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Mrwyy

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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2022-02-25
  Keyiii
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-04-03
  Keyi
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-03-18
  Jana
  Goldman Sachs admits its mistake: It misjudged the Federal Reserve.
  美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整
  Goldman Sachs admits its mistake: It misjudged the Federal Reserve.
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-03-18
  Keyi
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-03-03
  Niu
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-03-01
  Keyi
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- MrwyyMrwyy
  ·2021-03-01
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10:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs admits its mistake: It misjudged the Federal Reserve.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120131537","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整","content":"<p>Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its monetary policy meeting decision this week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>He admitted that he misjudged the Federal Reserve.</p><p>The bank had previously stated in its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy that it expected the median expectation for Federal Funds rate to rise by 2023, which caused market panic. If the Federal Reserve sends a short-term rate hike signal, it will trigger a \"repricing\" of the entire interest rate system, which will inevitably affect risky assets.<b>However, it has now been proven that the Federal Reserve's median expectation remains unchanged.</b></p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's forecast, the median expectation for long-term Federal Funds rate is 2.5%, compared to 2.5% expected in December last year;<b>From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the median expectation for Federal Funds rate was 0.1%, the same as the expectation in December last year.</b></p><p>In its report, Goldman Sachs admitted that it had previously misjudged the Federal Reserve and attributed this to some...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>The factor is that \"some members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the inflation threshold is higher than 2.1%\". In other words, when the Federal Reserve tapers its bond purchases or considers rate hike, the economy is truly overheating.</p><p>Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022, with Federal Funds rate remaining unchanged until the first half of 2024.</p><p>In a recently released report, Goldman Sachs analyst Hatzius stated the following views:</p><p>1. Members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and to maintain the current policy outlook and asset purchase policy. The meeting statement continued to reiterate the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current economic situation, but this time it acknowledged that the pace of recovery has \"recently accelerated\" after a previous slowdown.</p><p>The meeting statement also removed the wording that falling oil prices would \"curb\" inflation, and more clearly stated that \"inflation will continue to be below 2%.\" Meanwhile, the FOMC increased the single counterparty limit for overnight reverse repurchase facilities (RRP) from $30 billion per day to $80 billion.</p><p>2.<b>The median forecast for the policy interest rate in the Economic Forecast Summary remained unchanged, contrary to our rate hike expectations. However, FOMC participants expressed a different view.</b>，<b>Of the seven participants expected to visit rate hike at least once by the end of 2023 (previously there were five, while our bank expects 11), six are expected to visit rate hike multiple times. In addition, four participants are expected to be in rate hike at the end of 2022 (previously only one, while our bank expects two).</b>The medium- to long-term forecast for Federal Funds rate remained unchanged at 2.5%, as expected.</p><p>3. The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP forecast for this year, possibly reflecting the impact of the U.S. economic relief bill and improvements in public health. The expected GDP growth rate for 2021 has been raised by 2.3 percentage points (pp) to 6.5% (the expected growth rates for 2022 and 2023 remain largely unchanged, being raised by 0.1 pp and lowered by 0.2 pp respectively).</p><p><b>Although the core inflation rate (PCE) for 2021 has been significantly revised upward by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%, the remaining expectations show no signs of an overheated economy in the medium term.</b>The unemployment rate forecast for 2023 has been lowered by only 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, while the long-term unemployment rate has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%. The 2023 PCE inflation forecast was raised by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%, and only one participant expected it to exceed 2.2%.</p><p>Finally, regarding Goldman Sachs' revised forecast for the Fed's policy response, Hatzius wrote: \"The March forecast indicates that some FOMC members have set an inflation threshold higher than 2.1%. We still expect the Fed to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022, with Federal Funds rate remaining unchanged until the first half of 2024.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs admits its mistake: It misjudged the Federal Reserve.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs admits its mistake: It misjudged the Federal Reserve.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its monetary policy meeting decision this week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>He admitted that he misjudged the Federal Reserve.</p><p>The bank had previously stated in its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy that it expected the median expectation for Federal Funds rate to rise by 2023, which caused market panic. If the Federal Reserve sends a short-term rate hike signal, it will trigger a \"repricing\" of the entire interest rate system, which will inevitably affect risky assets.<b>However, it has now been proven that the Federal Reserve's median expectation remains unchanged.</b></p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's forecast, the median expectation for long-term Federal Funds rate is 2.5%, compared to 2.5% expected in December last year;<b>From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the median expectation for Federal Funds rate was 0.1%, the same as the expectation in December last year.</b></p><p>In its report, Goldman Sachs admitted that it had previously misjudged the Federal Reserve and attributed this to some...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>The factor is that \"some members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the inflation threshold is higher than 2.1%\". In other words, when the Federal Reserve tapers its bond purchases or considers rate hike, the economy is truly overheating.</p><p>Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022, with Federal Funds rate remaining unchanged until the first half of 2024.</p><p>In a recently released report, Goldman Sachs analyst Hatzius stated the following views:</p><p>1. Members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and to maintain the current policy outlook and asset purchase policy. The meeting statement continued to reiterate the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current economic situation, but this time it acknowledged that the pace of recovery has \"recently accelerated\" after a previous slowdown.</p><p>The meeting statement also removed the wording that falling oil prices would \"curb\" inflation, and more clearly stated that \"inflation will continue to be below 2%.\" Meanwhile, the FOMC increased the single counterparty limit for overnight reverse repurchase facilities (RRP) from $30 billion per day to $80 billion.</p><p>2.<b>The median forecast for the policy interest rate in the Economic Forecast Summary remained unchanged, contrary to our rate hike expectations. However, FOMC participants expressed a different view.</b>，<b>Of the seven participants expected to visit rate hike at least once by the end of 2023 (previously there were five, while our bank expects 11), six are expected to visit rate hike multiple times. In addition, four participants are expected to be in rate hike at the end of 2022 (previously only one, while our bank expects two).</b>The medium- to long-term forecast for Federal Funds rate remained unchanged at 2.5%, as expected.</p><p>3. The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP forecast for this year, possibly reflecting the impact of the U.S. economic relief bill and improvements in public health. The expected GDP growth rate for 2021 has been raised by 2.3 percentage points (pp) to 6.5% (the expected growth rates for 2022 and 2023 remain largely unchanged, being raised by 0.1 pp and lowered by 0.2 pp respectively).</p><p><b>Although the core inflation rate (PCE) for 2021 has been significantly revised upward by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%, the remaining expectations show no signs of an overheated economy in the medium term.</b>The unemployment rate forecast for 2023 has been lowered by only 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, while the long-term unemployment rate has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%. The 2023 PCE inflation forecast was raised by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%, and only one participant expected it to exceed 2.2%.</p><p>Finally, regarding Goldman Sachs' revised forecast for the Fed's policy response, Hatzius wrote: \"The March forecast indicates that some FOMC members have set an inflation threshold higher than 2.1%. We still expect the Fed to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022, with Federal Funds rate remaining unchanged until the first half of 2024.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624145\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","GS":"高盛","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624145","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120131537","content_text":"美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整个利率体系的“重新定价”，势必影响风险资产。但如今证明，美联储这一预期中值继续保持不变。根据美联储预测，长期联邦基金利率预期中值为2.5%，去年12月预期为2.5%；2021年底到2023年底，联邦基金利率预期中值均为0.1%，与去年12月预期持平。高盛在报告中承认自己此前错估了美联储，并将此归咎于一些新生因素，即“一些联邦公开市场委员会成员认为通胀门槛要高于2.1%”。换句话说，当美联储缩减购债规模或考虑加息时，经济就是真的过热了。高盛仍然预计，美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，联邦基金利率将保持不变，直到2024年上半年。最新发布的报告中，高盛分析师Hatzius陈述了以下观点:1. 联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，并维持当前的政策前景特征和资产购买政策。本次会议声明继续重申新冠疫情对当前经济形势的严重影响，但相较之前，这次它承认了复苏步伐在此前放缓后“最近有所加快”。会议声明中也删除了关于油价下跌“抑制”通货膨胀的措辞，更明确地表述为“通货膨胀继续低于2%”。同时，FOMC将隔夜逆回购工具（RRP）单个对手限额从单日300亿美元提高至800亿美元。2. 《经济预测摘要》中对政策利率的预测中值保持不变，与我们加息的预期相左。然而，FOMC参会者表达了不同的观点，预计到2023年底至少加息一次的7名参会者中（此前是5人，而我行预计为11人），有6名预计会多次加息。此外，4名参会者预计会在2022年底加息（此前仅1人，而我行预计为2人）。联邦基金利率的中长期预测中值如预期一样维持在2.5%不变。3.美联储大幅上调了今年GDP预期，可能反映了美国经济救济法案的影响和公共卫生状况的改善。2021年GDP预期增速上调2.3个百分点（pp）至6.5%（2022年和2023年预期增速变化不大，分别较此前上调0.1pp和下调0.2pp)。虽然2021年的核心通货膨胀率（PCE）大幅上调0.4pp至2.2%，但其余预期并未显示出中期经济过热的迹象：到2023年的失业率预期仅下调0.2pp至3.5%，长期失业率下调0.1pp至4.0%；2023年PCE通胀预期上调0.1pp至2.1%，且只有一名参会者预计会超过2.2%。最后，就高盛修正后的美联储政策反应预期而言，Hatzius写道：“3月份的预测表明，一些FOMC成员设定的通胀门槛高于2.1%。我们仍然预计，美联储将从2022年初开始缩减购债规模，联邦基金利率将保持不变，直到2024年上半年。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"GS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324772891,"gmtCreate":1616034979313,"gmtModify":1704790020639,"author":{"id":"3561886000100164","authorId":"3561886000100164","name":"Mrwyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ce878536f012f665bfed5bad723d18","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561886000100164","idStr":"3561886000100164"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keyi","listText":"Keyi","text":"Keyi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324772891","repostId":"2120139461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365787079,"gmtCreate":1614780820191,"gmtModify":1704775134329,"author":{"id":"3561886000100164","authorId":"3561886000100164","name":"Mrwyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ce878536f012f665bfed5bad723d18","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561886000100164","idStr":"3561886000100164"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Niu","listText":"Niu","text":"Niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365787079","repostId":"1100029907","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362176436,"gmtCreate":1614610278625,"gmtModify":1704773053189,"author":{"id":"3561886000100164","authorId":"3561886000100164","name":"Mrwyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ce878536f012f665bfed5bad723d18","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561886000100164","idStr":"3561886000100164"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keyi","listText":"Keyi","text":"Keyi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362176436","repostId":"1159707026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362176372,"gmtCreate":1614610251096,"gmtModify":1704773052376,"author":{"id":"3561886000100164","authorId":"3561886000100164","name":"Mrwyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ce878536f012f665bfed5bad723d18","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561886000100164","idStr":"3561886000100164"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Niu","listText":"Niu","text":"Niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362176372","repostId":"1119150210","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}