Employment smashed expectations in October with 55,000 people finding work, more than double market forecasts, but the jobless rate edged higher to 3.7 percent.
The number of people participating in the workforce hit an equal record last month, and while many people found jobs, almost 28,000 joined the dole queue, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
The increase in employment in October followed a lacklustre September, up just 8000, which ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said indicated a slowing in the growth rate over the year.
“These increases equate to average employment growth of around 31,000 people a month, which is slightly lower than the average growth of 35,000 people a month since October 2022,” Mr Jarvis said.
The majority of new jobs were part-time, though full-time positions increased by about 17,000.
The result showed the jobs market continues to be strong but the pressure seen over the past 18 months is easing.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has pointed to increased underemployment and youth unemployment as leading indicators of a jobs market slowdown. Mr Jarvis said a slowdown in the growth of hours worked also indicated a slowdown.
Young people hit hardest
The underemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 per cent in October, in line with September’s revised figure. Unemployment of people aged 15–24 rose to 9.2 percent from 8 per cent the month prior.
The result for young Australians is the worst since December 2021.
The RBA forecasts the jobless rate to rise slowly to 3.8 percent by year’s end and to 4.2 percent by the end of 2024. While this is often interpreted as meaning people will lose jobs, booming migration means it is more likely unemployment will largely increase because of population growth.
Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics, said forward indicators of labour demand had also softened, and he expected further increases in the unemployment rate in early 2024.
“While the unemployment rate ticked up in October, overall, we see this a relatively strong print, and shows the labour market continues to defy the gravity of slowing activity and softening forward indicators,” he said.
