By Lawrence G. McMillan The market as measured by $SPX continues to trade in a narrow range between roughly 7600 and 7800. A clear breakout of that range would generate a momentum trade. Considering that the range is only about 3% of $SPX's value, it's amazing that it has lasted as long as it has. The broad market is presenting a different picture, and we'll get to that in the next article. $SPX rallied earlier this week, but that was mostly a bounce off the latest test of the 7600 support level last Friday. That rally barely brought $SPX back up to its declining 20-day Moving Average. Now, after poor earnings by AMZN and INTC, $SPX is selling off again and is right back in the support range of 7580-7620. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise, and that is bearish for stocks. As long
By Lawrence G. McMillan The Cboe (followed by other exchanges) has extended the trading hours for certain stocks and ETFs. This has already taken place, although not every option trading platform has implemented its trading for the new hours. The morning extended session runs from 7:30 a.m. (Eastern time) to 9:25 a.m. Then regular option trading begins at 9:30 a.m. The extended afternoon session runs from 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m. That isn’t as much of an extension, but does give one the opportunity to trade for a short while after the NYSE closes. At one time in the past, options on most stocks traded until 4:10 p.m., but that was discontinued after large institutions complained that they were sometimes forced to mark their position in a stock with a 4:00 p.m. price (NYSE close), while optio
$VIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan As time drags on, $SPX continues to trade within the trading range that has lasted since late July. This is marked in figure 1 by the box on the upper right. The current box has support at 7580-7620, which has been tested several times and is being tested again today. There is some resistance at 7750-7760 (the highs of several recent trading days), with more substantial resistance at the all-time highs, 7820-7840. Let's look at the individual indicators. They are still mixed reflecting the trading range environment. Equity-only put-call ratios are both on sell signals. Countering the negativity of the put-call ratios is an improvement in breadth. Breadth was nicely positive on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After a slightly worse-than-expected CPI reading this week, the market finally made a move with some gusto. $SPX fell about 1.1% the day after that, with the Dow ($DJX) doing much better, but tech indices faring far worse. So $SPX is back inside the previous trading range, and the attempted breakout in earlier October is now officially a false breakout (pink circle on the chart in Figure 1). There wasn't any follow-through to the CPI-related selling, though, so now $SPX is back in a dull, trading range environment. There is resistance at 7820-7840, with support at 7580-7620. Equity-only put-call ratios
Introducing the New Daily Strategist: Redesigned for Active Traders
By Lawrence G. McMillan We're excited to introduce the newly redesigned The Daily Strategist, McMillan Analysis Corp.'s premium options advisory service. We've streamlined the format to make it easier for subscribers to identify trading opportunities, follow our recommendations, and manage open positions. The new Daily Strategist organizes our proprietary research, market commentary, and trading recommendations into three distinct daily communications. What's New? 1. McMillan's Morning SignalsStart the trading day with a systematic overview of market conditions and potential trading opportunities identified by our proprietary indicators, including momentum signals, put-call ratios, volatility analysis, and more. 2. McMillan's Morning Market CommentaryLarry McMillan's daily interpretation o
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Things seemed so promising on Tuesday, when $SPX traded at new all-time intraday and closing highs. But almost immediately after the market closed that day, selling set in. While it hasn't been heavy selling, it has pushed $SPX back down into the previous trading range. Essentially, the upside breakout wasn't a breakout at all, but merely a slight extension of the trading range. The net result is that there is still resistance at the all-time highs, 7820-7844. There is near-term support at 7720, then stronger support as shown by the red horizontal line in Figure 1, at 7580-7620. The market internals hav