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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2024-10-20
$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-21
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What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?
核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基
What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-19
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Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks
摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美
Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-17
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"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night
香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议
"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-16
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One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions
13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T
One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-14
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CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.
最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。
CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-12
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-10
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Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hires head of digital currency
微软扩展版图的路线逐渐清晰。
Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hires head of digital currency
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-06
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CITIC Securities: Happiness and Worries of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday
核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经
CITIC Securities: Happiness and Worries of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-01
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Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.
农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：
Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.
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14:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213609052","media":"文涛宏观债券研究","summary":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wthgzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">文涛宏观债券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 14:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w\">文涛宏观债券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK1148":"建筑与工程","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","09979":"绿城管理控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213609052","content_text":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基本情况。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。1．1983.3-1984.9：石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。2.1987.1-1989.7：通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。这一时期美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。3.1994.2-1995.2：衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。随后联储加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。这一时期，美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。4.1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机波及下，联储降息应对。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，随之而来的是科网泡沫破裂。5.2004.6-2006.6：2001年，随着股市暴跌引发衰退，美联储大幅降息。此后经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储再次开启加息进程。6.2015.12-2018.12：长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。鹰派程度大超市场预期。本轮加息更像哪一年？供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代有共同之处；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温相似；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需看上述问题边际变化。正文美联储加息和缩表成为今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是影响国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。为此，我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响，为今年走势的判断提供借鉴。系列第一篇，首先简单回顾历次加息的基本情况，包括背景、所面临的经济金融形势及政策考虑。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。上世纪80年代以来，美联储共有6次显著的加息周期，分别是1983-84、1987-89、1993-95、1999-00、2004-06及2015-17。上世纪70-80年代，美国货币政策处于激烈变动期，凯恩斯主义、货币主义、理性预期理论各领风骚，为应对长期的滞涨问题，美联储主席沃尔克执行了坚定的货币紧缩。进入90年代，高通胀的担忧彻底解除，格林斯潘执掌下的美联储货币政策主要基于泰勒规则，对经济周期和通胀进行调节。90年代末至21世纪，全球金融市场不断动荡，历次危机中美联储都积极降息，而其后的加息周期主要是对此前危机宽松政策的撤回。2015年，耶伦领导下的美联储在全球金融危机和大衰退后消退后实施了货币政策正常化。2020-21年，全球货币宽松程度史上前所未见，当前美国面临经济的强劲复苏和通胀连创新高，市场对美联储连续和快速加息的预期强烈。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。由于当下加息周期的复杂性，几乎同时包含了高通胀、供应链断裂、经济下行、股价房价高位等多重因素，上述加息历史具有宝贵参考信息。1. 1983.3-1984.9：原油供给冲击带来的滞胀困局石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。20世纪60-70年代，美元体系不断动荡。伴随着1973-1975年和1979-1982年两次石油危机和两伊战争，全球石油产量缩减，工业原材料价格上涨，商业投资放缓，生产率下降，美国与世界其他国家的贸易平衡恶化。美国通胀持续达两位数而就业不振，陷入长期滞涨的困境。1964年，美国通胀率1%，失业率5%，此后一路上行，到1980年，通货膨胀率接近14.5%，失业率超过7.5% 。70年代，美联储在凯恩斯“相机抉择”的思想指导下，不断在控制通胀和保就业两方面权衡，造成货币政策目标不清晰，控制通胀的努力“走走停停”（stop-go），公众对经济和政府政策的信心不断下降，通胀预期高企导致经济行为发生扭曲。直到通胀和失业率最终都达到令人无法接受的高位。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策。在长达十数年的“滞涨时代”背景下，1979年8月保罗·沃尔克就任美联储主席，决心结束美联储相机抉择、走走停停的政策，将控制通货膨胀作为最重要目标，特别是其解决带来的国际收支平衡问题。沃尔克的政策思路可以分为两阶段，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。1979-1981年，沃尔克遵循货币主义的思想，以降低货币供给量为中介目标，对信贷进行严格控制，导致联邦基金利率大幅波动，在1980年达到20%的高点，并在当年引发自大萧条以来美国最严重的经济衰退，失业率达到近11%的峰值，一直持续到1982年11月。制造业、建筑业和汽车业受到的影响尤为严重。住宅建筑业和汽车制造业年底分别失业22%和24%随着失业率的上升，美联储的政策略微有所放松。但随着1980年下半年经济出现企稳迹象，美联储继续强力收紧货币供给，联邦基金利率再次冲上20%，由于市场预期美联储无法承受失业率上升压力，长期利率仍持续上升，反映了通胀预期的恶化。此时，沃尔克保持了绝对的政策定力，坚定美联储不会让步，保持限制货币和信贷增长的既定路线不变。1982年，美联储重新将目标转向联邦基金利率，并首次开始公布其利率目标，以引导市场预期。但通胀继续走低，到经济衰退结束时，通胀率回落到5%以下。随着时间的推移，美联储对低通胀的承诺赢得了公信力，失业率回落，经济进入了一个持续增长和稳定的时期。随着经济走出衰退，1983年3月-1984年9月，美联储继续实施加息以稳固通胀预期，在1983-1984年间持续加息13次，共加息275基点，此后美国通胀率基本维持在5%以下，标志着大通胀时代结束。2. 1987.1-1989.7：应对通胀上行和美元贬值通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。20世纪80年代中期以后，美国经济进入长达20年的低通胀、高增长的“大缓和”时期（the Great Moderation）。该时期美联储货币政策在政策规则、预期管理和政策效果方面都有所改善。美联储开始更系统地将通胀和产出缺口作为货币政策的主要考虑因素，即“泰勒规则”。当产出高于潜在水平或通胀高于目标，美联储随即采取紧缩货币政策，反之则宽松。“泰勒规则”意味着联邦基金利率增长幅度应超过通胀率增长幅度，因此通胀率上升时，美联储的应对措施更加果断和强硬。美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。1986年底-1987年中，由于里根政府持续的美元贬值以促进贸易的政策，导致美国国内通胀再次快速走高，从低于2%飚升至4%以上，而失业率总体趋势已连续5年稳中有降。1987年初，美联储开始提高利率以对抗通胀，1-9月利率从5.8%升至7.3%。1987年8月，格林斯潘就任美联储主席，10月，美股爆发“黑色星期一”，股市一天内暴跌20%。为了救市，格林斯潘宣布联邦基金利率紧急下调50基点至6.75%，1988年利率继续下降到6.5%。但这场危机是短暂的，到年底股市迅速反弹，经济也随即复苏。美联储继续提高利率以缓解通胀和美元贬值压力，到1989年本轮加息周期结束，共计加息21次344个基点，联邦基金利率升至9.3%。3. 1994.2-1995.2：防经济过热衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。1990-1991，美国经济再度进入衰退。联邦基金目标利率从9%降至1992年3%，并持续维持低位。此后，随着经济改善，失业率持续降低，通胀也保持低位，美联储于1994年初再度开启加息周期。在91年前后的衰退中复苏比较快，GDP季度增长率从负值反弹至4%-5%，10年期国债收益率出现抬头趋势，股市飙升，标普500在1991年至1994年间上涨47%，金融市场出现过热倾向。加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。尽管市场对加息已有广泛预期，但由于通胀率始终维持在3%左右的市场低位，6.5%的失业率也尚未回到衰退前水平，因此1994年的加息周期在加息的时间和幅度方面仍出乎投资者意料。1994年4月，利率从3.50%紧急提高到3.75%。此后，出于对经济过热和通胀上升的担忧，美联储改变了其每次加息25基点的渐进方法，采取了更为激进的方法，每次加息50-75基点，直至1995年2月，联邦基金利率上升到6.00%，共计加息7次300个基点。美联储较市场预期的紧缩幅度更大，速度也更快。利率的超预期上升引发债券市场动荡，被媒体戏称为“债券市场大屠杀”。在随后的9个月里，10年期美国国债利率上升了220基点，抵押贷款利率也随之上升。世界范围内的破产率急剧上升，加州奥兰治县（Orange County）当时是美国历史上最大的市政破产案。墨西哥和阿根廷也走向金融危机。美联储结束加息周期。美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。这一时期，美联储在政策沟通方面有所提升。此前，格林斯潘从未公布任何FOMC会议声明和材料，以保留政策灵活性，不必受此前声明的束缚。90年代，随着理性预期学派在政策制定领域影响扩大，FOMC于1994年2月首次正式官方宣布其政策变动。此后，联储在声明中开始明确利率目标，从而管理通胀预期，并将美联储意外之举造成的破坏降至最低。4. 1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机后的宽松到收紧亚洲金融危机波及，联储降息应对。为应对东南亚金融危机危机、俄罗斯债务违约和长期资本管理公司（LTCM）破产对市场的猛烈冲击，美联储在1998年夏季和初秋将利率从5.5%下调至4.75%。尽管金融市场出现了巨大的波动，但上述事件对实体经济影响不大，经济继续强劲增长。美国经济开始腾飞，工资上涨，进口激增，个人消费大幅增长，CPI超过2%的政策目标，失业率持续降至4%附近。东亚和欧洲经济也显示出复苏的迹象，甚至南美经济也有所改善。互联网经济蓬勃发展，科技股大幅上涨，纳斯达克指数从1997年的740点一路走高，至2000年3月站上5030的高点。联储收回宽松，科网泡沫破裂。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，实际上是收回一年前金融危机最严重时的降息幅度。尽管经济走势良好，但由于市场沟通不足，投资者对加息的预期仍不充分。在这一紧缩周期。美联储加息6次，共175个基点到6.5%，紧随而来的是2001年的科技股泡沫破裂。5. 2004.6-2006.6：房地产降温股市暴跌和恐怖袭击事件促使联储大幅宽松。2000年至2002年间，科技泡沫破灭，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了85%，商业投资急剧收缩。为了防止更严重的衰退，2001年1月3日，美联储主席格林斯潘出人意料地宣布降息0.50%至6%。9·11恐怖袭击前后又分别进行了6次和4次降息，2001年共降息11次，到2003年6月，利率已从6.5%降至1%，并一直保持到2004年6月。经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储开启加息进程。随着利率长期保持低位，房价震荡上升，2004年中较2001年低点上涨52%，标普500指数亦持续反弹，较2002年低点回升37%。引发市场对资产泡沫、房地产泡沫的担忧。这段时期失业率维持在6%以下并持续下降，同时CPI逐渐抬头，震荡走高至2%的目标区间以上，加大了联储加息的决心。市场为2004年至2006年的紧缩周期做好了准备。2004年6月，联储加息25个基点至1.25%，2006年伯南克就任美联储主席，继续紧缩周期，本轮共加息17次，425个基点至5.25%。2007年上半年，美联储意识到次贷危机初现端倪，本轮加息周期结束。6. 2015.12-2018.12：“大衰退”后的货币政策正常化长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。2007年8月，次贷危机促使美联储开始下调联邦基金利率，2008年1月随着股市崩盘，经济衰退风险增加，FOMC紧急降息，开启了9年的全球货币宽松之路。2008年底，美国出台了激进的零利率政策，此后基准利率一直维持在0%-0.25%的水平。随着经济逐渐从危机中走出，美国劳动力市场持续复苏，失业率从09年高点的10%降至5%左右。2015年中，美联储判断就业缺口为每月10万个就业岗位，而当时经济实际每月新增就业岗位超20万，因此美联储判断经济已经实现实质性的复苏。与此同时，通胀水平维持在2%上下区间震荡。同年底，联储开始首次加息，至2018年12月，共加息9次225个基点，联邦基金利率升至2.5%一线。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。2015年正式开启加息初期，联储态度较为谨慎，在2016年12月才进行第二次加息，与首次加息前后时隔一年，大幅低于此前的市场预期。然而，2017-2018年，美联储的加息速度明显加快，耶伦在2017年加息3次，随后鲍威尔上任后进一步加码，2018年全年四次加息，尤其是在美股大跌的2018年底仍然选择了进一步紧缩，鹰派程度大超市场预期。此后，随着美国经济走弱、金融市场波动，本轮加息周期至2019年3季度结束。次贷危机和大衰退促成了美联储在货币政策的市场沟通方面进一步加强。2008年起，伯南克开始在每次FOMC会议后主持召开新闻发布会，并接受电视采访。在本轮加息周期中，货币政策透明度大幅提升，前瞻性指引受到重视，市场预期在一定程度上得到引导。即便如此，由于此前的宽松幅度前所未有，缩减在开始的初期仍引发了全球市场动荡。7、2022年更像哪一年？兼具多种特点供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。本轮加息周期的复杂性较高，目前的宏观背景似乎兼具此前6轮周期中的一些核心特点。例如，供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代极为相似（但目前尚未进入滞胀）；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温如出一辙；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需要看上述问题的边际变化。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094720153,"gmtCreate":1645238748768,"gmtModify":1676534012252,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094720153","repostId":"1154007444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154007444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645225649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154007444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094031421,"gmtCreate":1645018868277,"gmtModify":1676533986856,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094031421","repostId":"1190123173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190123173","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644978386,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190123173?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190123173","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-16 10:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190123173","content_text":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持Top5, 让我们来一探究竟吧！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092278349,"gmtCreate":1644643377576,"gmtModify":1676533950498,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092278349","repostId":"2210821529","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092095589,"gmtCreate":1644481798252,"gmtModify":1676533932094,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092095589","repostId":"2210672645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210672645","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644481416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210672645?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 16:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hires head of digital currency","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210672645","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"微软扩展版图的路线逐渐清晰。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>After laying out the cloud game,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>There's a new move.</p><p>On Monday, Microsoft posted an announcement on its recruitment website for a director of digital currency development, looking for professionals who can help the company expand its territory in the field of digital currency and, most importantly, Web 3.0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b15ca1bec327c8ea587b686abe75c4\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the job posting, Microsoft mentioned that the position is a labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And emerging technology business development teams, need to \"understand the Web 3.0 market\" and will be responsible for \"evaluating potential acquisitions\" and improving \"product usage and increasing adoption\".</p><p>Additional requirements and responsibilities for the position include:</p><p><ul><li>Laying the foundation for supporting and promoting Microsoft's Web 3.0 strategy;</li><li>Advise leadership on key technology and product roadmap considerations;</li><li>Work with engineering teams across the company to understand when existing infrastructure can be leveraged, enhanced, or built;</li><li>Develop a vision, strategy, and roadmap for Microsoft's Web 3.0 collaboration model, including infrastructure and APIs;</li><li>Collaborate cross-functionally with engineering and other cross-functional teams to develop business development builds, purchases, partner maps.</li></ul>The notice also provides a more in-depth description of the role's responsibilities, including people management, customer and partner focus, partnership strategy, negotiations, and more importantly – transaction management – a sign that Microsoft intends to expand its footprint in the crypto finance space through an acquisition-focused strategy.</p><p>Web 3.0 is commonly understood as the decentralized ecology of the current Internet, and is now also sometimes used as a synonym for cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, virtual reality/augmented reality, and the metaverse.</p><p>In fact, for the layout of Web 3.0, Microsoft has started since it developed its cloud business. And the cloud business lived up to expectations and became one of Microsoft's most profitable departments.</p><p>According to Microsoft's quarterly report in October 2021, cloud business has become the biggest thrust for the company's revenue. Intelligent cloud business, including Azure public cloud, enterprise services, GitHub, etc., achieved revenue of 16.98 billion USD, exceeding expectations.</p><p>On the basis of the bottom layer of cloud computing, Microsoft has further expanded into cloud games, and acquired a series of game manufacturers including Blizzard Activision, pointing to the metaverse.</p><p>After laying out the metaverse, Microsoft's involvement in cryptocurrency is one step closer to Web 3.0.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hires head of digital currency</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLayout Web 3.0? Microsoft hires head of digital currency\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 16:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>After laying out the cloud game,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>There's a new move.</p><p>On Monday, Microsoft posted an announcement on its recruitment website for a director of digital currency development, looking for professionals who can help the company expand its territory in the field of digital currency and, most importantly, Web 3.0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b15ca1bec327c8ea587b686abe75c4\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the job posting, Microsoft mentioned that the position is a labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And emerging technology business development teams, need to \"understand the Web 3.0 market\" and will be responsible for \"evaluating potential acquisitions\" and improving \"product usage and increasing adoption\".</p><p>Additional requirements and responsibilities for the position include:</p><p><ul><li>Laying the foundation for supporting and promoting Microsoft's Web 3.0 strategy;</li><li>Advise leadership on key technology and product roadmap considerations;</li><li>Work with engineering teams across the company to understand when existing infrastructure can be leveraged, enhanced, or built;</li><li>Develop a vision, strategy, and roadmap for Microsoft's Web 3.0 collaboration model, including infrastructure and APIs;</li><li>Collaborate cross-functionally with engineering and other cross-functional teams to develop business development builds, purchases, partner maps.</li></ul>The notice also provides a more in-depth description of the role's responsibilities, including people management, customer and partner focus, partnership strategy, negotiations, and more importantly – transaction management – a sign that Microsoft intends to expand its footprint in the crypto finance space through an acquisition-focused strategy.</p><p>Web 3.0 is commonly understood as the decentralized ecology of the current Internet, and is now also sometimes used as a synonym for cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, virtual reality/augmented reality, and the metaverse.</p><p>In fact, for the layout of Web 3.0, Microsoft has started since it developed its cloud business. And the cloud business lived up to expectations and became one of Microsoft's most profitable departments.</p><p>According to Microsoft's quarterly report in October 2021, cloud business has become the biggest thrust for the company's revenue. Intelligent cloud business, including Azure public cloud, enterprise services, GitHub, etc., achieved revenue of 16.98 billion USD, exceeding expectations.</p><p>On the basis of the bottom layer of cloud computing, Microsoft has further expanded into cloud games, and acquired a series of game manufacturers including Blizzard Activision, pointing to the metaverse.</p><p>After laying out the metaverse, Microsoft's involvement in cryptocurrency is one step closer to Web 3.0.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651559\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","MSFT":"微软","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4097":"系统软件"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651559","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210672645","content_text":"继收购动视暴雪布局云游戏之后，微软又有了新动作。本周一，微软在其招聘网站上发布了一则招聘数字货币开发总监的启事，寻找能帮助公司在数字货币领域，以及最重要的Web 3.0领域开疆扩土的专业人士。在招聘启事中，微软提到，这个职位归属于人工智能和新兴技术业务开发团队，需要“了解 Web 3.0 市场”，并且将负责“评估潜在收购”并改善“产品的使用和增加采用率”。该职位的其他要求和职责还包括：为支持和推广微软的 Web 3.0 战略奠定基础；就关键技术和产品路线图考虑向领导层提供建议；与整个公司的工程团队合作，了解何时可以利用、增强或构建现有基础架构；为微软的 Web 3.0 合作模式（包括基础架构和 API）制定愿景、战略和路线图；与工程和其他跨职能团队进行跨职能协作，以开发业务开发构建、购买、合作伙伴版图。启事还对这份职位的职责进行了更深入的描述，包括人员管理、客户和合作伙伴关注、合作战略、谈判、以及更重要的——交易管理——这是微软打算通过以收购为重点的战略扩大其在加密金融领域足迹的迹象。Web 3.0 通常理解为当下互联网的去中心化生态，现在有时也被用作加密货币、区块链技术、虚拟现实/增强现实和元宇宙的同义词。事实上，对于Web3.0的布局，微软从发展其云业务时就已经开始了。而云业务也不负期望，成为了微软最赚钱的部门之一。2021年10月微软季报显示，云业务已成公司营收最大的推力，包括Azure公共云、企业服务、GitHub等在内的智能云业务实现营收169.8亿美元，超出预期。在云计算的底层基础上，微软又进一步向云游戏扩张，收购了包括暴雪动视在内的一系列游戏厂商，剑指元宇宙。在布局元宇宙之后，微软此番涉足加密货币，又朝着Web 3.0更近了一步。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098228791,"gmtCreate":1644153250891,"gmtModify":1676533894612,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098228791","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Happiness and Worries of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday, but the \"mixed blessings\" of liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices are still fluctuating greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector. The global economic cycle under the external shock of this round of epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle, and the swing range of the Fed's tightening expectation in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate earnings and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and the supply interruption of oil-producing countries, the international oil price has risen by 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>— Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 (2022-1-6), the view that oil prices first rose (exceeding US$90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And other corporate financial reports turned the tide, driving Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stocks to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve, which caused the global stock market to fall sharply before the holiday, did not eased significantly. Instead, it was further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and the hawkish tightening expectation of the Bank of Europe and England, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market has improved significantly but is still tight, and inflation in the euro zone is unexpectedly higher. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job openings remains high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the US job market is in short supply and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, in January, the harmonized CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, and far higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core harmonized CPI dropped compared with the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is still relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and Monetary Policy: The British and European central banks are hawking together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to the rising inflation, the Bank of England passed the decision of 25bps in rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at the interest rate meeting in February. After raising the interest rate by 15bps in December last year, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds to officially open the shrinking balance sheet. The degree of hawkish exceeded market expectations. On the ECB side, there was a dramatic shift in attitude due to the record high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed a hawkish style in her speech, and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy has officially begun to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed blessing\" of liquidity indicators indicates that asset price volatility will remain large. The liquidity index of the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveals the characteristics of \"mixed happiness\". The \"joy\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve began to speak to calm the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) The weakening of the the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slowing down unnecessary capital outflow, and freeing up more monetary operation space and time for their domestic monetary policy. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the global liquidity ebb still exists: although asset prices have recently rebounded, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the acceleration of European Central Bank tightening. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector. The global economic cycle under the external shock of this round of epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle, and the swing range of the Fed's tightening expectation in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday, and the main line of market investment focused on energy supply, corporate earnings and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and the supply interruption of oil-producing countries, the international oil price has risen by 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk oil prices. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>— Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 (2022-1-6), the view that oil prices first rose (exceeding US$90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide, driving Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profit factors of U.S. stock companies are difficult to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which sent global stock markets down sharply before the holiday, did not moderate significantly. Instead, tightening expectations were further strengthened by strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations from the European and Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Eurozone Inflation Surprisingly Higher as US Employment Improves Significantly But Still Tight</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States was better than expected, while the inflation level in Europe was unexpectedly higher.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market has recovered steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. In January, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was 467,000, much higher than the market expectation (-400,000~250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate edged back to 4.0% from 3.9% in December, the labor force participation rate improved significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, just 0.5 percentage points off the 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. The requirement that some areas need to show vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have enhanced people's willingness to work in the leisure hotel industry to some extent. Although the change in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared with December 2020 may lead to errors in directly comparing the data of the two months, the overall unexpected performance of employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain and is still on the road of steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job openings remains high, and hourly wages are growing faster than expected, indicating that the U.S. job market is in short supply and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million, while the number of job openings in November was revised up from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, the wage level continues to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages for non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job openings combined with high hourly wage growth shows that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the shortage of supply in the US job market. And the rapid rise in wage prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the harmonized CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core harmonized CPI dropped compared with last month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than the market expectation of 4.4%, and continued to be high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. In terms of sub-items, energy items are the main factor pushing up the HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy items rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the euro zone's core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, down somewhat from the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is still relatively low. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to the exceeding expectations of inflation in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of the wider price increase of goods and services, the high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline of energy prices, it is expected that the inflation in the euro zone may fall back in the second half of this year and may return to the level of around 1.8% by the end of the year. Due to the relatively flat rate of wage growth in the euro zone, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>Global Monetary Policy Towards Tightening as British and European Central Banks Together Hawk</b></p><p>Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals during the Chinese New Year, and global monetary policy is heading towards tightening under high inflation pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike 25pbs at the interest rate meeting in February, and at the same time opened the shrinking balance sheet, which was more hawkish than market expectations. Due to the rising inflation, the Bank of England passed the decision of 25bps in rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at the interest rate meeting in February. After raising the interest rate by 15bps in December last year, it raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced rate hike in two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds to officially open the shrinking balance sheet. The degree of hawkishness exceeds market expectations, reflecting the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed that rate hike be 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released a hawkish signal at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. The ECB took a dramatic shift in attitude as the previous day's January inflation data hit record highs and far exceeded market expectations. Although the statement at the meeting was generally in line with expectations, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech after the meeting. First of all, Lagarde said that the Governing Council of the European Central Bank was unanimously worried that inflation would be high for longer than expected; Second, she stopped sticking to the previously emphasized assertion that \"2022 is unlikely to be rate hike\", saying that \"things have really changed\". Its sudden shift in tone is similar to that of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for the first time saying that \"it is time to give up the word 'temporary'\", or it indicates that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to shift. However, even if the ECB starts a rate hike, the timing of its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, it is necessary to pay further attention to the changes in the subsequent euro zone inflation data.</p><p><b>\"Mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices are still volatile</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity index (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed happiness\". The \"happy\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to speak to calm the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1st, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his tune and said that the Fed's rate hike will not be very radical, and it tends to rate hike three times this year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of rate hike 50bp at a time; Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that monetary policy should be changed step by step. At present, the monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) The periodic weakening of the the US Dollar Index has freed up more operating space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the pound, the weakness of the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for its domestic monetary policy.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the global liquidity ebb still exists: although asset prices have recently rebounded, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the acceleration of European Central Bank tightening. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle, and the swing range of Fed tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Happiness and Worries of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Happiness and Worries of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-06 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday, but the \"mixed blessings\" of liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices are still fluctuating greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector. The global economic cycle under the external shock of this round of epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle, and the swing range of the Fed's tightening expectation in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate earnings and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and the supply interruption of oil-producing countries, the international oil price has risen by 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>— Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 (2022-1-6), the view that oil prices first rose (exceeding US$90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And other corporate financial reports turned the tide, driving Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stocks to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve, which caused the global stock market to fall sharply before the holiday, did not eased significantly. Instead, it was further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and the hawkish tightening expectation of the Bank of Europe and England, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market has improved significantly but is still tight, and inflation in the euro zone is unexpectedly higher. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job openings remains high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the US job market is in short supply and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, in January, the harmonized CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, and far higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core harmonized CPI dropped compared with the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is still relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and Monetary Policy: The British and European central banks are hawking together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to the rising inflation, the Bank of England passed the decision of 25bps in rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at the interest rate meeting in February. After raising the interest rate by 15bps in December last year, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds to officially open the shrinking balance sheet. The degree of hawkish exceeded market expectations. On the ECB side, there was a dramatic shift in attitude due to the record high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed a hawkish style in her speech, and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy has officially begun to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed blessing\" of liquidity indicators indicates that asset price volatility will remain large. The liquidity index of the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveals the characteristics of \"mixed happiness\". The \"joy\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve began to speak to calm the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) The weakening of the the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slowing down unnecessary capital outflow, and freeing up more monetary operation space and time for their domestic monetary policy. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the global liquidity ebb still exists: although asset prices have recently rebounded, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the acceleration of European Central Bank tightening. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector. The global economic cycle under the external shock of this round of epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle, and the swing range of the Fed's tightening expectation in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with those before the holiday, and the main line of market investment focused on energy supply, corporate earnings and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and the supply interruption of oil-producing countries, the international oil price has risen by 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk oil prices. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>— Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 (2022-1-6), the view that oil prices first rose (exceeding US$90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide, driving Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profit factors of U.S. stock companies are difficult to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which sent global stock markets down sharply before the holiday, did not moderate significantly. Instead, tightening expectations were further strengthened by strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations from the European and Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Eurozone Inflation Surprisingly Higher as US Employment Improves Significantly But Still Tight</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States was better than expected, while the inflation level in Europe was unexpectedly higher.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market has recovered steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. In January, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was 467,000, much higher than the market expectation (-400,000~250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate edged back to 4.0% from 3.9% in December, the labor force participation rate improved significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, just 0.5 percentage points off the 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. The requirement that some areas need to show vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have enhanced people's willingness to work in the leisure hotel industry to some extent. Although the change in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared with December 2020 may lead to errors in directly comparing the data of the two months, the overall unexpected performance of employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain and is still on the road of steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job openings remains high, and hourly wages are growing faster than expected, indicating that the U.S. job market is in short supply and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million, while the number of job openings in November was revised up from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, the wage level continues to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages for non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job openings combined with high hourly wage growth shows that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the shortage of supply in the US job market. And the rapid rise in wage prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the harmonized CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core harmonized CPI dropped compared with last month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than the market expectation of 4.4%, and continued to be high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. In terms of sub-items, energy items are the main factor pushing up the HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy items rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the euro zone's core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, down somewhat from the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is still relatively low. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to the exceeding expectations of inflation in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of the wider price increase of goods and services, the high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline of energy prices, it is expected that the inflation in the euro zone may fall back in the second half of this year and may return to the level of around 1.8% by the end of the year. Due to the relatively flat rate of wage growth in the euro zone, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>Global Monetary Policy Towards Tightening as British and European Central Banks Together Hawk</b></p><p>Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals during the Chinese New Year, and global monetary policy is heading towards tightening under high inflation pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike 25pbs at the interest rate meeting in February, and at the same time opened the shrinking balance sheet, which was more hawkish than market expectations. Due to the rising inflation, the Bank of England passed the decision of 25bps in rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at the interest rate meeting in February. After raising the interest rate by 15bps in December last year, it raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced rate hike in two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds to officially open the shrinking balance sheet. The degree of hawkishness exceeds market expectations, reflecting the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed that rate hike be 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released a hawkish signal at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. The ECB took a dramatic shift in attitude as the previous day's January inflation data hit record highs and far exceeded market expectations. Although the statement at the meeting was generally in line with expectations, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech after the meeting. First of all, Lagarde said that the Governing Council of the European Central Bank was unanimously worried that inflation would be high for longer than expected; Second, she stopped sticking to the previously emphasized assertion that \"2022 is unlikely to be rate hike\", saying that \"things have really changed\". Its sudden shift in tone is similar to that of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for the first time saying that \"it is time to give up the word 'temporary'\", or it indicates that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to shift. However, even if the ECB starts a rate hike, the timing of its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, it is necessary to pay further attention to the changes in the subsequent euro zone inflation data.</p><p><b>\"Mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices are still volatile</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity index (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed happiness\". The \"happy\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to speak to calm the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1st, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his tune and said that the Fed's rate hike will not be very radical, and it tends to rate hike three times this year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of rate hike 50bp at a time; Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that monetary policy should be changed step by step. At present, the monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) The periodic weakening of the the US Dollar Index has freed up more operating space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the pound, the weakness of the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for its domestic monetary policy.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the global liquidity ebb still exists: although asset prices have recently rebounded, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the acceleration of European Central Bank tightening. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for the high valuation sector.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this epidemic is not comparable to the previous cycle. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle, and the swing range of Fed tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, we still suggest to focus on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to land in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","06030":"中信证券","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments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17:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSCCI":"红筹指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}