$UVXY$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The stock market sold off fairy heavily into the 6500-6550 support zone for $SPX on November 14, but then it rallied strongly off of that support area. That support has been tested several times and continues to get an A+ on the test. But overhead, there is a myriad of resistance, so for now $SPX remains in a trading range. The index has rallied back to and slightly exceeded its declining 20-day moving average, near 6750. Above that, however, there is a downtrend line at about 6850 and then the all-time highs, at 6900. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to march higher, though, as traders have been steadily buying puts probably more as a protective measure than a bearish speculation. Regardless, as long
By Lawrence G. McMillan We have been trading this seasonal spread annually every year since 1994, except for 1995. Last year, we were stopped out with a rather large loss after 53 trading days. The spread was sitting very near our stop one day, and then jumped over six points higher the next day, costing an additional $2,520 per contract. In its current form, we buy RBOB Gasoline futures and sell Heating Oil futures, with both contracts expiring in February of the following year. The spread is entered in late November and is normally exited in late December or early January. We do not use options in the spread. We have looked many times at trying to incorporate options, but the time value premium of February options bought in November is just too damagin
By Lawrence G. McMillan Stocks sold off early in the week, but traders were sort of waiting around for the NVDA earnings, which were released after the close on Wednesday, November 19th. When those earnings were positive and guidance was positive, a monster rally took place. NVDA itself was up 10 points, but $SPX really took the news in a very positive way, and it rose 110 points on Thursday morning. Then, a harsh dose of reality set in, and $SPX experienced one of the sharpest drops in recent months losing nearly 240 points from its highs, to finish near the lows of the day. Not only that, but signs of panic in the volatility space accompanied that massive price reversal. This has produced some oversold conditions, but "oversold does not mean buy," as we've said hundreds of times before.
By Lawrence G. McMillan For over a week now, strong selloffs have been followed fairly quickly by strong rallies. This is the type of action that occurs in a trading range environment, and we might well be in one of those for a while now. There is resistance at 6900 (the all-time highs). Furthermore, support emerged at 6630 (last Friday's lows) to go along with the stronger support level in the 6500-6550 area. Today's low (so far) was 6646, which would reinforce that general area 6630-6646 as support. There is a very mixed picture emanating from our various indicators another fact which might suggest a trading range market. The equity-only put-call ratios are still negative for stocks. That is, the ratios are rising. The standard ratio has made new relative highs on several days this week.
$UVXY$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After having gapped to new all-time highs a little more than a week ago, the broad stock market has gone into a modest (so far) corrective mode. $SPX has now closed both of the gaps that were in place from late October, and has closed below the first support level of 6750. This is not a major breakdown of the chart at this point. $SPX has merely pulled back to its rising 20-day moving average. The next support level is the 6500-6550 level that has been tested and held several times. If that were to be broken, then a much more bearish outlook would be in store. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise, so their sell signals (for the stock market) of a couple of weeks ago remain in place. As long as the ratio
$VXX$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market eventually shrugged off the most recent "tariff tantrum" and moved to new all-time highs. The breakout came on two gap days to the upside -- very strong action. That created support at the old highs, near 6750. There is also the major support below there at 6500-6550. The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals however, since they made a bottom and began to rise over a week ago. There has been some back-and-forth action in the ratios over the past couple of days, which might bring these sell signals into question. However, the computer analysis programs continue to grade them as "sell." Market breadth has deteriorated badly over the past
$BOX$ $XYZ$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Recently, there have been some articles in the media – both print and social – about box spreads and how people are using them to get reduced-cost loans. Some of these articles lacked full information and others seem to miss the point completely, so we thought we’d explain how this whole thing works. Definition A box spread involves four options – two puts and two calls, two striking prices, and all with just one expiration date. It is actually a form of arbitrage that has been available in the option markets since day 1. For example, in a box spread, one might be selling a call credit spread and also selling a put credit spread with the exact same te