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- 喵个猫喵个猫
  ·2024-08-05
  $协鑫新能源(00451)$
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- 喵个猫喵个猫
  ·2022-11-29
  ETF
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- 喵个猫喵个猫
  ·2021-09-03
  Tesla
  With the upward trend resuming, can Tesla's stock price break through the $1,000 mark?
  惯于看营收估值倍数的投资者转用EBIT估值倍数来评估股价或更可取。
  With the upward trend resuming, can Tesla's stock price break through the $1,000 mark?
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00451\">$协鑫新能源(00451)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00451\">$协鑫新能源(00451)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$协鑫新能源(00451)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6aedc54653ed00c925ff3fa5bf0f40d","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335196775293008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620855278,"gmtCreate":1669686180995,"gmtModify":1676538223085,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ETF","listText":"ETF","text":"ETF","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620855278","repostId":"620936515","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815693859,"gmtCreate":1630672875671,"gmtModify":1676530372260,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815693859","repostId":"1179887160","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179887160","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630663068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179887160?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the upward trend resuming, can Tesla's stock price break through the $1,000 mark?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179887160","media":"美港电讯","summary":"惯于看营收估值倍数的投资者转用EBIT估值倍数来评估股价或更可取。","content":"<p><b>sum up</b></p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock price performed poorly at the beginning of the year before recovering strongly, outperforming the company over the past three months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>。</li><li>Tesla's EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is expected to grow strongly in the future, and investors should use EBIT valuation multiples to assess the stock price.</li><li>Analysts have listed the factors that will determine whether Tesla's stock price can break through the $1,000 mark.</li></ul><b>Investment Perspective</b></p><p>Tesla enjoys among the highest levels of attention on Wall Street, with 33 analysts expressing their views on Tesla's stock price. It can be said that this stock is highly controversial: the target prices of elite Wall Street analysts vary greatly, ranging from $540 to $860, with 14 analysts giving it a strong bullish/bullish rating, 12 giving it a neutral rating, and 7 giving it a strong bearish/bearish rating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b92a468da788ee5ba6817b2264a8e\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another thing to mention is that Cathie Wood, a well-known Tesla bull and CEO of Ark Investment, recently reiterated her optimism about Tesla and even emphasized that she does not see any Tesla stock price bubble forming. On the other hand, Wall Street's divided opinions on Tesla's stock price (as can be seen from the neutral rating in the chart above) reflect the market's uncertainty. Wood Sister believes that this will help Tesla overcome the \"wall of worry\" (referring to the cyclical trend in which the financial market overcomes a series of negative factors and continues to rise), and the stock price will climb to $3,000 by 2025.</p><p>Will Tesla's stock price be able to break through the $1,000 mark? This article lists several key points.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price performance recently</b></p><p>The chart below compares the stock price performance of Tesla, Ford, and General Motors over the three months (as of September 2, 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174e2f5700526705625d8c913c3ebb91\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below compares the stock price performance of Tesla, VLUE, and VUG over three months (as of September 2, 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909b5d89d048b104d44faba3d75b93cd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is no doubt that Tesla has significantly underperformed the market this year, with a return of only 4.83% as of September 2, 2021. However, performance improved over the past three months, reaching a return of 18.6%, significantly outperforming the returns of Ford Motor Company (FN) -11% and General Motors (GM.N) -17.1%. The shift from growth stocks to value stocks has subsided dramatically, and growth stocks have once again become a key investment focus for low-price buyers. Comparing the Vanguard Growth Stock Index ETF (VUG) with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>This is evident from the performance of the Anshuo MSCI US Dollar Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p>As growth stocks and Tesla's stock prices recover, it's time for investors to consider whether Tesla can break through the all-time high of $900 reached after the stock split and break into the $1,000 mark.</p><p><b>Focus on Tesla's EBIT growth</b></p><p>The following chart shows Tesla's quarterly revenue from the sale of carbon emission credits:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54dabfbe36afc53a1b13a8610b0ef34b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second-quarter data contradicts the consistent claims of Tesla's detractors: Tesla makes a profit by selling \"carbon\". Recent quarterly reports show that Tesla's quarterly revenue increased by 308.3% year-on-year to $1.36 billion, a strong performance. Furthermore, although Tesla has generated at least $354 million in revenue from selling carbon emission credits over the past five quarters, its underlying operating performance is making significant progress as the company continues to expand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0555474643f33f10d16dd192a3ae4d\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the company expanded its operations, Tesla's EBIT situation steadily improved, recording $3.25 billion in Q2, with EBIT growing by 7.8% cumulatively in the first 12 months.</p><p>Therefore, investors need to consider how Tesla's EBIT will grow in the future in order to understand how to correctly evaluate Tesla and see if it can break through the $1,000 mark.</p><p><b>What will Tesla's EBIT growth rate be like in the future?</b></p><p>The chart below shows Wall Street's average consensus expectation for Tesla's revenue:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2410d4ebc4c8fec1679d1e692220d4\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows Wall Street's forecast for Tesla's compound annual growth rate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccdb237c8db92f64db2c6b4056e8ee2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the chart, even Wall Street analysts who hold a neutral rating for Tesla expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to improve. Wall Street predicts that Tesla will record revenue of $120.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (Ark Investment's forecast is $700 billion, compared to Wall Street's forecast of 17.2%), which means a staggering compound annual growth rate of 24.4%.</p><p>In comparison, General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen projected compound annual growth rates of 5.15%, 3.14%, and 4.33% in revenue through fiscal year 2025, respectively. Wall Street naturally expects Tesla to continue strengthening its leadership in the electric vehicle market as traditional automakers prepare to make a major shift to the electric vehicle market in the coming years.</p><p><b>While Tesla's revenue compound annual growth rate is expected to be quite impressive, more importantly, Tesla's EBIT and EBITDA growth rates are expected to exceed its revenue growth rate, reaching 43.8% and 26.7% respectively.</b></p><p>Given Tesla's promising future EBIT or EBITDA growth, Seekingalpha analysts suggest that for investors accustomed to looking at revenue valuation multiples (corporate value/revenue ratio or price-to-sales ratio), it may be more advisable to switch to EBITDA or EBIT valuation multiples to evaluate Tesla's stock price.</p><p>Seekingalpha analysts will explain how to view these two indicators later and provide a valuation model.</p><p><b>Understanding Tesla's EBIT Valuation Multiple</b></p><p>Only EBIT valuation multiples will be discussed here. Considering that Tesla, as a car manufacturer, has a relatively high profit margin on capital expenditures, discussing the EBIT valuation multiple is of great significance.</p><p>The chart below shows a mixed comparison of the valuation multiples of Tesla and automotive and software companies:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a99239187db8b139242af901f5ce78\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following chart compares the valuation multiples of Tesla and software companies:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265c0afe9f76ecdbcb516f5d86f0ed1\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let me first briefly introduce the logic of these two groups. The first group lists some car manufacturers. Comparison of pure electric vehicle manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>With a forward valuation multiple of 64.7 times, Tesla's enterprise value/fiscal year 2024 EBIT valuation multiple is reasonable, and Tesla's EBIT growth is expected to be faster, with a higher profit margin than its peers in the group.</p><p>In the second group, Tesla's EBIT valuation multiplier for calendar year 2024 also appears reasonable compared to leading emerging software companies. With its impressive EBIT growth rate, Tesla, as a software company, is on par with its peers.<b>Seekingalpha analysts believe that Tesla could compete with Palantir or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It ranks alongside leading emerging software companies, despite Tesla's EBIT margin being lower than its peers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e4d5f21a7e8d14313126bb32dc7d10\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When calculating Tesla's fair value,<b>Analyst</b>Selecting a median EBIT valuation multiple of 60 results in a fair value of approximately $713. Based on Thursday's closing price of $739, Tesla has a potential drop of 3.6%.</p><p>Analysts believe that the huge EBIT growth is key to supporting Tesla's valuation premium, and that Tesla's valuation premium remains reasonable compared to its pure electric vehicle or software peers.</p><p>So, if Tesla's current valuation is reasonable based on expectations up to fiscal year 2024, what factors will drive Tesla's stock price to break through the $1,000 mark in the next few years?</p><p><b>Strong market momentum and growth</b></p><p>The image below shows Seekingalpha's quantitative rating of Tesla:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/299e00f39ef79cfb53d1523d91587bff\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the chart, apart from valuation factors, Tesla performed exceptionally well in other ratings, especially its growth and profitability, which received the highest A+ rating. On the other hand, Tesla's value rating was only F, mainly because the quantitative system compares Tesla with automakers, and the relatively low valuations of traditional automakers affected Tesla's rating.</p><p>The chart below shows Seekingalpha's stock price momentum rating for Tesla:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03806f1116aa76d645162084e6f64066\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that Tesla's three-month stock price performance rating is A, indicating a significant increase in gains, as bulls expect the stock price to rise to its all-time high in January this year. Unfortunately, some investors did not take into account the current momentum and adopted a bearish stance at the turning point when the decline turned to a rise.</p><p>While analysts believe valuation is a significant factor driving stock prices (and valuation is highly subjective for Tesla, as evidenced by Wall Street's loose target price range), investor optimism about growth prospects cannot be ignored, as it drives growth momentum. In the case of Tesla, the bulls not only saw huge opportunities in the electric vehicle market, but also considered Tesla's expansion into autonomous driving,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The prospects for sectors such as taxis, insurance, and energy have greatly fueled bullish optimism, leading to a further rise in stock prices.</p><p><b>However, as bearish investors have pointed out, a key risk to note is that Tesla appears to be far from achieving its expected goals. If the target is not achieved, the valuation premium will be difficult to sustain.</b></p><p>On the other hand, as mentioned above, Tesla's current valuation seems to be in line with that of other pure electric vehicle peers, and bulls can certainly consider the valuation reasonable. For investors, what is more challenging is considering how Tesla will break through the $1,000 mark. Analysts believe that neither bulls nor bears can provide convincing fundamental evidence after understanding Tesla's market opportunities.</p><p><b>Tesla Stock Price Dynamics and Trend Analysis</b></p><p>The chart below shows Tesla's weekly candlestick chart:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f88c4fd796d7d26b1f0c21cf529ae\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As previously emphasized, despite the constant negative news and bearish calls in the market, Tesla's stock returns have been good since the market bottomed out during the pandemic. This isn't about the huge returns that 2020 offered investors, but rather the long-term strong momentum clearly reflected in Tesla's stock price performance.</p><p>The double bottom in February 2021 (the first low) and May 2021 (the second low) caused significant negative sentiment in the stock market at the time.</p><p>Bear traps are used by powerful and shrewd market participants to lure and trap bearish investors at the right time, profit from negative sentiment, and reverse stock prices when bearish sentiment persists, thereby going long. Readers can review the coverage of Tesla in February and May to understand the bearish market sentiment at the time. The double bottom trend in May was a bullish signal for Tesla. Unfortunately, many investors with poor technical analysis often fail to spot important market signals in time.</p><p><b>So, can Tesla break through the $1,000 mark?</b></p><p>Judging from the current stock price, the safety factor is very good. Given the consistent profits, analysts say they can continue to hold Tesla, given that Ark Investment has set a target price of $3,000 for Tesla's fiscal year 2025. Analysts believe that no one can predict whether Tesla will break through the $1,000 or even $2,000 mark, nor can they predict when that will happen.</p><p><b>Nevertheless, after analyzing Tesla's current valuation, upward momentum, price performance, and long-term upward trend, analysts believe these key points may lead Tesla toward the $1,000 mark rather than falling back to $500.</b></p><p>Finally, based on current valuation and stock price performance, analysts maintain a neutral rating on Tesla for the time being.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the upward trend resuming, can Tesla's stock price break through the $1,000 mark?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the upward trend resuming, can Tesla's stock price break through the $1,000 mark?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>sum up</b></p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock price performed poorly at the beginning of the year before recovering strongly, outperforming the company over the past three months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>。</li><li>Tesla's EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is expected to grow strongly in the future, and investors should use EBIT valuation multiples to assess the stock price.</li><li>Analysts have listed the factors that will determine whether Tesla's stock price can break through the $1,000 mark.</li></ul><b>Investment Perspective</b></p><p>Tesla enjoys among the highest levels of attention on Wall Street, with 33 analysts expressing their views on Tesla's stock price. It can be said that this stock is highly controversial: the target prices of elite Wall Street analysts vary greatly, ranging from $540 to $860, with 14 analysts giving it a strong bullish/bullish rating, 12 giving it a neutral rating, and 7 giving it a strong bearish/bearish rating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b92a468da788ee5ba6817b2264a8e\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another thing to mention is that Cathie Wood, a well-known Tesla bull and CEO of Ark Investment, recently reiterated her optimism about Tesla and even emphasized that she does not see any Tesla stock price bubble forming. On the other hand, Wall Street's divided opinions on Tesla's stock price (as can be seen from the neutral rating in the chart above) reflect the market's uncertainty. Wood Sister believes that this will help Tesla overcome the \"wall of worry\" (referring to the cyclical trend in which the financial market overcomes a series of negative factors and continues to rise), and the stock price will climb to $3,000 by 2025.</p><p>Will Tesla's stock price be able to break through the $1,000 mark? This article lists several key points.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price performance recently</b></p><p>The chart below compares the stock price performance of Tesla, Ford, and General Motors over the three months (as of September 2, 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174e2f5700526705625d8c913c3ebb91\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below compares the stock price performance of Tesla, VLUE, and VUG over three months (as of September 2, 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909b5d89d048b104d44faba3d75b93cd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is no doubt that Tesla has significantly underperformed the market this year, with a return of only 4.83% as of September 2, 2021. However, performance improved over the past three months, reaching a return of 18.6%, significantly outperforming the returns of Ford Motor Company (FN) -11% and General Motors (GM.N) -17.1%. The shift from growth stocks to value stocks has subsided dramatically, and growth stocks have once again become a key investment focus for low-price buyers. Comparing the Vanguard Growth Stock Index ETF (VUG) with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>This is evident from the performance of the Anshuo MSCI US Dollar Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p>As growth stocks and Tesla's stock prices recover, it's time for investors to consider whether Tesla can break through the all-time high of $900 reached after the stock split and break into the $1,000 mark.</p><p><b>Focus on Tesla's EBIT growth</b></p><p>The following chart shows Tesla's quarterly revenue from the sale of carbon emission credits:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54dabfbe36afc53a1b13a8610b0ef34b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second-quarter data contradicts the consistent claims of Tesla's detractors: Tesla makes a profit by selling \"carbon\". Recent quarterly reports show that Tesla's quarterly revenue increased by 308.3% year-on-year to $1.36 billion, a strong performance. Furthermore, although Tesla has generated at least $354 million in revenue from selling carbon emission credits over the past five quarters, its underlying operating performance is making significant progress as the company continues to expand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0555474643f33f10d16dd192a3ae4d\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the company expanded its operations, Tesla's EBIT situation steadily improved, recording $3.25 billion in Q2, with EBIT growing by 7.8% cumulatively in the first 12 months.</p><p>Therefore, investors need to consider how Tesla's EBIT will grow in the future in order to understand how to correctly evaluate Tesla and see if it can break through the $1,000 mark.</p><p><b>What will Tesla's EBIT growth rate be like in the future?</b></p><p>The chart below shows Wall Street's average consensus expectation for Tesla's revenue:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2410d4ebc4c8fec1679d1e692220d4\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows Wall Street's forecast for Tesla's compound annual growth rate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccdb237c8db92f64db2c6b4056e8ee2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the chart, even Wall Street analysts who hold a neutral rating for Tesla expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to improve. Wall Street predicts that Tesla will record revenue of $120.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (Ark Investment's forecast is $700 billion, compared to Wall Street's forecast of 17.2%), which means a staggering compound annual growth rate of 24.4%.</p><p>In comparison, General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen projected compound annual growth rates of 5.15%, 3.14%, and 4.33% in revenue through fiscal year 2025, respectively. Wall Street naturally expects Tesla to continue strengthening its leadership in the electric vehicle market as traditional automakers prepare to make a major shift to the electric vehicle market in the coming years.</p><p><b>While Tesla's revenue compound annual growth rate is expected to be quite impressive, more importantly, Tesla's EBIT and EBITDA growth rates are expected to exceed its revenue growth rate, reaching 43.8% and 26.7% respectively.</b></p><p>Given Tesla's promising future EBIT or EBITDA growth, Seekingalpha analysts suggest that for investors accustomed to looking at revenue valuation multiples (corporate value/revenue ratio or price-to-sales ratio), it may be more advisable to switch to EBITDA or EBIT valuation multiples to evaluate Tesla's stock price.</p><p>Seekingalpha analysts will explain how to view these two indicators later and provide a valuation model.</p><p><b>Understanding Tesla's EBIT Valuation Multiple</b></p><p>Only EBIT valuation multiples will be discussed here. Considering that Tesla, as a car manufacturer, has a relatively high profit margin on capital expenditures, discussing the EBIT valuation multiple is of great significance.</p><p>The chart below shows a mixed comparison of the valuation multiples of Tesla and automotive and software companies:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a99239187db8b139242af901f5ce78\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following chart compares the valuation multiples of Tesla and software companies:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265c0afe9f76ecdbcb516f5d86f0ed1\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let me first briefly introduce the logic of these two groups. The first group lists some car manufacturers. Comparison of pure electric vehicle manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>With a forward valuation multiple of 64.7 times, Tesla's enterprise value/fiscal year 2024 EBIT valuation multiple is reasonable, and Tesla's EBIT growth is expected to be faster, with a higher profit margin than its peers in the group.</p><p>In the second group, Tesla's EBIT valuation multiplier for calendar year 2024 also appears reasonable compared to leading emerging software companies. With its impressive EBIT growth rate, Tesla, as a software company, is on par with its peers.<b>Seekingalpha analysts believe that Tesla could compete with Palantir or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>It ranks alongside leading emerging software companies, despite Tesla's EBIT margin being lower than its peers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e4d5f21a7e8d14313126bb32dc7d10\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When calculating Tesla's fair value,<b>Analyst</b>Selecting a median EBIT valuation multiple of 60 results in a fair value of approximately $713. Based on Thursday's closing price of $739, Tesla has a potential drop of 3.6%.</p><p>Analysts believe that the huge EBIT growth is key to supporting Tesla's valuation premium, and that Tesla's valuation premium remains reasonable compared to its pure electric vehicle or software peers.</p><p>So, if Tesla's current valuation is reasonable based on expectations up to fiscal year 2024, what factors will drive Tesla's stock price to break through the $1,000 mark in the next few years?</p><p><b>Strong market momentum and growth</b></p><p>The image below shows Seekingalpha's quantitative rating of Tesla:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/299e00f39ef79cfb53d1523d91587bff\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the chart, apart from valuation factors, Tesla performed exceptionally well in other ratings, especially its growth and profitability, which received the highest A+ rating. On the other hand, Tesla's value rating was only F, mainly because the quantitative system compares Tesla with automakers, and the relatively low valuations of traditional automakers affected Tesla's rating.</p><p>The chart below shows Seekingalpha's stock price momentum rating for Tesla:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03806f1116aa76d645162084e6f64066\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that Tesla's three-month stock price performance rating is A, indicating a significant increase in gains, as bulls expect the stock price to rise to its all-time high in January this year. Unfortunately, some investors did not take into account the current momentum and adopted a bearish stance at the turning point when the decline turned to a rise.</p><p>While analysts believe valuation is a significant factor driving stock prices (and valuation is highly subjective for Tesla, as evidenced by Wall Street's loose target price range), investor optimism about growth prospects cannot be ignored, as it drives growth momentum. In the case of Tesla, the bulls not only saw huge opportunities in the electric vehicle market, but also considered Tesla's expansion into autonomous driving,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The prospects for sectors such as taxis, insurance, and energy have greatly fueled bullish optimism, leading to a further rise in stock prices.</p><p><b>However, as bearish investors have pointed out, a key risk to note is that Tesla appears to be far from achieving its expected goals. If the target is not achieved, the valuation premium will be difficult to sustain.</b></p><p>On the other hand, as mentioned above, Tesla's current valuation seems to be in line with that of other pure electric vehicle peers, and bulls can certainly consider the valuation reasonable. For investors, what is more challenging is considering how Tesla will break through the $1,000 mark. Analysts believe that neither bulls nor bears can provide convincing fundamental evidence after understanding Tesla's market opportunities.</p><p><b>Tesla Stock Price Dynamics and Trend Analysis</b></p><p>The chart below shows Tesla's weekly candlestick chart:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f88c4fd796d7d26b1f0c21cf529ae\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As previously emphasized, despite the constant negative news and bearish calls in the market, Tesla's stock returns have been good since the market bottomed out during the pandemic. This isn't about the huge returns that 2020 offered investors, but rather the long-term strong momentum clearly reflected in Tesla's stock price performance.</p><p>The double bottom in February 2021 (the first low) and May 2021 (the second low) caused significant negative sentiment in the stock market at the time.</p><p>Bear traps are used by powerful and shrewd market participants to lure and trap bearish investors at the right time, profit from negative sentiment, and reverse stock prices when bearish sentiment persists, thereby going long. Readers can review the coverage of Tesla in February and May to understand the bearish market sentiment at the time. The double bottom trend in May was a bullish signal for Tesla. Unfortunately, many investors with poor technical analysis often fail to spot important market signals in time.</p><p><b>So, can Tesla break through the $1,000 mark?</b></p><p>Judging from the current stock price, the safety factor is very good. Given the consistent profits, analysts say they can continue to hold Tesla, given that Ark Investment has set a target price of $3,000 for Tesla's fiscal year 2025. Analysts believe that no one can predict whether Tesla will break through the $1,000 or even $2,000 mark, nor can they predict when that will happen.</p><p><b>Nevertheless, after analyzing Tesla's current valuation, upward momentum, price performance, and long-term upward trend, analysts believe these key points may lead Tesla toward the $1,000 mark rather than falling back to $500.</b></p><p>Finally, based on current valuation and stock price performance, analysts maintain a neutral rating on Tesla for the time being.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179887160","content_text":"总结\n\n特斯拉股价年初走势不佳，后强劲复苏，过去三个月表现跑赢通用汽车和福特汽车。\n预计未来特斯拉EBIT（息税前利润）增长强劲，投资者应使用EBIT估值倍数评估股价。\n分析师列出了特斯拉股价能否闯入1000美元大关的因素。\n\n投资观点\n特斯拉在华尔街的关注度数一数二，33位分析师发表了针对特斯拉股价的观点。可以说，这只个股极具争议：华尔街精英分析师的目标价差异悬殊，从540美元到860美元不等，14位分析师予以强烈看涨/看涨评级，12位予以中性评级，7位予以强烈看跌/看跌的评级。\n\n再提一嘴，有名的特斯拉多头，方舟投资CEO及CIO木头姐Cathie Wood，最近重申看好特斯拉，甚至强调没有看到任何特斯拉股价泡沫形成；另一方面，华尔街对特斯拉股价意见不一（从上图的中性评级可以看出）反映了市场的不确定情绪，木头姐认为这有利于特斯拉越过“忧虑之墙”（指金融市场克服一系列负面因素并持续上升的周期性趋势），到2025年股价将攀升至3000美元。\n究竟特斯拉股价能否闯进1000美元大关？本文列出几大要点。\n特斯拉股价近日表现\n下图为特斯拉、福特汽车、通用汽车三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n下图为特斯拉、VLUE、VUG三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n毫无疑问，今年特斯拉明显跑输大盘，截至2021年9月2日的回报率仅为4.83%。然而过去三个月表现好转，回报率达18.6%，大大跑赢福特汽车(F.N)-11%和通用汽车(GM.N)-17.1%的回报率。成长股到价值股的轮换势头已惊人消退，成长股再次成为低价买入者的投资重点。对比过去三个月Vanguard成长股指数ETF(VUG)与iShares安硕MSCI美元价值因素ETF(VLUE)的表现，这一点可见一斑。\n随着成长股和特斯拉股价涨势恢复，投资者是时候思考，特斯拉能否突破拆股后达到的900美元历史高位，冲入1000美元大关。\n关注特斯拉EBIT增长\n下图为特斯拉季度出售碳排放信用额度的营收：\n\n二季度数据打脸特斯拉诋毁者的一贯说辞：特斯拉靠卖“碳”盈利。最近的季报显示，特斯拉季度营收同比增长308.3%至13.6亿美元，业绩亮眼。此外，尽管过去5个季度，特斯拉出售碳排放信用额度的营收最少达3.54亿美元，但随着公司规模不断扩大，特斯拉的基础经营业绩正取得巨大进步。\n\n随着公司运营规模扩大，特斯拉EBIT状况稳步改善，Q2录得32.5亿美元，前12个月EBIT累计增长7.8%。\n因此，投资者需考虑特斯拉EBIT未来将如何增长，从而了解如何正确评估特斯拉，看特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关。\n特斯拉EBIT未来增速如何？\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉营收的平均共识预期：\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉复合年增长率的预测：\n\n从图中可以看出，即使是华尔街对特斯拉持中性评级的分析师，也预计特斯拉经营业绩继续提升。华尔街预测，特斯拉2025财年将录得营收1204亿美元（方舟投资预测为7000亿美元，华尔街预测值为其17.2%），这意味着年复合增长率达到惊人的24.4%。\n与之相比，通用汽车、丰田和大众到2025财年的营收年复合增长率分别为5.15%、3.14%和4.33%。华尔街自然期待，随着传统汽车制造商争相准备在未来几年大举转向电动汽车市场，特斯拉能继续加强在该市场的领导地位。\n虽然预计特斯拉营收年复合增长率相当亮眼，但更重要的是，特斯拉EBIT和EBITDA增速有望超出其营收增速，分别达到43.8%和26.7%。\n由于特斯拉未来EBIT或EBITDA增长可观，Seekingalpha分析师建议，对于习惯看营收估值倍数（企业价值/营收比率或市销率）的投资者，转用EBITDA或EBIT估值倍数来评估特斯拉股价，或许更加可取。\nSeekingalpha分析师将在后文介绍如何看这两个指标，并给出了估值模型。\n理解特斯拉EBIT估值倍数\n此处仅选取EBIT估值倍数进行讨论。考虑到特斯拉作为汽车厂商，资本支出利润率相对较高，讨论EBIT估值倍数意义较大。\n下图为特斯拉与汽车、软件公司的估值倍数混合对比：\n\n下图为特斯拉与软件公司的估值倍数对比：\n\n先简单介绍一下这两个组别的逻辑。第一组列举了部分汽车厂商。对比纯电动汽车厂商蔚来和比亚迪的远期估值倍数，特斯拉企业价值/2024财年EBIT的估值倍数为64.7倍，还算合理，并且特斯拉EBIT增速预计更快，利润率也比组内同行高。\n在第二组别中，对比头部新兴软件公司，特斯拉2024日历年的EBIT估值乘数同样显得合理。由于EBIT增长率亮眼，作为软件公司的特斯拉不输同行。Seekingalpha分析师认为，特斯拉可与Palantir或Zoom等头部新兴软件公司齐名，尽管特斯拉EBIT利润率低于其同行。\n\n在计算特斯拉的公允价值时，分析师选定EBIT估值倍数中位值60倍，得出的公允价值约为713美元。基于周四739美元的收盘价，特斯拉潜在跌幅为3.6%。\n分析师认为，巨大的EBIT增长是支撑特斯拉估值溢价的关键，且与纯电动车同行或软件同行相比，特斯拉估值溢价仍然合理。\n那么，如果以截至2024财年的预期来衡量特斯拉目前的估值是合理的话，那么在未来几年内，特斯拉股价靠什么因素冲入1000美元大关？\n市场势头与增长强劲\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的量化评级：\n\n由图可见，除了估值因素，特斯拉在其他各项评级中成绩亮眼，尤其是其增长和盈利能力，均获最高的A+评级。另一方面，特斯拉价值评级仅获F，主要是因为量化系统将特斯拉与汽车厂商进行比较，传统汽车制造商相对较低的估值影响了特斯拉的评级。\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的股价势头评级：\n\n值得注意的是，特斯拉的3个月股价表现评级为A，表明涨势大增，因为多头期待股价升至今年1月的历史最高位。可惜的是，一些投资者没有考虑到当前势头，在转跌为涨的拐点采取了看跌立场。\n虽然分析师认为估值是驱动股价的重要因素（而估值对特斯拉而言非常主观，从华尔街宽松的目标价区间可见），但投资者对增长前景的乐观态度不容忽视，因为这推动了增长势头。就特斯拉而言，多头不仅看到了电动车市场的巨大机会，还考虑了特斯拉在自动驾驶、机器人出租车、保险、能源等方面的前景，这大大催生了看涨乐观情绪，导致股价进一步爬升。\n不过，正如看跌投资者所说的，需注意的关键风险是特斯拉离实现预期目标似乎还很遥远。如果目标实现不了，估值溢价将难以持续。\n另一方面，如上文所说，特斯拉目前估值似乎与其他纯电动车同行并不脱节，看涨者当然可以认为估值合理。对投资者而言，更具挑战性的是考虑特斯拉如何冲入1000美元大关。分析师认为，目前无论是看涨者还是看跌者，在了解特斯拉的市场机会后，仍然无法提供令人信服的基本面依据。\n特斯拉股价动态和趋势分析\n下图为特斯拉的周K线图：\n\n前文强调，尽管市场上负面新闻和唱跌声音不断，但自疫情期间市场触底以来，特斯拉股票回报一直不错。这里不是说2020年为投资者提供的巨大回报，而是特斯拉股价表现中清楚反映出的长期强劲势头。\n2021年2月（第一个低点）和2021年5月（第二个低点）的双重底给当时的股市造成了很大的负面情绪。\n熊市陷阱为强大而精明的市场参与者所用，在适当的时候引诱和套牢看跌的投资者，从负面情绪中获利，并在看跌者认为疲软情绪延续时扭转股价，从而做多。读者可回顾一下2月和5月期间对特斯拉的报道，了解当时市场看跌情绪。5月双重底走势是特斯拉的看涨信号，不幸的是，许多技术分析不善的投资者往往不能及时发现市场重要信号。\n那么，特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关？\n从目前股价来看，安全系数很好。由于此前一路获利，分析师表示可以继续持有，毕竟方舟投资将特斯拉2025财年目标价设为3000美元。分析师认为，没有人能预测特斯拉能否冲入1000美元、甚至2000美元大关，也不能预测这何时发生。\n尽管如此，在分析了特斯拉目前估值、涨势、价位表现和长期上升趋势后，分析师认为这些要点或将特斯拉引向1000美元大关，而不是回落到500美元。\n最后，基于目前估值和股价表现，分析师暂时维持对特斯拉的中性评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}