To The Moon

The classic AI hardware battle has centered on GPUs, accelerators, interconnects, and manufacturing scale—Nvidia’s CUDA moat, AMD’s MI-series push, custom ASICs from hyperscalers, and supply-chain fights. But as models evolve from large language models into multimodal, reasoning, agentic, and especially physical/spatial systems, pure chip performance is no longer sufficient.World models demand different compute profiles: heavy simulation, 3D understanding, real-time interaction, and tight coupling between model architecture and underlying hardware/software stacks. AMD explicitly frames the deal as giving it deeper insight into emerging workloads so it can design better hardware, software, and systems around them—and strengthen an open AI ecosystem spanning models, platforms, and compute.

Near-Term Market EffectsBonds: Existing bond prices fall as yields rise (inverse relationship). Long-duration bonds suffer most. Heavy supply from deficits and AI-related corporate issuance sustains upward pressure. Equities: Higher yields compress valuations, especially for growth/tech stocks whose cash flows are distant. They also raise corporate borrowing costs and can pull capital toward safer Treasuries. The equity risk premium narrows. Sharp or rapid yield spikes have historically coincided with equity volatility or corrections, though outcomes depend on the driver (growth vs. pure inflation shock). Goldman and others have noted markets become more vulnerable when equities rally alongside rising yields. Rising yields act as a “tax” on asset valuations. Growth-oriented and long-dura

The AI Fortress Cracks — 30Y Yields at 5.44% Drag the Mag 7 into the Same Fire That Torched Everything Else One thing has held this market up for months and the legs are getting wobbly. Mega-cap Tech and AI absorbed the capital while everything rate-sensitive got crushed. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO — the Mag 7 and the AI complex (SMCI, ARM, TSM) vacuumed up every free dollar. The rest of the tape? Rate-sensitive cyclicals, regional banks, REITs, homebuilders, small caps — all left for dead. That worked as long as AI stayed insulated from the macro. The 30Y just hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Nasdaq futures are down close to a point. That is not a minor tick. When the long end of the curve is screaming like this, duration gets repriced and the high-multiple growth names f

Smart investors often prefer selling put options over buying them because selling aligns better with probability, time decay, income generation, and disciplined capital allocation. Higher probability of profitMost options expire worthless or lose value. Statistically, the majority of puts finish out-of-the-money.  Put seller: Collects the premium and wins if the stock stays flat, rises, or falls only modestly (above the strike). Win rate is often 60–80%+ depending on strike and tenor.  Time decay works in the seller’s favorOptions lose value as expiration approaches (theta decay), all else equal.  Sellers harvest this decay every day.  Buyers pay for it continuously. Implied volatility (what options price in) tends to exceed subsequent realized volatility on averag

You buy an index like the S&P 500 to spread out your risk. Here’s what you are actually holding. The five largest companies now account for a record share of expected S&P 500 earnings over the next twelve months (around the mid-to-high 20s percent range in recent analyses, with market-cap weights for the top names even higher). Top holdings by weight typically include NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG), with Broadcom (AVGO), Meta (META), Micron (MU), and AMD frequently close behind. The top 10 often represent roughly 37–40% of the index’s market capitalization—levels not seen in decades. It goes further. Information Technology (especially semiconductors) continues to dominate earnings growth. In 2026, the IT sector has been forec

Higher crude prices trigger a rapid reallocation of cash flows and valuations across equity markets. Oil functions simultaneously as a direct revenue driver for producers and a major cost input for the rest of the economy. When prices move higher and remain elevated, the impact is rarely uniform: upstream energy captures the bulk of the upside while fuel-intensive and inflation-sensitive sectors absorb the pressure. The magnitude depends on the speed of the move, absolute price levels relative to corporate cost structures, and whether the rise stems from supply constraints or genuine demand strength. Sectors and Companies Positioned to Benefit Upstream exploration and production companies experience the most direct earnings leverage. Higher realized prices expand operating margins and free

Michael Burry’s current ledger is a sea of red, but he’s still drawing a crowd. The man who earned immortality by shorting the American housing market is currently taking a beating on two fronts: a agonizing, falling-knife long bet on Lululemon and an aggressive crusade against the AI complex. The burning question across Wall Street isn't just whether Burry is wrong—it’s whether he’s finally realized that running a paid newsletter is vastly superior to wrestling a market that refuses to bend to reality. Late last year, Burry pulled the plug on Scion Asset Management, returning outside capital and citing a fundamental disconnect with market pricing, alongside the stifling straightjacket of SEC disclosures. In its place, he launched Cassandra Unchained on Substack. Charging hundreds of dolla

A. MBS already holds the clear majority of Singapore gaming revenue and EBITDA, far outpacing Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa. LVS offers more direct exposure to this premium, expanding asset plus Macau upside.Genting Singapore (or parent Genting) also expands but trails in market share and profitability. Both benefit from Singapore’s tourism growth, yet LVS is the stronger pure-play compounder on the superior property.

table 11. Visa one of my biggest holdings have been quietly compounding while everyone focus are on hyperscalers. Examples from recent data: ~31–34% in 2025/2026 periods; multi-year averages often in the high 20s to low 30s. It comfortably exceeds Visa’s cost of capital (WACC typically estimated around 8%), creating a wide positive spread and substantial economic value. This reflects Visa’s asset-light network business model: enormous operating leverage, high margins (operating margins often ~60%+), strong free cash flow conversion, and limited need for heavy capital reinvestment relative to profits. The global payments network benefits from scale, network effects, brand strength, and high switching costs—classic durable competitive advantages that support ROIC persistence

The simplest idea in the market right now remains this: almost everything comes down to two players. Mr. Dollar and Mr. Yen.Not the latest earnings report. Not the Tesla Cybercab. Not NVIDIA’s newest announcement. Two currencies are setting the price of risk, and neither is playing fair.The dollar is the world’s primary funding and reserve currency. The yen has long been the cheap source of leverage for the global carry trade. When Japanese rates stay low relative to U.S. rates and the yen weakens, borrowed yen floods into higher-yielding assets everywhere. Liquidity expands. Risk appetite rises. When that relationship threatens to reverse, the same leverage unwinds quickly.This is why the current rally keeps getting sold as an AI story. It sounds clean and fundamental. Yet one question ke