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又龙
又龙
·
2021-04-29
gupiao
Tianfeng Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays? How to view May
税期影响下，4月不紧，5月会紧吗？货币政策到底什么取向？如何看待5月市场？继续交易通胀还是交易流动性？
Tianfeng Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays? How to view May
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又龙
又龙
·
2021-04-29
oh
Tiger Carrying Zhencheng Investment Li Jianwei Initiated SPAC Landing on Nasdaq Tonight
老虎与真成投资李剑威联合发起的SPAC（TradeUP Global Corporation）最终定价10美元，今晚将在纳斯达克挂牌上市！
Tiger Carrying Zhencheng Investment Li Jianwei Initiated SPAC Landing on Nasdaq Tonight
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又龙
又龙
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2021-04-27
tiger kkk
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又龙
又龙
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2021-04-26
C C C
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又龙
又龙
·
2021-04-11
niu niuniu
如何在一個月內虧掉400萬
@奥地利的春天：
哎！今年第一季度真是讓人痛哭流涕的三個月[流淚] 看着兜兜裏的錢一點點的減少真是心疼的不行。 本來2月底計劃着換個車，讓自己也開開豪車顯擺一下的，可惜人算不如天算！幸福來得太突然了。讓人猝不及防 痛哭流涕 現在真是搏一搏跑車變摩托。騎上我心愛的小摩托他永遠不會堵車[流淚] [流淚] [流淚] 爲什麼我會如此悲慘呢！ 融資，成也融資敗也融資！成也科技股敗也科技股。 你們以爲這就完了嗎？？？然而並沒有。。。[捂臉] 你瞅瞅，這是人乾的事嗎 那現在總完了吧！？！？然而並沒有，綜合賬戶也是虧損 瞅瞅這是人乾的事嗎？[噴血] 今年怕是已經不同往年了！我反覆思量決定重置我的倉位，太慘了！我賺錢的地方來自科技股，從140萬去年賺到了250萬，怎麼來的呢！槓桿，加到什麼程度呢？1倍打滿。高收益的同時也是高風險，這個直接參照單日虧150億的大哥即可。 去年是科技股賺了錢，今年雖然第一季度使我有點傷了元氣，但是沒事！我今年看好傳統行業，所以重新配置了傳統行業的票，去年科技股的該減就剪了，該斬就斬了。 股票虧錢其實挺簡單的，只要你不停的買賣虧錢就是妥妥的，大哥們買賣股票看好了就不要動了，多關注關注你買公司的新聞即可。 關於後世呢！最近其實我挺擔心的！我覺得可能還會下跌，爲什麼呢！因爲這些公司的動向和某些大公司高層的行動讓我覺得近期可能還會下跌。今年是個不平靜的一年，希望大家小心划船注意倉位，融資必死（心態）。 第二季
如何在一個月內虧掉400萬
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又龙
又龙
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2021-04-10
catb.....
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又龙
又龙
·
2021-04-09
gsx
@Alastair2021：
$跟誰學(GSX)$摩根大通分析師DS Kim升級GSX Techedu(紐約證券交易所：GSX)從減持下調至中性，並將目標價從60美元下調至37美元。不想玩啦，只想解套啊，漲到個35_37應該還是有戲的吧！
$跟誰學(GSX)$摩根大通分析師DS Kim升級GSX Techedu(紐約證券交易所：GSX)從減持下調至中性，並將目標價從60美元下調至37美元。不想玩啦，只想解套啊，漲到個35_37應該還是有戲的吧！
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又龙
又龙
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2021-03-29
au .....
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又龙
又龙
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2021-03-26
rlx vvvvv
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又龙
又龙
·
2021-03-23
biden plan
拜登搞基建、抗疫、環保……這五隻股要起飛？
@爱投学院：
拜大爺不愧是時間管理大師，上任後就馬不停蹄幾手抓。先是1.9萬億，然後又是基建刺激計劃，同時還要抗疫，搞環保，簡直忙得不得了！大換血之下，這些股可能要起飛？$克里夫天然資源公司(CLF)$ $卡特彼勒(CAT)$ $Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.(KL)$ $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ $福特汽車(F)$ 求推廣 @Tony特別帥 @愛發紅包的虎妞 @小虎AV 免責聲明：僅供投資交流，不構成任何推薦和操作建議，不對投資者盈虧負責。股市有風險，投資者需謹慎。愛投學院與老虎證券聯合推出最暢銷北美投資課程《零基礎打造你的百萬投資組合》
拜登搞基建、抗疫、環保……這五隻股要起飛？
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How to view May","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131999306","media":"智通财经网","summary":"税期影响下，4月不紧，5月会紧吗？货币政策到底什么取向？如何看待5月市场？继续交易通胀还是交易流动性？","content":"<p><b>This article is from the WeChat official account \"Gu Shou Bin Fa\" and authored by the Tianfeng Total Volume Team.</b></p><p>Macroeconomics: Is the impact of the pandemic in India overestimated?</p><p>The epidemic situation in India has deteriorated rapidly. India's manufacturing PMI has already declined in March, when new cases increased; As the pandemic intensifies, India's manufacturing sector may face relative pressure.<b>The market is concerned that the poor operation of India's manufacturing sector, as a link in the global industrial chain, could exacerbate the global supply and demand mismatch and have a real negative impact on the global economy. However, our view is that the market may have overestimated the impact of the out-of-control pandemic in India on the global economy.</b></p><p>The first thing to make clear is that the Indian government does not have sufficient incentive to lock down the country again.</p><p>India imposed a nationwide lockdown at the end of March 2020, and the economy nearly came to a standstill in April. Under pressure from economic stagnation and surging unemployment, the Indian government began gradually easing production restrictions in some industries in late April. The first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in India occurred in August, but the Indian government did not reimpose the lockdown order at that time; instead, it further relaxed the lockdown restrictions. India's economic problems did not ease in 2021, and the Indian government still faced a dilemma between economic growth and epidemic prevention and control, lacking sufficient incentive to impose another nationwide lockdown.</p><p><b>Therefore, the intensity of India's subsequent lockdown measures is unlikely to rise to the level of April 2020, and is more likely to approach the level of the partial lockdown in June-August 2020. At that time, India's industrial production and export situation could serve as a reference variable for deriving subsequent impacts.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industrial production</b>India's industrial production index declined by 11.4% year-on-year from June to August 2020. The industries most affected included labor-intensive industries such as timber, clothing, beverages, textiles, printing and reproduction, and furniture, as well as high-value-added industries such as transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and machinery.<b>The industries with relatively normal production are pharmaceutical and chemical products, indicating that the Indian government provides strong support to these industries.</b></p><p><b>Regarding export trade,</b>The industries that account for a large proportion of India's exports can be divided into four main categories: textiles and apparel, agricultural and livestock products, mineral products, and chemicals (including raw materials for pharmaceuticals). The export performance of these industries was quite divergent from June to August 2020.<b>Labor-intensive industrial and agricultural products are particularly affected.</b>The export share of industries such as shellac gum, plant materials for knitting, and knitted and crocheted garments has declined significantly;<b>primary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Mineral products and chemical raw materials are less affected,</b>The export share of industries such as steel, cotton, grains, and organic chemicals has increased significantly. Based on data from India's production and exports from June to August 2020, we believe that the pandemic in India will not cause a serious supply and demand mismatch and will not have a significant negative impact on the global economy.</p><p>Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays?</p><p><b>Following extreme structural changes, the cost-effectiveness of small and mid-cap stocks has indeed improved:</b>1) In terms of market capitalization, the valuation ratio of large and small caps is at a historical high. 2) At the trading level, trading congestion, measured by the proportion of top trading volume, is at its highest level since 2005. 3) After experiencing impacts such as financial deleveraging, trade wars, and COVID-19, small and medium-sized market capitalizations are more resilient during the profit recovery phase. 4) Financial regulation and the registration system have absorbed the premium of shell companies in small-cap stocks, which has now returned to the level before the speculation in 2013. 5) The concentration of shareholding by leading incremental funds has declined, and the market is further accepting the decline in market capitalization.</p><p><b>However, mid-range cost-effectiveness does not mean a complete reversal of style:</b>1) Stable profitability and the ability to withstand macroeconomic and industry cycle fluctuations remain the moat of large enterprises; The probability of small and mid-cap stocks emerging as top-performing stocks remains relatively low. 2) The increased internal concentration of institutional funds and the increase in the number of \"big funds\" will also drive the trend of increasing the market value of shares held.</p><p><b>Summary of the \"comeback\" experience of small and medium-sized stocks since 2019:</b>Over the past two years, more than 40% of stocks have experienced negative gains during the bull market, indicating a clear structural characteristic of the market. Large-cap stocks have achieved significant excess returns compared to small-cap stocks, but some small and medium-sized stocks have also stood out.</p><p><b>Lesson 1: Buying small and medium-sized enterprises requires a top-down perspective to turn the tide in individual stocks with high industry concentration.</b>Among the top 99 gainers, the six major industries (electronics + chemicals + pharmaceuticals + electrical equipment + machinery + food) accounted for more than 70%. Compared to leading companies, small and medium-sized enterprises are more significantly affected by industry size and the profit cycle they are in.</p><p><b>Lesson 2: Although there are other driving forces, they are still largely positively correlated with industry profitability.</b>There is a clear positive correlation between improved profitability at the industry level and the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry. In addition, the food, electronics, and military industries have significantly enjoyed valuation premiums beyond profitability over the past two years; The performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the media and telecommunications sectors failed to reflect the improvement in the industry's prosperity.</p><p><b>Tip 3: When buying small and medium-sized enterprises, it's best not to choose industries where concentration is increasing too rapidly.</b>If industry concentration does not change significantly or even declines, then either the industry is in a growth stage and the market is expanding (mainly in growth sectors). Either the industry is in a mature stage, but the overall supply and demand pattern has improved, and the bargaining power with upstream and downstream companies has increased (mainly in cyclical sectors).</p><p><b>Lesson 4: At the individual stock level, when the overall price is not high, short- to medium-term valuations are even less important.</b>In fact, most companies with significant gains had higher absolute valuation levels and valuation percentiles than their respective industries at the end of 2018.</p><p><b>Lesson 5: Valuation divergence is a result, not a cause; there is also a premium among small and medium-sized companies.</b>Looking back, the top-performing small and mid-cap stocks of the past two years did not have a valuation advantage at the end of 2018; On the contrary, at the peak of this bull market, valuation levels have widened significantly. Based on the degree of improvement in individual stock market conditions, a \"head premium\" and extreme structural pattern have also emerged within the small and medium-sized market capitalization, that is, a considerably high valuation premium has been given to high-performing stocks.</p><p><b>Lesson 6: Equity incentives and share buybacks may increase the success rate.</b>Of the 20 small and medium-sized companies with the largest increases, 16 have announced equity incentives or repurchases in the past two years. Among them, 13 of the repurchased shares were used for equity incentive cancellation, a proportion far higher than that of the entire A-share market.</p><p>Fixed Income: How should we view the liquidity situation and bond market direction in May?</p><p>China's economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 exceeded its potential growth rate, which is the most important prerequisite for overall policy. Although the economic data for the first quarter of this year was not strong, it was not weak overall, and the probability that the economy may return to below its potential growth rate in the current and future is not high. Therefore, there is no possibility of further easing in overall policy space, which also means that there are constraints on the lower limit of interest rates.</p><p>In its press conference in April, the People's Bank of China continued to emphasize \"adhering to the cross-cycle design concept,\" \"prioritizing stability, maintaining composure, and cherishing normal monetary policy space,\" and \"maintaining a leading global position in macroeconomic policy.\" Therefore, we judge that the overall policy orientation remains prudent and neutral, and there is still a possibility of tightening corresponding monetary policy behavior from a top-level design perspective. Even if it is maintained, it will at most be a tight balance.</p><p>Since 2019, the central bank has cherished normal monetary policy and monetary policy. In terms of specific actions, the central bank's continuous net liquidity injection generally does not exceed three months. This was also the case during the small and medium-sized bank incident in 2019, the epidemic, and the Yongmei incident in 2020.</p><p>Excluding the central bank's injection, we estimate that the funding gap in the banking system in May will be larger than the same period last year, and significantly stronger than the general seasonal trend. Therefore, static considerations suggest that the liquidity situation will tighten compared to April. Based on the central bank's operations in April, fluctuations in funding rates may still increase in May, given the peak tax period and pressure on government bond supply.</p><p>We still emphasize that the left side or turning point from a macroeconomic perspective this year may not be significant, and the central bank's behavioral orientation is to tighten rather than loosen. This premise undoubtedly poses a major obstacle to grasping the market rhythm. The unclear turning point corresponds to a complex market environment. We still recommend that the market operation be conducted according to the safety margin of coupon rates, without being impatient or rushed.</p><p>Financial Engineering: Upper Edge of Volatility, Window Period for Risk Events</p><p>The timing system signals indicate that the moving average distance has changed slightly from -1.76% in the previous period to -1.96%, indicating that the market continues to fluctuate. The most pressing variable in the short term is changes in market sentiment. Entering a vacuum period for macroeconomic data releases, the market's risk score is low, and the rebound is expected to continue. In terms of price and volume, weekly trading volume has decreased, and market risk appetite may briefly increase; Key conclusions of the industry model: From a medium-term perspective, we continue to recommend upstream cyclical sectors; The long-term prosperity model still points towards power equipment and new energy sources. From a short-term perspective, the consumer services and trade sectors are worth paying attention to.</p><p>From the perspective of the timing system, the distance between the wind All-A long-term moving average (120-day) and the short-term moving average (20-day), which we define to distinguish the overall market environment, remained flat. The 20-day moving average closed at 5286 points, and the 120-day moving average closed at 5360. The short-term moving average continued to be below the long-term moving average. The distance between the two moving averages changed slightly from -1.96% in the previous period to -1.38%. The distance between the moving averages was below the 3% threshold, and the market continued to fluctuate.</p><p>Under our timing system, when the market enters a volatile pattern, the variable our system focuses on most in the short term is changes in market sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will face multiple macroeconomic events. The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting next Thursday, and PMI data will be released on Friday. Faced with uncertainty, market risk appetite may be somewhat curbed. In terms of price and volume, the market is currently at the upper edge of the range, with weekly trading volume hitting a new high in nearly a month. Given the volatile trend, the probability of a significant increase in market risk appetite is low. In terms of time, with the May Day holiday approaching after next week, uncertainties in overseas markets will also suppress risk appetite in the A-share market. Overall scores indicate that the market should be cautious next week.</p><p>Main conclusions of the style and industry model: According to Tianfeng Quantitative's Two-Beta style selection model, current interest rates are in our defined downward phase, and the economy has entered our defined upward phase. From a medium-term perspective, we continue to recommend the mid-to-upper reaches of the cycle. Looking ahead to the industry's prosperity in 2021, compared to the industry's own ranking over the past 10 years, the top industries were power equipment and semiconductors, both of which represented relatively good years in the past decade. In the short term, there are signs of capital inflows into the food and beverage and automotive sectors; Based on the overall time window, we highly recommend new energy sectors such as power equipment, upstream of the cycle, and food and beverage and automobiles.</p><p>Banks: What are your thoughts on China Merchants Bank's first-</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>The company released its Q1 2021 results: revenue of 84.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.64%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 32.015 billion, up 15.18% year-on-year, and the annualized weighted average ROE was 19.54%, up 0.78 percentage points year-on-year. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, the company's assets reached 8.66 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.02%.</p><p><b>Net profit growth rebounded significantly</b></p><p>Revenue growth has rebounded. Revenue in 1Q21 increased by 10.64% year-on-year, 2.94 percentage points higher than 7.7% at the end of 2020. Profit growth rebounded significantly. In Q1 2021, net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.18% year-on-year, a significant increase of 10.36 percentage points compared to the end of 2020, mainly due to scale growth, fee income and provision feedback. Profit before provisions increased by 9.25% year-on-year, an increase of 3.48 percentage points compared to the end of 2020.</p><p><b>Excellent asset structure and significant improvement in net interest margin compared to the previous period.</b></p><p>The expansion of loan scale is accelerating. Deposits grew by 12.84% in Q1 2021, supporting rapid asset expansion. At the end of March, assets reached 8.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%. In 1Q21, asset-side loans accounted for 61.3% of total assets, maintaining a relatively high level; Deposits on the liability side accounted for 73.7% of total liabilities, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, reducing reliance on interbank certificates of deposit.</p><p>Net interest margin increased significantly month-on-month. The net interest margin in 1Q21 was 2.52%, an increase of 11 basis points compared to 20Q4. The company benefited from the decrease in deposit costs driven by the increase in the proportion of demand deposits, as well as the increase in yields on interest-earning assets resulting from the increase in the proportion of high-yield assets. However, due to the cumulative effect of multiple LPR reductions in 2020, net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points year-on-year in 1Q21. Although monetary policy will return to neutral in 2021, considering the central bank's efforts to regulate internet deposits and ease competitive pressure on deposits, the cost of liabilities may remain stable, and the net interest margin is expected to remain stable year-on-year in 2021.</p><p><b>Excellent asset quality and low capital pressure</b></p><p>Asset quality is gradually recovering from the impact of the pandemic. The group's non-performing loan ratio in 1Q21 was 1.02%, a decrease of 5 basis points compared to the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio rose 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 438.88%, which is at a high level. China Merchants Bank's parent company's non-performing loan ratio, pending loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio in Q1 2021 were 1.04%, 0.73%, and 1.11%, respectively, a decrease of 5, 6, and 5 basis points compared to the end of 2020.</p><p>The company's AUM is growing steadily. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, retail AUM reached RMB 9.59 trillion, covering 161 million retail customers, representing quarter-on-quarter increases of 7.3% and 1.9%, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVTB\">Private bank</a>106,887 customers, representing an increase of 6.91% over the end of last year; The total assets of private banking clients under management reached RMB 2.98 trillion, an increase of 7.55% compared to the end of last year; The average total assets per household were 27.92 million yuan, an increase of 164,700 yuan compared to the end of last year.</p><p>ABC: AIA's core advantages are being strengthened</p><p><b>I. AIA Life creates a differentiated content platform through \"customized products + high-quality healthcare services + professional agents\".</b></p><p>The number of critical illness insurance policies in my country has exceeded 300 million, and the domestic critical illness insurance market has completed a leap from \"0 to 1\". On the demand side, the era of consumers awakening their insurance awareness and making independent purchases has arrived, while on the supply side, the homogenization of the products themselves and their promotion models still exists. Critical illness insurance has transitioned to an era of \"from 1 to more\". We believe that the three key points for success are professional consulting services, customized products, and differentiated services.</p><p>Based on this, AIA Life launched the modular customized critical illness series \"You Ruyi\", which achieves flexible customization of exclusive protection plans for different customer groups through a combination of \"core protection + personalized configuration\", and launched the critical illness product \"Chuanshi Ruyi\" for high-end customers. In addition to the core coverage for critical illnesses, customers are free to choose whether to add other liabilities and compensation amounts, including:</p><p>① For mild and moderate cases, compensation rates of 10%, 20%, 30%, 20%, 40%, and 60% can be selected, respectively, with a maximum of 5 compensation payments. ② Multiple compensation payments are made for severe and malignant tumors, and the compensation amount can be set independently; ③ Other supplementary insurance (medical insurance, life insurance, accident insurance, etc.). It also comes with the Health Friendship Insurance Amount Increasing Plan (which can increase the critical illness insurance amount by up to 50%) and the more relaxed critical illness project management. In addition, AIA has launched a critical illness product for high-end customers, focusing on the risk of income loss that high-net-worth individuals are most concerned about. It only covers critical illness liability and has a coverage amount of up to 2 million yuan without medical examination, making high-amount insurance more convenient. We expect this product to become a new growth.</p><p>At the same time, we will enrich the value-added services supporting our products to promote sales through services. AIA's Healthy Travel + Yu Congrong has been upgraded in conjunction with the new \"You Ruyi\" series of products. \"Healthy Travel\" has added the \"Daily Upward\" sum increase plan, which can increase the additional insurance benefit by up to 50% when achieving exercise goals. The \"Good Luck Makes You Calm\" critical illness project management service provides a full range of critical illness diagnosis and treatment services, including health consultation, expert outpatient clinics, expert hospitalization, expert surgery, and postoperative guidance. Furthermore, a new \"Calm Nutrition\" service has been added, providing customized nutritional guidance for insured individuals with malignant tumors; The \"Congrong Huizhen\" service assists newly insured children diagnosed with malignant tumors in providing comprehensive disease solutions.</p><p>For high-net-worth critical illness insurance customers, AIA has launched the \"Legacy of Calm\" service, which has upgraded its critical illness project management service and extended the service cycle from the original 180 days to one calendar year. After a customer is diagnosed with a serious illness, the \"Passing Down the Legend and Becoming More Calm\" service will arrange three expert clinics and multidisciplinary consultations at home and abroad. The Yu Congrong service is provided by AIA Life's self-built professional medical team, providing customers with higher response speed and service quality when seeking services. In addition, we believe that promoting services through phased initiatives (such as extending services to family members of critical illness insurance customers) will increase the driving force of services for product sales.</p><p>\"Youruyi\" is a new product series launched by AIA Life Insurance based on customers' multi-level protection needs, the professionalism of its sales team, and the need to expand into non-first-tier markets. We reiterate the importance of this series of products. We believe that 1) the \"Youruyi\" product series has broken away from the homogeneous competition of insurance products, making it difficult to compare prices, and focusing more on customer needs and on-demand combination allocation. 2) The core guarantee of relatively low prices solves the problem of the original products being \"comprehensive but expensive\", which helps to expand the customer base, including young customers born in the 1980s and middle-class families in non-first-tier cities. 3) Product strategies are difficult to replicate. The combination of numerous products requires the professional skills of agents, especially their ability to understand customer needs and their in-depth understanding of the products. Agents of other companies find it difficult to master such product strategies.</p><p><b>II. AIA Sichuan Branch officially opened on April 22, embarking on its expansion into the mainland market.</b></p><p>In November 2020, AIA Life began preparing to establish its Sichuan branch, and it has taken six months for the Sichuan branch to officially open. Chengdu, located in the center of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, has become an important focus for AIA Life in inland areas, and it will gradually expand from Chengdu to the next tier of cities in the future. We believe that AIA Life's next expansion area will select areas with strong economic vitality and abundant talent supply.</p><p>According to Beijing Business Today, after its application for a Sichuan branch was approved, AIA also submitted an application for another provincial branch. Referring to the progress of opening the Sichuan branch, we expect AIA Life to expand at a rate of two branches per year, while also expanding into the next-tier city in the existing branch area. The establishment of new branches may form a driving force for NBV growth in the next 3-5 years.</p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>Risk warnings: Deteriorating economic environment, poor monetary policy transmission, unexpected policy adjustments, and unexpected overseas epidemics.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays? How to view May</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays? How to view May\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 08:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article is from the WeChat official account \"Gu Shou Bin Fa\" and authored by the Tianfeng Total Volume Team.</b></p><p>Macroeconomics: Is the impact of the pandemic in India overestimated?</p><p>The epidemic situation in India has deteriorated rapidly. India's manufacturing PMI has already declined in March, when new cases increased; As the pandemic intensifies, India's manufacturing sector may face relative pressure.<b>The market is concerned that the poor operation of India's manufacturing sector, as a link in the global industrial chain, could exacerbate the global supply and demand mismatch and have a real negative impact on the global economy. However, our view is that the market may have overestimated the impact of the out-of-control pandemic in India on the global economy.</b></p><p>The first thing to make clear is that the Indian government does not have sufficient incentive to lock down the country again.</p><p>India imposed a nationwide lockdown at the end of March 2020, and the economy nearly came to a standstill in April. Under pressure from economic stagnation and surging unemployment, the Indian government began gradually easing production restrictions in some industries in late April. The first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in India occurred in August, but the Indian government did not reimpose the lockdown order at that time; instead, it further relaxed the lockdown restrictions. India's economic problems did not ease in 2021, and the Indian government still faced a dilemma between economic growth and epidemic prevention and control, lacking sufficient incentive to impose another nationwide lockdown.</p><p><b>Therefore, the intensity of India's subsequent lockdown measures is unlikely to rise to the level of April 2020, and is more likely to approach the level of the partial lockdown in June-August 2020. At that time, India's industrial production and export situation could serve as a reference variable for deriving subsequent impacts.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industrial production</b>India's industrial production index declined by 11.4% year-on-year from June to August 2020. The industries most affected included labor-intensive industries such as timber, clothing, beverages, textiles, printing and reproduction, and furniture, as well as high-value-added industries such as transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and machinery.<b>The industries with relatively normal production are pharmaceutical and chemical products, indicating that the Indian government provides strong support to these industries.</b></p><p><b>Regarding export trade,</b>The industries that account for a large proportion of India's exports can be divided into four main categories: textiles and apparel, agricultural and livestock products, mineral products, and chemicals (including raw materials for pharmaceuticals). The export performance of these industries was quite divergent from June to August 2020.<b>Labor-intensive industrial and agricultural products are particularly affected.</b>The export share of industries such as shellac gum, plant materials for knitting, and knitted and crocheted garments has declined significantly;<b>primary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Mineral products and chemical raw materials are less affected,</b>The export share of industries such as steel, cotton, grains, and organic chemicals has increased significantly. Based on data from India's production and exports from June to August 2020, we believe that the pandemic in India will not cause a serious supply and demand mismatch and will not have a significant negative impact on the global economy.</p><p>Strategy: Hold stocks or cash for the holidays?</p><p><b>Following extreme structural changes, the cost-effectiveness of small and mid-cap stocks has indeed improved:</b>1) In terms of market capitalization, the valuation ratio of large and small caps is at a historical high. 2) At the trading level, trading congestion, measured by the proportion of top trading volume, is at its highest level since 2005. 3) After experiencing impacts such as financial deleveraging, trade wars, and COVID-19, small and medium-sized market capitalizations are more resilient during the profit recovery phase. 4) Financial regulation and the registration system have absorbed the premium of shell companies in small-cap stocks, which has now returned to the level before the speculation in 2013. 5) The concentration of shareholding by leading incremental funds has declined, and the market is further accepting the decline in market capitalization.</p><p><b>However, mid-range cost-effectiveness does not mean a complete reversal of style:</b>1) Stable profitability and the ability to withstand macroeconomic and industry cycle fluctuations remain the moat of large enterprises; The probability of small and mid-cap stocks emerging as top-performing stocks remains relatively low. 2) The increased internal concentration of institutional funds and the increase in the number of \"big funds\" will also drive the trend of increasing the market value of shares held.</p><p><b>Summary of the \"comeback\" experience of small and medium-sized stocks since 2019:</b>Over the past two years, more than 40% of stocks have experienced negative gains during the bull market, indicating a clear structural characteristic of the market. Large-cap stocks have achieved significant excess returns compared to small-cap stocks, but some small and medium-sized stocks have also stood out.</p><p><b>Lesson 1: Buying small and medium-sized enterprises requires a top-down perspective to turn the tide in individual stocks with high industry concentration.</b>Among the top 99 gainers, the six major industries (electronics + chemicals + pharmaceuticals + electrical equipment + machinery + food) accounted for more than 70%. Compared to leading companies, small and medium-sized enterprises are more significantly affected by industry size and the profit cycle they are in.</p><p><b>Lesson 2: Although there are other driving forces, they are still largely positively correlated with industry profitability.</b>There is a clear positive correlation between improved profitability at the industry level and the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry. In addition, the food, electronics, and military industries have significantly enjoyed valuation premiums beyond profitability over the past two years; The performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the media and telecommunications sectors failed to reflect the improvement in the industry's prosperity.</p><p><b>Tip 3: When buying small and medium-sized enterprises, it's best not to choose industries where concentration is increasing too rapidly.</b>If industry concentration does not change significantly or even declines, then either the industry is in a growth stage and the market is expanding (mainly in growth sectors). Either the industry is in a mature stage, but the overall supply and demand pattern has improved, and the bargaining power with upstream and downstream companies has increased (mainly in cyclical sectors).</p><p><b>Lesson 4: At the individual stock level, when the overall price is not high, short- to medium-term valuations are even less important.</b>In fact, most companies with significant gains had higher absolute valuation levels and valuation percentiles than their respective industries at the end of 2018.</p><p><b>Lesson 5: Valuation divergence is a result, not a cause; there is also a premium among small and medium-sized companies.</b>Looking back, the top-performing small and mid-cap stocks of the past two years did not have a valuation advantage at the end of 2018; On the contrary, at the peak of this bull market, valuation levels have widened significantly. Based on the degree of improvement in individual stock market conditions, a \"head premium\" and extreme structural pattern have also emerged within the small and medium-sized market capitalization, that is, a considerably high valuation premium has been given to high-performing stocks.</p><p><b>Lesson 6: Equity incentives and share buybacks may increase the success rate.</b>Of the 20 small and medium-sized companies with the largest increases, 16 have announced equity incentives or repurchases in the past two years. Among them, 13 of the repurchased shares were used for equity incentive cancellation, a proportion far higher than that of the entire A-share market.</p><p>Fixed Income: How should we view the liquidity situation and bond market direction in May?</p><p>China's economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 exceeded its potential growth rate, which is the most important prerequisite for overall policy. Although the economic data for the first quarter of this year was not strong, it was not weak overall, and the probability that the economy may return to below its potential growth rate in the current and future is not high. Therefore, there is no possibility of further easing in overall policy space, which also means that there are constraints on the lower limit of interest rates.</p><p>In its press conference in April, the People's Bank of China continued to emphasize \"adhering to the cross-cycle design concept,\" \"prioritizing stability, maintaining composure, and cherishing normal monetary policy space,\" and \"maintaining a leading global position in macroeconomic policy.\" Therefore, we judge that the overall policy orientation remains prudent and neutral, and there is still a possibility of tightening corresponding monetary policy behavior from a top-level design perspective. Even if it is maintained, it will at most be a tight balance.</p><p>Since 2019, the central bank has cherished normal monetary policy and monetary policy. In terms of specific actions, the central bank's continuous net liquidity injection generally does not exceed three months. This was also the case during the small and medium-sized bank incident in 2019, the epidemic, and the Yongmei incident in 2020.</p><p>Excluding the central bank's injection, we estimate that the funding gap in the banking system in May will be larger than the same period last year, and significantly stronger than the general seasonal trend. Therefore, static considerations suggest that the liquidity situation will tighten compared to April. Based on the central bank's operations in April, fluctuations in funding rates may still increase in May, given the peak tax period and pressure on government bond supply.</p><p>We still emphasize that the left side or turning point from a macroeconomic perspective this year may not be significant, and the central bank's behavioral orientation is to tighten rather than loosen. This premise undoubtedly poses a major obstacle to grasping the market rhythm. The unclear turning point corresponds to a complex market environment. We still recommend that the market operation be conducted according to the safety margin of coupon rates, without being impatient or rushed.</p><p>Financial Engineering: Upper Edge of Volatility, Window Period for Risk Events</p><p>The timing system signals indicate that the moving average distance has changed slightly from -1.76% in the previous period to -1.96%, indicating that the market continues to fluctuate. The most pressing variable in the short term is changes in market sentiment. Entering a vacuum period for macroeconomic data releases, the market's risk score is low, and the rebound is expected to continue. In terms of price and volume, weekly trading volume has decreased, and market risk appetite may briefly increase; Key conclusions of the industry model: From a medium-term perspective, we continue to recommend upstream cyclical sectors; The long-term prosperity model still points towards power equipment and new energy sources. From a short-term perspective, the consumer services and trade sectors are worth paying attention to.</p><p>From the perspective of the timing system, the distance between the wind All-A long-term moving average (120-day) and the short-term moving average (20-day), which we define to distinguish the overall market environment, remained flat. The 20-day moving average closed at 5286 points, and the 120-day moving average closed at 5360. The short-term moving average continued to be below the long-term moving average. The distance between the two moving averages changed slightly from -1.96% in the previous period to -1.38%. The distance between the moving averages was below the 3% threshold, and the market continued to fluctuate.</p><p>Under our timing system, when the market enters a volatile pattern, the variable our system focuses on most in the short term is changes in market sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will face multiple macroeconomic events. The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting next Thursday, and PMI data will be released on Friday. Faced with uncertainty, market risk appetite may be somewhat curbed. In terms of price and volume, the market is currently at the upper edge of the range, with weekly trading volume hitting a new high in nearly a month. Given the volatile trend, the probability of a significant increase in market risk appetite is low. In terms of time, with the May Day holiday approaching after next week, uncertainties in overseas markets will also suppress risk appetite in the A-share market. Overall scores indicate that the market should be cautious next week.</p><p>Main conclusions of the style and industry model: According to Tianfeng Quantitative's Two-Beta style selection model, current interest rates are in our defined downward phase, and the economy has entered our defined upward phase. From a medium-term perspective, we continue to recommend the mid-to-upper reaches of the cycle. Looking ahead to the industry's prosperity in 2021, compared to the industry's own ranking over the past 10 years, the top industries were power equipment and semiconductors, both of which represented relatively good years in the past decade. In the short term, there are signs of capital inflows into the food and beverage and automotive sectors; Based on the overall time window, we highly recommend new energy sectors such as power equipment, upstream of the cycle, and food and beverage and automobiles.</p><p>Banks: What are your thoughts on China Merchants Bank's first-</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>The company released its Q1 2021 results: revenue of 84.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.64%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 32.015 billion, up 15.18% year-on-year, and the annualized weighted average ROE was 19.54%, up 0.78 percentage points year-on-year. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, the company's assets reached 8.66 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.02%.</p><p><b>Net profit growth rebounded significantly</b></p><p>Revenue growth has rebounded. Revenue in 1Q21 increased by 10.64% year-on-year, 2.94 percentage points higher than 7.7% at the end of 2020. Profit growth rebounded significantly. In Q1 2021, net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.18% year-on-year, a significant increase of 10.36 percentage points compared to the end of 2020, mainly due to scale growth, fee income and provision feedback. Profit before provisions increased by 9.25% year-on-year, an increase of 3.48 percentage points compared to the end of 2020.</p><p><b>Excellent asset structure and significant improvement in net interest margin compared to the previous period.</b></p><p>The expansion of loan scale is accelerating. Deposits grew by 12.84% in Q1 2021, supporting rapid asset expansion. At the end of March, assets reached 8.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%. In 1Q21, asset-side loans accounted for 61.3% of total assets, maintaining a relatively high level; Deposits on the liability side accounted for 73.7% of total liabilities, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, reducing reliance on interbank certificates of deposit.</p><p>Net interest margin increased significantly month-on-month. The net interest margin in 1Q21 was 2.52%, an increase of 11 basis points compared to 20Q4. The company benefited from the decrease in deposit costs driven by the increase in the proportion of demand deposits, as well as the increase in yields on interest-earning assets resulting from the increase in the proportion of high-yield assets. However, due to the cumulative effect of multiple LPR reductions in 2020, net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points year-on-year in 1Q21. Although monetary policy will return to neutral in 2021, considering the central bank's efforts to regulate internet deposits and ease competitive pressure on deposits, the cost of liabilities may remain stable, and the net interest margin is expected to remain stable year-on-year in 2021.</p><p><b>Excellent asset quality and low capital pressure</b></p><p>Asset quality is gradually recovering from the impact of the pandemic. The group's non-performing loan ratio in 1Q21 was 1.02%, a decrease of 5 basis points compared to the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio rose 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 438.88%, which is at a high level. China Merchants Bank's parent company's non-performing loan ratio, pending loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio in Q1 2021 were 1.04%, 0.73%, and 1.11%, respectively, a decrease of 5, 6, and 5 basis points compared to the end of 2020.</p><p>The company's AUM is growing steadily. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, retail AUM reached RMB 9.59 trillion, covering 161 million retail customers, representing quarter-on-quarter increases of 7.3% and 1.9%, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVTB\">Private bank</a>106,887 customers, representing an increase of 6.91% over the end of last year; The total assets of private banking clients under management reached RMB 2.98 trillion, an increase of 7.55% compared to the end of last year; The average total assets per household were 27.92 million yuan, an increase of 164,700 yuan compared to the end of last year.</p><p>ABC: AIA's core advantages are being strengthened</p><p><b>I. AIA Life creates a differentiated content platform through \"customized products + high-quality healthcare services + professional agents\".</b></p><p>The number of critical illness insurance policies in my country has exceeded 300 million, and the domestic critical illness insurance market has completed a leap from \"0 to 1\". On the demand side, the era of consumers awakening their insurance awareness and making independent purchases has arrived, while on the supply side, the homogenization of the products themselves and their promotion models still exists. Critical illness insurance has transitioned to an era of \"from 1 to more\". We believe that the three key points for success are professional consulting services, customized products, and differentiated services.</p><p>Based on this, AIA Life launched the modular customized critical illness series \"You Ruyi\", which achieves flexible customization of exclusive protection plans for different customer groups through a combination of \"core protection + personalized configuration\", and launched the critical illness product \"Chuanshi Ruyi\" for high-end customers. In addition to the core coverage for critical illnesses, customers are free to choose whether to add other liabilities and compensation amounts, including:</p><p>① For mild and moderate cases, compensation rates of 10%, 20%, 30%, 20%, 40%, and 60% can be selected, respectively, with a maximum of 5 compensation payments. ② Multiple compensation payments are made for severe and malignant tumors, and the compensation amount can be set independently; ③ Other supplementary insurance (medical insurance, life insurance, accident insurance, etc.). It also comes with the Health Friendship Insurance Amount Increasing Plan (which can increase the critical illness insurance amount by up to 50%) and the more relaxed critical illness project management. In addition, AIA has launched a critical illness product for high-end customers, focusing on the risk of income loss that high-net-worth individuals are most concerned about. It only covers critical illness liability and has a coverage amount of up to 2 million yuan without medical examination, making high-amount insurance more convenient. We expect this product to become a new growth.</p><p>At the same time, we will enrich the value-added services supporting our products to promote sales through services. AIA's Healthy Travel + Yu Congrong has been upgraded in conjunction with the new \"You Ruyi\" series of products. \"Healthy Travel\" has added the \"Daily Upward\" sum increase plan, which can increase the additional insurance benefit by up to 50% when achieving exercise goals. The \"Good Luck Makes You Calm\" critical illness project management service provides a full range of critical illness diagnosis and treatment services, including health consultation, expert outpatient clinics, expert hospitalization, expert surgery, and postoperative guidance. Furthermore, a new \"Calm Nutrition\" service has been added, providing customized nutritional guidance for insured individuals with malignant tumors; The \"Congrong Huizhen\" service assists newly insured children diagnosed with malignant tumors in providing comprehensive disease solutions.</p><p>For high-net-worth critical illness insurance customers, AIA has launched the \"Legacy of Calm\" service, which has upgraded its critical illness project management service and extended the service cycle from the original 180 days to one calendar year. After a customer is diagnosed with a serious illness, the \"Passing Down the Legend and Becoming More Calm\" service will arrange three expert clinics and multidisciplinary consultations at home and abroad. The Yu Congrong service is provided by AIA Life's self-built professional medical team, providing customers with higher response speed and service quality when seeking services. In addition, we believe that promoting services through phased initiatives (such as extending services to family members of critical illness insurance customers) will increase the driving force of services for product sales.</p><p>\"Youruyi\" is a new product series launched by AIA Life Insurance based on customers' multi-level protection needs, the professionalism of its sales team, and the need to expand into non-first-tier markets. We reiterate the importance of this series of products. We believe that 1) the \"Youruyi\" product series has broken away from the homogeneous competition of insurance products, making it difficult to compare prices, and focusing more on customer needs and on-demand combination allocation. 2) The core guarantee of relatively low prices solves the problem of the original products being \"comprehensive but expensive\", which helps to expand the customer base, including young customers born in the 1980s and middle-class families in non-first-tier cities. 3) Product strategies are difficult to replicate. The combination of numerous products requires the professional skills of agents, especially their ability to understand customer needs and their in-depth understanding of the products. Agents of other companies find it difficult to master such product strategies.</p><p><b>II. AIA Sichuan Branch officially opened on April 22, embarking on its expansion into the mainland market.</b></p><p>In November 2020, AIA Life began preparing to establish its Sichuan branch, and it has taken six months for the Sichuan branch to officially open. Chengdu, located in the center of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, has become an important focus for AIA Life in inland areas, and it will gradually expand from Chengdu to the next tier of cities in the future. We believe that AIA Life's next expansion area will select areas with strong economic vitality and abundant talent supply.</p><p>According to Beijing Business Today, after its application for a Sichuan branch was approved, AIA also submitted an application for another provincial branch. Referring to the progress of opening the Sichuan branch, we expect AIA Life to expand at a rate of two branches per year, while also expanding into the next-tier city in the existing branch area. The establishment of new branches may form a driving force for NBV growth in the next 3-5 years.</p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>Risk warnings: Deteriorating economic environment, poor monetary policy transmission, unexpected policy adjustments, and unexpected overseas epidemics.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463285.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463285.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2131999306","content_text":"本文来自公众号“固收彬法”，作者天风总量团队宏观：是否高估了印度疫情的影响?目前印度疫情出现了急剧恶化。在新增病例出现增长的3月，印度的制造业PMI已经有所回落;随着疫情的愈演愈烈，印度制造业可能会相对承压。市场担心的问题是，作为全球产业链的一环，印度制造业的运转不畅可能会加剧全球范围内的供需错配，给全球经济带来实际的负面冲击。但我们的观点是，市场可能高估了印度疫情失控对全球经济的影响。首先要明确的一点是，印度政府没有足够动力再度封锁全国。2020年3月底印度发布了全国范围封锁令，4月经济几近停摆。在经济停滞和失业激增的压力之下，4月下旬印度政府开始逐渐放开了部分行业的生产限制。8月印度疫情出现第一波爆发，但当时印度政府没有重新下达封锁令，反而进一步放松了封锁限制。2021年印度的经济问题并未得到缓解，印度政府仍然面临经济增长和疫情防控的两难选择，没有足够动力再度封锁全国。因此，印度后续封锁措施的强度不太可能上升到2020年4月的水平，更可能接近2020年6-8月局部封锁的水平。当时印度的工业生产和出口情况可以作为推导后续影响的参考变量。工业生产方面，2020年6-8月印度工业生产指数同比下滑11.4%，其中生产受到较大影响的行业有木材、服装、饮料、纺织品、印刷复制、家具等劳动密集型行业，也有运输设备、电气设备、机械设备等附加值较高的行业;生产较为正常的行业是医药和化工产品，表明印度政府对这类行业支持力度较大。出口贸易方面，印度出口占比较大的行业可以分为纺织服装、农牧产品、矿产品、化工品(包含原料药)四大类。2020年6-8月这些行业的出口表现较为分化。劳动密集型的工业品、农副产品受影响较大，虫胶树胶、编结用植物材料、针织钩编服装等行业出口占比下滑明显;初级农产品、矿产品和化工原料药受影响小，钢铁、棉花、谷物、有机化学品等行业出口占比出现明显上升。综合2020年6-8月印度生产和出口两方面的数据，我们认为印度疫情并不会造成严重的供求错配，不会给全球经济带来显著的负面冲击。策略：持股过节还是持币过节?极致的结构性之后，当前中小市值性价比的确有所提升：1)市值层面，大小盘估值比处于历史高位。2)交易层面，以头部成交量占比衡量的交易拥挤度处于05年以来最高位。3)经历金融去杠杆、贸易战、新冠等冲击后，盈利修复阶段中小市值具备弹性。4)金融监管+注册制消化小市值个股壳溢价，当前已回到13年炒作之前水平。5)主导增量资金持股集中度有所下滑，市值下沉进一步被市场接受。但中小性价比不意味着风格的彻底逆转：1)稳定的盈利能力、抵御宏观和产业周期波动的能力仍然是大企业的护城河;中小市值出牛股的概率仍然是偏低的。2)机构资金内部集中度提升，“大基金”数量增加，也会推动持股的市值中枢趋势性提升。2019年以来“逆袭”中小个股经验总结：过去两年牛市中超40%个股涨幅为负，市场结构性特征明显，大盘股相对于小盘股取得明显超额收益，但也有一部分中小市值脱颖而出。经验一：买中小需要自上而下视角，逆袭个股行业集中度很高。涨幅top99个股中，(电子+化工+医药+电气设备+机械+食品)六大行业占比超过70%。相比于龙头，中小企业受行业体量、所处盈利周期的影响更加明显。经验二：虽然存在其他驱动力，但仍然大体与行业盈利正相关。行业层面盈利情况的改善与该行业中小市值表现有明显的正相关关系。在此之外，过去两年食品、电子、军工比较明显地享受了盈利之外的估值溢价;传媒和通信的中小市值表现则未能反映行业景气的改善。经验三：买中小，最好不选择集中度提升过快的行业。行业集中度变化不大甚至下滑，则要么是行业处在成长期，市场在扩容(主要是成长类);要么是行业虽然处于成熟期，但整体的供需格局改善，对上下游议价能力提高(主要是周期类)。经验四：个股层面，整体不贵的情况下，中短期估值更加无关紧要。事实上多数涨幅较大的公司在18年底的估值绝对水平和估值分位高于所在行业。经验五：估值分化是结果不是原因，中小市值内部同样有头部溢价。事后回溯来看，过去两年涨幅靠前的中小市值个股，在18年末并没有估值上的优势;反而到了这一波牛市高点，估值水平显著拉开。依据个股景气改善程度，实际上中小市值内部同样出现了“头部溢价”和极致的结构性，即赋予绩优个股相当高的估值溢价。经验六：股权激励和回购或能提高胜率。涨幅最大的20家中小市值中有16家在过去两年公告过股权激励或进行回购，其中13家回购股份用于股权激励注销，比重远高于全A水平。固收：如何看待5月资金面与债市方向?2020年四季度中国经济增速站上潜在增速，这是总体政策最重要的前提。今年一季度经济数据虽然不强，但总体也不弱，当前和未来一段时间经济可能再度回到潜在增速以下的概率不大。所以总体政策空间不存在进一步放松的可能，这也意味着利率下限存在约束。4月央行在新闻发布会中也继续强调“坚持跨周期设计理念”、“稳字当头，保持定力，珍惜正常的货币政策空间”、“保持好宏观政策的全球领先态势”，所以我们判断总体政策取向仍然是稳健中性，对应货币政策行为从顶层设计出发仍然存在收的可能，即使维持，最多也就是紧平衡。2019年以来，央行珍惜正常的货币政策和货币政策，对应在具体行为上，就是央行连续流动性净投放一般不会超过3个月，2019年的中小银行事件、疫情以及2020年永煤事件时也是如此。除去央行投放，我们预估5月银行体系资金缺口大概较去年同期有所提升，也明显强于一般季节性，因而静态考虑资金面估计较4月份有所收紧。结合4月央行操作来看，在5月面临税期高峰以及政府债券供给压力时，资金利率波动仍然可能会有所加大。我们还是强调今年宏观角度的左侧或者拐点可能并不显著，央行行为导向是收而不是放，这一前提对于把握市场节奏而言，无疑构成了重大障碍，并不清晰的拐点，对应着复杂的市场环境，还是建议按照票息的安全边际进行市场操作，不急不躁。金融工程：震荡上沿，风险事件窗口期择时体系信号显示，均线距离由上期的-1.76%小幅变化至-1.96%，市场继续处于震荡。短期最为关注的变量是市场短期情绪的变化，进入宏观数据发布的真空期，市场的风险打分较低，反弹有望延续;价量方面，市场周成交量有所降低，市场风险偏好有短暂抬升可能;行业模型主要结论，中期角度继续推荐周期上游;长期景气度模型依然指向电力设备新能源，短期角度，消费者服务与商贸板块值得关注。从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的wind 全A 长期均线(120 日)和短期均线(20 日)的距离保持持平，20 日线收于5286 点，120 日线收于5360，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下，两线距离由上期的-1.96%小幅变化至-1.38%，均线距离低于3%的阈值，市场继续处于震荡。在我们的择时体系下，当市场进入震荡格局，我们体系短期最为关注的变量是市场短期情绪的变化。展望下周，市场将面临多重宏观事件考验，下周四美联储议息会议，周五将发布PMI 数据，面临不确定性市场风险偏好或将有所抑制;价量方面，目前进入震荡上沿位置，市场周成交量创下近一月新高，在震荡走势的前提下，市场风险偏好继续大幅抬升概率较低;时间维度，下周过后将面临五一小长假，外围市场的不确定性也将对A股市场的风险偏好形成压制。综合打分显示，下周市场谨慎为宜。风格与行业模型主要结论，根据天风量化 two -beta 风格选择模型，当前利率处于我们定义的下行阶段，经济进入我们定义的上行阶段，中期角度继续推荐周期中上游;展望2021 年行业景气度的情况，利润增速相对行业自身过去10 年的排序来看，靠前的行业为电力设备以及半导体，均为过去十年中较优的年份;短期角度，食品饮料与汽车有资金流入迹象;综合时间窗口，重点推荐电力设备新能源、周期上游以及食品饮料与汽车。银行：怎么看招行一季报?招商银行披露2021年一季度业绩：营收847.51亿元，同比 +10.64%;归母净利润320.15亿元，同比 +15.18%，年化加权平均ROE为19.54%，同比上升0.78个百分点。截至2021年一季度末，资产规模8.66万亿元，不良贷款率1.02%。净利润增速大幅回升营收增速回升。1Q21营收同比增长10.64%，较2020年末的7.7%提高2.94pct。盈利增速大幅回升。1Q21归母净利润同比增长15.18%，利润增速较2020年末大幅上升10.36pct，主要是规模增长、中收及拨备反哺贡献。拨备前利润同比增长9.25%，增速较2020年末上升3.48pct。资产结构优秀，净息差环比改善大贷款规模扩张提速。1Q21存款增速为12.84%，支撑资产较快扩张，3月末资产规模达8.66万亿元，同比增速达11.6%。1Q21资产端贷款占总资产比例达61.3%，保持较高水平;负债端存款占总负债比例达73.7%，同比上升1.2个百分点，对同业存单依赖降低。净息差环比升幅大。1Q21净息差为 2.52%，较20Q4提高11BP。受益于活期存款占比提升推动的存款成本率下降，以及高收益资产占比提升带来的生息资产收益率提升。但受2020年LPR多次下调的累计效应影响，1Q21净息差同比下降4BP。21年货币政策虽回归中性，但考虑到央行整理互联网存款，减缓存款竞争压力，负债成本或平稳，预计21年净息差水平同比维持平稳。资产质量保持优异，资本压力小资产质量逐步摆脱疫情影响。集团1Q21不良率为 1.02%，环比降5bp。拨备覆盖率环比上升1.2pct到438.88%，处于高位。招行母公司1Q21贷款不良率/关注率/逾期率为1.04%/0.73%/1.11%，较2020年末分别下降5/6/5BP。公司的 AUM 规模稳步增长。2021年一季度末零售 AUM 规模高达 9.59万亿元，覆盖零售客户1.61 亿户，环比分别增长7.3%和1.9%。私人银行客户106,887户，较上年末增长6.91%;管理的私人银行客户总资产2.98万亿元，较上年末增长7.55%;户均总资产2792万元，较上年末增加16.47万元。非银：友邦核心优势在加固一、友邦人寿通过“定制化的产品+优质的健康医疗服务+专业代理人”，打造差异化的内容平台我国重疾险保单数量已超3亿张，国内重疾险市场已经完成了“从0到1”的跨越。在需求端消费者保险意识觉醒和自主购买的时代来临，而在供给端，产品本身及推广模式的同质化依然存在，重疾险已过渡到“从1到多”的时代，我们认为，制胜三个关键点是专业化的咨询服务、定制化产品、差异化服务。基于此，友邦人寿推出模块定制化重疾系列“友如意”，通过“核心保障+个性化配置”组合形式，实现不同客群的专属保障方案的灵活定制，并推出针对高端客户的重疾产品“传世如意”。在重症的核心保障之外，客户可自由选择是否附加其他责任以及赔付额度，包括：①轻症、中症分别可选10%/20%/30%、20%/40%/60%的赔付比例，赔付次数可分别达到5次;②重症及恶性肿瘤多次赔付，赔付额度可自行设置;③其他的附加险(医疗险、定寿、意外险等)。同时搭配了健康友行保额递增计划(重疾保额最高可增加50% )和愈从容重疾专案管理。此外，友邦还推出针对高端客户的重疾产品，聚焦高净值人士最为担忧的收入损失风险，仅含重疾责任，免体检保额高达200万，让高额投保更加便捷，我们预计这一产品将成为新增量。同时丰富产品配套的增值服务，以服务促销售。友邦的健康友行+愈从容配合“友如意”系列新产品而升级。“健康友行”新增“天天向上”保额递增计划，达成运动目标，最高可增加50% 额外保障保险金。“如意愈从容”重疾专案管理服务，提供健康咨询、专家门诊、专家住院、专家手术、术后指导等重疾全诊疗过程服务。并且新增：“从容营养”服务，为恶性肿瘤的被保险人提供定制化营养指导;“从容慧诊”服务，为确诊恶性肿瘤的儿童新单被保险人协助提供疾病综合解决方案。针对高净值重疾险客户，友邦推出“传世愈从容”服务，重疾专案管理服务升级，将服务周期由原先的180天延长至1个自然年度。客户在确诊重症后，“传世愈从容”服务将为客户安排3次专家门诊、国内外多学科咨询服务。愈从容服务由友邦人寿自建的专业医疗团队提供，客户寻求服务的响应速度和服务质量更高。另外，我们判断如通过阶段性的方案推动(比如，将服务扩展至重疾险客户的家人)将提高服务对于产品销售的拉动力。“友如意”是友邦人寿基于客户多层次的保障需求、销售队伍的专业化程度、拓展非一线市场的需求推出的新产品系列，我们再次重申这一系列产品的重要意义。我们认为，1)“友如意”产品系列跳出了保险产品同质化竞争，产品难以比价，更加聚焦客户需求和按需组合配置。2)通过相对较低价格的核心保障解决原来产品“全而贵”的问题，有助于扩大客户覆盖群体，包括85后年轻客户、非一线城市的中产家庭等。3)产品策略难以被复制，繁多的产品的组合需要依托代理人的专业能力，特别是对客户需求的洞悉能力及对产品的深入理解，其他公司代理人整体较难驾驭这样的产品策略。二、友邦四川分公司于4月22日正式开业，开启内地市场的拓展之路2020年11月，友邦人寿开始筹建四川分公司，到目前四川分公司的正式开业，用时半年。位于成渝经济圈中心的成都成为友邦人寿在内陆地区的重要发力点，后续会逐渐地从成都拓宽到下一级的城市。我们判断友邦人寿下一步的扩展区域将选取经济活力较好、人才供给丰富的地方。据北京商报报道，在申请四川分公司获批之后，友邦还递交了另外一个省级分公司的申请。参照四川分公司的开设进程，我们预计友邦人寿后续将以每年开设2家分公司的速度扩张，同时在已有分公司区域向下一级城市扩张，新设分支机构或将在未来3年-5年形成NBV增长的拉动力。风险提示风险提示：经济环境恶化、货币政策传导不畅、政策调整超预期、海外疫情超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109166375,"gmtCreate":1619674420897,"gmtModify":1704727808621,"author":{"id":"3452208114302624","authorId":"3452208114302624","name":"又龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184ee60ce0da03042b7cc51f0e88aaeb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3452208114302624","idStr":"3452208114302624"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109166375","repostId":"1177176399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177176399","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619661900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177176399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 10:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Carrying Zhencheng Investment Li Jianwei Initiated SPAC Landing on Nasdaq Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177176399","media":"美通社","summary":"老虎与真成投资李剑威联合发起的SPAC（TradeUP Global Corporation）最终定价10美元，今晚将在纳斯达克挂牌上市！","content":"<p><div>NEW YORK, April 29, 2021, TradeUP Global Corporation Acquisition Company (NASDAQ: TUGCU) (\"TradeUP Global\" or the \"Company\"), a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (or \"SPAC\") incorporated in the Cayman Islands, today announced the pricing of its initial public offering (\"IPO\") of shares. The company's IPO is based on each issued unit...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.prnasia.com/story/316905-1.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mts","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Carrying Zhencheng Investment Li Jianwei Initiated SPAC Landing on Nasdaq Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Carrying Zhencheng Investment Li Jianwei Initiated SPAC Landing on Nasdaq Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美通社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 10:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>NEW YORK, April 29, 2021, TradeUP Global Corporation Acquisition Company (NASDAQ: TUGCU) (\"TradeUP Global\" or the \"Company\"), a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (or \"SPAC\") incorporated in the Cayman Islands, today announced the pricing of its initial public offering (\"IPO\") of shares. The company's IPO is based on each issued unit...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.prnasia.com/story/316905-1.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.prnasia.com/story/316905-1.shtml\">美通社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe85c79e7ab0e902548197ca13ca8164","relate_stocks":{"TUGCU":"TradeUP Global Corp.","TIGR":"老虎证券"},"source_url":"https://www.prnasia.com/story/316905-1.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177176399","content_text":"纽约2021年4月29日， TradeUP Global Corporation 收购公司（NASDAQ交易代码：TUGCU）（简称“TradeUP Global”或“公司”）, 一家在开曼群岛注册的特殊目的并购公司（Special Purpose Acquisition Company, or “SPAC”），今天宣布其股票首次公开募股发行（“IPO”）的定价。公司此次IPO以每发行单位10.00美元的公开发行价共发行4,000,000发行单位 ，在不扣除承销商折扣，佣金和发行费用的情况下一共筹集到约四千万美元。发行单位将以 “TUGCU” 为交易代码于美国东部时间2021年4月29日起在纳斯达克资本市场开始公开交易。每个单位包括一股A类普通股（Class A ordinary shares），半个可赎回认股权证。每整个认股权证（warrant）可购买一股A类普通股。 一旦开始独立交易，公司的A类普通股（Class A ordinary shares），和期权（warrants）将分别以代码“TUGC”和“TUGCW”在纳斯达克交易。根据公司授予承销商的超额配售权，承销商可在45天内再追加购买最多600,000个发行单位。在顺利完成惯例交割的前提下，公司预计此次公开募股在5月3日完成。US Tiger Securities, Inc.担任此次发行的首席账簿管理人。R.F. Lafferty&Co., Inc. 和Ingalls & Snyder, LLC担任此次发行的联席账簿管理人。R.F. Lafferty&Co., Inc. 同时也担任此次发行的Qualified Independent Underwriter。关于TradeUP Global CorporationTradeUP Global Corporation是一家在开曼群岛注册的特殊目的并购公司(Special Purpose Acquisition Company, or “SPAC”), 旨在通过兼并，股权交换，资产并购，股权收购，资本重组，重组或其他类似的业务组合方式来完成和一到多家实体（“并购对象”）的合并。潜在的并购对象将不受行业和区域的限制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9,"TUGCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377625714,"gmtCreate":1619525603838,"gmtModify":1704725386542,"author":{"id":"3452208114302624","authorId":"3452208114302624","name":"又龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184ee60ce0da03042b7cc51f0e88aaeb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3452208114302624","idStr":"3452208114302624"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tiger kkk","listText":"tiger kkk","text":"tiger 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