To The Moon

FED’s December Projections Have Exposed a New Market Reality.The numbers out of today’s FOMC release should freeze every investor in their tracks.Unemployment is now projected to climb to 4.5% in 2025.Seven Fed officials penciled in zero rate cuts for 2026.And the Fed’s median rate outlook for 2028 still sits at 3.1%, miles above the “easy money” markets were betting on.This is not dovish. This is not easing.This is the Fed quietly admitting inflation is not dead and won’t be for years.Bond markets reacted instantly. Treasury yields spiked. Rate sensitive sectors cracked. And futures whipsawed as traders realized the Fed’s path is far tighter than the market narrative of the last eight weeks.The message is brutal:If the Fed is right, growth slows.If the market is right, inflation stays sti

BREAKING: GLOBAL MARKETS JUST ENTERED THE MOST IMPORTANT WEEK OF 2025. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ chart needs to hold above trend at $684-685 or next level of support is at $680 (then lower). But, if it holds then $688 and $690+ (check chart to study it)SPY futures ticked 0.1% higher, sitting just shy of an all-time high. $Netflix(NFLX)$ jumped 1.5% pre-market after new antitrust concerns surfaced around its Warner Bros. acquisition.Several Fed officials hinted at a rate cut on Wednesday. But under the optimism lies a deeper uncertainty whether the rate path stays friendly in 2026, and whether the AI-driven surge is truly sustainable.Bond markets sold off after ECB’s Schnabel declared that European

15 BULLISH Things Jerome Powell Has Said (or Could Say) that are DOVISHStatements that imply easing, rate cuts, or confidence inflation is falling 1. “We are seeing clear and sustained disinflation in several key components.”2. “The balance of risks to our dual mandate is becoming more two-sided.”3. “The labor market is cooling, and wage growth is moderating.”4. “We are prepared to adjust policy as needed to support the economy.”5. “Inflation expectations remain well anchored, which gives us flexibility.”6. “We don’t need inflation to be at 2% to begin reducing the policy rate.”7. “Policy is already in a restrictive stance, and real rates are near their peak.”8. “We see risks of overtightening and will take them into account.”9. “Several indicators show supply and demand in labor markets a

GLOBAL MARKETS JUST FIRED A WARNING SHOT BEFORE PCE.This morning at 10:00am EST will change everything. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and European futures rose as traders positioned ahead of the most important inflation print of 2025 PCE and FEDs expected rate cut on Dec 10.The numbers are already shifting:SPY and European markets up 0.2%Asian markets erased a 0.7% drop to secure a second week of gains.Confidence is returning not from tech euphoria, but from rising expectations of a 25 bps Fed cut.Bitcoin holds $92,000 for now.Copper just hit a new high.Silver flipped from red to green.But the real story is in the labor market.Treasury yields settled after Thursday’s selloff, driven by data showing the job market is not cracking it’s tightenin

US labor market is tightening in a way that should unsettle everyone. Jobless claims just fell to a 3-year low, while the unemployment rate has hovered under 4% for 23 straight months the longest streak since the 1960s. Productivity, meanwhile, surged 4.7% last quarter, the fastest pace in two decades.But here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud:AI is doing the heavy lifting and it’s replacing more than it’s hiring.Corporate surveys show 37% of firms have already automated tasks previously done by employees. Tech companies report efficiency gains of 15–30% after cutting staff. The average US worker now outputs the equivalent of 1.4 workers from 2019.This isn’t a healthy labor market.It’s a labor market being hollowed out in real timemade “stronger” because machines don’t quit, don’t sl

THIS IS BAD: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ just went GREEN ahead of the most important payrolls print in 2025.As long as it can hold above 684 and 680 this week it should break 690 within 9 days. This chart confirms it (make sure to study it).Stocks in Asia and Europe surged overnight.US futures stayed firmly green.Traders are now betting that a Fed rate cut could ignite a worldwide rally into year-end so a massive explosion is coming.Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.3%, with autos and industrials leading.Asian markets hit their highest levels in two weeks, powered by Japanese heavyweights.SPY is set for an eighth gain in 9 sessions.But here’s the part nobody is highlighting.Global bonds slumped again.Japanese yields are now driving the entire world’s

The labour market is no longer strong and 6 months from now it will be worse.Job openings have fallen over 30% from last year. Layoff announcements are up 42%.Behind the headlines, pressure is building everywhere:US foreclosures have risen 9 straight quarters, with filings up 34% YoY.Rents are at records over 50% of tenants now spend more than a third of their income just to stay housed.Homelessness surged 12% this year, the largest jump on record.The market is whispering what the data will shout in six months.AI is accelerating the shift.Nearly 20–25% of task-based jobs are expected to be automated or restructured by mid-2026.Back-office roles, customer support, logistics, and entry-level analysis are already being rebuilt around models not manpower.This isn’t a slowdown.It’s a reshaping.

Markets aren't paying attention to US payroll (labor market data) $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will need to break this $684 level to climb higher towards $690 (it should hit within 10 days) Key level of support is at $678-$680 (check chart to confirm)The day the market revealed its direction without saying a word.While headlines focused elsewhere, SPY climbed for a second straight session (this is why Dec 15 $690 is a good swing play)SPY rose 0.2%, extending the cautious rebound from November’s pullback.Treasuries firmed. The Dollar strengthened.Bitcoin surged above $93,000, hitting a two-week high after shedding more than $1 trillion in value during the recent downturn.The tape moved before the narrative caught up.All of it is happening ahead

BREAKING: Dec opens with $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down almost 1%A single session revealing how fragile the market really is.SPY key levels of support are at $678 and $675. If we fail that there big demand zone from $670-$672.50 (see chart below).The day the “soft-landing” dream met its first real test.While traders positioned for a calm December, Bitcoin collapsed below $87,000, triggering a broad crypto-equity spillover.SPY futures slipped 0.5%. MAG7 all opened red. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 1.1% in pre-market alone.The market moved before the bell even rang.Japan fired the second shot.The 2-year JGB yield surged to its highest level since 2008, after Governor Ueda delivered the strongest

10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+ (possibly 710+)1. 25–50 bp cut on Dec 10 (releasing dot plot)→ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 2. Decrease in November inflation (CPI) report→ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Visa(V)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 3. BITCOIN rally back towards $100,000+ and $120,000+→