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- _无解__无解_
  ·02-13
  $恒生科技ETF(03032)$ $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $快手-W(01024)$
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- _无解__无解_
  ·2025-08-28
  $拼多多(PDD)$
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- _无解__无解_
  ·2023-04-13
  $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ gg
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- _无解__无解_
  ·2023-01-08
  。
  Focus Analysis | Ants Grow Up, Ali Retires
  在2023年1月之前，看似退隐江湖2年的马云都还是蚂蚁的实际控制人，但是历史在这一刻改写。1月7日，蚂蚁集团官网发布《关于持续完善公司治理的公告》。这份公告有3个重点，其中最引人注目的一个，就是蚂蚁集
  Focus Analysis | Ants Grow Up, Ali Retires
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- _无解__无解_
  ·2021-08-30
  ?
  Meituan Q2 revenue of 43.76 billion yuan, special reminder "or be fined"
  8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。” 主要业绩第二季度二季度营收
  Meituan Q2 revenue of 43.76 billion yuan, special reminder "or be fined"
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- _无解__无解_
  ·2021-08-20
  Reboot error
  Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy
  中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。
  Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy
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gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/651035202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628612189,"gmtCreate":1673157379542,"gmtModify":1676538793525,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628612189","repostId":"1183808598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183808598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673139017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183808598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-08 08:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Focus Analysis | Ants Grow Up, Ali Retires","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183808598","media":"36氪","summary":"在2023年1月之前，看似退隐江湖2年的马云都还是蚂蚁的实际控制人，但是历史在这一刻改写。1月7日，蚂蚁集团官网发布《关于持续完善公司治理的公告》。这份公告有3个重点，其中最引人注目的一个，就是蚂蚁集","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Before January 2023, Jack Ma, who seemed to have retired from the world for two years, was still the actual controller of Ant, but history was rewritten at this moment.</p><p>On January 7th, Ant Group's official website issued the Announcement on Continuous Improvement of Corporate Governance. There are three key points in this announcement, the most striking one of which is that the major shareholders and related beneficiaries of Ant Group plan to adjust the upper structure of Ant Group's shareholders. The core of the adjustment is the change of the voting rights of Ant Group's major shareholders.</p><p>After the adjustment, the most important concern is that Jack Ma, Ali's lifelong partner and founder, is no longer the actual controller of Ant Group. The bigger the ants get, the figures of the founders and the old Ali entrepreneurial groups slowly go away.<b>Although Ali is still an important shareholder of Ant, he no longer has the absolute management right of Ant. Ant and Ali are already two companies in any sense.</b></p><p>In fact, since the suspension of IPO, Ant Group has been rectifying, during which all kinds of news have been coming out constantly: on the business side, disconnecting Alipay from Huabei, borrowing from other financial products; In terms of management structure, more independent directors have been introduced, the management is no longer a partner of Alibaba, and the capital increase plan of Ant Consumer Gold has been approved... Pile and pile point to compliance in line with the regulatory trend, as well as the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>Is Ant's efforts to move step by step towards compliance and transparency paving the way for IPO?</p><p><b>Jack Ma \"retires\"</b></p><p>The core of Ant's shareholder structure adjustment this time is the change of the voting rights of major shareholders: from Ma Yun and his concerted actors jointly exercising the voting rights of shares, to 10 natural persons, including the management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma of Ant Group, independently exercising the voting rights of shares.</p><p>Specifically: Jack Ma and its parties acting in concert Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang have signed an agreement to terminate the acting in concert relationship at Hangzhou Yunbo level.</p><p><b>What exactly is a \"concerted action relationship\"?</b></p><p>According to public information, before today, although Jack Ma, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang held 34%, 22%, 22% and 22% equity of Hangzhou Yunbo Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. respectively, according to the company's current articles of association and the Concerted Action Agreement, Jack Ma could actually control the voting results of matters related to the shareholders' meeting of Yunbo Investment and the exercise of the shareholders' rights of Ant Group, and then indirectly control the voting rights of 53.46% shares of Ant Group.</p><p>Senior legal figures told 36Kr,<b>In essence, acting in concert agreements are agreements to control shareholders' rights, and \"acting in concert persons\" are usually the proxy holders of shares/equity. Although the equity belongs to them, the control is in the hands of others</b>。</p><p>In the case of Ant, Jack Ma, the founder of Ali and Ant, can rely on this agreement to let other share/equity holders agree to any of their proposals. In short, Jack Ma himself has always been the actual controller of Ant.</p><p>After this adjustment, the major shareholders of Ant Group exercise their voting rights independently and have no concerted action relationship, and there is no longer any direct or indirect shareholders who control Ant Group alone or jointly.</p><p>At the same time, Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou Junao, the major shareholders of Ant Group, are controlled by the same general partner enterprise (Hangzhou Yunbo), and are separately controlled by two different general partner enterprises (Hangzhou Yunbo and Hangzhou Xingtao). Jing Xiandong, Shao Xiaofeng, Ni Xingjun, Zhao Ying and Wu Minzhi will each hold 20% equity of Hangzhou Yunbo through equity transfer. The shareholders of the relevant general partner company were changed from Ma Yun and his parties acting in concert to a combination of Ant Group's management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group before this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group after this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p>Ant Group said in the announcement that after the completion of this adjustment, there will no longer be any direct or indirect shareholders controlling Ant Group alone or jointly: \"Ant Group's share voting rights are more transparent and decentralized, which is a further optimization of the corporate governance structure and will promote the sustained and steady development of Ant Group. This adjustment will not affect the daily operations of Ant Group and its subsidiaries.\"</p><p>In fact, Jack Ma lowered his voting rights in Ant Group, which is to promote further optimization of corporate governance structure. However, the founder was so generous that he gave up the actual control of the company, made the voting rights of shares more transparent and scattered, and made the decision-making power of ants truly \"transparent\". It is difficult not to think that this is a strong boost to IPO.</p><p><b>Independent director seats will be more than half, and \"Ali taste\" is weak</b></p><p>According to this announcement, since 2021, Ant Group has continuously improved its corporate governance level. At present, there are four independent directors among the eight directors of the board of directors, and there are six special committees under it. On this basis, it plans to continue to introduce the fifth independent director to achieve more than half of the independent director seats on the board of directors, while \"Ali Flavor\" retreats slightly.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the introduction of independent directors has been the focus of Ant's management structure adjustment. The independent director system is an important system in modern corporate governance, which is very important to the transparency of board governance and the use of power.</p><p>On June 1, 2022, the official website of Ant Group updated the information of the board of directors team, and two new women, Yang Xiaolei and Shi Meilun, were appointed as independent directors.</p><p>Among the two female independent directors, Shi Meilun attracts more attention. In Hong Kong, Shi Meilun joined the top management of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission as early as 1990s, and was famous in the financial circles of both places as the \"Iron Lady\". On the mainland, she is the first deputy ministerial-level cadre hired from Hong Kong since the reform and opening up: the vice chairman of the CSRC.</p><p>Shi Meilun's latest position is the chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and he has changed from serving as the regulatory position of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to the head of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the one hand, Shi Meilun has been linking the financial and industrial circles of Hong Kong and the Mainland, adhering to strict financial supervision, urging mainland companies to comply with regulations and integrate with the international capital market, listing in Hong Kong, and actively stabilizing Hong Kong's position as a financial center. Shi Meilun has said many times: Hong Kong's financial market is the bridge between the mainland and the world. Her vision is highly consistent with the \"significance\" of Ant's IPO.</p><p>Ant introduced more independent directors to make the board structure more transparent.</p><p>In June 2022, the structure of the board of directors of Ant Group changed. In the past, the board of directors of Ant consisted of three executive directors: Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Ni Xingjun, three non-executive directors: Cai Chongxin, Cheng Li and Jiang Fang, and three independent directors: Hao Quan, Hu Zuliu and Huang Yiping.</p><p>The new Board has been changed to two Directors: Jing Xiandong and Ni Xingjun, two non-executive Directors: Cai Chongxin and Cheng Li, and four independent Directors: Hao Quan, Huang Yiping, Shi Meilun and Yang Xiaolei.</p><p>In the new board of directors, Hu Xiaoming, a partner of Ali who has resigned as CEO, also resigned as executive director, and Jiang Fang, one of Ali's entrepreneurial veterans \"Eighteen Arhats\", resigned as non-executive director. Today, relevant management members of Ant Group no longer serve as Alibaba partners, and the isolation from shareholder Alibaba Group has been strengthened. The subtle retreat of \"Ali\" in the ant system was explained by the ant as: further improving the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>In the future, the number of independent directors of Ant will rise from the current 4 to 5, accounting for the majority of the board of directors, which is to amplify the balance and supervision role of independent directors, which is conducive to the board of directors to perform their duties more independently, and also points to the \"transparency\" of the company's decision-making.</p><p>Among Ant's management, \"compliance\" has also been further emphasized. In July 2021, Ant announced a new management team of 15 people. Compared with the past team of 20 people, Li Chen, CCO (Chief Compliance Officer), Yin Ming (former life executive), vice president in charge of Ant Group's strategic development department, and Zhao Wenbiao, vice president in charge of the big security business group, were added. The position of Chief Compliance Officer (CCO) simply did not exist in the original team.</p><p>\"Transparency\" and \"compliance\" are important prerequisites for ants to return to the IPO road. New ants need more people with \"compliance\" attributes and backgrounds to stand on the board of directors and management to show the new look of ants to the outside world.</p><p>The vicissitudes of life, financial technology, which was once a hot concept in the capital market and entrepreneurship, are now dimming. Looking at the whole world, the valuation, financing and listing of financial technology companies have become difficult problems.</p><p>In May 2022, Swedish start-up Klarna Bank AB suffered a cold new round of funding, with its valuation shrinking to $30 billion from $46 billion a year ago. US Fintech Affirm Shares Plunge; Bolt, a Silicon Valley unicorn that focuses on payment, online investment and other businesses, was laid off.</p><p>From policy support, endorsement and blessing by countless heavyweight shareholders, hot, and star companies with multiple dividends endorsed by Alibaba, a powerful parent company, to the suspension of IPO overnight, and then to changing themselves step by step, the fate of ants seems extremely special, but it is extremely universal: the business world is always turbulent and fickle.</p><p>Ant's active reorganization of the board of directors, the introduction of independent directors, the promotion of isolation from Alibaba's, and even the fact that founder Jack Ma gave up actual control are all obvious signals: can re-establishing the organizational structure meet the requirements for applying for a financial holding company license? Does this mean that Ant is ready to restart IPO?</p><p>The fate of ants, for the whole Internet industry, will be one of the most critical regulatory vanes in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Focus Analysis | Ants Grow Up, Ali Retires</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFocus Analysis | Ants Grow Up, Ali Retires\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-08 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Before January 2023, Jack Ma, who seemed to have retired from the world for two years, was still the actual controller of Ant, but history was rewritten at this moment.</p><p>On January 7th, Ant Group's official website issued the Announcement on Continuous Improvement of Corporate Governance. There are three key points in this announcement, the most striking one of which is that the major shareholders and related beneficiaries of Ant Group plan to adjust the upper structure of Ant Group's shareholders. The core of the adjustment is the change of the voting rights of Ant Group's major shareholders.</p><p>After the adjustment, the most important concern is that Jack Ma, Ali's lifelong partner and founder, is no longer the actual controller of Ant Group. The bigger the ants get, the figures of the founders and the old Ali entrepreneurial groups slowly go away.<b>Although Ali is still an important shareholder of Ant, he no longer has the absolute management right of Ant. Ant and Ali are already two companies in any sense.</b></p><p>In fact, since the suspension of IPO, Ant Group has been rectifying, during which all kinds of news have been coming out constantly: on the business side, disconnecting Alipay from Huabei, borrowing from other financial products; In terms of management structure, more independent directors have been introduced, the management is no longer a partner of Alibaba, and the capital increase plan of Ant Consumer Gold has been approved... Pile and pile point to compliance in line with the regulatory trend, as well as the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>Is Ant's efforts to move step by step towards compliance and transparency paving the way for IPO?</p><p><b>Jack Ma \"retires\"</b></p><p>The core of Ant's shareholder structure adjustment this time is the change of the voting rights of major shareholders: from Ma Yun and his concerted actors jointly exercising the voting rights of shares, to 10 natural persons, including the management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma of Ant Group, independently exercising the voting rights of shares.</p><p>Specifically: Jack Ma and its parties acting in concert Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang have signed an agreement to terminate the acting in concert relationship at Hangzhou Yunbo level.</p><p><b>What exactly is a \"concerted action relationship\"?</b></p><p>According to public information, before today, although Jack Ma, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang held 34%, 22%, 22% and 22% equity of Hangzhou Yunbo Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. respectively, according to the company's current articles of association and the Concerted Action Agreement, Jack Ma could actually control the voting results of matters related to the shareholders' meeting of Yunbo Investment and the exercise of the shareholders' rights of Ant Group, and then indirectly control the voting rights of 53.46% shares of Ant Group.</p><p>Senior legal figures told 36Kr,<b>In essence, acting in concert agreements are agreements to control shareholders' rights, and \"acting in concert persons\" are usually the proxy holders of shares/equity. Although the equity belongs to them, the control is in the hands of others</b>。</p><p>In the case of Ant, Jack Ma, the founder of Ali and Ant, can rely on this agreement to let other share/equity holders agree to any of their proposals. In short, Jack Ma himself has always been the actual controller of Ant.</p><p>After this adjustment, the major shareholders of Ant Group exercise their voting rights independently and have no concerted action relationship, and there is no longer any direct or indirect shareholders who control Ant Group alone or jointly.</p><p>At the same time, Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou Junao, the major shareholders of Ant Group, are controlled by the same general partner enterprise (Hangzhou Yunbo), and are separately controlled by two different general partner enterprises (Hangzhou Yunbo and Hangzhou Xingtao). Jing Xiandong, Shao Xiaofeng, Ni Xingjun, Zhao Ying and Wu Minzhi will each hold 20% equity of Hangzhou Yunbo through equity transfer. The shareholders of the relevant general partner company were changed from Ma Yun and his parties acting in concert to a combination of Ant Group's management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group before this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group after this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p>Ant Group said in the announcement that after the completion of this adjustment, there will no longer be any direct or indirect shareholders controlling Ant Group alone or jointly: \"Ant Group's share voting rights are more transparent and decentralized, which is a further optimization of the corporate governance structure and will promote the sustained and steady development of Ant Group. This adjustment will not affect the daily operations of Ant Group and its subsidiaries.\"</p><p>In fact, Jack Ma lowered his voting rights in Ant Group, which is to promote further optimization of corporate governance structure. However, the founder was so generous that he gave up the actual control of the company, made the voting rights of shares more transparent and scattered, and made the decision-making power of ants truly \"transparent\". It is difficult not to think that this is a strong boost to IPO.</p><p><b>Independent director seats will be more than half, and \"Ali taste\" is weak</b></p><p>According to this announcement, since 2021, Ant Group has continuously improved its corporate governance level. At present, there are four independent directors among the eight directors of the board of directors, and there are six special committees under it. On this basis, it plans to continue to introduce the fifth independent director to achieve more than half of the independent director seats on the board of directors, while \"Ali Flavor\" retreats slightly.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the introduction of independent directors has been the focus of Ant's management structure adjustment. The independent director system is an important system in modern corporate governance, which is very important to the transparency of board governance and the use of power.</p><p>On June 1, 2022, the official website of Ant Group updated the information of the board of directors team, and two new women, Yang Xiaolei and Shi Meilun, were appointed as independent directors.</p><p>Among the two female independent directors, Shi Meilun attracts more attention. In Hong Kong, Shi Meilun joined the top management of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission as early as 1990s, and was famous in the financial circles of both places as the \"Iron Lady\". On the mainland, she is the first deputy ministerial-level cadre hired from Hong Kong since the reform and opening up: the vice chairman of the CSRC.</p><p>Shi Meilun's latest position is the chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and he has changed from serving as the regulatory position of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to the head of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the one hand, Shi Meilun has been linking the financial and industrial circles of Hong Kong and the Mainland, adhering to strict financial supervision, urging mainland companies to comply with regulations and integrate with the international capital market, listing in Hong Kong, and actively stabilizing Hong Kong's position as a financial center. Shi Meilun has said many times: Hong Kong's financial market is the bridge between the mainland and the world. Her vision is highly consistent with the \"significance\" of Ant's IPO.</p><p>Ant introduced more independent directors to make the board structure more transparent.</p><p>In June 2022, the structure of the board of directors of Ant Group changed. In the past, the board of directors of Ant consisted of three executive directors: Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Ni Xingjun, three non-executive directors: Cai Chongxin, Cheng Li and Jiang Fang, and three independent directors: Hao Quan, Hu Zuliu and Huang Yiping.</p><p>The new Board has been changed to two Directors: Jing Xiandong and Ni Xingjun, two non-executive Directors: Cai Chongxin and Cheng Li, and four independent Directors: Hao Quan, Huang Yiping, Shi Meilun and Yang Xiaolei.</p><p>In the new board of directors, Hu Xiaoming, a partner of Ali who has resigned as CEO, also resigned as executive director, and Jiang Fang, one of Ali's entrepreneurial veterans \"Eighteen Arhats\", resigned as non-executive director. Today, relevant management members of Ant Group no longer serve as Alibaba partners, and the isolation from shareholder Alibaba Group has been strengthened. The subtle retreat of \"Ali\" in the ant system was explained by the ant as: further improving the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>In the future, the number of independent directors of Ant will rise from the current 4 to 5, accounting for the majority of the board of directors, which is to amplify the balance and supervision role of independent directors, which is conducive to the board of directors to perform their duties more independently, and also points to the \"transparency\" of the company's decision-making.</p><p>Among Ant's management, \"compliance\" has also been further emphasized. In July 2021, Ant announced a new management team of 15 people. Compared with the past team of 20 people, Li Chen, CCO (Chief Compliance Officer), Yin Ming (former life executive), vice president in charge of Ant Group's strategic development department, and Zhao Wenbiao, vice president in charge of the big security business group, were added. The position of Chief Compliance Officer (CCO) simply did not exist in the original team.</p><p>\"Transparency\" and \"compliance\" are important prerequisites for ants to return to the IPO road. New ants need more people with \"compliance\" attributes and backgrounds to stand on the board of directors and management to show the new look of ants to the outside world.</p><p>The vicissitudes of life, financial technology, which was once a hot concept in the capital market and entrepreneurship, are now dimming. Looking at the whole world, the valuation, financing and listing of financial technology companies have become difficult problems.</p><p>In May 2022, Swedish start-up Klarna Bank AB suffered a cold new round of funding, with its valuation shrinking to $30 billion from $46 billion a year ago. US Fintech Affirm Shares Plunge; Bolt, a Silicon Valley unicorn that focuses on payment, online investment and other businesses, was laid off.</p><p>From policy support, endorsement and blessing by countless heavyweight shareholders, hot, and star companies with multiple dividends endorsed by Alibaba, a powerful parent company, to the suspension of IPO overnight, and then to changing themselves step by step, the fate of ants seems extremely special, but it is extremely universal: the business world is always turbulent and fickle.</p><p>Ant's active reorganization of the board of directors, the introduction of independent directors, the promotion of isolation from Alibaba's, and even the fact that founder Jack Ma gave up actual control are all obvious signals: can re-establishing the organizational structure meet the requirements for applying for a financial holding company license? Does this mean that Ant is ready to restart IPO?</p><p>The fate of ants, for the whole Internet industry, will be one of the most critical regulatory vanes in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/2077901427986437\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed47e720e2c8ac868f5b3114fdde0f64","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/2077901427986437","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183808598","content_text":"在2023年1月之前，看似退隐江湖2年的马云都还是蚂蚁的实际控制人，但是历史在这一刻改写。1月7日，蚂蚁集团官网发布《关于持续完善公司治理的公告》。这份公告有3个重点，其中最引人注目的一个，就是蚂蚁集团主要股东及相关受益人拟对蚂蚁集团股东上层结构进行调整，调整的核心是蚂蚁集团主要股东投票权的变化。调整之后最重磅的关注点，莫过于阿里终身合伙人、创始人马云，不再是蚂蚁集团的实际控制人。蚂蚁越长越大，创始人和老阿里创业天团们的身影慢慢走远。阿里虽然依然是蚂蚁的重要股东，却不再拥有蚂蚁的绝对管理权，蚂蚁和阿里，在任何意义上都已经是两家公司。实际上，中止IPO以来，蚂蚁集团一直在整改，期间不断传出的各种消息：业务侧，断开支付宝与花呗、借呗与其他金融产品的连接；管理结构上，引入更多独立董事，管理层不再担任阿里巴巴合伙人，蚂蚁消金增资方案获批……桩桩件件都指向了符合监管风向的合规性，以及公司治理的透明度和有效性。蚂蚁这样努力得一步一步走向合规、透明，是否是为IPO铺路？马云“退隐”蚂蚁本次对股东结构调整的核心，是主要股东投票权的变化：从马云及其一致行动人共同行使股份表决权，到包括蚂蚁集团管理层、员工代表和创始人马云在内的10名自然人，分别独立行使股份表决权。具体而言：马云及其一致行动人井贤栋、胡晓明及蒋芳已签署协议，终止在杭州云铂层面的一致行动关系。“一致行动关系”究竟是什么？公开资料显示，在今天之前，虽然马云、井贤栋、胡晓明及蒋芳分别持有杭州云铂投资咨询有限公司34%、22%、22%及22%的股权，但根据该公司的现行章程及《一致行动协议》，马云能够实际支配云铂投资股东会、行使蚂蚁集团股东权利相关事项的表决结果，进而间接控制蚂蚁集团53.46%股份的表决权。资深法律界人士告诉36氪，本质上，一致行动协议就是协议控制各项股东权利，而“一致行动人”通常都是股份/股权的代持人，股权虽然属于他们，但是控制权在他人手里。放在蚂蚁的案例中，阿里和蚂蚁创始人马云，可以凭借这个协议，让其他股份/股权代持人同意自己的任何提议。简言之，一直以来，马云本人就是蚂蚁的实际控制人。而此次调整之后，蚂蚁集团各主要股东彼此独立行使股份表决权且无一致行动关系，不再存在任何直接或间接股东单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形。同时，蚂蚁集团的主要股东杭州君瀚和杭州君澳由受同一家普通合伙人企业（杭州云铂）控制，分拆为受两家不同普通合伙人企业（杭州云铂和杭州星滔）分别控制。井贤栋、邵晓锋、倪行军、赵颖、吴敏芝将通过股权转让分别持有杭州云铂20%的股权。相关普通合伙人公司股东由马云及其一致行动人，变更为蚂蚁集团管理层、员工代表和创始人马云的组合。本次调整前蚂蚁集团股权结构（图片来源：蚂蚁官网）本次调整后蚂蚁集团股权结构（图片来源：蚂蚁官网）蚂蚁集团在公告中称，在此次调整完成后，不再存在任何直接或间接股东单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形：“蚂蚁集团的股份表决权更加透明且分散，这是对公司治理结构的进一步优化，将对蚂蚁集团的持续稳健发展起到促进作用。本次调整不会对蚂蚁集团及下属公司的日常经营造成影响。”实际上，马云降低了他在蚂蚁集团的投票权，就是在推动公司治理结构进一步优化。而创始人如此大度，放弃了公司实际控制权，让股份的表决权更加透明、分散，让蚂蚁的决策权真正“透明”，很难不让人认为，这是对IPO的大力助推。独立董事席位将过半，“阿里味”弱了这次的公告称，自2021年以来，蚂蚁集团持续提升公司治理水平，目前董事会8名董事中包含四名独立董事，下设六个专门委员会。在此基础上，其计划继续引入第5名独立董事，实现董事会中独立董事席位过半数，而“阿里味”则微妙后退。今年以来，引入独立董事，就是蚂蚁管理结构调整的重点。独立董事制度，就是现代公司治理中的重要制度，对董事会治理的透明度、权力的使用，至关重要。2022年，6月1日，蚂蚁集团官网更新董事会团队信息，新聘杨小蕾、史美伦两名女性担任独立董事。两位女性独立董事中，史美伦更引人关注。于香港，史美伦早在上世纪90年代就跻身香港证监会高层，以“铁娘子”之名闻名两地金融界。于内地，她是改革开放以来从香港聘请的第一位副部级干部：中国证监会副主席。史美伦最新的职务是港交所主席，由任职香港证监会的监管立场，转变为港交所的负责人。令一方面，史美伦一直在链接香港和内地金融、实业界，坚持金融监管的严厉，力促内地公司合规、和国际资本市场接轨，赴港上市，也积极稳固香港金融中心的地位。史美伦曾多次说过：香港金融市场是连接内地与世界的桥梁。她的愿景和蚂蚁IPO的“意义”高度一致。蚂蚁引入更多的独立董事，是为了让董事会结构更加透明。2022年6月，蚂蚁集团董事会架构发生变化。过去蚂蚁董事会组成为：三位执行董事：井贤栋、胡晓明、倪行军，三位非执行董事：蔡崇信、程立、蒋芳，三位独立董事：郝荃、胡祖六、黄益平。新董事会改为两位董事：井贤栋、倪行军，两位非执行董事：蔡崇信、程立，四位独立董事：郝荃、黄益平、史美伦、杨小蕾。新董事会中，已卸任CEO的阿里合伙人胡晓明也卸任了执行董事，阿里创业元老“十八罗汉”之一的蒋芳卸任了非执行董事。如今，蚂蚁集团相关管理层成员不再担任阿里巴巴合伙人，与股东阿里巴巴集团的隔离也被强化。“阿里”在蚂蚁体系中微妙的后退，被蚂蚁解释为：进一步提升公司治理的透明度和有效性。未来，蚂蚁独立董事从现在的4人上升到5人，在董事会中占多数，是在放大独立董事平衡和监督的作用，有利于董事会更独立地履职，也指向公司决策的“透明”。蚂蚁管理层中，“合规”也被进一步强调。2021年7月，蚂蚁公布了新的15人管理团队，相较过去的20人团队，新增了CCO（首席合规官）李臣、负责蚂蚁集团战略发展部的副总裁尹铭（前人寿高管）、负责大安全事业群的副总裁赵闻飙。而首席合规官（CCO）这个职位，在原有团队中根本不存在。“透明”、“合规”，都是蚂蚁重回IPO之路的重要的前提。新蚂蚁，需要更多有“合规”属性和背景的人站在董事会和管理层里，向外界展示蚂蚁全新的面貌。沧海桑田，金融科技，这个曾经在资本市场和创业领域炙手可热的概念，如今，却黯淡下去放眼整个世界，金融科技公司们的估值、融资、上市，都成了难题。2022年5月，瑞典初创企业Klarna Bank AB新一轮融资遇冷，估值从一年前的460亿美元缩水至300亿美元。美国金融科技公司Affirm股价暴跌；专注支付、在线投顾等业务的硅谷独角兽Bolt则被爆裁员。从政策支持，有无数重量级股东背书加持，炙手可热，还有强大母公司阿里巴巴背书的多重红利加身的明星公司，到一夜之间中止IPO，再到一步步改变自己，蚂蚁的命运似乎极其特殊，却又极其普世：商业世界永远云谲波诡，变幻无常。而蚂蚁积极改组董事会，引入独立董事、推进与阿里巴巴的隔离，乃至创始人马云都放弃了实际控制权，都是明显的信号：重新建立组织结构，是否就可以满足申请金融控股公司牌照的要求，这是否意味着蚂蚁准备重启IPO？蚂蚁的命运，对整个互联网行业而言，将是2023最关键的监管风向标之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811877004,"gmtCreate":1630313546008,"gmtModify":1676530265322,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811877004","repostId":"1107044337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107044337","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630312834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107044337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 16:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Meituan Q2 revenue of 43.76 billion yuan, special reminder \"or be fined\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107044337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收","content":"<p>On Monday, Aug. 30, local lifestyle services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced the second quarter and first half of 2021 financial results. The company's second-quarter results exceeded expectations, but at the same time prompted \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>KEY RESULTS</b></p><p>Second Quarter</p><p><ul><li>The revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimate was 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated loss was 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with a profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the first half<b>807.75</b>RMB41.476 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>First half net profit<b>-8.203 billion yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with a profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan's businesses continued to maintain steady growth during the quarter, which was attributable to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy and the deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given the US Mission a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help the high-quality economic development, provide high-quality life services, and help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities decreased to RMB2.9 billion in the second quarter from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB71.4 billion and RMB51.1 billion, respectively, as compared to the related balances of RMB17.8 billion and RMB35.3 billion as of March 31, 2021, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In-store, hotel and tourism segments continued to grow steadily in the second quarter, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the corresponding period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, revenue from the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB12 billion, primarily driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and ride-sharing services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Number of trading users hits record high, platform activity rises</b></p><p>According to the financial report, this quarter, the number of annual transaction users and active merchants in Meituan was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of transactions by users reached 32.8, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main businesses, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses both achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to RMB23.1 billion and RMB8.6 billion, respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million, and the cost of riders in the second quarter was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide certain rights and interests and employment protection for the majority of riders, take the lead in responding to the national call and solving their worries. In the process of continuing to help the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, constantly optimize operating efficiency with long-term returns as the guide, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>ANALYSIS OF RESULTS AND OUTLOOK</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the Company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses from new business and other segments have widened.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) of the People's Republic of China launched a relevant investigation against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As at the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company is unable to predict the circumstances or outcome of the relevant investigations at this stage and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's share price changes and reasons after the announcement of previous quarterly financial reports</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meituan Q2 revenue of 43.76 billion yuan, special reminder \"or be fined\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeituan Q2 revenue of 43.76 billion yuan, special reminder \"or be fined\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 16:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Monday, Aug. 30, local lifestyle services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced the second quarter and first half of 2021 financial results. The company's second-quarter results exceeded expectations, but at the same time prompted \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>KEY RESULTS</b></p><p>Second Quarter</p><p><ul><li>The revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimate was 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated loss was 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with a profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the first half<b>807.75</b>RMB41.476 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>First half net profit<b>-8.203 billion yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with a profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan's businesses continued to maintain steady growth during the quarter, which was attributable to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy and the deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given the US Mission a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help the high-quality economic development, provide high-quality life services, and help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities decreased to RMB2.9 billion in the second quarter from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB71.4 billion and RMB51.1 billion, respectively, as compared to the related balances of RMB17.8 billion and RMB35.3 billion as of March 31, 2021, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In-store, hotel and tourism segments continued to grow steadily in the second quarter, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the corresponding period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, revenue from the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB12 billion, primarily driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and ride-sharing services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Number of trading users hits record high, platform activity rises</b></p><p>According to the financial report, this quarter, the number of annual transaction users and active merchants in Meituan was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of transactions by users reached 32.8, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main businesses, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses both achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to RMB23.1 billion and RMB8.6 billion, respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million, and the cost of riders in the second quarter was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide certain rights and interests and employment protection for the majority of riders, take the lead in responding to the national call and solving their worries. In the process of continuing to help the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, constantly optimize operating efficiency with long-term returns as the guide, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>ANALYSIS OF RESULTS AND OUTLOOK</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the Company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses from new business and other segments have widened.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) of the People's Republic of China launched a relevant investigation against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As at the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company is unable to predict the circumstances or outcome of the relevant investigations at this stage and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's share price changes and reasons after the announcement of previous quarterly financial reports</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107044337","content_text":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收437.6亿元，同比增长77%，市场预估423.6亿元。\n二季度净亏损33.6亿元，市场预估亏损52.5亿元，去年同期净利润22.1亿元。\n二季度每股亏损0.56元，去年同期盈利0.37元。\n\n\n上半年\n\n上半年营收807.75亿元，前值：414.76亿元，同比增长94.8%。\n上半年净利润-82.03亿元，前值：6.31亿元。\n上半年每股亏损1.38元，去年同期盈利0.11元。\n\n\n美团CEO王兴表示：\n\n 本季度美团各项业务继续保持稳健增长，得益于中国经济持续稳定恢复，也源于我们将数字化与实体经济、服务经济深度融合。\n\n\n 最近，国家相关部门出台了系列政策和意见，这也给了美团更明确的方向，我们坚决落实，积极履行社会责任，继续用科技的力量，助力经济高质量发展，提供高品质生活服务，帮大家吃得更好，生活更好。\n\n\n业务分类\n\n第二季度的经营活动所得现金流入净额由2020年同期的人民币56亿元减少至人民币29亿元。截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物及短期理财投资的结余分别为人民币714亿元及人民币511亿元，而截至2021年3月31日的相关结余则分别为人民币178亿元及人民币353亿元。\n第二季度，餐饮外卖业务交易金额同比增长59.5%至人民币1,736亿元。餐饮外卖日均交易笔数同比增长58.9%至38.9百万笔。收入同比增长59.0%至人民币231亿元。经营溢利于2021年第二季度增加95.2%至人民币24亿元，而经营利润率则由8.6%进一步改善至10.6%。\n第二季度，到店、酒店及旅游分部继续稳定增长，收入同比增加89.3%至人民币86亿元。经营溢利由2020年同期的人民币19亿元增加93.7%至2021年第二季度的人民币37亿元，而经营利润率则由41.6%增加至42.6%。\n第二季度，新业务及其他分部的收入同比增长113.6%至人民币120亿元，主要受零售业务、B2B餐饮供应链服务及共享骑行服务增长的推动。2021年第二季度，该分部的经营亏损同比及环比增长至人民币92亿元，而经营亏损率则继续改善4.8个百分点至负76.8%。\n\n\n\n交易用户数创历史新高 平台活跃度上升\n财报显示，本季度美团年度交易用户数和活跃商家数分别为6.3亿和770万，均创历史新高。\n用户年均交易笔数达32.8笔，同比增长27.8%。主体业务方面，餐饮外卖和到店酒旅业务均实现稳健增长，收入分别增至231亿元和86亿元。\n同时，2021年上半年，美团继续发挥“就业蓄水池”作用，日均活跃骑手超过100万人，二季度骑手成本支出155亿元，同比增长53%。\n调研数据还显示，6成全职骑手月收入高于5000元。\n美团CFO陈少晖表示：\n\n 美团将继续为广大骑手群体提供确定的权益及就业保障，率先响应国家号召，解决他们的后顾之忧。在以科技创新继续助力实体经济的过程中，我们也会继续关注商家等其他平台参与方共同的利益和长远发展，以长期回报为导向，不断优化经营效率，以创造更大的社会价值为企业首要目标。\n\n\n业绩分析及前景预期\n美团表示：由于我们继续投资于能够为本公司带来长期价值并为消费者和商家提供更好产品和服务的领域，新业务及其他分部的经营亏损随之扩大。\n2021年4月，中华人民共和国国家市场监督管理总局（国家市场监督管理总局）根据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》对本公司展开相关调查。截至本报告日期，相关调查仍在进行，本公司积极配合国家市场监督管理总局的调查。本公司于现阶段无法预测相关调查的情况或结果，本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。\n美团过往季度财报公布后股价变动情况及原因","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838698947,"gmtCreate":1629388849789,"gmtModify":1676530026958,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reboot &nbsp;error","listText":"Reboot &nbsp;error","text":"Reboot error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838698947","repostId":"1198913754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198913754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198913754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198913754","media":"Alpha","summary":"中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。","content":"<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to balancing growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining security. This will allow the division of economic interests to turn more towards the labor and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have long-lasting and far-reaching market implications.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying logic of regulation brought about by new targets</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to focus more on sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy. China's restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions are the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits towards workers, which will lead to a decline in the share of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We remain closely monitored for possible \"over-regulation\" risks. Also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals that employee welfare issues are resolved in platform companies, or speeches from weighty top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect that this reset will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but it is mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China's index, accounting for about 40% to 50% of MSCI China. The uncertainty of future revenue and profit margin of this segment is still large.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform enterprises, as well as real estate enterprises, are still under policy repression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: A decades-long effort to eradicate absolute poverty follows new goals of social equality, data security, and autonomy.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk and environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of a certain industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market volatility due to over-regulation, inadequate policy coordination, inadequate policy communication, and, ultimately, possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observable event resolution landmarks:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on the China Equity Index is mainly in MSCI China (47% of the Internet):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>A new era, a new goal: We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a change in China's underlying logic, not just for the Internet giants. Beijing's core goals over the past decade have been to maintain double-digit income growth and eradicate absolute poverty, giving the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together- - -common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and introduced new government KPIs including social balance, controllable supply chain, and data security.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months has reflected this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining labor compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to a systematic decline in valuation of some sectors. We believe policymakers must face a serious balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the viability of the private sector to promote innovation and help internationalize the yuan and capital flows. Although the new regulations impose restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that there will be no significant impact on other equity segments.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A lot of the content of this supervision is actually old content. Why has it suddenly accelerated in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 06-08, the dairy industry in 08-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, the game in 18 years, and the drugs in 18-19 years, most of which have existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid the industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, innovative biopharmaceuticals and other new economic sectors.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform in 2015-2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a copy entitled<b>\"Consumption 2030:\" Service \"First\"</b>The report said that by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo dramatic changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value for GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, the per capita income of Chinese households will double by 2030, while purchasing power will be dominated by the 35-44 and 55-year-olds (baby boomers and their children born in the 1960s). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the present \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will become increasingly dependent on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States as the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that the average household income in China will rise from US$6,000 to US$12,000 by 2030. The important drivers of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continued reforms to attract foreign investment inflows.</p><p>While an ageing population naturally increases consumption rates, China's policymakers are also striving to promote internal economic circulation strategies to unlock China's consumption potential, primarily aimed at addressing the challenges posed to China's exports by a multipolar post-COVID era.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects, and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, it is through reform to eliminate bottlenecks affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and hukou.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect China's consumer market to double in the next decade to reach $12.7 trillion, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of $9.7 trillion.</p><p><b>This means that China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9% over the next decade, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our predictions come true, even when service consumption is included, China will become the world's largest consumer market in a decade.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market over the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption during the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from Western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we observe a steady upward trend. On the one hand, China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy that has lasted for many years has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to take care of their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What tracks are worth voting for?</b></p><p>Investment Framework We Use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to household needs and retirement planning, we expect corresponding changes across industries. To better analyze these changes, we have divided many industries into four broad categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, we will face structural growth, such as: property management, medical services, old-age services, medical insurance, education, domestic and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolution</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>There will be structural changes in the coming years. It is divided into two categories. First, evolving business models, such as integrated platforms, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer) business models, and wider AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(Industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that will be limited in size in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence by 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer), dating services, consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, i.e. Environmental protection, Social responsibility and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Ex-Growth</b>(Those mature industries disrupted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on our outlook for the next decade lays the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Let's further refine this classification system, and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on a company's competitiveness within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect stable and rapid growth in institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, old-age services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart home, and electric vehicles), and life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions, such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms).</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being disrupted. We also expect a slowdown in some fast-growing industries, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five drivers of the size growth and pattern evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by a steady growth in service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will increase steadily. In the next decade, the average annual compound growth rate of China's service consumption is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>The trend may be related to two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to an ageing population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly population. Now, this phenomenon is likely to transform into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of big data and other technologies. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technology, and with the wide application of basic technologies, the threshold of services will continue to be lowered.</p><p><b>(2) Demographic characteristics – the most important generational transitions occur within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy over the past few decades have led to an uneven distribution of the population across age groups; The rapid changes in China's economy over the past few decades have also led to a different distribution of income levels across age groups than in ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our study, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution are 35 to 44 and 55+.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated on household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from a youth-dominated pattern in 2020 to a pattern dominated by household needs and retirement plans in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's Unique Consumption Growth Path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also very much in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to achieve faster, safer, greener and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends that promote consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance household spending power.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread use of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super apps, IoT-based smart homes, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to unlock consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 Five-Year Plans will focus on developing domestic demand-driven sustainable growth in response to a multipolar post-COVID world, and are also striving to promote economic internal circulation strategies to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77 percent, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17 percent.</p><p>At present, China's urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on the supply side and the demand side to eliminate consumption bottlenecks in the next few years. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading the high-speed rail network, and providing convenience for consumption returning to shore. Demand-side measures include increasing social welfare coverage, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influence from consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences between different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy, Chinese consumers and consumers in Western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought a lot of Western elements to the contemporary Chinese lifestyle, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Value family bonds very much and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. There are often long-term goals when spending.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyle between different age groups (such as online platform use and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Antitrust measures against integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on integrated Internet technology platforms. Antitrust policies issued by the government are designed to prevent big technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded oversight of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be modest because China's household balance sheets overall still look healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit, or even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on consumption growth.</p><p><b>(3) The relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively boost consumption by lowering the amount of money people are saving to cope with future uncertainties. Therefore, if the reform in these areas is advanced slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>One big advantage that China has is the low resistance to consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is upgraded, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the public's acceptance of big data applications to some extent, thus reducing the risk in this respect.</p><p><b>(5) Inadvertently caused social problems:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence could lead to worse unemployment problems than anticipated, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some of the problems, but if high technology is applied too quickly, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>","source":"lsy1628997733188","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to balancing growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining security. This will allow the division of economic interests to turn more towards the labor and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have long-lasting and far-reaching market implications.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying logic of regulation brought about by new targets</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to focus more on sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy. China's restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions are the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits towards workers, which will lead to a decline in the share of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We remain closely monitored for possible \"over-regulation\" risks. Also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals that employee welfare issues are resolved in platform companies, or speeches from weighty top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect that this reset will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but it is mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China's index, accounting for about 40% to 50% of MSCI China. The uncertainty of future revenue and profit margin of this segment is still large.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform enterprises, as well as real estate enterprises, are still under policy repression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: A decades-long effort to eradicate absolute poverty follows new goals of social equality, data security, and autonomy.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk and environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of a certain industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market volatility due to over-regulation, inadequate policy coordination, inadequate policy communication, and, ultimately, possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observable event resolution landmarks:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on the China Equity Index is mainly in MSCI China (47% of the Internet):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>A new era, a new goal: We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a change in China's underlying logic, not just for the Internet giants. Beijing's core goals over the past decade have been to maintain double-digit income growth and eradicate absolute poverty, giving the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together- - -common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and introduced new government KPIs including social balance, controllable supply chain, and data security.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months has reflected this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining labor compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to a systematic decline in valuation of some sectors. We believe policymakers must face a serious balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the viability of the private sector to promote innovation and help internationalize the yuan and capital flows. Although the new regulations impose restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that there will be no significant impact on other equity segments.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A lot of the content of this supervision is actually old content. Why has it suddenly accelerated in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 06-08, the dairy industry in 08-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, the game in 18 years, and the drugs in 18-19 years, most of which have existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid the industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, innovative biopharmaceuticals and other new economic sectors.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform in 2015-2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a copy entitled<b>\"Consumption 2030:\" Service \"First\"</b>The report said that by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo dramatic changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value for GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, the per capita income of Chinese households will double by 2030, while purchasing power will be dominated by the 35-44 and 55-year-olds (baby boomers and their children born in the 1960s). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the present \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will become increasingly dependent on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States as the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that the average household income in China will rise from US$6,000 to US$12,000 by 2030. The important drivers of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continued reforms to attract foreign investment inflows.</p><p>While an ageing population naturally increases consumption rates, China's policymakers are also striving to promote internal economic circulation strategies to unlock China's consumption potential, primarily aimed at addressing the challenges posed to China's exports by a multipolar post-COVID era.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects, and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, it is through reform to eliminate bottlenecks affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and hukou.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect China's consumer market to double in the next decade to reach $12.7 trillion, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of $9.7 trillion.</p><p><b>This means that China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9% over the next decade, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our predictions come true, even when service consumption is included, China will become the world's largest consumer market in a decade.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market over the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption during the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from Western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we observe a steady upward trend. On the one hand, China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy that has lasted for many years has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to take care of their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What tracks are worth voting for?</b></p><p>Investment Framework We Use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to household needs and retirement planning, we expect corresponding changes across industries. To better analyze these changes, we have divided many industries into four broad categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, we will face structural growth, such as: property management, medical services, old-age services, medical insurance, education, domestic and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolution</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>There will be structural changes in the coming years. It is divided into two categories. First, evolving business models, such as integrated platforms, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer) business models, and wider AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(Industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that will be limited in size in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence by 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer), dating services, consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, i.e. Environmental protection, Social responsibility and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Ex-Growth</b>(Those mature industries disrupted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on our outlook for the next decade lays the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Let's further refine this classification system, and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on a company's competitiveness within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect stable and rapid growth in institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, old-age services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart home, and electric vehicles), and life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions, such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms).</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being disrupted. We also expect a slowdown in some fast-growing industries, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five drivers of the size growth and pattern evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by a steady growth in service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will increase steadily. In the next decade, the average annual compound growth rate of China's service consumption is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>The trend may be related to two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to an ageing population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly population. Now, this phenomenon is likely to transform into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of big data and other technologies. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technology, and with the wide application of basic technologies, the threshold of services will continue to be lowered.</p><p><b>(2) Demographic characteristics – the most important generational transitions occur within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy over the past few decades have led to an uneven distribution of the population across age groups; The rapid changes in China's economy over the past few decades have also led to a different distribution of income levels across age groups than in ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our study, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution are 35 to 44 and 55+.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated on household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from a youth-dominated pattern in 2020 to a pattern dominated by household needs and retirement plans in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's Unique Consumption Growth Path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also very much in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to achieve faster, safer, greener and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends that promote consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance household spending power.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread use of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super apps, IoT-based smart homes, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to unlock consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 Five-Year Plans will focus on developing domestic demand-driven sustainable growth in response to a multipolar post-COVID world, and are also striving to promote economic internal circulation strategies to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77 percent, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17 percent.</p><p>At present, China's urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on the supply side and the demand side to eliminate consumption bottlenecks in the next few years. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading the high-speed rail network, and providing convenience for consumption returning to shore. Demand-side measures include increasing social welfare coverage, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influence from consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences between different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy, Chinese consumers and consumers in Western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought a lot of Western elements to the contemporary Chinese lifestyle, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Value family bonds very much and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. There are often long-term goals when spending.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyle between different age groups (such as online platform use and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Antitrust measures against integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on integrated Internet technology platforms. Antitrust policies issued by the government are designed to prevent big technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded oversight of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be modest because China's household balance sheets overall still look healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit, or even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on consumption growth.</p><p><b>(3) The relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively boost consumption by lowering the amount of money people are saving to cope with future uncertainties. Therefore, if the reform in these areas is advanced slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>One big advantage that China has is the low resistance to consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is upgraded, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the public's acceptance of big data applications to some extent, thus reducing the risk in this respect.</p><p><b>(5) Inadvertently caused social problems:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence could lead to worse unemployment problems than anticipated, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some of the problems, but if high technology is applied too quickly, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0\">Alpha</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198913754","content_text":"来源｜MorganStanley\n翻译｜狮刀\n北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。\n01\n新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置\n我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会公平、数据安全，和自主可控。中国对于金融科技、大科技巨头、课后教育、数字货币，以及碳排放的限制升级正是这次逻辑重置的体现。\n经济方面的影响：在新的逻辑范式下，中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。我们看到和社会不平衡，经济可持续性，以及数据和网络安全相关的行业政策风险可能上行，而高端制造、科技自主可控、以及清洁能源有政策利好的支撑。我们仍然严密监控可能的“过度监管”风险。同时也关注可能的反转信号，包括例如，在港科技企业IPO、平台型企业雇员福利问题解决的清晰信号、或者有分量的政策制定者（top policymaker）的讲话。\n投资方面的影响：我们预计这次重置对于中国权益市场的估值和ERP会带来长久和深远的影响，但主要因为其影响在互联网板块，这是中国指数的重要权重，在MSCI China占比大约在40%到50%。这一板块未来收入和利润率的不确定性仍较大。\n挑战和机会：重数据型科技和平台企业，以及房地产企业仍然处于政策压制中。“新经济”板块会继续享受政策支持。\n从增长优先到兼顾公平：长达数十年的消除绝对贫困的努力之后新的目标是社会平等、数据安全，以及自主可控。\n\n\n四个政策关注的主要领域：社会风险、国家风险、金融风险、环境风险\n\n中国历史上每一次监管都带来某个行业底层逻辑的颠覆：采掘、乳制品、酒、跨境投资、游戏、医药、以及这次的互联网：\n\n过去历次监管带来的行业震荡：\n\n可能需要观察的风险点包括：过度监管带来的市场震荡、政策协调不足、政策沟通不足，以及最终可能对生产力的拖累：\n\n可以观察的事件解决路标：\n\n对中国权益指数的影响主要在MSCI China（互联网占比47%）：\n\n02\n怎样理解中国的逻辑重置\n新纪元新目标：我们相信近期的监管收紧反应了中国底层逻辑的改变，并不只是针对互联网巨头。在过去十年中北京的核心目标是保持双位数的收入增速，并消除绝对贫困，给予经济增速以最高权重。可是同时也带来了巨大的社会不均衡，这促使本届政府转向”共同富裕“（”getting rich together---common prosperity“）作为新的发展目标，并将包括社会平衡、供应链可控、数据安全等引入了新的政府KPI。\n过去9个月的政策制定反映了这一目标。 简单来说，我们认为中国正在平衡上升中的企业利润，和下降中的劳动者补偿，让劳动者更多分享到经济体发展的收益，这可能带来某些板块系统性的估值下降。我们认为政策制定者必须面临一个严峻的平衡挑战：如果中国仍希望能成为强大的经济体，就必须保证私营企业部分的活力，来促进创新，以及帮助人民币国际化和资本流动。尽管新的监管对社会责任和数据使用带来限制，但我们仍相信不会对其他权益板块有过大的影响。\n但这并不代表不会有权益市场的震荡：\n\n\n这次监管的很多内容实际都是老内容，为什么在过去9个月中突然加速？我们曾见过这一幕不知道多少次：之前06-08年的采掘行业，08-10年的乳制品行业，13-14年的高端白酒餐饮行业，16-17年的对外投资，18年的游戏，18-19年的药品，大多都存在了1-2年。\n如何在调仓上应对：仍需要暂时回避政策利空的行业板块（民生、安全相关的标的）。更多关注：清洁能源、数据和网络安全、高端制造、半导体供应链可控、创新生物药等新经济板块。\n\n03\n过去的几次政策影响经验\n2012-2016年：反腐败\n\n\n\n\n2015-2018年供给侧改革：\n\n\n\n\n\n\n摩根士丹利发布了一份名为《消费2030：“服务”至上》的报告，报告称，到2030年，中国的消费格局将发生巨大变革。这场变革带来的结果是，服务为GDP创造的价值将超过商品。\n根据摩根士丹利预计，到2030年，中国家庭人均收入将翻一番，而购买力将由35-44岁和55岁以上年龄段（1960年代出生的婴儿潮一代及其子女）主导，此外，到了2030年，消费重点将从现在的“年轻消费者”转向为“家庭需求和退休消费”。\n以“情感健康”和“自我实现”为目标的消费将日益突出，消费者将越来越依赖一个“全自动化”的社会。摩根士丹利认为，中国消费者的消费理念将引领全球。\n那么这场变革的主要驱动力是什么？摩根士丹利认为有五个因素：收入、人口特性、技术、政策和文化，同时，报告也指出了消费发展过程中可能存在的风险点。\n\n以下为报告的部分摘要：\n中国将超越美国成为全球第一大消费国\n在这份报告中，基于家庭收入和政策动向方面的变化，我们更新了我们对中国消费市场的预测。我们认为到2030年中国的家庭平均收入将从6000美元上升到12000美元，增长的重要驱动力为城镇化2.0、经济持续开放以保持中国供应链的国际竞争力、以及持续的改革以吸引外资流入。\n尽管人口老龄化会自然地提升消费率，中国的政策制定者也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力，主要目的是应对一个多极化的后新冠时代给中国出口带来的挑战。\n推进这个战略的主要手段一方面为数字化，以提升电子商务在实物类和服务类两方面的渗透率，支持随时随地的消费；另一方面是通过改革消除影响消费的瓶颈因素，比如物流、进口税，以及户口等方面。\n因此我们预期中国的消费市场规模将在下一个十年中翻倍，达到12.7万亿美元，这比我们2017年做的预测9.7万亿美元高出30%。\n这意味着下一个十年里中国的消费市场规模将保持年化7.9%的增长率，成为全球消费市场规模增长最快的国家之一。\n中国的商品类消费市场规模目前已经超过美国为其全球第一大市场。如果把服务类消费统计在内，当前美国消费市场规模仍显著大于中国。但是如果我们的预测成为现实，即使是把服务类消费统计在内，十年后中国也将成为世界上最大的消费市场。\n下一个十年里中国消费市场变化的一个重要特征是服务类消费超过实物类消费。\n我们现在预期服务类消费的占比将从当前的45%提升至52%，年化增长率为9.2%，超过同期实物类消费6.7%的增长率。\n这一点跟西方国家有所不同。在西方国家，当家庭平均收入达到8000到10000美元时，服务类消费占比的提升就基本上停滞了，但是在中国我们观察到稳定的提升趋势，主要原因一方面是中国独特的人口结构，中国持续多年的一胎化政策极大地加重了壮年人口照看年老父母的负担，因此带来了更多的服务消费的需求。另一方面是基于移动互联网的高度数字化，使获得服务的便利性和快捷性大大增强。\n\n哪些赛道值得投？\n我们使用的投资框架：随着中国的消费市场增长从实物驱动转向服务驱动，而且关注点从年轻人的消费转向家庭需求和退休计划，我们预期各行各业也会有相应的变化。为了更好地分析这些变化，我们把诸多的行业基于他们的产品线和行业变化的驱动力，分为四个大的类别：\n➤ 扩张（服务相关的行业主要落在这个大类）\n在未来几年里将面临结构化的增长，比如：物业管理，医疗服务，养老服务，医疗保险，教育，国内旅游和入境游，旅游购物尤其是免税店，家庭便利服务和本地生活服务。\n➤ 进化（主要由新商业模式驱动）\n未来几年将面临结构性的变化。又分两类。一是进化的商业模式，比如:集成平台，供应链管理和销售渠道管理服务，C2M（Consumer2Manufacturer，即大规模定制化服务）商业模式的落地，更广泛的AI，AR和VR应用。\n➤ 新兴（由技术和服务相结合驱动的行业）\n在2020年还规模有限，但是2030年之前将具备重大商业影响力的行业。比如：情感伴侣，康复医疗服务，服务机器人（商业和消费类）,婚恋服务，对公司的社会责任感（ESG，Environmental，Social，and Corporate Governance，即环保，社会责任，和公司治理）更加注重的消费者。\n➤ 前增长（那些被人口结构变化和技术颠覆的成熟行业）\n比如：低端酒精饮料，基础必需品，传统汽车，传统家电。\n\n以上基于对下一个十年的展望作出的对诸多行业的分类为我们的自上而下的选股方法论打下了基础。\n下面我们把这个分类体系进一步细化，把每个大类里的公司通过四个要素维度来分析，以构成我们针对个股进行研究的框架。这四要素分别是：品牌，渠道，技术和服务。有了这个框架，我们就可以对一家公司在行业内的竞争力进行研究。\n投资结论：\n我们预期机构化的服务（教育，集成平台，医疗保健，养老服务，医疗保险，供应链管理），智慧生活（数字化物业管理，智能家居，和电动汽车），生活体验增强服务/产品（情感伴侣类，比如宠物，玩具，康复医疗服务，服务机器人，和社交平台）会有稳定和快速的增长。\n但是离线的平台比如传统的汽车和家电，将面临被颠覆的命运。我们还预计当前在快速增长的一些行业会面临增速放缓，比如中低端酒精饮料，基本必需品，和传统家庭用品。\n 五大驱动因素和可能的风险点\n下一个十年内中国消费市场规模增长和模式演化的五大驱动因素：\n（1）  收入-- 变成高收入国家的过程中通常伴随着服务类消费的稳定增长。\n根据我们的计算，到2030年，人均可支配收入将从现在的6000美元翻倍到12000美元。从国际经验来看，当人均可支配收入达到8000-10000美元时，服务消费的份额会稳定增长，未来十年中，中国服务消费的年均复合增长率有望达到9.2%，超过商品消费的6.7%。\n该趋势可能与以下两个因素有关：\n1，二胎全面开放之前，中国的计划生育政策导致人口老龄化加剧，增加了高龄人口的护理负担，如今，这一现象很可能会转化成为更多的服务消费需求。\n2，2020年的新冠疫情促使公众对大数据等技术的认知度进一步加深，这一年可能成为技术大规模使用的拐点，而伴随着基础技术的广泛应用，服务的门槛也会不断降低。\n（2）人口特性–最重要的世代转换发生在2-3年内\n过去几十年中国人口政策的变化导致人口在各个年龄层的分布不均匀；过去几十年中国经济的快速变迁也导致收入水平在各个年龄层之间的分布跟普通的经济体不太一样。\n根据我们的研究，到2030年，人口分布最集中的两个年龄段分别是35到44岁和55岁以上。\n而从收入水平的角度看，届时这两个年龄层也恰好是可支配收入最高的两个年龄段。从消费行为角度看，35到44岁人群的主要消费支出集中在家庭需要，而55岁以上则主要是老龄化和退休人群。\n基于这样的分析，我们得出结论，认为中国消费市场将从2020年的以年轻人为主力过渡到2030年的以家庭需求和退休计划为主力的形态。\n（3）技术-中国独特的消费增长路径\n数字化也能从另一个角度有力地支持中国将变成消费驱动的经济体这样一个结论。\n数字化在中国极高的渗透率对toC公司的经营效率以及消费者和销售渠道之间的互动效率都有很大的提高。\n数字化也非常符合中国政府以超级智慧城市为目标的城镇化战略。这个战略希望用借助于5G,云计算，大数据，物联网和人工智能这样一些数字技术实现更快、更安全、更环保、更宜居的城市社区。\n具体地说，我们看到两种不同的促进消费的趋势：\n1.传统经济的数字化：这会整体上提升运营效率并增强家庭的消费能力。\n2.超级智慧城市中新的生活方式：下一代技术的广泛应用可以支持随时随地的消费。这些技术包括：超级APP，基于物联网的智能家居，人工智能和大数据分析。\n（4）政策--政府支持以释放消费潜力\n中国的14个五年计划将专注于发展国内需求驱动的可持续的增长，以应对多极化的后新冠世界，也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力。\n日本在1990年人口开始老龄化的时候，城镇化率已经达到77%，家庭储蓄率处在17%这样一个相对低的水平。\n而中国目前的城镇化率只有61%，家庭储蓄率处在35%的较高水准，看起来可挖掘的消费潜力还非常巨大。\n所以我们预计在未来数年中会看到供给端和需求端都会有各种措施来消除消费瓶颈。供应端的措施包括提升新基建、升级高铁网络、为消费回岸提供便利。需求端的措施则包括提高社会福利的覆盖率、降低收入不平等、以及促进职业培训。\n（5）文化-来自于消费者价值观的影响\n不同国家之间的文化差异可能是导致不同的消费行为的重要原因。买什么，在哪里买，甚至怎么买，中国的消费者和西方国家的消费者，甚至亚洲其他国家的消费者的行为都可能不懂。\n虽然全球化为当代中国的生活方式带来了很多西方元素，但是我们仍然可以看到中国的消费者根植于中国独特的本地文化。\n1.非常看重家庭纽带，愿意为家庭成员提供相当大的金钱上的支持。\n2.消费的时候经常会有长远的目标。\n3.不同年龄层之间生活方式有显著的差异（比如在线平台的使用和外出旅行需求）\n\n可能的风险点：\n（1）针对集成技术平台的反垄断措施：服务相关消费的快速渗透和增长高度依赖于集成化的互联网技术平台。政府发布的反垄断政策旨在防止大型科技公司对市场的垄断，促进健康的市场竞争，但是过于激进的政策也有可能延宕服务相关消费的增长。\n（2）消费信贷的收紧：政策制定者最近升级了对互联网小贷和消费信贷平台的监管，但是我们认为对消费的影响应该不大，因为中国家庭资产负债表整体看上去还很健康。但是如果政策对消费信贷进一步收紧，甚至影响到银行渠道的话，那可能会对消费的增长形成负面影响。\n（3）相对迟缓的社会保障改革推进：我们相信更普遍和均匀的社保覆盖，尤其是在那些关键的都市圈里，会有效地降低人们为应对未来的不确定性而存起来的钱，从而促进消费。因此，在这些方面的改革的推进如果比预期要慢，则会影响消费潜力的释放。\n（4）针对大数据的隐私顾虑：中国拥有的一大优势是在建设智慧城市过程中在消费者数据收集方面面临较低的阻力。如果大众对数据隐私更加关注，或者国际间数据监管协调机制面临升级，则会导致对基于大数据分析的诸多新技术在消费领域应用的限制。不过，在新冠疫情期间个人定位技术和健康码的广泛应用在一定程度上提高了大众对大数据应用的的接受度，因此降低了这方面的风险。\n（5）无意中引发的社会问题：自动化和人工智能的广泛应用可能会导致比预想的要严重的失业问题，尤其是在建筑和低附加值制造领域。当然我们相信职业培训和快速增长的服务可以解决一部分问题，但是如果高科技的应用过快，失业导致的社会摩擦仍然有抑制消费增长的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}