Long_Equity
Long_Equity
Concentrated Global Equity Fund | ROC + FCF | Linear Compounders | Value Creation + Pricing Power | “There’s never a bad time to buy a compounding machine.”
0Follow
1103Followers
0Topic
0Badge

Four of the most important ratios in investing

Four of the most important ratios in investing: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. FCF / Invested capital2. FCF / Historic FCF3. FCF / Revenue4. FCF / Market capitalisationIf you had to add one, what would it be?High growth companies normally have high multiples.I created this table to show the relationship between growth and multiples👇In short, a PE ratio of 50 requires a 20%
Four of the most important ratios in investing

High growth companies normally have high multiples

High growth companies normally have high multiples.I created this table to show the relationship between growth and multiples👇In short, a PE ratio of 50 requires a 20% earnings growth over 5 years to turn that multiple from 50 -> 20.FYI, I use FCF yield - not P/E. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $FT Vest U.S. Equity Deep Buffer ETF - January(DJAN)$ ImageTwo things you can do to become a better investor: 1. Limit th
High growth companies normally have high multiples

Here’s a list of some of my favourite non-US companies

Here’s a list of some of my favourite non-US companies:UK 🇬🇧 Cerillion $CERILLION(CER.UK)$ $Cerillion PLC(CRLLF)$ Spirax Sarco $SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC(SPX.UK)$ Sweden 🇸🇪 Fortnox $Fortnox AB(FNOXF)$ Germany 🇩🇪 ATOSS SoftwareNemetschek $Nemetschek AG(NEMTF)$ France 🇫🇷 Esker $Esker SA(ESKEF)$ Denmark 🇩🇰 Genmab $Genmab A/S(GNMSF)$ Novo Nordisk $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Netherlands 🇳🇱 ASML $ASML Holding NV(
Here’s a list of some of my favourite non-US companies

The 10-year FCF/share growth rates of the 1,500 largest US companies

The 10-year FCF/share growth rates of the 1,500 largest US companies

Investing in High, Predictable Growth: S&P 500 Insights

Here's how the constituents of the S&P 500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.I invest in the top right, where growth is high and predictable.ImageWhen analysing a company, consider where its product/service fits in its customer’s income statement. I personally target essential spending, ideally related to OPEX and maintenance CAPEX.ImageTwo things you can do to become a better investor: 1. Limit the number of companies you own 2. Limit how frequently you trade This forces you to: 1. Only own your best ideas 2. Accept there will always opportunities you miss out on
Investing in High, Predictable Growth: S&P 500 Insights

A helpful mental model when analysing a company

Here’s a helpful mental model. When analysing a company, consider where its product/service fits in its customer’s income statement.I personally target essential spending, ideally related to OPEX and maintenance CAPEX.ImageThere are more essential software categories or only CybersecOffice software (eg Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ), payroll (ADP $Automatic Data Processing Inc(ADP)$ ), accounting (Intuit $Intuit(INTU)$ ), work force management (ATOSS $Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$ ), enterprise (SAP $SAP SE(SAP)$ , Oracle $Oracle(ORCL)$).
A helpful mental model when analysing a company

What's the highest quality company with a network effect?

What's the highest quality company with a network effect?Here's the list:- Revenue growth higher than FCF growth, suggesting that FCF margin has shrunk.- FCF/share growth not linear over recent years. Of course we expected that with their high CAPEX investments in recent years.- Low return on capital. Only 10% currently. ROC has been quite volatile.- Share count has increased by 5% over the last 5 years due to a 21% SBC/OFC ratio.Hope that helps. Not saying it's not a quality company, just reporting the ratios as I see and calculate them.I put through my list of network companies through my quality filter. $MasterCard(MA)$ rose to the top. $Adobe(ADBE)$ $Autodesk(ADSK)
What's the highest quality company with a network effect?

Four impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks

Here are some very impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks.• 🇨🇦 Descartes Systems $Descartes(DSGX)$ • 🇦🇺 Technology One $TECHNOLOGY ONE LTD(TNE.AU)$ $Technology One, Ltd.(THNOF)$ • 🇧🇪 Lotus Bakeries $Lotus Bakeries NV(LTSSF)$ • 🇬🇧 Diploma $Diploma Plc.(DPLMF)$ Looking for 800 other companies with share price growth just like this? Then subscribe (link in bio) and check out the newly updated linearity database.ImageImageImageImage
Four impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks

Why I don’t invest in the S&P 500?

Why I don’t invest in the S&P 500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ :- only 25% of the index has a FCF/share growth greater than 15%- only 26% of the index has a return on capital greater than 12%- only 12% of the index has both of the above- I don’t want to own banks, airlines, energy companies, mining companies, utilities, heavy industrials and biotechs- I don’t want to own anything discretionary- I don’t want to own alcohol, tobacco or gambling stocks- I don’t want to own anything highly leveraged or highly cyclicalI see companies with high growth rates ahead of them as cheap, and low growth rates ahead of them as expensive.What would you add?
Why I don’t invest in the S&P 500?

ASML, NVDA, NVO & HESAF - The quality growth dashboards

I've recently updated my quality growth dashboards. Here's a selection featuring:- ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Image- NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image- Novo Nordisk $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Image- Hermes $Hermes International SA(HESAF)$ ImageI’ve recently updated my Global Compounders Database. You can gain access to a spreadsheet containing ~20 quality growth metrics through my subscriptions (link in bio).I’ve recently added- Salesforce $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ - WW Grainger $W.W. Grainger(GWW)$ - Interactive Brokers
ASML, NVDA, NVO & HESAF - The quality growth dashboards

Here’s a list of companies benefitting from network effects

The network effect is one of the most resilient barriers to entry and one of the hardest competitive advantages to create.Here’s a list of companies benefitting from network effects, sorted by their type of network.Whats your favourite type of network?Payment system $Visa(V)$ $MasterCard(MA)$ $American Express(AXP)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $Block(SQ)$ Financial market $Nasdaq(NDAQ)$ $Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)$ E-commerce / Marketplace $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Here’s a list of companies benefitting from network effects

V, MA & FICO - The companies benefiting from networks effect

The network effect is one of the most resilient barriers to entry and one of the hardest competitive advantages to create.Here are my favourite companies benefiting from networks:• Visa $Visa(V)$• Mastercard $MasterCard(MA)$• FICO $Fair Isaac(FICO)$Fortunately I’m not a value investor! FICO is probably in the top 0.1%, if not 0.01%, of companies in terms of business quality.It’s incredible how many humans use either Facebook, Instagram or WhatsApp.I’m starting to see that $Copart(CPRT)$ more and more in the UK. Compared to a few years ago when I only ever saw it on Fintwit!What would you add?
V, MA & FICO - The companies benefiting from networks effect

Here are some very impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks

Here are some very impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks• 🇨🇦 Descartes Systems $Descartes(DSGX)$ • 🇦🇺 Technology One $TECHNOLOGY ONE LTD(TNE.AU)$ $Technology One, Ltd.(THNOF)$ • 🇧🇪 Lotus Bakeries $Lotus Bakeries NV(LOTBY)$ • 🇬🇧 Diploma $Diploma Plc.(DPLMF)$ Over the last 15 years, Descartes Systems Group has grown its share price at an annualised rate of 24% per year. Just as impressive is the fact that it did so with a linearity of 0.93. Linearity refers to how straight a line. Companies with high linearity have a RSq value between 0.9 and 1.0. This means their share pr
Here are some very impressive, non-US, linear growth stocks

Quality companies with linear share price growth and strong financials

Quality companies with linear share price growth and strong financials

S&P 500 Constituents: Growth Rate and Linearity Differences

Here's how the constituents of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.ImageImagine being sat around a boardroom table listening to the world's top CEOs talking about the opportunities and threats facing their companies.My latest report covers the recent insights and the economic outlook from a range of quality growth companies...ImageIn 1960, Theodore Levitt warned that the decline of America’s railroad industry was because railroads assumed they were in the "railroad business rather than in the transportation business.” Companies miss out on long-term growth when they fail to see the full spectrum of its customer needs.
S&P 500 Constituents: Growth Rate and Linearity Differences

The top detractors were FICO & AMAT in DEC

Portfolio at the end of December 2024December performance: -5.6% 2024 return: 20.5% FCF ROC = 38% FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 24% FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.94 FCF Margin = 35% FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 6% FCF Yield = 2.71%ImageWe exited our position in $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ . The top contributor to performance was ATOSS Software. The top detractors from performance were $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ .I’ve held Novo for quite some time, mostly for the insulin side of the business - as I thought it was highly predictable. I think there will be a lot of growth once Ozempic is sold in Mexico.Well I personally own property and have cash savings, bu
The top detractors were FICO & AMAT in DEC
avatarLong_Equity
2024-12-30

Which companies are you most excited for in 2025?

Which company in your portfolio are you most excited for in 2025? $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ - Where would the world be without them $AppFolio(APPF)$ - It has a lot of positive sentiment at the moment $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ - Sometimes CAPEX takes a while to return FCF, I see all the semiconductor equipment manufacturers ( $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$
Which companies are you most excited for in 2025?
avatarLong_Equity
2024-12-28

S&P 500 Growth & Linearity Differences

Here's how the constituents of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.I use RSq, so the closer to 1.00 the better the correlation and therefore the less the volatility. And yes, it's against years.ImageHere are some of the financial metrics I optimise my portfolio for:What would you add?ImageInterestingly I rarely see FCF yield as a predictor of future share price gains. But I absolutely keep my eye on it!The three most important qualities of a quality business:1. Predictable growth2. Capital efficiency3. Pricing powerWhat would you add?
S&P 500 Growth & Linearity Differences
avatarLong_Equity
2024-12-24

Quality Growth Dashboards - ASML, NVDA, NVO & HESAF

I've recently updated my quality growth dashboards. Here's a selection featuring: $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $Hermes International SA(HESAF)$ ImageImageImageImageA mental model for understanding why high returns on capital and growth rate are both required for compounding.High ROC + High Growth = CompoundingHigh ROC + Low Growth = Lack of reinvestment opportunities and a high dividendLow ROC + High Growth = An expanding and unproductive balance sheetImage
Quality Growth Dashboards - ASML, NVDA, NVO & HESAF

Go to Tiger App to see more news