Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to take the stage on Friday in the wake of the latest snapshot of the U.S. labor conditions and another round of surprisingly robust tariff hikes from the White House.
Powell will be speaking at 11:25 a.m. Eastern Friday at the annual conference for the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing in Arlington, Va. Powell is scheduled to provide some remarks on his economic outlook before sitting down for a moderated discussion.
Investors should be watching for whether Powell reiterates that tariffs can be looked-through on Friday, even in the face of President Donald Trump’s latest tariff increases. Under the latest plan, there will be a minimum 10% tariff on all imports of foreign goods starting Saturday, according to the White House. On Wednesday, the Trump administration will also impose higher, individualized tariffs ranging from 48% to 10% on countries with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits.
Economists estimate those levies would raise the effective tariff to above 25%—much higher than the rate of less than 10% expected by markets.
The latest tariff announcement is expected to spur stagflation, a toxic combination of weak growth and high inflation, in the U.S. That could make it difficult for Fed officials to address weak growth with the usual medicine of cutting interest rates, lest that make inflation worse.
Powell previously noted following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 that his base case was that higher inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs proposed up to that point would be more “transitory.”
If Fed officials believe they can look through the current slate of tariff hikes, much like an oil price shock, it would open the door to further interest rate cuts if the economy starts to show signs of deterioration.
Traders are already taking that bet, pricing in on Thursday a 32% chance that the Fed cuts its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the upcoming May meeting—up from just 12% odds a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.