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Futre
Futre
·
2023-03-14
$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$
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Futre
Futre
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2023-03-11
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-03-19
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StoneCo, the Brazilian "Alipay" company, rose more than 40% at one point during trading.
3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。
StoneCo, the Brazilian "Alipay" company, rose more than 40% at one point during trading.
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Futre
Futre
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2022-03-18
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With seven rate hike this year, can the Federal Reserve achieve that?
部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201
With seven rate hike this year, can the Federal Reserve achieve that?
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Futre
Futre
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2022-03-13
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Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?
下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待
Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-02-02
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Hong Kong Stock Strategy for February: Improved risk appetite is expected, focusing on a "mean reversion" trend.
1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货
Hong Kong Stock Strategy for February: Improved risk appetite is expected, focusing on a "mean reversion" trend.
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-01-27
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China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.
1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。
China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.
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Futre
Futre
·
2021-09-02
keep going up
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Futre
Futre
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2021-07-26
Thanks
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Futre
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2021-07-11
Keep waiting
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23:13","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"StoneCo, the Brazilian \"Alipay\" company, rose more than 40% at one point during trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169147645","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th - Brazil's Alipay<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>The stock rose by more than 40% at one point during trading, marking the company's largest intraday gain since its US IPO in 2018. StoneCo is also owned by Warren Buffett, the \"Oracle of Omaha\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>StoneCo, the Brazilian \"Alipay\" company, rose more than 40% at one point during trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStoneCo, the Brazilian \"Alipay\" company, rose more than 40% at one point during trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-18 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th - Brazil's Alipay<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>The stock rose by more than 40% at one point during trading, marking the company's largest intraday gain since its US IPO in 2018. StoneCo is also owned by Warren Buffett, the \"Oracle of Omaha\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","STNE":"StoneCo","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4558":"双十一","BK1586":"云计算","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169147645","content_text":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"STNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035167256,"gmtCreate":1647553642560,"gmtModify":1676534242366,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035167256","repostId":"1181924326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181924326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647506263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181924326?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With seven rate hike this year, can the Federal Reserve achieve that?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181924326","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists have expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's expectations of seven rate hike, believing that whether they will actually take action is an unresolved question. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike program could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts indicate that Federal Reserve officials expect six more rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike movement, but it also raises a question:<b>Can the Federal Reserve succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>\"The Federal Reserve is too aggressive.\"</b></p><p>Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve may not act as expected, as this could harm the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said that even before the meeting, the bond market had already digested seven rate hike, but many economists had predicted that the Federal Reserve would only rate hike five or six times.</p><p>This has largely been digested, but the bigger question facing the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists have not explicitly predicted a recession, they do see slowing economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military operations. The Ukraine crisis has also exacerbated inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, and the conflict and sanctions have raised doubts about the supply of oil, wheat, and other key exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, clearly stated:<b>\"I think the Fed is too aggressive in this regard.\"</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But one thing is certain: the Federal Reserve sent a very strong message. ... I still doubt there will be that many rate hike.</p><p>Economists had expected the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish or aggressive stance during its first rate hike. Many people once believed that the Federal Reserve's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed that inflation was temporary, and this view has persisted for too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Federal Reserve may beat rate hike a few times, but it should reconsider rate hike’s path and economic condition in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Over time, some of the supply chain pressures brought about by the pandemic may subside.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is that they're sending the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually took action is an open question.</b>Data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and fall to 2.6% next year after rate hike. They also predict that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and remain at this level.</p><p>Matus believes: \"Many of their predictions are meaningless... there are some logical flaws.\"</p><p>He pointed out that,<b>One loophole is that if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates at the expected pace, it will not be able to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>\"They are serious.\"</p><p>But others do expect the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Street figures predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They're serious. They are really far behind the curve in terms of inflation. Those who believe they cannot conduct seven rate hike will face a severe blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes the market should believe the Federal Reserve:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to persist for longer, and that this is not just a problem for Ukraine. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the Federal Reserve's rate hike outlook. They did this for a reason, not just someone at the Federal Reserve.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Federal Reserve, even the most dovish Fed officials are no exception.</b>Swonk stated that the Federal Reserve's forecasts for the unemployment rate may be unreasonable, but the Fed does want to cool inflation.</p><p>There are risks if Federal Reserve officials act as expected. She said:<b>“When I simulated seven rate hike scenarios, which is my prediction, I thought the average economic growth in the second half of the year would stop at 1%. This was a semi-hard landing.”</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With seven rate hike this year, can the Federal Reserve achieve that?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith seven rate hike this year, can the Federal Reserve achieve that?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists have expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's expectations of seven rate hike, believing that whether they will actually take action is an unresolved question. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike program could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts indicate that Federal Reserve officials expect six more rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike movement, but it also raises a question:<b>Can the Federal Reserve succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>\"The Federal Reserve is too aggressive.\"</b></p><p>Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve may not act as expected, as this could harm the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said that even before the meeting, the bond market had already digested seven rate hike, but many economists had predicted that the Federal Reserve would only rate hike five or six times.</p><p>This has largely been digested, but the bigger question facing the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists have not explicitly predicted a recession, they do see slowing economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military operations. The Ukraine crisis has also exacerbated inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, and the conflict and sanctions have raised doubts about the supply of oil, wheat, and other key exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, clearly stated:<b>\"I think the Fed is too aggressive in this regard.\"</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But one thing is certain: the Federal Reserve sent a very strong message. ... I still doubt there will be that many rate hike.</p><p>Economists had expected the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish or aggressive stance during its first rate hike. Many people once believed that the Federal Reserve's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed that inflation was temporary, and this view has persisted for too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Federal Reserve may beat rate hike a few times, but it should reconsider rate hike’s path and economic condition in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Over time, some of the supply chain pressures brought about by the pandemic may subside.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is that they're sending the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually took action is an open question.</b>Data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and fall to 2.6% next year after rate hike. They also predict that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and remain at this level.</p><p>Matus believes: \"Many of their predictions are meaningless... there are some logical flaws.\"</p><p>He pointed out that,<b>One loophole is that if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates at the expected pace, it will not be able to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>\"They are serious.\"</p><p>But others do expect the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Street figures predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They're serious. They are really far behind the curve in terms of inflation. Those who believe they cannot conduct seven rate hike will face a severe blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes the market should believe the Federal Reserve:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to persist for longer, and that this is not just a problem for Ukraine. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the Federal Reserve's rate hike outlook. They did this for a reason, not just someone at the Federal Reserve.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Federal Reserve, even the most dovish Fed officials are no exception.</b>Swonk stated that the Federal Reserve's forecasts for the unemployment rate may be unreasonable, but the Fed does want to cool inflation.</p><p>There are risks if Federal Reserve officials act as expected. She said:<b>“When I simulated seven rate hike scenarios, which is my prediction, I thought the average economic growth in the second half of the year would stop at 1%. This was a semi-hard landing.”</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181924326","content_text":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。与此同时，其预测显示，美联储官员预计今年将再加息6次，明年将加息3次。这是一场激进的加息运动，但也引出了一个问题：美联储能否在不严重损害经济的情况下取得成功？“美联储过于激进了”一些经济学家认为，美联储可能不会按预期行事，因为这可能会损害经济。据CNBC报道，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师James Paulsen表示，甚至在会议之前，债券市场就已经消化了7次加息，但许多经济学家曾预计，美联储只会加息5到6次：这在很大程度上已经被消化，但市场面临的更大问题是，我们是否会看到经济衰退。虽然经济学家没有明确预测经济会衰退，但他们确实看到经济增长放缓，而且自从俄罗斯的军事行动以来，前景变得更加不明朗。乌克兰危机也加剧了通胀，因为俄罗斯是主要的大宗商品生产国，而冲突和制裁引发了人们对石油、小麦和其他主要出口产品供应的怀疑。道富环球顾问首席分析师Simona Mocuta明确表示：“我认为美联储在这方面过于激进了。经济如何发展是高度不确定的。它们可能不会实现。但可以肯定的是，美联储传递了一个非常强烈的信息. ...我仍然怀疑是否会有这么多的加息次数。”经济学家们曾预计，美联储在首次加息时，会表现出鹰派或激进的态度。许多人曾认为美联储的决策滞后，因为美联储最初认为通胀是暂时的，而这种观点已经持续了太久。Mocuta表示，美联储可能会先加息几次，但在第三季度时应重新考虑加息的路径和经济状况。如果俄乌冲突有所改善，通胀和供应链方面的一些压力将会缓解。随着时间的推移，疫情带来的一些供应链压力也可能消退。大都会投资管理公司首席市场策略师Drew Matus表示：我想说的是，他们在发出他们需要发出的信号，但他们是否真的采取行动，这是一个悬而未决的问题。数据显示，美国2月份CPI跃升至7.9%的40年新高，预计3月份还会进一步上升。美联储预计，今年的核心通胀率将为4.1%，加息后明年将降至2.6%。他们还预测今年GDP将增长4%，到2023年将降至2.2%。预计失业率将降至3.5%，并将维持在这一水平。Matus认为：“他们的很多预测都是没有意义的...在逻辑上有一些漏洞。”他指出，其中一个漏洞是，如果美联储真的按照预期的速度升息，将无法实现这一经济预测。“他们是认真的”但其他人确实预计美联储会继续加息，一些华尔街人士预测今年将加息7次。美国银行美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：他们是认真的。他们在通胀方面真的远远落后于曲线。那些认为他们不能进行7次加息的人，将面临严重的打击。Grant Thornton的首席经济学家Diane Swonk认为，市场应该相信美联储的话：我们不能冒着滞胀的风险。他们承认，他们现在预计通胀会持续更长时间，而且这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题。看到市场的反应，他们显然不相信。这是美联储加息前景的重大转变。他们这么做是有原因的，不仅仅是美联储的某个人。这是整个美联储的系统性举措，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员也不例外。Swonk表示，美联储对失业率的预测可能不合理，但美联储确实希望给通胀降温。如果美联储官员按照预期的行动，就存在风险。她说：“当我模拟7次加息的情景时，也就是我的预测，我认为经济在下半年的平均增长将止步于1%。这是一次半硬着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036275094,"gmtCreate":1647134817837,"gmtModify":1676534196961,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036275094","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off a rate hike. \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side,\" said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower. \"We'll see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to be finalized, but shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated that he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand, and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear forecast for expected policy action.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 7.9% in February, a 40-year high and slightly higher than the expected 7.8% for this year. The CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong, high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control. That's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Federal Reserve to make “good progress” on its plans to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize these plans at its meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>'The key is that interest rate expectations have already fluctuated significantly, and this volatility is likely to continue as data comes out, which could exacerbate volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve,' said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of this year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply due to expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, while the rise in longer-term yields has been less dramatic.</p><p>The yield curve itself is considered an important indicator. An inverted curve, especially when the yield on 2-year or shorter US Treasury bonds is higher than the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, has always been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>Some analysts say this has not yet happened, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies could lead to a recession. Others offered a more moderate explanation: the flattening of interest rates reflected market expectations that the Federal Reserve's quick response would help curb inflation without raising interest rates to unbelievable levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>Will the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike boost the recently volatile global markets?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the short term. Unlike governments that implemented tax cuts and increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also harm its domestic economy. He also fears that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades could trigger another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from soaring energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. With bond yields likely to rise slightly as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, he said global stock markets have not yet bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>However, looking at 12 months, he expects global stock markets, especially the US stock market, to rise. He said the U.S. stock market has a long lifespan of 30 years, which means the market valuation should be U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds. He stated, \"Rising inflation in the short term, coupled with sanctions, will severely damage demand, at which point declining bond yields will boost U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! Will the Federal Reserve's decision next week reverse risk sentiment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will see the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off a rate hike. \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side,\" said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower. \"We'll see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to be finalized, but shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated that he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand, and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear forecast for expected policy action.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 7.9% in February, a 40-year high and slightly higher than the expected 7.8% for this year. The CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong, high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control. That's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Federal Reserve to make “good progress” on its plans to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize these plans at its meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>'The key is that interest rate expectations have already fluctuated significantly, and this volatility is likely to continue as data comes out, which could exacerbate volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve,' said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of this year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply due to expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, while the rise in longer-term yields has been less dramatic.</p><p>The yield curve itself is considered an important indicator. An inverted curve, especially when the yield on 2-year or shorter US Treasury bonds is higher than the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, has always been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>Some analysts say this has not yet happened, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies could lead to a recession. Others offered a more moderate explanation: the flattening of interest rates reflected market expectations that the Federal Reserve's quick response would help curb inflation without raising interest rates to unbelievable levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>Will the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike boost the recently volatile global markets?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the short term. Unlike governments that implemented tax cuts and increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also harm its domestic economy. He also fears that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades could trigger another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from soaring energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. With bond yields likely to rise slightly as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, he said global stock markets have not yet bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>However, looking at 12 months, he expects global stock markets, especially the US stock market, to rise. He said the U.S. stock market has a long lifespan of 30 years, which means the market valuation should be U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds. He stated, \"Rising inflation in the short term, coupled with sanctions, will severely damage demand, at which point declining bond yields will boost U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091052984,"gmtCreate":1643752599452,"gmtModify":1676533850624,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"💰","listText":"💰","text":"💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091052984","repostId":"1109587984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109587984","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1643727865,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109587984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 23:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong Stock Strategy for February: Improved risk appetite is expected, focusing on a \"mean reversion\" trend.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109587984","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1 Viewpoint Review: January Strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>The January 1st report, \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears,\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappeared in January 2022, and the internal and external environment provided a window of opportunity for a rebound:</b>With domestic policies to stabilize the economy taking effect, monetary policy is expected to be further eased in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks is improving marginally.</p><p><b>A report published on January 21, titled \"Why Did Hong Kong Stocks Surge Due to Significant Fluctuations in US Stocks?\", pointed out:</b>The impact of the US \"recession\" on the Hong Kong stock market, a \"global valuation haven,\" is currently limited, and it is gradually becoming less sensitive. Hong Kong stocks are seeing a dawn amid China's policy of \"stabilizing growth and easing monetary policy.\"</p><p><b>A report published on January 25, titled \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market,\" predicts that US stocks are likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond yields, market rebound shocks, and the January FOMC meeting on US stocks has come to an end. The performance of heavyweight US stocks and potential share buybacks will determine whether US stocks can experience a decent rebound in the future. Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? In addition, looking ahead to the medium term, the US stock market has not yet reached its mid-term bottom.</p><p><b>1.2 January Market Review: In the first half of the month, heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; Later in the month, the market corrected, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.7% for the month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng Government Index rose 1.4%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In terms of sectors, energy, telecommunications, and conglomerates led the gains, while healthcare, consumer discretionaries, and industry led the declines.</p><p><b>2. Hong Kong Stock Outlook: Risk appetite is expected to improve in February, but overseas risks will continue to disrupt the market in the medium term.</b></p><p><b>2.1 Overseas Forecast: After US stocks bottom out in the short term, February will be a rebound window; However, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and the mid-term bottom of US stocks has not yet arrived.</b></p><p><b>2.1.1 In the short term, US stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to improving risk appetite for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>US stocks met expectations, confirming a short-term bottom. US long-term Treasury yields fell; The VIX closed at 27.66 on 0128, a significant drop from its intraday high of 38.94 on 0124. The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent rebound in US stocks depends on fundamental expectations. Can US stocks experience a decent rebound in the future? Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? The \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of US heavyweight stocks and subsequent share buybacks. Apple's latest better-than-expected quarterly report spurred a rebound in US stocks. Looking ahead, we should focus on 0201 Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, and 0203.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The focus was on the company's performance, and the subsequent share buybacks and executive shareholding increases.</p><p>February coincides with the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. Geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations starting in February, which will then temporarily ease concerns about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks.</p><p><b>2.1.2 In the medium term, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and US stocks still face significant volatility risks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, leading to a difficult path for Hong Kong stocks to rebound after a sharp decline.</b></p><p>First, long-term US Treasury yields were likely to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after a pullback in February. As a major buying force in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's TAPER will end in March as the tide of Fed bond purchases rapidly subsides. Given the high inflation in the first half of the year, and following the first rate hike in March, discussions on the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We believe that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond in Treasury Bond is expected to break through 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, strong rate hike expectations remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of December 28, 2022, the Federal Funds rate futures market had anticipated more than one Fed rate hike in March (each time 25 basis points). Given the persistently high pressure on global supply chains, high inflation in the United States is likely to remain sticky in the first half of the year and is unlikely to decline significantly. It cannot be ruled out that the market will remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p>Third, given the impact of the global pandemic on global supply chains and the aftereffects of the \"massive easing\" policies of the previous two years, the risk of high inflation overseas and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2 China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Policies are \"self-centered and stability-oriented,\" and further policy easing is expected.</b></p><p>Under the principle of stabilizing growth, further easing of monetary policy is still expected. This will, on the one hand, avoid systemic credit risks in sectors such as real estate, and on the other hand, help stabilize expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further monetary easing, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to gain momentum after the Spring Festival.</p><p><b>2.3 Improved expectations for policy and fundamentals in heavyweight sectors provide support for the bottoming out area of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>Policies to stabilize growth are expected to be further strengthened, and related sectors in Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) Improved prosperity in traditional industries such as construction and building materials, leading to a revaluation of undervalued Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises; 2) The high prosperity of new energy stocks such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continued, but the market performance diverged; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under \"recessionary easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be reassessed.</p><p>China's real estate policies have improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for the real estate market has been continuously improving, moving towards a virtuous cycle: the LPR rate has been lowered; Some cities have relaxed their regulations on pre-sale funds; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The conference emphasized the need to place risk prevention in a more prominent position, prevent and resolve risks in the housing and urban-rural development sector, better stimulate enterprise vitality, stabilize growth, and fully unleash residents' housing demand.</p><p>Internet industry policies have improved marginally. In 2022, the direction of internet policy shifted from \"preventing disorderly capital expansion\" to \"developing in a regulated manner.\"<b>On January 28, the Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of internet companies. At the meeting, relevant officials emphasized that.</b>\"Currently, the overall situation and development trend of my country's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet companies have broad development prospects and great potential. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence. The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in my country's Internet field is an objective requirement and an inevitable trend. This provides a strong guarantee for Internet companies to strengthen management and standardize operation. We must view this correctly and actively adapt.\"</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from expectations of rate hike in the UK and the US, and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the wave of revaluation of central state-owned enterprises is still in full swing. 1) In 2021, the profit growth of central state-owned enterprises reached the best level in history, with net profit increasing by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) With the implementation of domestic policies to stabilize the economy in 2022, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will bear the main task of stabilizing growth. 3) 2022 is the final year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform, and the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: In the short term, stay half sober and half drunk, defensive and counter-attacking; Accumulating small wins in the mid-term to turn them into big wins: select individual stocks.</b></p><p><b>3.1 The investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, carefully select individual stocks, do a good job of defense and counter-attack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium to long term, the overall framework of Hong Kong stocks being simultaneously influenced by overseas liquidity, sentiment, and Chinese fundamentals is unlikely to change. Given the pressure on the Chinese economy in the first half of the year, the continued rate hike in the United States, and the basic assessment that the mid-term correction of US stocks is not yet complete and will fluctuate throughout the year, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs to be even more defensive and counter-attacking. Only by focusing on value and carefully selecting individual stocks can we survive in the cracks, maximize benefits and minimize harms, and accumulate small victories into big ones.</p><p><b>3.2 Investment Directions for the February Rebound: Based on improved fundamental expectations, focus on a \"mean reversion\" trend:</b></p><p>The rebound and divergence of leading internet companies: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to make good trades in the short term and not to linger. With the internet industry policy environment \"developing in a standardized manner\" showing marginal improvement, it is expected to rebound in the short term along with US technology stocks. However, in the long run, the overall logic of the internet has been overturned, shifting from the past \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, with US monetary policy tightening and US stocks yet to reach a mid-term bottom, the rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector in the first half of the year still requires repeated trading and hedging.</p><p>Revaluation of state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and Hong Kong stocks: 1) Opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"loose monetary policy and loose credit\" in the first quarter. Pay attention to the valuation revaluation of high-dividend stocks in finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" stocks. 2) State-owned enterprise reform, especially opportunities for state-owned enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions, pay attention to opportunities in railways, power, real estate, securities firms and other sectors. 3) There are opportunities for market conditions to improve; pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks will continue to be revalued, benefiting from expectations of rate hike in Europe and the United States.</p><p>Opportunities for rebounds in sectors affected by the pandemic, including logistics, catering, and tourism.</p><p>High-performing stocks in the home appliances and electrical tools sectors exported to Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on a medium- to long-term perspective, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Seeking opportunities for Hong Kong-listed science and technology innovation companies and leading advanced manufacturing companies.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong-listed TMT leaders.</p><p><b>Be patient and increase your holdings in leading companies in the consumer services sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and commercial management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to \"Good Allocation Opportunities for High-Quality Central State-Owned Enterprises in Hong Kong Stocks Risk warning: Economic growth in China and the United States is slowing down; With persistently high inflation in the United States, US monetary policy has tightened ahead of schedule and more than expected. Risks of great power competition; COVID-19 epidemic mutations exceed expectations</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1 Viewpoint Review: January Strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>The in-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack: The Investment Clock Shifts from 'Stagflation-Like' to 'Recession'\" published on October 14, 2021, proposed that...</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next most likely scenario on China's investment clock is a recession, with October shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession. Stagflationary pressures remained in Europe and the United States in the fourth quarter, with short-term concerns arising from the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar. Hong Kong stocks: Bottoming out area, repeatedly \"bottoming out\" and tempering people's sentiment. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it cannot be ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>The report, titled \"Market Conditions Wear Down the 'Bottom' and Wear Down People's Hearts,\" published on November 1, 2021, pointed</b>Hong Kong stocks will continue to \"bottom out\" repeatedly in the bottoming area, and structural market trends will continue to follow A-shares. November Market Outlook<b>After rebounding in October, the momentum for a continued rebound in Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The report, \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment,\" dated December 1, 2021, points out:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed its bottom and a concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment in Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, carefully select and patiently invest in high-quality long-term stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" dated January 1, 2022, emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappeared in January 2022, and the internal and external environment provided a window of opportunity for a rebound:</b>With domestic policies to stabilize the economy taking effect, monetary policy is expected to be further eased in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks is improving marginally.</p><p><b>A report dated January 21, 2022, titled \"Why Did Hong Kong Stocks Surge Due to Significant Fluctuations in US Stocks?\", points out:</b>The impact of the US \"recession\" on the Hong Kong stock market, a \"global valuation haven,\" is currently limited, and it is gradually becoming less sensitive. Hong Kong stocks are seeing a dawn amid China's policy of \"stabilizing growth and easing monetary policy.\"</p><p><b>The report published on January 25, 2022, titled \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market,\" predicted that US stocks were likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond yields, market rebound shocks, and the January FOMC meeting on US stocks has come to an end. The performance of heavyweight US stocks and potential share buybacks will determine whether US stocks can experience a decent rebound in the future. Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? In addition, looking ahead to the medium term, the US stock market has not yet reached its mid-term bottom.</p><p><b>1.2 January Market Review: In the first half of the month, heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; Later in the month, the market corrected, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.7% for the month.</b></p><p>As of January 31, the major Hong Kong stock indices in January were the Hang Seng Index up 1.7%, the Hang Seng Government Index up 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index down 0.2%. In addition, Hang Seng large-cap stocks rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap stocks fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap stocks fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and Comprehensive (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Consumer Discretionaries (down 11.1%) and Industrials (down 7.3%) led the declines.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Hong Kong Stock Outlook: Risk appetite is expected to improve in February, but overseas risks will continue to disrupt the market in the medium term.</b></p><p><b>2.1 Overseas Forecast: After US stocks bottom out in the short term, February will be a rebound window; However, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and the mid-term bottom of US stocks has not yet arrived.</b></p><p><b>2.1.1 In the short term, US stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to improving risk appetite for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>US stocks met expectations, confirming a short-term bottom.</b>US long-term Treasury yields fell; The VIX closed at 27.66 on 0128, a significant drop from its intraday high of 38.94 on 0124. The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent rebound in US stocks depends on fundamental expectations. Can US stocks experience a decent rebound in the future? Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? The \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of US heavyweight stocks and subsequent share buybacks.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest better-than-expected quarterly report spurred a rebound in US stocks. Looking ahead, we'll focus on the performance of Alphabet (GOOGL.US), MetaPlatform (FB.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US), as well as subsequent share buybacks and executive increases in holdings. According to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix stock after its results fell short of expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2 In the medium term, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and US stocks still face significant volatility risks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, leading to a difficult path for Hong Kong stocks to rebound after a sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>First, long-term US Treasury yields were likely to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after a pullback in February.</b>As a major buying force in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's Taper will end in March as the tide of Fed bond purchases rapidly subsides. Given the high inflation in the first half of the year, and following the first rate hike in March, discussions on the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be on the agenda. We predict that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Treasury Bond is expected to break through 2% in the second quarter.<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, the FOMC decided in January to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, therefore the Fed will end its bond purchases in March 2022. Regarding shrinking balance sheet, in response to a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, Powell said, \"We will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters.\"</p><p><b>Secondly, strong rate hike expectations remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of December 28, 2022, the Federal Funds rate futures market had anticipated more than one Fed rate hike in March (each time 25 basis points). Given the persistently high pressure on global supply chains, high inflation in the United States is likely to remain sticky in the first half of the year and is unlikely to decline significantly. It cannot be ruled out that the market will remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, given the impact of the global pandemic on global supply chains and the aftereffects of the \"massive easing\" policies of the previous two years, the risk of high inflation overseas and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>Currently, emerging market rate hike is responding to the Federal Reserve's tightening, while in developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects the Bank of England, the Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of Canada to likely make rate hike, and the European Central Bank's statement on its first interest rate decision of the year will also be crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2 China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Policies are \"self-centered and stability-oriented,\" and further policy easing is expected.</b></p><p><b>Under the principle of stabilizing growth, further easing of monetary policy is still expected. This will, on the one hand, avoid systemic credit risks in sectors such as real estate, and on the other hand, help stabilize expectations and demand.</b>The current economic growth rate still faces downward pressure. The pressure of real estate debt maturity increased in the first quarter, and the credit risk in the real estate and other sectors and its drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of the MLF and the LPR of various maturities are positive signals of response, and further monetary and fiscal easing is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further monetary easing, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to gain momentum after the Spring Festival.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of significant downward pressure on economic growth, real GDP grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated pandemic, consumption growth briefly rebounded and then came under pressure again.</p><p>Currently, under the premise that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and that real estate is not the main means of stimulating the economy, the main means of quickly stabilizing the economy still relies on \"stabilizing infrastructure,\" especially \"new infrastructure\" in the broad sense, which is conducive to structural adjustment in the long run and stabilizing growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for the early batch of 2022 was allocated in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"carry out infrastructure investment in a moderately advanced manner\". With the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded in December. Looking ahead, infrastructure investment may see a surge in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3 Improved expectations for policy and fundamentals in heavyweight sectors provide support for Hong Kong stocks at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>Policies to stabilize growth are expected to be further strengthened, and related sectors in Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) Improved prosperity in traditional industries such as construction and building materials, leading to a revaluation of undervalued Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises; 2) The high prosperity of new energy stocks such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continued, but the market performance diverged; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under \"recessionary easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be reassessed.</p><p><b>China's real estate policies have improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for the real estate market has been continuously improving, moving towards a virtuous cycle: the LPR rate has been lowered; Some cities have relaxed their regulations on pre-sale funds; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The conference emphasized the need to place risk prevention in a more prominent position, prevent and resolve risks in the housing and urban-rural development sector, better stimulate enterprise vitality, stabilize growth, and fully unleash residents' housing demand.</p><p><b>Internet industry policies have improved marginally.</b>In 2022, the direction of internet policy shifted from \"preventing disorderly capital expansion\" to \"developing in a regulated manner.\"<b>On January 28, the Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of internet companies. At the meeting, relevant officials emphasized that.</b>\"Currently, the overall situation and development trend of my country's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet companies have broad development prospects and great potential. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence. The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in my country's Internet field is an objective requirement and an inevitable trend. This provides a strong guarantee for Internet companies to strengthen management and standardize operation. We must view this correctly and actively adapt.\"</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from expectations of rate hike in the UK and the US, and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the wave of revaluation of central state-owned enterprises is still in full swing.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance of central enterprises in 2021. At the conference, a relevant official from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) revealed that the profit growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, achieving operating revenue of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profits increased by 30.3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should prioritize stability and seek progress while maintaining stability\", the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goals of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the completion of stable growth tasks with the promotion of high-quality development, promote stability through stability and consolidate stability through progress, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) Meanwhile, 2022 is the final year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in opportunities for turnaround or transformation.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: In the short term, stay half sober and half drunk, defensive and counter-attacking; Accumulating small wins in the mid-term to turn them into big wins: select individual stocks.</b></p><p><b>3.1 The investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, carefully select individual stocks, prepare for defensive counter-attacks, and accumulate small victories into big wins\".</b></p><p>In the medium to long term, the overall framework of Hong Kong stocks being simultaneously influenced by overseas liquidity, sentiment, and Chinese fundamentals is unlikely to change. Given the pressure on the Chinese economy in the first half of the year, the continued rate hike in the United States, and the basic assessment that the mid-term correction of US stocks is not yet complete and will fluctuate throughout the year, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs to be even more defensive and counter-attacking. Only by focusing on value and carefully selecting individual stocks can we survive in the cracks, maximize benefits and minimize harms, and accumulate small victories into big ones.</p><p><b>3.2 Investment Directions for the February Rebound: Based on improved fundamental expectations, focus on a \"mean reversion\" trend.</b></p><p>The rebound and divergence of leading internet companies: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to make good trades in the short term and not to linger. With the internet industry policy environment \"developing in a standardized manner\" showing marginal improvement, it is expected to rebound in the short term along with US technology stocks. However, in the long run, the overall logic of the internet has been overturned, shifting from the past \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, with US monetary policy tightening and US stocks yet to reach a mid-term bottom, the rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector in the first half of the year still requires repeated trading and hedging.</p><p>Revaluation of state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and Hong Kong stocks: 1) Opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"loose monetary policy and loose credit\" in the first quarter. Pay attention to the valuation revaluation of high-dividend stocks in finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" stocks. 2) State-owned enterprise reform, especially opportunities for state-owned enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions, pay attention to opportunities in railways, power, real estate, securities firms and other sectors. 3) There are opportunities for market conditions to improve; pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks will continue to be revalued, benefiting from expectations of rate hike in Europe and the United States.</p><p>Opportunities for rebounds in sectors affected by the pandemic, including logistics, catering, and tourism.</p><p>High-performing stocks in the home appliances and electrical tools sectors exported to Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on a medium- to long-term perspective, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Seeking opportunities for Hong Kong-listed science and technology innovation companies and leading advanced manufacturing companies.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear, and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong-listed TMT leaders<b>。</b></p><p><b>Be patient and increase your holdings in leading companies in the consumer services sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and commercial management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to \"Good Allocation Opportunities for High-Quality Central State-Owned Enterprises in Hong Kong Stocks\" (July 2022).</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>Economic growth in China and the United States is slowing down; With persistently high inflation in the United States, US monetary policy has tightened ahead of schedule and more than expected. Risks of great power competition; The mutations in the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong Stock Strategy for February: Improved risk appetite is expected, focusing on a \"mean reversion\" trend.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong Stock Strategy for February: Improved risk appetite is expected, focusing on a \"mean reversion\" trend.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-01 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1 Viewpoint Review: January Strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>The January 1st report, \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears,\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappeared in January 2022, and the internal and external environment provided a window of opportunity for a rebound:</b>With domestic policies to stabilize the economy taking effect, monetary policy is expected to be further eased in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks is improving marginally.</p><p><b>A report published on January 21, titled \"Why Did Hong Kong Stocks Surge Due to Significant Fluctuations in US Stocks?\", pointed out:</b>The impact of the US \"recession\" on the Hong Kong stock market, a \"global valuation haven,\" is currently limited, and it is gradually becoming less sensitive. Hong Kong stocks are seeing a dawn amid China's policy of \"stabilizing growth and easing monetary policy.\"</p><p><b>A report published on January 25, titled \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market,\" predicts that US stocks are likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond yields, market rebound shocks, and the January FOMC meeting on US stocks has come to an end. The performance of heavyweight US stocks and potential share buybacks will determine whether US stocks can experience a decent rebound in the future. Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? In addition, looking ahead to the medium term, the US stock market has not yet reached its mid-term bottom.</p><p><b>1.2 January Market Review: In the first half of the month, heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; Later in the month, the market corrected, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.7% for the month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng Government Index rose 1.4%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In terms of sectors, energy, telecommunications, and conglomerates led the gains, while healthcare, consumer discretionaries, and industry led the declines.</p><p><b>2. Hong Kong Stock Outlook: Risk appetite is expected to improve in February, but overseas risks will continue to disrupt the market in the medium term.</b></p><p><b>2.1 Overseas Forecast: After US stocks bottom out in the short term, February will be a rebound window; However, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and the mid-term bottom of US stocks has not yet arrived.</b></p><p><b>2.1.1 In the short term, US stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to improving risk appetite for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>US stocks met expectations, confirming a short-term bottom. US long-term Treasury yields fell; The VIX closed at 27.66 on 0128, a significant drop from its intraday high of 38.94 on 0124. The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent rebound in US stocks depends on fundamental expectations. Can US stocks experience a decent rebound in the future? Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? The \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of US heavyweight stocks and subsequent share buybacks. Apple's latest better-than-expected quarterly report spurred a rebound in US stocks. Looking ahead, we should focus on 0201 Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, and 0203.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The focus was on the company's performance, and the subsequent share buybacks and executive shareholding increases.</p><p>February coincides with the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. Geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations starting in February, which will then temporarily ease concerns about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks.</p><p><b>2.1.2 In the medium term, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and US stocks still face significant volatility risks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, leading to a difficult path for Hong Kong stocks to rebound after a sharp decline.</b></p><p>First, long-term US Treasury yields were likely to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after a pullback in February. As a major buying force in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's TAPER will end in March as the tide of Fed bond purchases rapidly subsides. Given the high inflation in the first half of the year, and following the first rate hike in March, discussions on the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We believe that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond in Treasury Bond is expected to break through 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, strong rate hike expectations remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of December 28, 2022, the Federal Funds rate futures market had anticipated more than one Fed rate hike in March (each time 25 basis points). Given the persistently high pressure on global supply chains, high inflation in the United States is likely to remain sticky in the first half of the year and is unlikely to decline significantly. It cannot be ruled out that the market will remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p>Third, given the impact of the global pandemic on global supply chains and the aftereffects of the \"massive easing\" policies of the previous two years, the risk of high inflation overseas and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2 China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Policies are \"self-centered and stability-oriented,\" and further policy easing is expected.</b></p><p>Under the principle of stabilizing growth, further easing of monetary policy is still expected. This will, on the one hand, avoid systemic credit risks in sectors such as real estate, and on the other hand, help stabilize expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further monetary easing, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to gain momentum after the Spring Festival.</p><p><b>2.3 Improved expectations for policy and fundamentals in heavyweight sectors provide support for the bottoming out area of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>Policies to stabilize growth are expected to be further strengthened, and related sectors in Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) Improved prosperity in traditional industries such as construction and building materials, leading to a revaluation of undervalued Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises; 2) The high prosperity of new energy stocks such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continued, but the market performance diverged; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under \"recessionary easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be reassessed.</p><p>China's real estate policies have improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for the real estate market has been continuously improving, moving towards a virtuous cycle: the LPR rate has been lowered; Some cities have relaxed their regulations on pre-sale funds; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The conference emphasized the need to place risk prevention in a more prominent position, prevent and resolve risks in the housing and urban-rural development sector, better stimulate enterprise vitality, stabilize growth, and fully unleash residents' housing demand.</p><p>Internet industry policies have improved marginally. In 2022, the direction of internet policy shifted from \"preventing disorderly capital expansion\" to \"developing in a regulated manner.\"<b>On January 28, the Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of internet companies. At the meeting, relevant officials emphasized that.</b>\"Currently, the overall situation and development trend of my country's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet companies have broad development prospects and great potential. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence. The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in my country's Internet field is an objective requirement and an inevitable trend. This provides a strong guarantee for Internet companies to strengthen management and standardize operation. We must view this correctly and actively adapt.\"</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from expectations of rate hike in the UK and the US, and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the wave of revaluation of central state-owned enterprises is still in full swing. 1) In 2021, the profit growth of central state-owned enterprises reached the best level in history, with net profit increasing by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) With the implementation of domestic policies to stabilize the economy in 2022, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will bear the main task of stabilizing growth. 3) 2022 is the final year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform, and the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: In the short term, stay half sober and half drunk, defensive and counter-attacking; Accumulating small wins in the mid-term to turn them into big wins: select individual stocks.</b></p><p><b>3.1 The investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, carefully select individual stocks, do a good job of defense and counter-attack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium to long term, the overall framework of Hong Kong stocks being simultaneously influenced by overseas liquidity, sentiment, and Chinese fundamentals is unlikely to change. Given the pressure on the Chinese economy in the first half of the year, the continued rate hike in the United States, and the basic assessment that the mid-term correction of US stocks is not yet complete and will fluctuate throughout the year, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs to be even more defensive and counter-attacking. Only by focusing on value and carefully selecting individual stocks can we survive in the cracks, maximize benefits and minimize harms, and accumulate small victories into big ones.</p><p><b>3.2 Investment Directions for the February Rebound: Based on improved fundamental expectations, focus on a \"mean reversion\" trend:</b></p><p>The rebound and divergence of leading internet companies: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to make good trades in the short term and not to linger. With the internet industry policy environment \"developing in a standardized manner\" showing marginal improvement, it is expected to rebound in the short term along with US technology stocks. However, in the long run, the overall logic of the internet has been overturned, shifting from the past \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, with US monetary policy tightening and US stocks yet to reach a mid-term bottom, the rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector in the first half of the year still requires repeated trading and hedging.</p><p>Revaluation of state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and Hong Kong stocks: 1) Opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"loose monetary policy and loose credit\" in the first quarter. Pay attention to the valuation revaluation of high-dividend stocks in finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" stocks. 2) State-owned enterprise reform, especially opportunities for state-owned enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions, pay attention to opportunities in railways, power, real estate, securities firms and other sectors. 3) There are opportunities for market conditions to improve; pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks will continue to be revalued, benefiting from expectations of rate hike in Europe and the United States.</p><p>Opportunities for rebounds in sectors affected by the pandemic, including logistics, catering, and tourism.</p><p>High-performing stocks in the home appliances and electrical tools sectors exported to Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on a medium- to long-term perspective, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Seeking opportunities for Hong Kong-listed science and technology innovation companies and leading advanced manufacturing companies.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong-listed TMT leaders.</p><p><b>Be patient and increase your holdings in leading companies in the consumer services sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and commercial management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to \"Good Allocation Opportunities for High-Quality Central State-Owned Enterprises in Hong Kong Stocks Risk warning: Economic growth in China and the United States is slowing down; With persistently high inflation in the United States, US monetary policy has tightened ahead of schedule and more than expected. Risks of great power competition; COVID-19 epidemic mutations exceed expectations</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1 Viewpoint Review: January Strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>The in-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack: The Investment Clock Shifts from 'Stagflation-Like' to 'Recession'\" published on October 14, 2021, proposed that...</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next most likely scenario on China's investment clock is a recession, with October shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession. Stagflationary pressures remained in Europe and the United States in the fourth quarter, with short-term concerns arising from the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar. Hong Kong stocks: Bottoming out area, repeatedly \"bottoming out\" and tempering people's sentiment. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it cannot be ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>The report, titled \"Market Conditions Wear Down the 'Bottom' and Wear Down People's Hearts,\" published on November 1, 2021, pointed</b>Hong Kong stocks will continue to \"bottom out\" repeatedly in the bottoming area, and structural market trends will continue to follow A-shares. November Market Outlook<b>After rebounding in October, the momentum for a continued rebound in Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The report, \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment,\" dated December 1, 2021, points out:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed its bottom and a concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment in Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, carefully select and patiently invest in high-quality long-term stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" dated January 1, 2022, emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappeared in January 2022, and the internal and external environment provided a window of opportunity for a rebound:</b>With domestic policies to stabilize the economy taking effect, monetary policy is expected to be further eased in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks is improving marginally.</p><p><b>A report dated January 21, 2022, titled \"Why Did Hong Kong Stocks Surge Due to Significant Fluctuations in US Stocks?\", points out:</b>The impact of the US \"recession\" on the Hong Kong stock market, a \"global valuation haven,\" is currently limited, and it is gradually becoming less sensitive. Hong Kong stocks are seeing a dawn amid China's policy of \"stabilizing growth and easing monetary policy.\"</p><p><b>The report published on January 25, 2022, titled \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market,\" predicted that US stocks were likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond yields, market rebound shocks, and the January FOMC meeting on US stocks has come to an end. The performance of heavyweight US stocks and potential share buybacks will determine whether US stocks can experience a decent rebound in the future. Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? In addition, looking ahead to the medium term, the US stock market has not yet reached its mid-term bottom.</p><p><b>1.2 January Market Review: In the first half of the month, heavyweight sectors in Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; Later in the month, the market corrected, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.7% for the month.</b></p><p>As of January 31, the major Hong Kong stock indices in January were the Hang Seng Index up 1.7%, the Hang Seng Government Index up 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index down 0.2%. In addition, Hang Seng large-cap stocks rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap stocks fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap stocks fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and Comprehensive (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Consumer Discretionaries (down 11.1%) and Industrials (down 7.3%) led the declines.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Hong Kong Stock Outlook: Risk appetite is expected to improve in February, but overseas risks will continue to disrupt the market in the medium term.</b></p><p><b>2.1 Overseas Forecast: After US stocks bottom out in the short term, February will be a rebound window; However, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and the mid-term bottom of US stocks has not yet arrived.</b></p><p><b>2.1.1 In the short term, US stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to improving risk appetite for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>US stocks met expectations, confirming a short-term bottom.</b>US long-term Treasury yields fell; The VIX closed at 27.66 on 0128, a significant drop from its intraday high of 38.94 on 0124. The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent rebound in US stocks depends on fundamental expectations. Can US stocks experience a decent rebound in the future? Or is it just a relay respite from the decline? The \"Short-Term and Medium-Term Bottom Forecasts for US Stocks and the Impact of US Stock Volatility on the Chinese Stock Market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of US heavyweight stocks and subsequent share buybacks.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest better-than-expected quarterly report spurred a rebound in US stocks. Looking ahead, we'll focus on the performance of Alphabet (GOOGL.US), MetaPlatform (FB.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US), as well as subsequent share buybacks and executive increases in holdings. According to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix stock after its results fell short of expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2 In the medium term, US monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and US stocks still face significant volatility risks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, leading to a difficult path for Hong Kong stocks to rebound after a sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>First, long-term US Treasury yields were likely to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after a pullback in February.</b>As a major buying force in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's Taper will end in March as the tide of Fed bond purchases rapidly subsides. Given the high inflation in the first half of the year, and following the first rate hike in March, discussions on the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be on the agenda. We predict that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Treasury Bond is expected to break through 2% in the second quarter.<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, the FOMC decided in January to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, therefore the Fed will end its bond purchases in March 2022. Regarding shrinking balance sheet, in response to a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, Powell said, \"We will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters.\"</p><p><b>Secondly, strong rate hike expectations remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of December 28, 2022, the Federal Funds rate futures market had anticipated more than one Fed rate hike in March (each time 25 basis points). Given the persistently high pressure on global supply chains, high inflation in the United States is likely to remain sticky in the first half of the year and is unlikely to decline significantly. It cannot be ruled out that the market will remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, given the impact of the global pandemic on global supply chains and the aftereffects of the \"massive easing\" policies of the previous two years, the risk of high inflation overseas and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>Currently, emerging market rate hike is responding to the Federal Reserve's tightening, while in developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects the Bank of England, the Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of Canada to likely make rate hike, and the European Central Bank's statement on its first interest rate decision of the year will also be crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2 China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Policies are \"self-centered and stability-oriented,\" and further policy easing is expected.</b></p><p><b>Under the principle of stabilizing growth, further easing of monetary policy is still expected. This will, on the one hand, avoid systemic credit risks in sectors such as real estate, and on the other hand, help stabilize expectations and demand.</b>The current economic growth rate still faces downward pressure. The pressure of real estate debt maturity increased in the first quarter, and the credit risk in the real estate and other sectors and its drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of the MLF and the LPR of various maturities are positive signals of response, and further monetary and fiscal easing is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further monetary easing, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to gain momentum after the Spring Festival.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of significant downward pressure on economic growth, real GDP grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated pandemic, consumption growth briefly rebounded and then came under pressure again.</p><p>Currently, under the premise that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and that real estate is not the main means of stimulating the economy, the main means of quickly stabilizing the economy still relies on \"stabilizing infrastructure,\" especially \"new infrastructure\" in the broad sense, which is conducive to structural adjustment in the long run and stabilizing growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for the early batch of 2022 was allocated in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"carry out infrastructure investment in a moderately advanced manner\". With the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded in December. Looking ahead, infrastructure investment may see a surge in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3 Improved expectations for policy and fundamentals in heavyweight sectors provide support for Hong Kong stocks at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>Policies to stabilize growth are expected to be further strengthened, and related sectors in Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) Improved prosperity in traditional industries such as construction and building materials, leading to a revaluation of undervalued Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises; 2) The high prosperity of new energy stocks such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continued, but the market performance diverged; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under \"recessionary easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be reassessed.</p><p><b>China's real estate policies have improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for the real estate market has been continuously improving, moving towards a virtuous cycle: the LPR rate has been lowered; Some cities have relaxed their regulations on pre-sale funds; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The conference emphasized the need to place risk prevention in a more prominent position, prevent and resolve risks in the housing and urban-rural development sector, better stimulate enterprise vitality, stabilize growth, and fully unleash residents' housing demand.</p><p><b>Internet industry policies have improved marginally.</b>In 2022, the direction of internet policy shifted from \"preventing disorderly capital expansion\" to \"developing in a regulated manner.\"<b>On January 28, the Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of internet companies. At the meeting, relevant officials emphasized that.</b>\"Currently, the overall situation and development trend of my country's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet companies have broad development prospects and great potential. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence. The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in my country's Internet field is an objective requirement and an inevitable trend. This provides a strong guarantee for Internet companies to strengthen management and standardize operation. We must view this correctly and actively adapt.\"</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from expectations of rate hike in the UK and the US, and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the wave of revaluation of central state-owned enterprises is still in full swing.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance of central enterprises in 2021. At the conference, a relevant official from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) revealed that the profit growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, achieving operating revenue of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profits increased by 30.3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should prioritize stability and seek progress while maintaining stability\", the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goals of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the completion of stable growth tasks with the promotion of high-quality development, promote stability through stability and consolidate stability through progress, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) Meanwhile, 2022 is the final year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in opportunities for turnaround or transformation.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: In the short term, stay half sober and half drunk, defensive and counter-attacking; Accumulating small wins in the mid-term to turn them into big wins: select individual stocks.</b></p><p><b>3.1 The investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, carefully select individual stocks, prepare for defensive counter-attacks, and accumulate small victories into big wins\".</b></p><p>In the medium to long term, the overall framework of Hong Kong stocks being simultaneously influenced by overseas liquidity, sentiment, and Chinese fundamentals is unlikely to change. Given the pressure on the Chinese economy in the first half of the year, the continued rate hike in the United States, and the basic assessment that the mid-term correction of US stocks is not yet complete and will fluctuate throughout the year, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs to be even more defensive and counter-attacking. Only by focusing on value and carefully selecting individual stocks can we survive in the cracks, maximize benefits and minimize harms, and accumulate small victories into big ones.</p><p><b>3.2 Investment Directions for the February Rebound: Based on improved fundamental expectations, focus on a \"mean reversion\" trend.</b></p><p>The rebound and divergence of leading internet companies: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to make good trades in the short term and not to linger. With the internet industry policy environment \"developing in a standardized manner\" showing marginal improvement, it is expected to rebound in the short term along with US technology stocks. However, in the long run, the overall logic of the internet has been overturned, shifting from the past \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, with US monetary policy tightening and US stocks yet to reach a mid-term bottom, the rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector in the first half of the year still requires repeated trading and hedging.</p><p>Revaluation of state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and Hong Kong stocks: 1) Opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"loose monetary policy and loose credit\" in the first quarter. Pay attention to the valuation revaluation of high-dividend stocks in finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" stocks. 2) State-owned enterprise reform, especially opportunities for state-owned enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions, pay attention to opportunities in railways, power, real estate, securities firms and other sectors. 3) There are opportunities for market conditions to improve; pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks will continue to be revalued, benefiting from expectations of rate hike in Europe and the United States.</p><p>Opportunities for rebounds in sectors affected by the pandemic, including logistics, catering, and tourism.</p><p>High-performing stocks in the home appliances and electrical tools sectors exported to Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on a medium- to long-term perspective, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Seeking opportunities for Hong Kong-listed science and technology innovation companies and leading advanced manufacturing companies.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear, and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong-listed TMT leaders<b>。</b></p><p><b>Be patient and increase your holdings in leading companies in the consumer services sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and commercial management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to \"Good Allocation Opportunities for High-Quality Central State-Owned Enterprises in Hong Kong Stocks\" (July 2022).</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>Economic growth in China and the United States is slowing down; With persistently high inflation in the United States, US monetary policy has tightened ahead of schedule and more than expected. Risks of great power competition; The mutations in the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109587984","content_text":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%。另外，1月份，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；行业上能源业、电讯业和综合业领涨，医疗保健业、非必需性消费业和工业领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet、0202 Meta Platform、0203亚马逊的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度。2月份是北京冬奥会阶段，海外地缘政治风险有望缓和。围绕乌克兰地缘政治风险有望在2月份开始通过谈判逐步降温，进而，对于欧洲能源危机、全球油价风险的担忧将会随之阶段性降温。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份TAPER将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑。稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）2021年央企效益增长创历史最好水平，净利润同比增长29.8%。2）2022年国内稳经济政策发力，国企央企将承担着稳增长的主要任务。3）2022年国企改革三年行动收官之年，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”。中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情：互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会。淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链 2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等 3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。风险提示：中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期报告正文1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》2021年10月14日深度报告《防守反击，投资时钟从“类滞胀”转向“衰退”》提出，今年四季度，中国投资时钟下一步更大概率的场景是衰退，10月份正从“类滞胀”转向衰退；四季度欧美仍有滞胀压力，美债收益率和美元反弹带来短期惊扰。港股：底部区域，反复“磨底”、熬炼人心，其中，10月至11月中旬是好的反弹窗口，但反弹以后，不排除到年底的时候港股会面临动荡。2021年11月1日报告《行情磨“底部”更磨人心》指出：港股仍将在底部区域反复“磨底”，结构性行情仍将跟随A股。11月行情展望——10月份反弹以后，港股四季度持续反弹的动能较弱。2021年12月1日报告《在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光》指出：恒指在反复确认底部、港股悲观情绪集中释放后，港股有望迎来反弹。要在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光，精选并耐心布局长线优质股票。2022年1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。2022年1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。2022年1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%截至1月31日，1月份港股主要指数，恒生指数涨1.7%，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；另外，恒生大型股涨1.0%，恒生中型股跌4.3%，恒生科技跌4.5%，恒生小型股跌6.3%。行业上，恒生能源业（涨10.5%）、电讯业（涨10.1%）和综合业（涨9.0%）领涨，医疗保健业（跌15.1%）、非必需性消费业（跌11.1%）和工业（跌7.3%）领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司(AAPL.US)最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、0202 MetaPlatform(FB.US)、0203亚马逊(AMZN.US)的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度——根据媒体的报道，Netflix(NFLX.US)因业绩不达预期下跌后其联席首席执行官Reed Hastings买入价值2千万美元的Netflix股票。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份Taper将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。关于缩减购债，1月FOMC决议维持当前缩减购债步伐，因此2022年3月联储将结束购债；关于缩表，1月FOMC会后答记者问鲍威尔表示“将在加息至少一次之后开会讨论具体缩表事宜”。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。目前新兴市场加息应对联储收紧，发达市场方面，据媒体报道，市场预计0203英国央行、0223新西兰央行、0302加拿大央行也大概率加息，0203欧洲央行的今年首次利率决议表态也至关重要。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。当前经济增速仍面临下行压力，1季度房地产债务到期压力加大，房地产等领域的信用风险及其对经济的拖累依然不容低估，所以，近期调降MLF、各个期限的LPR是积极的应对信号，后续货币及财政的进一步宽松值得期待。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。在经济增速仍面临较大下行压力的大背景下，2021年四季度，实际GDP同比增长4.0%，较三季度回落0.9个百分点。受疫情反复的拖累，消费增速短暂回暖后再次承压。当前，在房住不炒、不把房地产作为刺激经济的主要手段的前提下，能够快速稳经济的主要手段，依然要依靠“稳基建”，特别是长期有利于调结构短期有利于稳增长的广义“新基建”。根据兴业证券宏观团队研究，2022年提前批次的新增专项债额度已于2021年12月下达，下达时间略早于2021年同期，体现政府“适度超前开展基础设施投资”的决心。随着11月、12月专项债发行加速，12月基建增速已有回暖，往后看，2022年上半年基建投资或迎来发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）1月19日，国新办举行2021年央企经济运行情况新闻发布会，国资委相关负责人在会上透露，2021年中央企业效益增长创历史最好水平，实现营业收入36.3万亿元，同比增长19.5%，利润同比增长了30.3%，净利润同比增长了29.8%。2）在“经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进”的要求下，国资委表示，2022年央企将围绕“两增一控三提高”的目标，把完成稳增长任务和推动高质量发展结合起来，以稳促进、以进固稳，为经济社会发展作出更大贡献。3）同时，2022年是国企改革三年行动收官之年，在实施“双碳”战略、高质量发展、共同富裕的新时代，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。4、风险提示中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090582697,"gmtCreate":1643232635672,"gmtModify":1676533787042,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090582697","repostId":"1147161020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147161020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643203287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147161020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 21:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147161020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor conference held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Xiao En stated that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee, and management team are working together to develop a comprehensive, detailed, and effective plan, study various potential solutions, and plan to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-26 21:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor conference held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Xiao En stated that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee, and management team are working together to develop a comprehensive, detailed, and effective plan, study various potential solutions, and plan to launch a preliminary restructuring plan within the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147161020","content_text":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812093766,"gmtCreate":1630540183555,"gmtModify":1676530332302,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"keep 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