Mortimer Arthur

    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-31
      $Apple(AAPL)$  I don't think the Q3 guidance matters much here. The Q4 foldable phone launch looks like it could be the biggest iPhone release in Apple's history, plus there's the glasses and other stuff. Feels like the easiest buy-and-hold name on the market right now.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-30
      $Apple(AAPL)$ I find it kind of amusing that Apple is only planning around $11B to $14B in capex for fiscal 2026. The closest hyperscaler comparison is Meta at $145B. That's some crazy spending. Mark Z. said he wants to spend even more next year, so investors headed for the exits and a nice 9% dump followed. Metaverse 2.0? On Bloomberg, I heard a report suggesting Apple will have a blowout quarter because of strong iPhone sales in China, so that sounds hopeful for today's earnings. Whether the stock price rises or not, that's still good for Apple in a declining smartphone market.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-30
      $Microsoft(MSFT)$ The point about operating leases not being counted as capex is worth keeping in mind. It does look like the accountants might be taking advantage of record highs to cash out some shares and treat themselves to a few new boats for Christmas. Not financial advice.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-30
      $Apple(AAPL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ A rocket ship faces a little turbulence on the way up. This one has fierce dips and fierce rips. I think we keep ripping. I'm in, banging the chips. Not financial advice, just my opinion.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-27
      $SpaceX(SPCX)$ Just Starlink alone could be worth 1 trillion in 5 years, and by then TSLA will have merged. Not to mention the AI real estate side — together that looks like another 2 trillion in 5 years. Over the next 36 months, annual revenue could run around 500-600 billion if Tesla does merge. If SpaceX today were the umbrella corp Elon seems to want it to become, its annual revenue would be somewhere near 200 billion. AAPL does about 450 billion in annual revenue with a 2 trillion valuation. SpaceX is expected to start a leasing contract on its AI warehouses at 1 billion per month. That is 12 billion on top of the current 18 billion in annual revenue, bringing it to roughly 30 billion annually. Combined, Tesla and SpaceX revenue today si
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-22
      $Micron Technology(MU)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Boeing(BA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ Alright, for the chart experts out there, what's the next move from here? Is it a straight climb higher, or is there something else in play?
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-21
      $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ TD Cowen's report shows Meta, Microsoft, and Google were behind a record 9.6GW of data center leasing in Q2. There's another 12.5GW currently in the pipeline. OpenAI has also raised its 2030 infrastructure target to 30GW, which really points to how the demand for AI infrastructure just keeps surging.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-21
      The AI monetization story is beginning to materialize. If Microsoft integrates models like Kimi into Copilot, the opportunity extends beyond just adding AI capabilities. It could open up multiple layers of software revenue: traditional licensing, per-seat upgrades for Copilot access, and additional usage-based pricing for AI inference. The larger opportunity might be in efficiency. Running Copilot on lower-cost models while maintaining premium pricing could gradually improve margins over time. The AI transition is already underway, and $Microsoft(MSFT)$  looks well-positioned to capture a significant part of it.
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-20
      $Apple(AAPL)$  While others rush to build ever-larger models and burn through capital, Apple seems to be quietly engineering what could be the most profitable position in the entire AI ecosystem. The company's measured strategy, which many analysts initially viewed as defensive, is coming into sharper focus now. It looks far more aggressive upon closer inspection. Apple isn't trying to win the model-training arms race. Instead, it's methodically building ownership over the distribution layer that every AI company needs to reach consumers. This changes the investment thesis significantly. Apple can leverage its massive installed base as a high-margin revenue engine, potentially without shouldering the same crushi
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    • Mortimer ArthurMortimer Arthur
      ·07-17
      $Apple(AAPL)$ The options activity on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is intense, with traders piling into short-term $330 weeklies and October $360 calls. It looks like they're riding the AI wave hard rather than backing off after that recent 5% move. There was some serious action with aggressive ask-side sweeps on those July $330 calls. This could lead to some sharp moves near the $330 to $335 area in the near term. October $360 calls are also dominating, with trades way above open interest. It seems institutions still see upside potential into the fourth quarter, so $360 is a level to watch for swing targets. On the positive side, with China clearing Apple Intelligence, the broader AI rollout is set. However
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