To The Moon

The US stock market is undergoing significant turmoil, with concerns over the economy intensifying. President Trump’s announcement of large-scale tariffs has triggered a wave of panic selling in global markets. Further complicating the market outlook, several economic indicators point toward the possibility of a recession. Experts believe that whether the market will experience another massive sell-off depends largely on whether fears of an imminent economic recession are debunked.Growing Recession Risk in the US EconomyEconomic Data Signals Trouble AheadRecent economic predictions paint a grim picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model has downgraded its outlook for first-quarter 2025 US real GDP growth from 2.3% to a contraction of 2.825%, marking the worst quarter for the US ec

Since mid-March, international crude oil prices have experienced a rebound. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose from $65.6 per barrel on March 10 to $69.37 per barrel by March 25, an increase of about 5.7%. Similarly, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose from $68.65 per barrel to $72.54 per barrel during the same period.This price rally is driven by supply-side disruptions, including geopolitical crises and U.S. sanctions, which have led to downward revisions in crude oil production forecasts for 2025. OPEC+'s implementation of compensatory production cuts has eased concerns about oversupply. However, factors such as China’s shift to new energy vehicles and reduced oil demand in the U.S. due to tariffs and fiscal tightening make it unlikely that crude oil will break away from its oversupply trend

U.S. Economy Facing Rising Risks of RecessionSince January, recession risks in the U.S. economy have become increasingly salient. Optimistic market sentiment has subsided, and policy shifts under the Trump administration—including tariff hikes, federal budget cuts, and layoffs at Doge Corporation—have significantly dampened economic momentum.Key indicators show evident deterioration:On March 11, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell to 4.28%, down from January's optimistic peak of 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index also sharply declined from 110.17 (January 13) to 103.39 (March 11).The Atlanta Fed drastically cut its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to -2.4%, citing weak consumer spending and net exports.Recent retail sales figures notably missed expectations, consumption growth slowed sharp

Recently, the market has been volatile. Futures for $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ , $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ , $China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ , $Hang Seng Index - main 2503(HSImain)$ , $WTI Crude Oil - main 2504(CLmain)$ , $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ have been observed to rise significantly and trade actively in Tiger Trade community.In particular, the inquiry for $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ has reached a new high.At the s

In January and February 2025, copper prices both domestically and internationally have shown signs of strengthening. This trend is driven by two key factors: expectations of copper supply shortages and a recovery in copper demand, both domestically and abroad. Reflecting on the surge in copper prices from February to May 2024, it was primarily fueled by market optimism about increased copper consumption due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). However, weaker-than-expected domestic copper consumption subsequently limited the price rally.Looking ahead, we anticipate a renewed upward trend in copper prices. The primary drivers include a tightening copper supply worldwide, which has led to negative spot market treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for copper concentrates. Additio

As the COMEX gold futures price edges closer to the $3,000/oz threshold, the current gold market demonstrates a price rally driven by strengthened technical patterns and underlying spot arbitrage dynamics. This momentum is further characterized by two prominent features. With market-wide concerns that Trump’s tariff policies might impose duties on physical gold imported into the U.S., this speculation could push gold prices towards a short squeeze above 3,000 points. Thus, this issue warrants a closer examination.Two Unusual Features in the Gold Futures Market1. Expanding Cross-Market Price SpreadThe price spread between London spot gold and COMEX futures has widened to exceed 2.5 times the historical standard deviation. At present, this arbitrage creates a risk-free profit margin of over

Global financial markets experienced significant turbulence during the Spring Festival holiday period. The Trump administration's new tariff policies triggered a rollercoaster pattern in European and U.S. stock markets, with initial gains reversed, while Asian markets and international crude oil prices faced downward pressure. Notably, COMEX April gold futures hit a historic high of $2,872 per ounce on February 3. The critical question now is: How will gold prices evolve moving forward? Our analysis suggests that three fundamental bullish factors could propel gold to new highs if current conditions persist.I. Tariff Policies Amplify Market Volatility, Highlighting Gold's Safe-Haven Status1. Trump Policy Impact Exceeds ExpectationsThe February 1 executive order imposing 25% additional tarif

Since late December last year, the "Trump Trade" has driven up U.S. dollar interest rates and exchange rates. But gold didn't drop much; instead, the U.S. Dollar Index and gold prices rose together.In the short term, with the Federal Reserve's rate - cut expectations weakening and safe - haven buying cooling due to the Israel - Palestine deal, gold may face challenges. Long - term, in 2025 Q1, Trump's gradual tariff hikes could lead to re - inflation or economic slowdown, both good for gold prices. Also, U.S. fiscal issues affect the dollar's credit, and central banks' de - dollarization gold purchases make gold more likely to rise.The Impact of U.S. Dollar Interest Rates and Re - inflationThe Rebound of the Real U.S. Dollar Interest Rate Restricts Gold Prices: A strong U.S. job market in

The energy-related executive orders issued by Trump upon taking office include:Declaring a national energy emergency and fully ramping up drilling.Rebuilding the United States as a manufacturing powerhouse by leveraging the world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas.Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and exporting American energy to countries worldwide.Ending the Green New Deal, revoking mandatory electric vehicle requirements, saving the automotive industry, and revitalizing car manufacturing in the U.S. at an unprecedented pace.Trump's policies could create uncertainty in the oil market, rather than providing a clear path to lower or more stable prices. Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with WTI crude reaching over $80 per barrel, driven by supply concerns rela

Let's talk about what happened in the forex market last week and what to expect this week.Last Week's Market RecapLast week, the US dollar had a short correction but then shot up. It closed the week higher. Meanwhile, non - US currencies kept hitting new lows. On Friday, the latest non - farm data came out way better than expected. This made the market lower its hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. And this could keep the US dollar strong in the short run.The US dollar had its fifth straight week of gains. On Friday, it had a big daily jump. December's non - agricultural data showed the US created more jobs than we thought. This made people think the Fed will hold off on cutting rates as fast as they thought before. But, the Fed cares a lot about inflation data. So,