*POWELL: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS LIKELY LARGER THAN EXPECTED

🇺🇸 FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL JUST SAID - ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS LIKELY LARGER THAN EXPECTED, MUST ENSURE PRICE HIKES DON’T LEAD TO ONGOING INFLATION - TARIFFS LIKELY TO RAISE INFLATION IN COMING QUARTERS. POSSIBLE TARIFFS COULD HAVE PERSISTENT INFLATION IMPACT

🚨 RECESSION RISK SPIKES TO 60% The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has surged to 60% (+15.1) on Kalshi, its highest level in months. The sharp rise comes as China retaliates with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions after the latest U.S. tariff hikes

NEWS: China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10.

Literally me at 4am! 

TARIFF ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON CRUSHING TECH: WEDBUSH 🔸 iPhones may rise from $1,000 to $3,500, slowing AI progress. 🔸 U.S. consumers will face higher tech prices. 🔸 Tariffs may cut tech earnings 15%, disrupt supply chains, and cause recession or stagflation. 🔸 Tech stocks face worst crisis in 25 years due to Trump tariffs in last 36 hours. 🔸 Reciprocal tariffs aim to match U.S. trade surplus, supported by auto, industrial, tech leaders. 🔸 Unlike 1980s, tariffs now hit tech trade, AI revolution, and global industry hard. 🔸 Silicon Valley relies on Asian supply chains for chips, hardware, components since 1990s. 🔸 40 years of global trade gave U.S. cheap tech; now 50% China, 32% Taiwan tariffs raise costs 40%–50%. 🔸 U.S. manufacturing takes 4–5 years to build, but labor costs are high, workforc

TRUMP JUST NOW: "I AM OPEN TO NEGOTIATIONS ON TARIFFS IF WE GET SOME PHENOMENAL OFFERS." One of the reason the market is annoyed today is because 3 different White House officials explicitly said today that the tariffs are not up for negotiation. Now Trump says they are. Just more and more uncertainty that the market has no idea how to price in

TOM LEE ON THE TARIFF VOLATILITY TODAY: 1. He believes that the rates introduced yesterday were “absurd” and should be negotiated down. 2. He feels that the Trump admin could be purposefully trying to create volatility in order to get bond yields down BUT it is a scary game because it risks a recession.

bought $HOOD $NVDA $GRAB $GOOGL at the end of the day, 99% of us are long term investors the whole point of a DCA is that you don’t know when the bottom is but you are willing to deploy capital when you see steep discounts even if stocks can go lower now what’s very interesting to me right now is that stocks with AGGRESSIVE multiples have not been hit in some catastrophic fashion yet… for example $OKLO and $ACHR don’t even have earnings yet — those stocks are only down 1% today? $TSLA — one of the stock with the most uncertainties and a disgusting deliveries number is holding $270? $QBTS $RGTI — Quantum stocks are only down 5%? Yet Mag 7 names like $AMZN and $AAPL are down almost 9%? Either the market is saying we just don’t believe in these tariff rates because these speculative companies

$TSLA & Apple are in completely different galaxies when it comes to tariff risk & impact… markets sweeping everything together in baskets initially, but this should get sorted soon. Tesla, not unscathed, but in a much better position vs any auto or major consumer product manufacturer based on several years of engineering, product, and supply chain decisions to localize vs globalize…

$TSLA - UBS ANALYST JOSEPH SPAK REITERATED A SELL RATING AND $225.00 PRICE TARGET ON TESLA 🔸 Caution: Expect negative 2025 revisions. 🔸 1Q25 deliveries: 336.7k (-32% q/q, -13% y/y), missing consensus (377.6k) by 11% and buy-side estimates (~355-360k) by ~6%. 🔸 Production: 362.6k (-21% q/q, -16% y/y), impacted by Model Y changeover. 🔸 Inventory proxy: 124k units (~28 days on hand), up from 15 last quarter. 🔸 2025 outlook: Consensus at 1.85M (+4% y/y), UBS at 1.7M (-5% y/y). 🔸 Challenges: TSLA needs ~8% y/y growth for 1.85M target; even 1.6M requires 2Q-4Q25 deliveries to rise 25% vs. 1Q25.

CHINA-US NEGOTIATIONS LIKELY SOON- CHINESE ADVISORS Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are likely to start soon given President Donald Trump's penchant for dealmaking, but a quick settlement looks difficult, with China calculating that the U.S. position will be weakened by a deterioration of its economy and markets, Chinese policy advisors told MNI.

TARIFF FRENZY SETS UP CRITICAL POWELL SPEECH Friday remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been on the calendar for weeks, but they take on a new urgency after President Trump's tariff announcement shocked investors and business leaders. The speech "will now be ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POWELL SPEECHES IN THREE YEARS," Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities writes to clients. In his most recent comments, Powell has said that monetary policy is still in a restrictive stance, a "good place" given that inflation remains above the Fed's target. Tariffs could threaten both sides of the Fed's dual mandate, however, by increasing inflation pressure while also damping economic growth and the labor market. Powell is scheduled to speak at 11:25 a.m. ET Friday.

Trump unveiled his tariff plan today, with a baseline tariff of 10%, and much higher tariffs on countries with higher tariffs against the U.S. Tariffs on China imports were set at 34%, the E.U. 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Mexico and Canada 25%. Auto imports will go to 25% effective immediately. Taken together, the tariffs were a worst case scenario, with markets responding accordingly after hours as fears of global recession rise, with SPX futures -1.8%, NDX -2.6%, and $TSLA -5.2%.

CHINA 🇨🇳 URGES US 🇺🇸 TO ‘IMMEDIATELY’ CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES - CNBC

the worst part about the tariff announcement today is that these numbers don’t make sense the rates they are using to calculate the 50% half-rate we charge back at each country include “currency manipulation and trade barriers” currency manipulation includes FX headwinds which literally can change by the day the EU is not charging us 39% across the board… how did they come up with these numbers? where is the logic here? the market wanted 10%, 15%, 20% buckets — that was priced in not these made up numbers to calculate reciprocal rates…

NEWS: Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas believes $TSLA sentiment could have just bottomed after Tesla's Q1 delivery report. "We believe the challenges facing Tesla's current business are widely reported and well known, while the opportunities in the future business are potentially greatly underestimated."

$TSLA - 'MUSK NEEDS TO GET HIS ACT TOGETHER OR ELSE UNFORTUNATELY DARKER TIMES ARE AHEAD FOR TESLA' - WEDBUSH "Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation....BUT...Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.

Tesla is supposed to start production of more affordable vehicle models this quarter, according to their most recent earnings report: "Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up."

$TSLA 1Q delivs 336.7K -13% YoY and well below WS estimates of 377K. This will push analysts to reduce FY’25 deliv estimates (currently 1,869K +4.5% YoY) and FY’25 earnings ests (currently $2.73 +12.8% YoY) as the debate intensifies whether the 1Q miss was due to Elon’s political rhetoric and DOGE actions vs consumers delaying purchase of Model Y so they could get the new refreshed version. As we mentioned this morning in our preview: “There will be huge debate today about whether the likely 1Q delivery miss was due to Elon’s ongoing political rhetoric and DOGE activities, or the changeover to the New Model Y, which caused consumers to hold off purchases until the new version arrived. Europe 1Q delivs were down -35% YoY, with France and Germany -40% and -60% YoY respectively, while China d