Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner) — Q1 2026 13F Analysis Executive Summary AUM surged 148% QoQ to $13.7B notional, driven by massive options overlay expansion. ~60% of notional exposure now hedges AI semiconductor downside via broad-based PUTs (SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, ORCL). Core long thesis intact: Heavy conviction remains in AI infrastructure (power, data centers, GPU cloud) via common stock positions in CRWV, BE, SNDK. Key signal: Even the most vocal AGI bull is now buying crash insurance on the chip trade — a critical sentiment shift for momentum investors. Fund Snapshot Metric Q1 2026 Q4 2025 Change Notional Holdings $13.7B $5.52B +148% Total Positions 46+ (incl. options) ~30 Expanded New Purchases 23 — Aggressive rotation Sold Out 10 — Risk reduction Top Theme AI Infrast

$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ explodes 18% pre-market. Is the "Structural New Era" of AI storage here? One-sentence summary: Q3 earnings demolished expectations + Q4 guidance dazzled the market + CEO announced 2027 capacity is fully sold out. Seagate is transforming from a "cyclical stock" into an "AI infrastructure must-have." This isn't just a solo rally for STX—the combined market cap of the four storage giants surged by $60 billion after-hours. Company After-Hours/Pre-Market Gain $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ +18% $Western Digital(WDC)$ +10%+ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ +4-5% $Micron Techn

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just notched a fresh record. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are tagging new highs. Your first instinct? 'Too late,' 'wait for the dip,' or 'it can't go higher.' Here's the counterintuitive truth backed by 20 years of data: new highs are not a ceiling—they're a signal. A landmark study from The Journal of Finance shows stocks near their 52-week highs tend to keep outperforming, while 'bargains' far from their highs often keep lagging. If you're hesitating to buy strength right now, this read is for you. 👇 🔗 Don't Fear the 52-Week

I bought shares and Calls in early April. And sold early.. 1. Acquisition Core: The Only "Full-Spectrum" Rare Earth Producer Outside Asia USAR is acquiring Brazil's Serra Verde Group for $2.8 billion ($300M cash + ~$2.5B stock). Serra Verde's Pela Ema mine is the only producer outside Asia capable of scaling supply of all four magnetic rare earth elements: Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Dysprosium (Dy), and Terbium (Tb). What does this mean? The global rare earth supply chain is currently heavily dependent on China. Serra Verde offers the West a "de-risking" alternative path. More critically, it carries a 15-year 100% offtake agreement, backstopped by a US government agency-supported SPV, with minimum price protections built in. 2. Financial Imagination: From "Story Stock" to "EBITDA Y

As of April 14 close, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ surged +3.81% to $249.02 on heavy volume of 72.68M shares (1.49x average), bringing it within 3.7% of the 52-week high at $258.60. The breakout is fueled by dual catalysts: the $11.6B Globalstar acquisition closing the satellite gap with Starlink, and AWS AI revenue surpassing a $15B annual run rate. 🚀 1. The Satellite Play: Amazon Declares War on Musk Deal Summary Target: Globalstar (U.S. mobile satellite operator with 24 satellites in orbit) Value: ~$11.57B (mix of $90/share cash or 0.321 AMZN shares) Strategic Value: Rare spectrum licenses and Direct-to-Device (D2D) tech; AMZN targets 2028 for satellite-to-smartphone service launch Competitive Landscape Metric Amazon Leo (+Globalstar) SpaceX Starlink Sat

Executive Summary For investors navigating cross-border exposures, the week ahead offers a welcome pivot from macro uncertainty to policy clarity. US markets have spent three weeks consolidating—not collapsing—amid energy volatility and inflation stickiness, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to hit pause on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s tech heavyweights step into the earnings spotlight, providing concrete data points on China’s AI investment cycle and consumer resilience. Last Week’s Recap: Orderly Consolidation, Not Panic US equities extended a gentle three-week pullback, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ regist

The Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly 20% of global daily oil supply—is effectively closed. Tanker traffic collapsed from 16 million to 4 million barrels per day within 72 hours. While markets panic, a clear rotation is underway: $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ has rallied 20.6% year-to-date while the S&P 500 remains flat and the Nasdaq has dipped into negative territory.Here is how to position your ETF portfolio for what comes next.1. The Energy Hedge: Your Portfolio InsuranceEnergy is the only sector that profits from the same macro shock (oil spikes) that punishes everything else. This isn't theoretical—it's historical fact. From 1969 to 1984, a period of severe oil volatility and stagflation, the S&P 500 returned just 8% af