authorId":"4144888663826802","name":"derickt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39af9fba1b299d25a4c88d224de77ac0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4144888663826802","authorIdStr":"4144888663826802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IREN\">$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ </a>is here to stay&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IREN\">$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ </a>is here to stay&nbsp;","text":"$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ is here to stay","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2f3074df0f74e7691a0d3188cc58c73","width":"1032","height":"1708"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614922287436336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":614872980640336,"gmtCreate":1791097270128,"gmtModify":1791097273110,"author":{"id":"3582029733148232","authorId":"3582029733148232","name":"LiverpoolRed","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3f6d64be1c39dfd245a3348d690b450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582029733148232","authorIdStr":"3582029733148232"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A for the answer","listText":"A for the answer","text":"A for the answer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614872980640336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":614703098732680,"gmtCreate":1791094717763,"gmtModify":1791094783798,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?","htmlText":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STX\">$Seagate Technology(STX)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WDC\">$Western Digital(WDC)$</a> both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","listText":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STX\">$Seagate Technology(STX)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WDC\">$Western Digital(WDC)$</a> both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","text":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. $Seagate Technology(STX)$ and $Western Digital(WDC)$ both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b5bc86eef1b9e23a4a9c5c395344f1c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":410,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614703098732680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"content":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger","text":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger","html":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000339","authorId":"9000000000000339","name":"vippy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000339","authorIdStr":"9000000000000339"},"content":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements.","text":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements.","html":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613951747129864,"gmtCreate":1790871355107,"gmtModify":1790871358244,"author":{"id":"4091884160412060","authorId":"4091884160412060","name":"Aqa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a899a6e247bc68815d3a2da3b82a81a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091884160412060","authorIdStr":"4091884160412060"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Choice B, 100K-200K, which means the U.S. job market still growing, but at a more moderate pace. Thank you &amp; big ‘Like’<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\"> @TigerEvents </a>👍🏻","listText":"Choice B, 100K-200K, which means the U.S. job market still growing, but at a more moderate pace. Thank you &amp; big ‘Like’<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\"> @TigerEvents </a>👍🏻","text":"Choice B, 100K-200K, which means the U.S. job market still growing, but at a more moderate pace. Thank you & big ‘Like’ @TigerEvents 👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a7d4ddbf89af1781575b9eca4362ea77"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613951747129864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613918557069368,"gmtCreate":1790861367303,"gmtModify":1790903832409,"author":{"id":"3587014559420141","authorId":"3587014559420141","name":"Flameless Phoenix","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e64820a51bc95af1d616b3c081af4d0a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587014559420141","authorIdStr":"3587014559420141"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","listText":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","text":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":284,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613918557069368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000558","authorId":"9000000000000558","name":"Dollydolly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000558","authorIdStr":"9000000000000558"},"content":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast","text":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast","html":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613741352665280,"gmtCreate":1790818202444,"gmtModify":1790819519472,"author":{"id":"3569739151630202","authorId":"3569739151630202","name":"PawsAndProfits","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e163d58ec26d1605dd6c781dbdd49f63","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569739151630202","authorIdStr":"3569739151630202"},"themes":[],"title":"Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When","htmlText":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","listText":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","text":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ebf1e0e06b22393b4c5ce58b4915d911","width":"979","height":"513"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5d692c2239b262615bcc5ad25878df5","width":"946","height":"346"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8020addc376ee9378cfc91331c7eb027","width":"972","height":"499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613741352665280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613237563486456,"gmtCreate":1790736931833,"gmtModify":1790749108616,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?","htmlText":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","listText":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","text":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66edc154f98b3e0eb87238daf4240cd8"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d48e660ee5f1955263fa678b4de28ad0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a6154a7f9fb0445f66f2469ca3b0b0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":176,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613237563486456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274808936914","authorId":"3479274808936914","name":"NEXTTOME","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abee7c4586b9b9c43f64b5fd9ad0a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274808936914","authorIdStr":"3479274808936914"},"content":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce","text":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce","html":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce"}],"imageCount":20,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613391549047304,"gmtCreate":1790734587997,"gmtModify":1790738331203,"author":{"id":"4176423247955812","authorId":"4176423247955812","name":"Lanceljx","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09909b81957df6057776741ed24e12fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4176423247955812","authorIdStr":"4176423247955812"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A. Below 100K. My prediction is around 90K jobs added in September. The labour market does not look like it is collapsing, but hiring appears to be cooling despite relatively low layoffs. For the bonus question, I think Treasury yields move first if payrolls significantly beat expectations. A strong jobs print could quickly shift expectations towards tighter Fed policy, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth and tech names, could then come under pressure as higher yields are priced in.","listText":"A. Below 100K. My prediction is around 90K jobs added in September. The labour market does not look like it is collapsing, but hiring appears to be cooling despite relatively low layoffs. For the bonus question, I think Treasury yields move first if payrolls significantly beat expectations. A strong jobs print could quickly shift expectations towards tighter Fed policy, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth and tech names, could then come under pressure as higher yields are priced in.","text":"A. Below 100K. My prediction is around 90K jobs added in September. The labour market does not look like it is collapsing, but hiring appears to be cooling despite relatively low layoffs. For the bonus question, I think Treasury yields move first if payrolls significantly beat expectations. A strong jobs print could quickly shift expectations towards tighter Fed policy, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth and tech names, could then come under pressure as higher yields are priced in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613391549047304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613394623820008,"gmtCreate":1790733462199,"gmtModify":1790763269603,"author":{"id":"3582440396794391","authorId":"3582440396794391","name":"Mathematical Money","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19fb5f267af3ec777384ff2888ed8d90","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582440396794391","authorIdStr":"3582440396794391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","text":"$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613394623820008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000177","authorId":"9000000000000177","name":"jigglyp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81107c0431f248a6c5b526745a8ca6e4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000177","authorIdStr":"9000000000000177"},"content":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner","text":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner","html":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613372117131856,"gmtCreate":1790730848373,"gmtModify":1790763276954,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102123614530830","authorIdStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market","htmlText":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>","listText":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>","text":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fce8a73ff392ac3ccf3d8c64fea4d933","width":"1129","height":"106"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f8992c6658b59f6d636a906a02c58d7","width":"1168","height":"581"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/876347b3549dead115bea60f92c5b4b1","width":"1134","height":"484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613372117131856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000388","authorId":"9000000000000388","name":"joozy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b91d0cbb63ed0ffe6dc3dc19168205d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000388","authorIdStr":"9000000000000388"},"content":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here","text":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here","html":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here"},{"author":{"id":"3574752437126777","authorId":"3574752437126777","name":"1PC","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d93d931cb700e24c910644542320e877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574752437126777","authorIdStr":"3574752437126777"},"content":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000","text":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000","html":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613102164873736,"gmtCreate":1790702709376,"gmtModify":1790702782170,"author":{"id":"4227959130064742","authorId":"4227959130064742","name":"JovyJoseBulos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cda0e13c7db366a202f74cea4762efed","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4227959130064742","authorIdStr":"4227959130064742"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting and should look into it&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting and should look into it&nbsp;","text":"Interesting and should look into it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613102164873736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613007829061768,"gmtCreate":1790680833567,"gmtModify":1790680866770,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?","htmlText":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3567486746230153\">@mushrooz</a> who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","listText":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3567486746230153\">@mushrooz</a> who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","text":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the @mushrooz who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e535358af6aa65fe1a18e0314f999aec","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/788ec0cd0e85522183278db2ff1ab0d3","width":"1440","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14c89d9656aedb9a4698e7996c575947","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":898,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":22,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613007829061768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613006922932704,"gmtCreate":1790680701597,"gmtModify":1790682278784,"author":{"id":"4252736365929692","authorId":"4252736365929692","name":"Tiger_Futures Captain","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c8a93fbb91cb334db806011ca9f202a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4252736365929692","authorIdStr":"4252736365929692"},"themes":[],"title":"Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉","htmlText":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","listText":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","text":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a05974321b8185a0084f5f8b12e988c1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de81bad49e9f6834a41a2189c0559c38"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02ba7c356f95acadf7555cd2d39eb9d8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":920,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":28,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613006922932704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274743772174","authorId":"3479274743772174","name":"thinorfat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b5dd5252a1bca34909f191e8c9ba404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274743772174","authorIdStr":"3479274743772174"},"content":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here.","text":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here.","html":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here."}],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612995201634360,"gmtCreate":1790676537120,"gmtModify":1790678447459,"author":{"id":"3581997167851982","authorId":"3581997167851982","name":"matthew_more","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4566c4167a9a5615aede93850767811","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581997167851982","authorIdStr":"3581997167851982"},"themes":[],"title":"TigerTrade","htmlText":"New Tiger experience, I joined last year at plaza sing and my family have a great time. Early register have good coupons&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/20JNvou\">TigerTrade</a> Welcome to TigerTrade","listText":"New Tiger experience, I joined last year at plaza sing and my family have a great time. Early register have good coupons&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/20JNvou\">TigerTrade</a> Welcome to TigerTrade","text":"New Tiger experience, I joined last year at plaza sing and my family have a great time. Early register have good coupons $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ Find out more here:TigerTrade Welcome to TigerTrade","images":[{"img":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612995201634360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612993091903832,"gmtCreate":1790676037410,"gmtModify":1790676040292,"author":{"id":"4094994247363770","authorId":"4094994247363770","name":"He Man","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab09480e32e1cd9c8d467bf438711ce9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094994247363770","authorIdStr":"4094994247363770"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Guess A. What will the market be if A happen?","listText":"Guess A. What will the market be if A happen?","text":"Guess A. What will the market be if A happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612993091903832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"essenList":[{"id":620796428202224,"gmtCreate":1792584474146,"gmtModify":1792584511508,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Positioning Watch:  US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit","htmlText":"What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? &nbsp;The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. &nbsp; The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. &nbsp; For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","listText":"What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? &nbsp;The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. &nbsp; The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. &nbsp; For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","text":"What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0ff66eda94b7bcb09c401179237f1da"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1597,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":64,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620796428202224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000340","authorId":"9000000000000340","name":"zinglee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000340","authorIdStr":"9000000000000340"},"content":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed.","text":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed.","html":"Need to separate contract buckets too: SPX strength in the micro near-months says fast money covering, while the standard contracts still look way less committed."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000725","authorIdStr":"9000000000000725"},"content":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast","text":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast","html":"Good point on separating flows, but the commercial bucket is messy too. In oil especially, hedge flows can mix with real producer hedging, so reading who actually drives price gets slippery fast"}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620394186531120,"gmtCreate":1792490148464,"gmtModify":1792553150865,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹","htmlText":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","listText":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8803409b41da4667e38f59fd73f2831"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0ceff986155dcdc13242007e15082e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b02b2a6513d0a8bf3a4689c039c04316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620394186531120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620450032124000,"gmtCreate":1792507672116,"gmtModify":1792507675082,"author":{"id":"4101958672487520","authorId":"4101958672487520","name":"Kristyyy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c89834df3539fb2688fa83ad1e85b4c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101958672487520","authorIdStr":"4101958672487520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's been awhile 🥳","listText":"It's been awhile 🥳","text":"It's been awhile 🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647c0181fd8886b013b3e284034a4d23","width":"1080","height":"1440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620450032124000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":618659286004176,"gmtCreate":1792066664353,"gmtModify":1792066690482,"author":{"id":"4252736365929692","authorId":"4252736365929692","name":"Tiger_Futures Captain","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c8a93fbb91cb334db806011ca9f202a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4252736365929692","authorIdStr":"4252736365929692"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges","htmlText":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","listText":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","text":"Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cba166afc168ada012d17f2d4f78021d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/618659286004176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":619043749847456,"gmtCreate":1792164425190,"gmtModify":1792165131939,"author":{"id":"3578121341898556","authorId":"3578121341898556","name":"LordJatonyas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd9de63c277c4367b754d679364c648","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578121341898556","authorIdStr":"3578121341898556"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","listText":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","text":"It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/619043749847456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613237563486456,"gmtCreate":1790736931833,"gmtModify":1790749108616,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?","htmlText":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","listText":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","text":"Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66edc154f98b3e0eb87238daf4240cd8"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d48e660ee5f1955263fa678b4de28ad0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a6154a7f9fb0445f66f2469ca3b0b0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":176,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613237563486456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274808936914","authorId":"3479274808936914","name":"NEXTTOME","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abee7c4586b9b9c43f64b5fd9ad0a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274808936914","authorIdStr":"3479274808936914"},"content":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce","text":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce","html":"CTA positioning can stay underweight longer than people expect, so sub-5% matters less than whether discretionary shorts start covering too. That flow shift is what can give TLT a cleaner bounce"}],"imageCount":20,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613006922932704,"gmtCreate":1790680701597,"gmtModify":1790682278784,"author":{"id":"4252736365929692","authorId":"4252736365929692","name":"Tiger_Futures Captain","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c8a93fbb91cb334db806011ca9f202a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4252736365929692","authorIdStr":"4252736365929692"},"themes":[],"title":"Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉","htmlText":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","listText":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","text":"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a05974321b8185a0084f5f8b12e988c1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de81bad49e9f6834a41a2189c0559c38"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02ba7c356f95acadf7555cd2d39eb9d8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":920,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":28,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613006922932704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274743772174","authorId":"3479274743772174","name":"thinorfat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b5dd5252a1bca34909f191e8c9ba404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274743772174","authorIdStr":"3479274743772174"},"content":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here.","text":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here.","html":"Gold upside with protection after a rate move usually reads like financed conviction, not pure fear. I care more about skew than OI here."}],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":614703098732680,"gmtCreate":1791094717763,"gmtModify":1791094783798,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?","htmlText":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STX\">$Seagate Technology(STX)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WDC\">$Western Digital(WDC)$</a> both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","listText":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STX\">$Seagate Technology(STX)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WDC\">$Western Digital(WDC)$</a> both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","text":"HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. $Seagate Technology(STX)$ and $Western Digital(WDC)$ both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b5bc86eef1b9e23a4a9c5c395344f1c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":410,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614703098732680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"content":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger","text":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger","html":"I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond. Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions. For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing. @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000339","authorId":"9000000000000339","name":"vippy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000339","authorIdStr":"9000000000000339"},"content":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements.","text":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements.","html":"I’d take ④ for now. Toshiba doubling capacity sounds scary, but HDD lines do not scale overnight and the big cloud demand is still tied up in long term agreements."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612969788109280,"gmtCreate":1790671635478,"gmtModify":1790673520242,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"It All Comes Down to Rates: Are Hawkish Expectations Overpriced and Treasury Yields Near a Peak?","htmlText":"English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US2Y.BOND\">$美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US10Y.BOND\">$美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a> I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c","listText":"English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US2Y.BOND\">$美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US10Y.BOND\">$美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a> I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c","text":"English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/367b044ab7c927d888822efd5d556c8b"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/433793aeed0c3aa4825e88148ef90704"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1cfd127b0d4aa6e45d5577c153ba4e94"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":42,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612969788109280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000364","authorId":"9000000000000364","name":"groovix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0965d3709fcccd732467fba87aa4ea6e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000364","authorIdStr":"9000000000000364"},"content":"2007 was the last real 5% break, and SPX was around 17x then versus roughly 21x now. If yields are topping, equities probably have more snapback than gold","text":"2007 was the last real 5% break, and SPX was around 17x then versus roughly 21x now. If yields are topping, equities probably have more snapback than gold","html":"2007 was the last real 5% break, and SPX was around 17x then versus roughly 21x now. If yields are topping, equities probably have more snapback than gold"}],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613007829061768,"gmtCreate":1790680833567,"gmtModify":1790680866770,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?","htmlText":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3567486746230153\">@mushrooz</a> who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","listText":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3567486746230153\">@mushrooz</a> who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","text":"The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the @mushrooz who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e535358af6aa65fe1a18e0314f999aec","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/788ec0cd0e85522183278db2ff1ab0d3","width":"1440","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14c89d9656aedb9a4698e7996c575947","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":898,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":22,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613007829061768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612636767875208,"gmtCreate":1790590242456,"gmtModify":1790590336418,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies：What’s Behind My 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return?💵💰","htmlText":"Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio","listText":"Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio","text":"Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d15923900a9381a8ef8f2672b75be80"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2d534d68d1449451534445b5b7d28d8"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3b949f7bc39df1832ec342577f98edf"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":169,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612636767875208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274748701539","authorId":"3479274748701539","name":"happiness000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2eee07bce87fa1affccdb1a63c8efba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274748701539","authorIdStr":"3479274748701539"},"content":"Direction matters, but execution matters more here. The liquidity gap between NQ and MNQ can change the whole PnL path, especially when volatility picks up","text":"Direction matters, but execution matters more here. The liquidity gap between NQ and MNQ can change the whole PnL path, especially when volatility picks up","html":"Direction matters, but execution matters more here. The liquidity gap between NQ and MNQ can change the whole PnL path, especially when volatility picks up"}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613372117131856,"gmtCreate":1790730848373,"gmtModify":1790763276954,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102123614530830","authorIdStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market","htmlText":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>","listText":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>","text":"Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fce8a73ff392ac3ccf3d8c64fea4d933","width":"1129","height":"106"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f8992c6658b59f6d636a906a02c58d7","width":"1168","height":"581"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/876347b3549dead115bea60f92c5b4b1","width":"1134","height":"484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613372117131856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000388","authorId":"9000000000000388","name":"joozy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b91d0cbb63ed0ffe6dc3dc19168205d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000388","authorIdStr":"9000000000000388"},"content":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here","text":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here","html":"Rotation wise, when QQQ gets pinned by yields, XSD often holds up better because the capex cycle is doing a different job. I care more about that than broad tech beta here"},{"author":{"id":"3574752437126777","authorId":"3574752437126777","name":"1PC","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d93d931cb700e24c910644542320e877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574752437126777","authorIdStr":"3574752437126777"},"content":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000","text":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000","html":"Nice Sharing 😁 @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613394623820008,"gmtCreate":1790733462199,"gmtModify":1790763269603,"author":{"id":"3582440396794391","authorId":"3582440396794391","name":"Mathematical Money","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19fb5f267af3ec777384ff2888ed8d90","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582440396794391","authorIdStr":"3582440396794391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","text":"$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613394623820008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000177","authorId":"9000000000000177","name":"jigglyp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81107c0431f248a6c5b526745a8ca6e4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000177","authorIdStr":"9000000000000177"},"content":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner","text":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner","html":"Duration framing makes more sense here. The part that still bites is theta getting pricier to carry when yields stay high, so using futures for some rate hedge feels cleaner"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612950771434104,"gmtCreate":1790665611903,"gmtModify":1790665621927,"author":{"id":"4194184698932812","authorId":"4194184698932812","name":"苏36","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4194184698932812","authorIdStr":"4194184698932812"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp; QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull? Monday’s pullback in $QQQ is easy to explain: yields are rising, oil is adding to inflation pressure, and investors are taking profits in high-beta tech. But I think the more interesting question is not whether higher yields hurt technology — they obviously do. The real question is whether AI-driven earnings growth is strong enough to absorb the higher cost of capital. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% on Monday. The move came as oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty revived inflation concerns and pushed expectations for further Fed tightening","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp; QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull? Monday’s pullback in $QQQ is easy to explain: yields are rising, oil is adding to inflation pressure, and investors are taking profits in high-beta tech. But I think the more interesting question is not whether higher yields hurt technology — they obviously do. The real question is whether AI-driven earnings growth is strong enough to absorb the higher cost of capital. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% on Monday. The move came as oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty revived inflation concerns and pushed expectations for further Fed tightening","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ [微笑] QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull? Monday’s pullback in $QQQ is easy to explain: yields are rising, oil is adding to inflation pressure, and investors are taking profits in high-beta tech. But I think the more interesting question is not whether higher yields hurt technology — they obviously do. The real question is whether AI-driven earnings growth is strong enough to absorb the higher cost of capital. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% on Monday. The move came as oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty revived inflation concerns and pushed expectations for further Fed tightening","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a539c76e15658ce8327e472c729d749","width":"1078","height":"660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612950771434104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612941493920152,"gmtCreate":1790664725192,"gmtModify":1790664737709,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"[Predict & Win] Nonfarm Payrolls: Another Fed Hike Ahead?","htmlText":"The September U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a key focus for markets this Friday, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of another rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting has risen to nearly 68%. Employment data could significantly influence expectations for the next policy decision. Meanwhile, higher oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The report will be released on October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET — 8:30 p.m. SGT / 10:30 p.m. AEST. Consensus expectations point to an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls, compar","listText":"The September U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a key focus for markets this Friday, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of another rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting has risen to nearly 68%. Employment data could significantly influence expectations for the next policy decision. Meanwhile, higher oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The report will be released on October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET — 8:30 p.m. SGT / 10:30 p.m. AEST. Consensus expectations point to an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls, compar","text":"The September U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a key focus for markets this Friday, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of another rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting has risen to nearly 68%. Employment data could significantly influence expectations for the next policy decision. Meanwhile, higher oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The report will be released on October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET — 8:30 p.m. SGT / 10:30 p.m. AEST. Consensus expectations point to an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls, compar","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c174bc8ff7bc5324678044aeac07bdd","width":"1254","height":"1254"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612941493920152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4252393041885622","authorId":"4252393041885622","name":"Kentzw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4252393041885622","authorIdStr":"4252393041885622"},"content":"B — 100K–200K. August was much stronger than expected at 162K, but I think September could cool without turning into a major labor-market break. The interesting part will be whether the number comes in closer to 100K or surprises on the upside again.","text":"B — 100K–200K. August was much stronger than expected at 162K, but I think September could cool without turning into a major labor-market break. The interesting part will be whether the number comes in closer to 100K or surprises on the upside again.","html":"B — 100K–200K. August was much stronger than expected at 162K, but I think September could cool without turning into a major labor-market break. The interesting part will be whether the number comes in closer to 100K or surprises on the upside again."},{"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"content":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. For me, the ideal outcome would be a gradual cooling in jobs and wages without a sharp deterioration in the economy. @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents","text":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. For me, the ideal outcome would be a gradual cooling in jobs and wages without a sharp deterioration in the economy. @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents","html":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. For me, the ideal outcome would be a gradual cooling in jobs and wages without a sharp deterioration in the economy. @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613918557069368,"gmtCreate":1790861367303,"gmtModify":1790903832409,"author":{"id":"3587014559420141","authorId":"3587014559420141","name":"Flameless Phoenix","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e64820a51bc95af1d616b3c081af4d0a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587014559420141","authorIdStr":"3587014559420141"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","listText":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","text":"Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":284,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613918557069368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000558","authorId":"9000000000000558","name":"Dollydolly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000558","authorIdStr":"9000000000000558"},"content":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast","text":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast","html":"That EMBJ drop still looks more like a shakeout than a broken setup. If demand keeps firming, this flush can trap shorts fast"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612933927375824,"gmtCreate":1790661505313,"gmtModify":1790662438410,"author":{"id":"4252393041885622","authorId":"4252393041885622","name":"Kentzw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4252393041885622","authorIdStr":"4252393041885622"},"themes":[],"title":"QQQ Is Down, But Is the Real Story Somewhere Else?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a> - The Interesting Part of This Selloff Isn’t the 1% Drop QQQ fell more than 1% on Monday, and the immediate explanation was familiar: Treasury yields are high, growth stocks are expensive, and investors are taking some money off the table. But I think there’s another way to look at it. Instead of asking whether higher yields will “break” the tech bull market, I’m more interested in where the money is going when investors reduce exposure to technology. A 1% decline in QQQ doesn’t necessarily mean investors have suddenly changed their view on technology. It could simply mean the market is becoming more selective. That distinction matters. For a long time, investors could buy growth almost indiscriminately. Strong earnings, AI","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a> - The Interesting Part of This Selloff Isn’t the 1% Drop QQQ fell more than 1% on Monday, and the immediate explanation was familiar: Treasury yields are high, growth stocks are expensive, and investors are taking some money off the table. But I think there’s another way to look at it. Instead of asking whether higher yields will “break” the tech bull market, I’m more interested in where the money is going when investors reduce exposure to technology. A 1% decline in QQQ doesn’t necessarily mean investors have suddenly changed their view on technology. It could simply mean the market is becoming more selective. That distinction matters. For a long time, investors could buy growth almost indiscriminately. Strong earnings, AI","text":"$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ - The Interesting Part of This Selloff Isn’t the 1% Drop QQQ fell more than 1% on Monday, and the immediate explanation was familiar: Treasury yields are high, growth stocks are expensive, and investors are taking some money off the table. But I think there’s another way to look at it. Instead of asking whether higher yields will “break” the tech bull market, I’m more interested in where the money is going when investors reduce exposure to technology. A 1% decline in QQQ doesn’t necessarily mean investors have suddenly changed their view on technology. It could simply mean the market is becoming more selective. That distinction matters. For a long time, investors could buy growth almost indiscriminately. Strong earnings, AI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612933927375824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":613741352665280,"gmtCreate":1790818202444,"gmtModify":1790819519472,"author":{"id":"3569739151630202","authorId":"3569739151630202","name":"PawsAndProfits","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e163d58ec26d1605dd6c781dbdd49f63","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569739151630202","authorIdStr":"3569739151630202"},"themes":[],"title":"Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When","htmlText":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","listText":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","text":"Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ebf1e0e06b22393b4c5ce58b4915d911","width":"979","height":"513"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5d692c2239b262615bcc5ad25878df5","width":"946","height":"346"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8020addc376ee9378cfc91331c7eb027","width":"972","height":"499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613741352665280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612923722453304,"gmtCreate":1790659003990,"gmtModify":1790659908803,"author":{"id":"4244787065737032","authorId":"4244787065737032","name":"D1ane","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9977c2c8264e5d1da9a83ed61034073a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4244787065737032","authorIdStr":"4244787065737032"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;Down 1%+ — The Bond Market Is Becoming the Bigger Story QQQ dropped 1.07% Monday, but the number I’m watching isn’t the Nasdaq decline. It’s the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield pushed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure.  That creates an interesting setup. For months, strong AI spending and earnings growth have helped investors look past higher rates. But when yields keep climbing, the valuation math becomes harder for high-growth stocks. What also caught my attention is that the selling wasn’t uniform. Nvidia gained while several semiconductor names fell sharply, suggesting investors may still be willing to pay for perceived AI leaders even as t","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;Down 1%+ — The Bond Market Is Becoming the Bigger Story QQQ dropped 1.07% Monday, but the number I’m watching isn’t the Nasdaq decline. It’s the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield pushed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure.  That creates an interesting setup. For months, strong AI spending and earnings growth have helped investors look past higher rates. But when yields keep climbing, the valuation math becomes harder for high-growth stocks. What also caught my attention is that the selling wasn’t uniform. Nvidia gained while several semiconductor names fell sharply, suggesting investors may still be willing to pay for perceived AI leaders even as t","text":"$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Down 1%+ — The Bond Market Is Becoming the Bigger Story QQQ dropped 1.07% Monday, but the number I’m watching isn’t the Nasdaq decline. It’s the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield pushed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure.  That creates an interesting setup. For months, strong AI spending and earnings growth have helped investors look past higher rates. But when yields keep climbing, the valuation math becomes harder for high-growth stocks. What also caught my attention is that the selling wasn’t uniform. Nvidia gained while several semiconductor names fell sharply, suggesting investors may still be willing to pay for perceived AI leaders even as t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612923722453304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":612954322552344,"gmtCreate":1790666509806,"gmtModify":1790666756177,"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. F","listText":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. F","text":"I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. F","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96abc0a54a834ca6cc47d48ff2c28777"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612954322552344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574752437126777","authorId":"3574752437126777","name":"1PC","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d93d931cb700e24c910644542320e877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574752437126777","authorIdStr":"3574752437126777"},"content":"Nice Sharing 😁 @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000","text":"Nice Sharing 😁 @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000","html":"Nice Sharing 😁 @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}]}