8899Nar
8899Nar
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avatar8899Nar
06-05

TMDX AT 100X PE IS NOT EXPENSIVE

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!1. $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ AT 100X PE IS NOT EXPENSIVEHERE'S WHY🧵:1) If you believe in CEO execution Transmedics could achieve 10k transplants by 2028 and 20-30k by 2033.Image2) You can convert these numbers in approximately $1.2B and $2.5B of revenue.I assumed a ~2x and not more because kidney procedures will cost less than the other organs ones.3) So, we can assume:• $2.5B revenue in 2033 • 24% profit margin • 30x PE multple: Below medtech mature leaders with good growth profiles (ISRG, EW, BSX)4) The result is $600M of net income by 2033 and a possible $18B market cap.Considering the actual market cap at 4.5B the stock can 4X in ~9 years delivering a 17% CAGR return.5) Si
TMDX AT 100X PE IS NOT EXPENSIVE
avatar8899Nar
07-01

Performances of all my Stocks YTD at the End of H1 2025

Performances of all my stocks YTD at the end of H1 2025 :NATAN'S PORTFOLIO: +31.8%S&P500: +5.5% $Robinhood(HOOD)$ +151% $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ +115% $B2Gold(BTG)$ +48% $Alibaba(BABA)$ +34% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ +26% $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +17% (sold at +56%) $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ +8% $Edwards Lifesciences(EW)$ +6% $PayPal(PYPL)$ -13% $Regeneron
Performances of all my Stocks YTD at the End of H1 2025
avatar8899Nar
08-23

MY TOP 10 UNDERVALUED STOCKS🧵

1) $Alibaba(BABA)$ The biggest ecommerce in the world with >$1T GMV and the leading cloud services provider in the accelerating China market at 14x Fwd PE. Natan's fair value: ~$162 (+32%)2) $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ Stock is down 15% from recent high and remains very undervalued. The company is innovating the transplants market and they plan to achieve 10k transplants in 2028.Natan's fair value: ~$174 (+45%)3) $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ One of the fastest growing ecommerces in the world trading at 8X EV/FCF.Management proved many times its ability to deliver impressive growth and profitability in one of the most competitive market in the world.Natan's fair
MY TOP 10 UNDERVALUED STOCKS🧵
avatar8899Nar
09-02

𝙁𝘼𝙄𝙍 𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝙀𝙎 𝙊𝙁 𝘼𝙇𝙇 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝘾𝙊𝙈𝙋𝘼𝙉𝙄𝙀𝙎 𝙊𝙁 𝙈𝙔 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊

Tell me if you agree or not 👇1) $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ ~$173Potential upside: +44%2) $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ ~$174Potential upside: +51%3) $Alibaba(BABA)$ ~$169Potential upside: +21%4) $Robinhood(HOOD)$ ~$87Potential upside: -14%5) $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ ~$364Potential upside: +17% 6) $PayPal(PYPL)$ ~$107Potential upside: +53%7) $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$ ~$786Potential upside: +35% 8) $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ~$926Potential upside: +25%
𝙁𝘼𝙄𝙍 𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝙀𝙎 𝙊𝙁 𝘼𝙇𝙇 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝘾𝙊𝙈𝙋𝘼𝙉𝙄𝙀𝙎 𝙊𝙁 𝙈𝙔 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊
avatar8899Nar
12-01

META IS THE CHEAPEST BIG TECH!

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ IS THE CHEAPEST BIG TECH!PRICE TARGET: $1025POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +60% ✅"Q3 revenue up 26% was impressive. Margin decline from heavy investments may weigh short term, but I remain very bullish long term"ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $189.458B5Y Revenue CAGR: 13%2030 Profit Margin: 39%2030 PE Ratio: 27Shares outstanding: 2.572BShares reduction: 1%/year VALUATION:Q3 2030 $META Share Price =189.458 * (1.13)^5 * 0.39 * 27 /[2.572 * (0.99)^5] = 1503$You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Meta I want to use 10%. ACTUAL PRICE: $640FAIR VALUE: $9331Y PRICE TARGET: $1025POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +60%EXPECTED RETURNS: 18.6%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 0.3%For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading lim
META IS THE CHEAPEST BIG TECH!
avatar8899Nar
09-29

MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025🧵

MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025🧵Since my post these stocks are up 43% on average YTD vs 13% of S&P500 🤯1) $Alibaba(BABA)$ The biggest ecommerce in the world and the leading cloud services provider in China.Natan's fair value: ~$172 (+0%)2) $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ Stock is up 70% YTD but remains extremely cheap vs peers.The company is innovating the transplants market and they plan to achieve 10k transplants in 2028.Natan's fair value: ~$174 (+53%)3) $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Meta is my favorite big tech at current prices trading at 26x Fwd PE.The social networks giant is spending billion of $ in Capex to build their AI data centers.In my opinion Meta wil
MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025🧵
avatar8899Nar
06-12

MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025 (UPDATE)🧵

These stocks are up +32.4% on average YTD vs +3.0% of S&P500 🤯1) $Alibaba(BABA)$ The biggest ecommerce in the world with >$1T GMV and the biggest cloud services provider in China at 12x Fwd PE. Natan's fair value: ~$162 (+34%)Image2) $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ Stock is up 2X YTD after the unjustified hard sell-off.The company is innovating the transplants market and they plan to achieve 10k transplants in 2028.Natan's fair value: ~$162 (+13%)Image3) $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Meta is my favorite big tech at current prices trading at 27X Fwd PE.The social networks giant is spending billion of $ in Capex to build their AI data centers.In my opinion Me
MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025 (UPDATE)🧵
avatar8899Nar
10-28

PYPL: Q3 EARNINGS ARE OUT!

$PayPal(PYPL)$ Q3 EARNINGS ARE OUT!OpenAI and PayPal Team Up to Power Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce in ChatGPT 🚀 - Revenue +7% (+6% FXN)- TM$ +7%- GAAP EPS +30% (+12% NON-GAAP)- TPV +7%- FCF $2.3B- $1.5B Shares repurchased in Q3- Initiated a dividen program (10% payout ratio target)For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉Cash Boost Account Supports CPF/SRS Linking, Enjoy 0 Custody Fees and 0 C
PYPL: Q3 EARNINGS ARE OUT!
avatar8899Nar
10-08

IS UP 10% IN JUST 5 DAYS AND STILL LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY UNDERVALUED.

IS UP 10% IN JUST 5 DAYS AND STILL LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY UNDERVALUED.PRICE TARGET: $118POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +57% ✅ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $32.292B5Y Revenue CAGR: 7%2030 Profit Margin: 16%2030 PE Ratio: 18Shares outstanding: 0.977BShares reduction: 5%/yearVALUATION:Q2 2030 PYPL SHARE PRICE =32.292 * (1.07)^5 * 0.16 * 18 /[0.977 * (0.95)^5] = 173$You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for PayPal I want to use 10%. ACTUAL PRICE: $75 FAIR VALUE: $107PRICE TARGET: $118POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +57%EXPECTED RETURNS: 18.2%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: - What do you think about $PayPal(PYPL)$ ? Stock price chart for PayPal Holdings Inc ticker PYPL on NASDAQ displaying price movements from February 2025 to October 2025. Current price shown as 74.61 USD with 8.07
IS UP 10% IN JUST 5 DAYS AND STILL LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY UNDERVALUED.
avatar8899Nar
07-30

𝙈𝙔 $UNH 𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 𝙈𝙊𝘿𝙀𝙇

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 1Y TARGET: $427 --> $405POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +56% ✅"This scenario implies a positive outlook but lower than before long term margin, conservative PE and higher discount rate to reflect current uncertainty" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $422.818B5Y Revenue CAGR: 7%2030 Profit Margin: 5.5% --> 5%2030 PE Ratio: 17Shares outstanding: 0.910BShares reduction: 2%/yearVALUATION:Q2 2030 $UNH SHARE PRICE =422.818 * (1.07)^5 * 0.05 * 17 /[0.910 * (0.98^5)] = $613You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Unitedhealthcare I want to use 11%. ACTUAL PRICE: $260FAIR VALUE: $364PRICE TARGET (1Y): $405POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +56%EXPECTED RETURNS: 18.7%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 3.4%ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open
𝙈𝙔 $UNH 𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 𝙈𝙊𝘿𝙀𝙇
avatar8899Nar
09-25

BABA IS FINALLY TRADING AT MY FAIR VALUE!

$Alibaba(BABA)$ PRICE TARGET: $192POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +8% ✅"Alibaba remains a decent opportunity considering the accelerating growth of Cloud business but part of the upside is clearly gone" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $138.995B(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.𝟤𝟢) 5Y Revenue CAGR: 9%2030 Profit Margin: 17%2030 PE Ratio: 18Shares outstanding: 2.393BShares reduction: 2%/year VALUATION:Q2 2030 $BABA SHARE PRICE =138.995 * (1.09)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.393 * (0.98)^5] = $303You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%ACTUAL PRICE: $177FAIR VALUE: $172PRICE TARGET (1Y): $192POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 8%EXPECTED RETURNS: 11.4%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 0.6%Are you selling your BABA shares? An orange background with a white stylized "a" logo featuring
BABA IS FINALLY TRADING AT MY FAIR VALUE!
avatar8899Nar
09-24

PYPL IS EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED!

$PayPal(PYPL)$ IS EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED!PRICE TARGET: $118POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +74% ✅"In my view, PayPal remains very undervalued, also supported by the aggressive buyback program. Margins are improving and revenue acceleration is expected in 2026" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $32.292B5Y Revenue CAGR: 7%2030 Profit Margin: 16%2030 PE Ratio: 18Shares outstanding: 0.977BShares reduction: 5%/yearVALUATION:Q2 2030 $PYPL SHARE PRICE =32.292 * (1.07)^5 * 0.16 * 18 /[0.977 * (0.95)^5] = 173$You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for PayPal I want to use a 10%ACTUAL PRICE: $68FAIR VALUE: $107PRICE TARGET: $118POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +66%EXPECTED RETURNS: 20.5%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: - A stock chart for PayPal Holdings Inc, ticker NASDAQ: PYPL. The chart sh
PYPL IS EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED!
avatar8899Nar
08-10

MY 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀

𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀 Natan YTD: +35.7%S&P500 YTD: +8.6%TOTAL RETURNS (Jan 2022)Natan's portfolio: +104.8% *Benchmark: +35.4% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +40.1%MY POSITIONS:19.4% | $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ 15.6% | $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ 12.1% | $Robinhood(HOOD)$ 9.5% | $Alibaba(BABA)$ 7.9% | $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 6.3% | $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 6.3% | $PayPal(PYPL)$ 6.0% | $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$ 4.
MY 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀
avatar8899Nar
05-28

PDD: Still Positive Towards PDD

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some PDD thoughts with you!1.Bad day for portfolio with $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ down 14% but I'm still up >20% YTD.Why I'm not selling my Pinduoduo shares after the terrible earnings?• For a company like Pinduoduo a single quarter is not that relevant. • Management proved its ability building a $600B GMV (like $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ) ecommerce in 10 years only.• I won't sell a good company trading at 5X EV/FCF, in particular because I don't see a single better risk/reward opportunity.2.Despite all the noise numbers tell us that $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ is still gaining market shares in both China and international market.Q1 2025
PDD: Still Positive Towards PDD
avatar8899Nar
11-03

REGN: Valuation Model

𝙈𝙔 $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$ 𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 𝙈𝙊𝘿𝙀𝙇1Y TARGET: $865 --> $930POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +43% ✅"Regeneron remains my favorite large Cap biotech, Dupixent alone justify almost totally current valuation" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $14.248B5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%2030 Profit Margin: 35%2030 PE Ratio: 17 --> 18Shares outstanding: 107.2MShares reduction: 2%/yearVALUATION:Q3 2030 $REGN SHARE PRICE =14.248 * (1.08)^5 * 0.35 * 18 /[0.1072 * (0.98^5)] = $1361You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Regeneron I want to use 10%. ACTUAL PRICE: $650FAIR VALUE: $845PRICE TARGET (1Y): $930POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +43%EXPECTED RETURNS: 15.9%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 0.5%Do you own REGN shares? Stock chart for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ REGN dis
REGN: Valuation Model
avatar8899Nar
10-30

TMDX REMAINS VERY UNDERVALUED 👇🏻

$TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ PRICE TARGET: $195 --> $216POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +76% ✅"Q3 results were impressive, insane operating leverage, 16% margins in the weakest Q of the year. The earnings are bullish, but few will get it" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $0.566B5Y Revenue CAGR: 23% 2030 Profit Margin: 23% --> 24%2030 PE Ratio: 40 Shares outstanding: 0.0407BShares dilution: 2%/yearVALUATION:Q3 2030 $TMDX SHARE PRICE =0.566 * (1.23)^5 * 0.24 * 40 /[0.0407 * (1.02)^5] = 340$You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Transmedics I want to use 12%ACTUAL PRICE: $123FAIR VALUE: $193PRICE TARGET (1Y): $216POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +73%EXPECTED RETURNS: 22.6%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: - For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA t
TMDX REMAINS VERY UNDERVALUED 👇🏻
avatar8899Nar
10-20

MY 5 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES🧵

MY 5 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES🧵(No one is paying attention to n°5) 1) $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ Revolutionizing organ transplants, founder-led, stellar track record, and still cheap for its growth.Natan's fair value: $174 (+48%)Stock chart for Transmedics ($TMDX) displaying current price of 117.63 USD with 104.38 or 87.77 percent gain over past five years closed at 17 October 19:42 GMT after hours at 117.50 down 0.13 or 0.11 percent line graph showing price trend from 2023 to 2025 with time periods 1D 5D 1M 6M YTD 5Y and price scale from 0 to 200 disclaimer noted.2) $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$ One of the best biotechs ever.The company reinvests 40% of revenue in R&D, and excluding that,
MY 5 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES🧵
avatar8899Nar
09-23

Some insights on TMDX Italy announcement

Some insights on $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ Italy announcement 🇮🇹🫀The chart shows the current Italian organ transplant market:4700 Transplants in 2024 growing 5% y/y, growth was totally driven by DCD (up 40% y/y). Total transplants by organ:• Kidney 2300• Liver 1700• Heart 400• Lung 200Assuming:• TMDX can capture 50% of the market by 2032• 3% growth rate for next 8 yearsThey could achieve ~3000 transplants, at $50-70K/transplant the revenue opportunity could be in the 150-200M range.A chart displaying organ transplantation activities in Italy for 2024. Bar graphs show deceased donor and living donor transplants, with totals of 4,700 transplants, including 2,300 kidney, 1,700 liver, 400 heart, and 200 lung transplants. A map of Italy highlight
Some insights on TMDX Italy announcement
avatar8899Nar
09-17

IS IT TOO LATE TO BUY BABA?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ PRICE TARGET: $192POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +24% ✅"Alibaba remains an attractive opportunity considering the 10% growth of China commerce and the 25%+ growth of Cloud" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $138.995B(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.𝟤𝟢) 5Y Revenue CAGR: 9%2030 Profit Margin: 17%2030 PE Ratio: 18Shares outstanding: 2.393BShares reduction: 2%/year VALUATION:Q2 2030 $BABA SHARE PRICE =138.995 * (1.09)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.393 * (0.98)^5] = $303You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%ACTUAL PRICE: $155FAIR VALUE: $172PRICE TARGET (1Y): $192POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 24%EXPECTED RETURNS: 14.3%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 0.7%Do you own BABA shares? A stock chart for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (BABA) on the NYSE. The chart sho
IS IT TOO LATE TO BUY BABA?
avatar8899Nar
09-04

BEST MEDTECH BUSINESS ISRG IS FINALLY AT MY FAIR VALUE! 👇

BEST MEDTECH BUSINESS $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ IS FINALLY AT MY FAIR VALUE! 👇 PRICE TARGET: $495POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +13% ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $9.145B5Y Revenue CAGR: 15%2030 Profit Margin: 33%2030 PE Ratio: 42Shares outstanding: 0.364BShares reduction: 0%/year VALUATION:Q2 2030 $ISRG Share Price =9.145 * (1.15)^5 * 0.33 * 42 /[0.364 * (1.00)^5] = 700$You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Intuitive Surgical I want to use 9%. ACTUAL PRICE: $440FAIR VALUE: $4551Y PRICE TARGET: $495POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +13%EXPECTED RETURNS: 9.7%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: - ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well
BEST MEDTECH BUSINESS ISRG IS FINALLY AT MY FAIR VALUE! 👇

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