To The Moon

January 20th marked the inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, officially kicking off the "Trump 2.0" era. This inauguration was quite different from past ceremonies, breaking several long-standing American traditions. For instance, it was moved from the usual outdoor setting to indoors, foreign leaders were invited—a rare exception—and it set a new record for fundraising. These unique elements definitely made the event stand out.Now, when it comes to the financial markets, what really grabs my attention are the executive orders Trump might sign after taking office. There were plenty of expectations about his policies before, but the real question is whether there will be any surprises. These unexpected moves could shake up the markets, so it's best to tread carefully when t

2025 is a new year for every investors，but if the turmoil and conflicts increase in this year, it means that the "risk aversion" sentiment will exist for a long time, and it will have a long-term bullish effect on "risk aversion" assets. Of course, long-term bullish does not mean that there will be no major turmoil in the short term. It is just observed at the annual level that the price of gold has a certain increase every year, but the fluctuation in the middle of the year is not necessarily small.How long does the long-term bull market in gold prices last?According to the observation of the interest rate cut and depreciation cycle of the US dollar, the US dollar is in the interest rate cut stage, which usually causes inflationary sentiment; When the US dollar is in a volatile stage, it

Entering the new year, it's time to update the forward-looking series of anticipation for this year's market overview. I have shared and discussed this series with you every January since 2019. It is obvious to all how accurate it is. Although the details are slightly biased, the general direction is generally correct. I suggest you keep it for later use and continue to review it later. Be prepared for more investment. As usual, let's start with the U.S. stock index.Recently, some domestic economists are discussing the situation of the U.S. stock market, believing that the U.S. stock index will burst and fall in the next 3-6 months. Although I am skeptical about whether the data listed in the report will burst within 3-6 months, I agree that there is a bubble in the US stock index.Looking

2025 is coming soon, and I wish all investors a successful start!!!Different from previous years, since January 2025, the financial market has ushered in an important drama. Trump, the "new emperor", will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and the policies and measures implemented after his inauguration will become the focus of the financial market in the future.Because Trump, a businessman, is good at negotiation and flexibility, before the policy is fully implemented, the variables are still large, so the financial market will also cause corresponding fluctuations due to this change. Of course, after the fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the opportunity.Will U.S. stocks undergo deep adjustments?I have seen some analysis reports recently, and I am not very optimis

In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held its last interest rate meeting at the end of this year. As in the past, the results of the meeting itself have been fully expected by the market. What is important is the dot plot after the meeting and the expectation of next year's interest rate path revealed by the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech, which is the core that affects market prices. After last week's meeting, gold prices in the stock market plummeted.It shows that the market has lowered its expectation of the number of interest rate cuts next year. I'm afraid this expectation will not change until the new president takes office and the next interest rate meeting, so I hope everyone will remain cautious about the market.Does it have any impact on the US s

This Thursday night is the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting. The continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points at this meeting has been fully expected by the market, so the market focus will be on the wording of the Fed meeting announcement and the content of Powell's subsequent speech. As Trump will officially take office next year, how the chairman of the Federal Reserve deals with this "new" president is also one of the key points of this meeting. To put it simply, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid "political" issues with a neutral position at this meeting. The media are happy to speculate whether the Federal Reserve is with the new president. " Whether to "do it o

Last week, the non-farm data of the United States was released. As suggested by last week's article, the market's attention is not on the economic data of the past two months, but more on the effectiveness of Trump's economic policies after he took office. Therefore, the market performance was relatively flat last week, and the U.S. stock index hit a new high tepid. It is estimated that the pace of the Fed's interest rate cut has not changed much, and it is estimated that there will be a clearer trend after Trump takes office next year.Although the price fluctuation was not large last week, for the oil market, the news announced by OPEC + is very important and needs everyone's attention. This news is that OPEC + announced that additional voluntary production cuts will be postponed for thre

Next week is the beginning of the month, and the non-farm data will come again. The current non-farm data is the basis for the market to speculate on the path of the Fed's interest rate cut. If the data continues to improve, the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will slow down, from the previous expectation of cutting interest rates at every meeting, to cutting interest rates at every other meeting, or even stopping cutting interest rates. This has an impact on the overall trend of commodities.Gold does not react strongly to the pace of interest rate cutsFrom the perspective of impact, the impact on gold and other varieties is not great. The current important impact of gold prices lies in geopolitics, and fluctuations also come from the uncertainty of conflict news. The sha

After Trump was elected president of the United States, the market once believed that there could be a peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a short period of time. But instead，the media revealed that the U.S. government had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons provided by the United States to attack targets in Russia in depth, then Russia updated its nuclear policy, and then the two countries began to fire missiles to each other to escalate the conflict, which dispelled the market from Russia. The idea that the Ukrainian conflict can end in a short time has renewed risk aversion in the market.Gold prices have soared strongly, and new highs are expectedSince the conflict has escalated, the war premium (risk aversion) squeezed in the last two weeks has returned, cau

There were not many big events last week, but the market was not small at all. Since the US election, nothing in the financial market has risen smoothly except the US dollar and Bitcoin, and even the varieties that Trump intends to suppress have fallen one after another. At present, the market is still in the honeymoon period when the market expects the effectiveness of Trump's policies, and the main line has not changed much, which means that before Trump really takes office, strong varieties will continue to be strong, while weak varieties are more likely to continue to fall. Everyone should pay attention to it.The chairman of the Federal Reserve said at an event in Dallas last week that the current recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is good, the labor market is stable, and although i