To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Looks like the market is slowly waking up, one percentage point at a time. GOOG is about as close to a guaranteed AI winner as you can find.

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  seems to be recovering its losses now, while GOOGL just keeps sinking deeper into the red. This price action makes no sense. Do people actually think Google is the worst AI company out there right now? Basically everyone else is up 8-10% including Oracle, AMZN, MSFT, and now even META is clawing back its losses. Just great.

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ It looks like the setup is fading every time it touches 335. Whether AMZN releases good earnings or poor, I wouldn't be surprised if they push it down further.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ I stepped away during lunch, saw the market reaction, sold my puts and repositioned into calls, listened to Warsh's answers, then went to pick up some fishing gear with my boys. After the close I see my puts would have been up and now my calls are way down. What kind of regulated market is this. Oh well. It's not personal, it's just pretzels.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This could be close to $220 right before earnings. Huang seems to be showing up everywhere, and just from his body language, it feels like one of the best earnings reports is coming, better than ever. Bank of America said the same in their latest note with a $350 price target.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Price action on $Alphabet(GOOG)$  pretty much tells the whole story right now. $Microsoft(MSFT)$  and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  can burn cash after hours and the market just shrugs it off. Everything gets forgiven. Bears should probably be very careful at this point.

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$  Ended the session on a strong note. This stock never should have dropped this much. Weak hands just create more opportunity for others — it's that simple. I think 350 is coming very soon, and 450 by end of year.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVDA looks set to head toward 214. That might take some pressure off the broader semis space, including SOXL, AMD, and NBIS.

The market might still be underestimating hyperscalers. Morgan Stanley estimates they're generating 31% ROIC in AI infrastructure businesses and 25%-46% ROIC in AI inference businesses. If those numbers hold, the AI capex story looks very different. A lot of the focus has been on how much companies are spending on data centers, GPUs, and infrastructure. But the bigger question is what kind of returns those investments will actually produce. If AI infrastructure spending is generating strong returns, the largest cloud companies could see massive free cash flow expansion over time. Names worth watching: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$  I'm hoping Microsoft's earnings can give the broader software space a lift. If that happens, the rotation into software could actually gain some traction.