Profile - To The Moon

BabyHuatHuat

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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2022-10-28
  Ok
  Ford Expects a Profit Rebound. What Wall Street Is Saying
  Ford Motor expects a big fourth quarter, bouncing back from supply-chain-induced challenges experien
  Ford Expects a Profit Rebound. What Wall Street Is Saying
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-05-19
  Whyyyy....i buy up it went down, i buy down it went up...?
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-05-16
  Dame..
  Afraid Of Inflation? Four Ways To Protect Your Stocks
  The scare of inflation is threatening the S&P 500. But if you know what to expect, signs of rising prices aren't always kryptonite to your portfolio.
  Afraid Of Inflation? Four Ways To Protect Your Stocks
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-05-08
  Like and comment for the coin.thanks
  What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?
  To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t
  What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-05-07
  Like amd comment for the coin.thanks
  Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company
  SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere
  Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-05-02
  Ready for the moon!!!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-04-30
  FAANG go go go!!! Bring Nasdaq up!!!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-04-25
  Go go go for the coins....
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  5.79K Comment
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-04-24
  To the moon..
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BabyHuatHuatBabyHuatHuat
  ·2021-04-23
  Red seeaa...
  Biden to float historic tax increase on investment gains for the rich
  President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the l
  Biden to float historic tax increase on investment gains for the rich
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22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Expects a Profit Rebound. What Wall Street Is Saying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156565544","media":"Barron's","summary":"Ford Motor expects a big fourth quarter, bouncing back from supply-chain-induced challenges experien","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ford Motor expects a big fourth quarter, bouncing back from supply-chain-induced challenges experienced in the third quarter. Wall Street isn’t so sure things will turn as well as the company expects.</p><p>Wednesday, Ford (ticker: F) reported third-quarter operating profit of $1.8 billion, down from $3.7 reported in the second quarter. Ford didn’t finish some 40,000 vehicles due to lack of parts. The company expects to ship those in the fourth quarter, but it also said higher costs were part of the reason earnings declined sequentially.</p><p>Ford believes it will earn roughly $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. That would hit Ford’s lowered full-year operating profit guidance for $11.5 billion, down from a range midpoint of $12 billion. Wall Street sounds skeptical.</p><p>“We still do not view its revised-down $11.5 [billion profit] guidance for the year as fully de-risked, in light of seemingly much larger volume, inflation and credit headwinds than previously contemplated,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a Thursday report.</p><p>Ford paid its suppliers an extra $1 billion to help offset rising labor and commodity costs. Rising prices coming from the supply base will be a theme for Ford, and all other auto makers, in the fourth quarter and beyond.</p><p>Ford Credit is facing its own headwinds, too. Interest rates are up, and used-vehicle prices are falling from all-time highs. That has earnings at Ford’s financial unit a little lower than in recent quarter.</p><p>Rosner says business execution has to be “perfect” for Ford to hit its full-year operating profit mark. He rates Ford stock at Hold, and has a $13 price target.</p><p>Benchmark analyst Mike Ward sounds more sanguine, and focused on cash flow in his Thursday report. “Ford ended 3Q with a net cash position at the auto operations, excluding Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stake, of $10.9 billion compared with $6.9 billion at the end of June, and $5.5 billion at year-end 2021,” wrote Ward.</p><p>(Net cash simply means cash minus debt.)</p><p>Ford’s balance sheet is in good shape, putting Ford is a strong position to compete with auto makers, including Tesla (TSLA) in the coming couple of years, according to Ward. He rates Ford stock at Buy with a $23 price target.</p><p>RBC analyst Joseph Spak rates Ford stock at Hold. His price target is the lowest of the three analyst at $12. He cut it by $1 after Ford’s quarterly update.</p><p>Spak is a little more worried that vehicle mix will be a new headwind for the company. Auto production has been constrained globally for years because of a lack of semiconductors. Auto companies, including Ford, have been making only their most-profitable products while allocating their limited chip supply. As the supply-chain snarls untangle, new-vehicles inventories will rise. That will pressure new-car pricing. It will also mean more, lower-end, cars get built.</p><p>It all means Spak has a “more cautious base view on 2023.” His $12 price target works out to only 6.5 times estimated 2023 consensus earnings estimates of $1.86 a share. Spak’s 2023 earnings estimate, however, is much lower at 53 cents a share.</p><p>For the fourth quarter, Spak expects operating profit of $3.6 billion. That’s close to what Ford expects. In this instance, the rest of the Street is lower. The current consensus fourth-quarter operating-profit estimate is $3.3 billion.</p><p>The spread between bullish and bearish estimates is wide and, frankly, a little all over the place. The Street really isn’t sure what’s coming next for Ford or the auto industry in 2023. Either recession will hit earnings and pressure shares or things won’t turn on that bad.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Expects a Profit Rebound. What Wall Street Is Saying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Expects a Profit Rebound. What Wall Street Is Saying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-27 22:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-earnings-stock-wall-street-51666879804?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ford Motor expects a big fourth quarter, bouncing back from supply-chain-induced challenges experienced in the third quarter. Wall Street isn’t so sure things will turn as well as the company expects....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-earnings-stock-wall-street-51666879804?mod=hp_LATEST\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-earnings-stock-wall-street-51666879804?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156565544","content_text":"Ford Motor expects a big fourth quarter, bouncing back from supply-chain-induced challenges experienced in the third quarter. Wall Street isn’t so sure things will turn as well as the company expects.Wednesday, Ford (ticker: F) reported third-quarter operating profit of $1.8 billion, down from $3.7 reported in the second quarter. Ford didn’t finish some 40,000 vehicles due to lack of parts. The company expects to ship those in the fourth quarter, but it also said higher costs were part of the reason earnings declined sequentially.Ford believes it will earn roughly $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. That would hit Ford’s lowered full-year operating profit guidance for $11.5 billion, down from a range midpoint of $12 billion. Wall Street sounds skeptical.“We still do not view its revised-down $11.5 [billion profit] guidance for the year as fully de-risked, in light of seemingly much larger volume, inflation and credit headwinds than previously contemplated,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a Thursday report.Ford paid its suppliers an extra $1 billion to help offset rising labor and commodity costs. Rising prices coming from the supply base will be a theme for Ford, and all other auto makers, in the fourth quarter and beyond.Ford Credit is facing its own headwinds, too. Interest rates are up, and used-vehicle prices are falling from all-time highs. That has earnings at Ford’s financial unit a little lower than in recent quarter.Rosner says business execution has to be “perfect” for Ford to hit its full-year operating profit mark. He rates Ford stock at Hold, and has a $13 price target.Benchmark analyst Mike Ward sounds more sanguine, and focused on cash flow in his Thursday report. “Ford ended 3Q with a net cash position at the auto operations, excluding Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stake, of $10.9 billion compared with $6.9 billion at the end of June, and $5.5 billion at year-end 2021,” wrote Ward.(Net cash simply means cash minus debt.)Ford’s balance sheet is in good shape, putting Ford is a strong position to compete with auto makers, including Tesla (TSLA) in the coming couple of years, according to Ward. He rates Ford stock at Buy with a $23 price target.RBC analyst Joseph Spak rates Ford stock at Hold. His price target is the lowest of the three analyst at $12. He cut it by $1 after Ford’s quarterly update.Spak is a little more worried that vehicle mix will be a new headwind for the company. Auto production has been constrained globally for years because of a lack of semiconductors. Auto companies, including Ford, have been making only their most-profitable products while allocating their limited chip supply. As the supply-chain snarls untangle, new-vehicles inventories will rise. That will pressure new-car pricing. It will also mean more, lower-end, cars get built.It all means Spak has a “more cautious base view on 2023.” His $12 price target works out to only 6.5 times estimated 2023 consensus earnings estimates of $1.86 a share. Spak’s 2023 earnings estimate, however, is much lower at 53 cents a share.For the fourth quarter, Spak expects operating profit of $3.6 billion. That’s close to what Ford expects. In this instance, the rest of the Street is lower. The current consensus fourth-quarter operating-profit estimate is $3.3 billion.The spread between bullish and bearish estimates is wide and, frankly, a little all over the place. The Street really isn’t sure what’s coming next for Ford or the auto industry in 2023. Either recession will hit earnings and pressure shares or things won’t turn on that bad.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197023506,"gmtCreate":1621412168605,"gmtModify":1704357200334,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Whyyyy....i buy up it went down, i buy down it went up...?","listText":"Whyyyy....i buy up it went down, i buy down it went up...?","text":"Whyyyy....i buy up it went down, i buy down it went up...?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197023506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521547763506220","authorId":"3521547763506220","name":"梅西点球打飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d9e9ee5b672c7e226d0fa33581c3ed5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3521547763506220","idStr":"3521547763506220"},"content":"half buy and see","text":"half buy and see","html":"half buy and see"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196447515,"gmtCreate":1621107722037,"gmtModify":1704352903224,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dame..","listText":"Dame..","text":"Dame..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196447515","repostId":"2135069756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135069756","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1621000800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135069756?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Afraid Of Inflation? Four Ways To Protect Your Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135069756","media":"Investors","summary":"The scare of inflation is threatening the S&P 500. But if you know what to expect, signs of rising prices aren't always kryptonite to your portfolio.","content":"<p>The scare of inflation is threatening the S&amp;P 500. But if you know what to expect, signs of rising prices aren't always kryptonite to your portfolio. And that's if you should worry at all.</p>\n<p>It turns out S&amp;P 500 sectors follow a fairly predictable playbook in times of rising prices. If you're worried about inflation, S&amp;P 500 sectors like energy, materials and real estate provide some safety, analysts say. \"Investors have used the threat of a spike in inflation, and now the confirmation from ... surprise strength in headline and core Consumer Price Index readings, to take profits in stocks,\" said Sam Stovall, strategist at CFRA.</p>\n<p>But knowing the facts goes a long way in dealing with any potential market shocks, including inflation.</p>\n<h3>Know The Reality In Inflation Numbers</h3>\n<p>It's important to understand what inflation numbers are truly telling you before you panic. It seems like many S&amp;P 500 investors calmed down after digging into inflation numbers more closely. The world's most popular index jumped more than 1.2% Thursday, making up the bulk of Wednesday's 2% freak-out sell-off.</p>\n<p>At first glance, inflation numbers looked scary. The 4.2% jump in headline inflation and 3% rise in core inflation was much more than anyone thought. Core inflation hasn't jumped that fast on a year-over-year basis since 2008, Stovall says.</p>\n<p>But a big piece of the rise is due to the 21% jump in annualized used vehicle prices, says Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. And that jump is due to new vehicle shortages arising from a shortage in semiconductors. Backing out this short-term disruption, headline inflation was a much more normal 3.6%, he says. Meanwhile, the unusual 49.6% jump in April gasoline prices added to the distortion.</p>\n<p>The inflation number \"just doesn't hold up to scrutiny as a warning bell about inflation,\" Colas said.</p>\n<h3>Understand How The S&amp;P 500 Reacts To Inflation</h3>\n<p>Out-of-control inflation is widely feared. But times of lingering 5%-plus annual inflation are rare. Only twice since 1928 has U.S. inflation lingered: 1941 through 1951 and 1969 to 1982, Colas found.</p>\n<p>Were these periods devastating for the S&amp;P 500? Hardly. The S&amp;P 500 jumped 310% from 1941 to 1951, that's 121.1% adjusted for inflation, Colas found. Even in the 1969-to-1982 period, seen as a terrible time for inflation, the S&amp;P 500 actually rose 176%. Yes, that's a loss of 11.6% adjusted for inflation, but it's hardly catastrophic especially for those who enjoyed the 1980s bull.</p>\n<p>Inflation itself doesn't steer the S&amp;P 500. The reason for inflation matters more. Prices rose in the 1940s for \"good reasons\" like an post-war boom, Colas said. But in the 1970s, energy price hikes were largely a tax on the economy.</p>\n<p>\"Markets are volatile because they're not sure which sort of inflation we have at present, or what (if anything) the Federal Reserve may do to bring inflation down,\" Colas said. \"That's enough uncertainty to create the volatility we're seeing, but not enough to say equities will necessarily underperform inflation in the years to come.\"</p>\n<h3>Look To The 1970s For S&amp;P 500 Clues (But Not Gospel)</h3>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 investors like to look back at the 1970s for a playbook for inflation. And it wasn't pretty, but it's not as devastating as many think either. And there were actually places to make big gains.</p>\n<p>During the 1970s, the S&amp;P 500 posted an average monthly loss of 0.3%, Stovall says. But over the entire period, the S&amp;P 500 rose 17.2%. That's just 1.6% annualized, or a fraction of the S&amp;P 500's typical 10% yearly return. S&amp;P sectors, though, hold clues or how markets can shift, Stovall says.</p>\n<p>It turns out even during the \"bad\" inflation of the 1970s, only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors fell on an average monthly basis. That sole loser was financials, which lost 0.8% monthly on average during the 1970s.</p>\n<p>So where where the places to be? S&amp;P 50 energy, materials and real estate all posted average monthly gains of 1% or higher during the 1970s, Stovall says. Materials company <b>Nucor</b> gained 2,830% during the 1970s. That's more than any current S&amp;P 500 members did at the time. Meanwhile, energy firms <b>Schlumberger</b> and <b>Baker Hughes</b> jumped 1,032% and 856%, respectively, during the 1970s.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Sector</th>\n   <th>Average monthly return during the 1970s</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>1.6%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Materials</td>\n   <td>1.4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Real Estate</td>\n   <td>1.2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Communications Services</td>\n   <td>0.9</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Information Technology</td>\n   <td>0.7</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>0.6</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Consumer Discretionary</td>\n   <td>0.3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Utilities</td>\n   <td>0.1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Health Care</td>\n   <td>0.1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Consumer Staples</td>\n   <td>0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Financials</td>\n   <td>-0.8</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>-0.3</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<h5>Source: CFRA</h5>\n<h3>Don't Overlook S&amp;P 500 Commodity Strength</h3>\n<p>Digging deeper still, Stovall found robust gains in many commodities markets, even in the inflation-plagued 1970s.</p>\n<p>Gold and precious metals companies in the S&amp;P 500 posted average monthly gains of 3.9% in the 1970s. And aluminum companies rose 2% monthly followed by oil and gas drilling at 1.8%. And to some degree, investors are already nibbling on these areas. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is up 36.7% this year. That's the top run of any S&amp;P 500 sector. Meanwhile, the Materials Select Sector SPDR is up 20% year to date.</p>\n<p>Know, too, simply owning the S&amp;P 500 may not offer great exposure to areas that held up to inflation before. These sectors hold small weights in the S&amp;P 500. Energy holds just a 2.9% weight in the S&amp;P 500. Meanwhile, materials account for 2.9% and real estate 2.5%. ETFs can fill in the gaps.</p>\n<p>ETFs and exchange-traded notes, too, can offer inflation protection. The $60 billion in assets SPDR Gold Trust moves with the price of gold. The $3 billion in assets United States Oil Fund tracks the price of crude oil. And the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> TIPS Bond ETF tracks U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for inflation.</p>\n<p>But just know inflation, alone, doesn't determine S&amp;P 500 returns. \"Inflation is just <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> input into equity prices and returns, and on its own it explains very little about how stocks will do over the longer term,\" Colas says.</p>\n<h3>Top S&amp;P 500 Stocks In The 1970s</h3>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Company</th>\n   <th>Symbol</th>\n   <th>70's % ch.</th>\n   <th>Stock YTD % ch.</th>\n   <th>Sector</th>\n   <th>Composite Rating</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Nucor</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>2,830.3%</td>\n   <td>89.5%</td>\n   <td>Materials</td>\n   <td>99</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Schlumberger</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>1,031.7%</td>\n   <td>45.5%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>72</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Baker Hughes</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>856.4%</td>\n   <td>16.8%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>78</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Archer Daniels Midland</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>742.5%</td>\n   <td>33.2%</td>\n   <td>Consumer Staples</td>\n   <td>90</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Teleflex</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>597.3%</td>\n   <td>-4.7%</td>\n   <td>Health Care</td>\n   <td>45</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>General Dynamics</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>445.0%</td>\n   <td>28.5%</td>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>65</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Boeing</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>440.0%</td>\n   <td>4.0%</td>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>35</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">HollyFrontier</a></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>427.3%</td>\n   <td>31.1%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>42</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Halliburton</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>417.8%</td>\n   <td>18.4%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>63</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tyler Technologies</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>347.3%</td>\n   <td>-11.3%</td>\n   <td>Information Technology</td>\n   <td>45</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<h5>Sources: IBD, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</h5>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Afraid Of Inflation? Four Ways To Protect Your Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfraid Of Inflation? Four Ways To Protect Your Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-14 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The scare of inflation is threatening the S&amp;P 500. But if you know what to expect, signs of rising prices aren't always kryptonite to your portfolio. And that's if you should worry at all.</p>\n<p>It turns out S&amp;P 500 sectors follow a fairly predictable playbook in times of rising prices. If you're worried about inflation, S&amp;P 500 sectors like energy, materials and real estate provide some safety, analysts say. \"Investors have used the threat of a spike in inflation, and now the confirmation from ... surprise strength in headline and core Consumer Price Index readings, to take profits in stocks,\" said Sam Stovall, strategist at CFRA.</p>\n<p>But knowing the facts goes a long way in dealing with any potential market shocks, including inflation.</p>\n<h3>Know The Reality In Inflation Numbers</h3>\n<p>It's important to understand what inflation numbers are truly telling you before you panic. It seems like many S&amp;P 500 investors calmed down after digging into inflation numbers more closely. The world's most popular index jumped more than 1.2% Thursday, making up the bulk of Wednesday's 2% freak-out sell-off.</p>\n<p>At first glance, inflation numbers looked scary. The 4.2% jump in headline inflation and 3% rise in core inflation was much more than anyone thought. Core inflation hasn't jumped that fast on a year-over-year basis since 2008, Stovall says.</p>\n<p>But a big piece of the rise is due to the 21% jump in annualized used vehicle prices, says Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. And that jump is due to new vehicle shortages arising from a shortage in semiconductors. Backing out this short-term disruption, headline inflation was a much more normal 3.6%, he says. Meanwhile, the unusual 49.6% jump in April gasoline prices added to the distortion.</p>\n<p>The inflation number \"just doesn't hold up to scrutiny as a warning bell about inflation,\" Colas said.</p>\n<h3>Understand How The S&amp;P 500 Reacts To Inflation</h3>\n<p>Out-of-control inflation is widely feared. But times of lingering 5%-plus annual inflation are rare. Only twice since 1928 has U.S. inflation lingered: 1941 through 1951 and 1969 to 1982, Colas found.</p>\n<p>Were these periods devastating for the S&amp;P 500? Hardly. The S&amp;P 500 jumped 310% from 1941 to 1951, that's 121.1% adjusted for inflation, Colas found. Even in the 1969-to-1982 period, seen as a terrible time for inflation, the S&amp;P 500 actually rose 176%. Yes, that's a loss of 11.6% adjusted for inflation, but it's hardly catastrophic especially for those who enjoyed the 1980s bull.</p>\n<p>Inflation itself doesn't steer the S&amp;P 500. The reason for inflation matters more. Prices rose in the 1940s for \"good reasons\" like an post-war boom, Colas said. But in the 1970s, energy price hikes were largely a tax on the economy.</p>\n<p>\"Markets are volatile because they're not sure which sort of inflation we have at present, or what (if anything) the Federal Reserve may do to bring inflation down,\" Colas said. \"That's enough uncertainty to create the volatility we're seeing, but not enough to say equities will necessarily underperform inflation in the years to come.\"</p>\n<h3>Look To The 1970s For S&amp;P 500 Clues (But Not Gospel)</h3>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 investors like to look back at the 1970s for a playbook for inflation. And it wasn't pretty, but it's not as devastating as many think either. And there were actually places to make big gains.</p>\n<p>During the 1970s, the S&amp;P 500 posted an average monthly loss of 0.3%, Stovall says. But over the entire period, the S&amp;P 500 rose 17.2%. That's just 1.6% annualized, or a fraction of the S&amp;P 500's typical 10% yearly return. S&amp;P sectors, though, hold clues or how markets can shift, Stovall says.</p>\n<p>It turns out even during the \"bad\" inflation of the 1970s, only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors fell on an average monthly basis. That sole loser was financials, which lost 0.8% monthly on average during the 1970s.</p>\n<p>So where where the places to be? S&amp;P 50 energy, materials and real estate all posted average monthly gains of 1% or higher during the 1970s, Stovall says. Materials company <b>Nucor</b> gained 2,830% during the 1970s. That's more than any current S&amp;P 500 members did at the time. Meanwhile, energy firms <b>Schlumberger</b> and <b>Baker Hughes</b> jumped 1,032% and 856%, respectively, during the 1970s.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Sector</th>\n   <th>Average monthly return during the 1970s</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>1.6%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Materials</td>\n   <td>1.4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Real Estate</td>\n   <td>1.2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Communications Services</td>\n   <td>0.9</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Information Technology</td>\n   <td>0.7</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>0.6</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Consumer Discretionary</td>\n   <td>0.3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Utilities</td>\n   <td>0.1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Health Care</td>\n   <td>0.1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Consumer Staples</td>\n   <td>0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Financials</td>\n   <td>-0.8</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>-0.3</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<h5>Source: CFRA</h5>\n<h3>Don't Overlook S&amp;P 500 Commodity Strength</h3>\n<p>Digging deeper still, Stovall found robust gains in many commodities markets, even in the inflation-plagued 1970s.</p>\n<p>Gold and precious metals companies in the S&amp;P 500 posted average monthly gains of 3.9% in the 1970s. And aluminum companies rose 2% monthly followed by oil and gas drilling at 1.8%. And to some degree, investors are already nibbling on these areas. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is up 36.7% this year. That's the top run of any S&amp;P 500 sector. Meanwhile, the Materials Select Sector SPDR is up 20% year to date.</p>\n<p>Know, too, simply owning the S&amp;P 500 may not offer great exposure to areas that held up to inflation before. These sectors hold small weights in the S&amp;P 500. Energy holds just a 2.9% weight in the S&amp;P 500. Meanwhile, materials account for 2.9% and real estate 2.5%. ETFs can fill in the gaps.</p>\n<p>ETFs and exchange-traded notes, too, can offer inflation protection. The $60 billion in assets SPDR Gold Trust moves with the price of gold. The $3 billion in assets United States Oil Fund tracks the price of crude oil. And the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> TIPS Bond ETF tracks U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for inflation.</p>\n<p>But just know inflation, alone, doesn't determine S&amp;P 500 returns. \"Inflation is just <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> input into equity prices and returns, and on its own it explains very little about how stocks will do over the longer term,\" Colas says.</p>\n<h3>Top S&amp;P 500 Stocks In The 1970s</h3>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Company</th>\n   <th>Symbol</th>\n   <th>70's % ch.</th>\n   <th>Stock YTD % ch.</th>\n   <th>Sector</th>\n   <th>Composite Rating</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Nucor</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>2,830.3%</td>\n   <td>89.5%</td>\n   <td>Materials</td>\n   <td>99</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Schlumberger</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>1,031.7%</td>\n   <td>45.5%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>72</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Baker Hughes</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>856.4%</td>\n   <td>16.8%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>78</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Archer Daniels Midland</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>742.5%</td>\n   <td>33.2%</td>\n   <td>Consumer Staples</td>\n   <td>90</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Teleflex</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>597.3%</td>\n   <td>-4.7%</td>\n   <td>Health Care</td>\n   <td>45</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>General Dynamics</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>445.0%</td>\n   <td>28.5%</td>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>65</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Boeing</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>440.0%</td>\n   <td>4.0%</td>\n   <td>Industrials</td>\n   <td>35</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">HollyFrontier</a></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>427.3%</td>\n   <td>31.1%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>42</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Halliburton</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>417.8%</td>\n   <td>18.4%</td>\n   <td>Energy</td>\n   <td>63</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tyler Technologies</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td>347.3%</td>\n   <td>-11.3%</td>\n   <td>Information Technology</td>\n   <td>45</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<h5>Sources: IBD, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</h5>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135069756","content_text":"The scare of inflation is threatening the S&P 500. But if you know what to expect, signs of rising prices aren't always kryptonite to your portfolio. And that's if you should worry at all.\nIt turns out S&P 500 sectors follow a fairly predictable playbook in times of rising prices. If you're worried about inflation, S&P 500 sectors like energy, materials and real estate provide some safety, analysts say. \"Investors have used the threat of a spike in inflation, and now the confirmation from ... surprise strength in headline and core Consumer Price Index readings, to take profits in stocks,\" said Sam Stovall, strategist at CFRA.\nBut knowing the facts goes a long way in dealing with any potential market shocks, including inflation.\nKnow The Reality In Inflation Numbers\nIt's important to understand what inflation numbers are truly telling you before you panic. It seems like many S&P 500 investors calmed down after digging into inflation numbers more closely. The world's most popular index jumped more than 1.2% Thursday, making up the bulk of Wednesday's 2% freak-out sell-off.\nAt first glance, inflation numbers looked scary. The 4.2% jump in headline inflation and 3% rise in core inflation was much more than anyone thought. Core inflation hasn't jumped that fast on a year-over-year basis since 2008, Stovall says.\nBut a big piece of the rise is due to the 21% jump in annualized used vehicle prices, says Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. And that jump is due to new vehicle shortages arising from a shortage in semiconductors. Backing out this short-term disruption, headline inflation was a much more normal 3.6%, he says. Meanwhile, the unusual 49.6% jump in April gasoline prices added to the distortion.\nThe inflation number \"just doesn't hold up to scrutiny as a warning bell about inflation,\" Colas said.\nUnderstand How The S&P 500 Reacts To Inflation\nOut-of-control inflation is widely feared. But times of lingering 5%-plus annual inflation are rare. Only twice since 1928 has U.S. inflation lingered: 1941 through 1951 and 1969 to 1982, Colas found.\nWere these periods devastating for the S&P 500? Hardly. The S&P 500 jumped 310% from 1941 to 1951, that's 121.1% adjusted for inflation, Colas found. Even in the 1969-to-1982 period, seen as a terrible time for inflation, the S&P 500 actually rose 176%. Yes, that's a loss of 11.6% adjusted for inflation, but it's hardly catastrophic especially for those who enjoyed the 1980s bull.\nInflation itself doesn't steer the S&P 500. The reason for inflation matters more. Prices rose in the 1940s for \"good reasons\" like an post-war boom, Colas said. But in the 1970s, energy price hikes were largely a tax on the economy.\n\"Markets are volatile because they're not sure which sort of inflation we have at present, or what (if anything) the Federal Reserve may do to bring inflation down,\" Colas said. \"That's enough uncertainty to create the volatility we're seeing, but not enough to say equities will necessarily underperform inflation in the years to come.\"\nLook To The 1970s For S&P 500 Clues (But Not Gospel)\nS&P 500 investors like to look back at the 1970s for a playbook for inflation. And it wasn't pretty, but it's not as devastating as many think either. And there were actually places to make big gains.\nDuring the 1970s, the S&P 500 posted an average monthly loss of 0.3%, Stovall says. But over the entire period, the S&P 500 rose 17.2%. That's just 1.6% annualized, or a fraction of the S&P 500's typical 10% yearly return. S&P sectors, though, hold clues or how markets can shift, Stovall says.\nIt turns out even during the \"bad\" inflation of the 1970s, only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors fell on an average monthly basis. That sole loser was financials, which lost 0.8% monthly on average during the 1970s.\nSo where where the places to be? S&P 50 energy, materials and real estate all posted average monthly gains of 1% or higher during the 1970s, Stovall says. Materials company Nucor gained 2,830% during the 1970s. That's more than any current S&P 500 members did at the time. Meanwhile, energy firms Schlumberger and Baker Hughes jumped 1,032% and 856%, respectively, during the 1970s.\n\n\n\nSector\nAverage monthly return during the 1970s\n\n\n\n\nEnergy\n1.6%\n\n\nMaterials\n1.4\n\n\nReal Estate\n1.2\n\n\nCommunications Services\n0.9\n\n\nInformation Technology\n0.7\n\n\nIndustrials\n0.6\n\n\nConsumer Discretionary\n0.3\n\n\nUtilities\n0.1\n\n\nHealth Care\n0.1\n\n\nConsumer Staples\n0\n\n\nFinancials\n-0.8\n\n\nS&P 500\n-0.3\n\n\n\nSource: CFRA\nDon't Overlook S&P 500 Commodity Strength\nDigging deeper still, Stovall found robust gains in many commodities markets, even in the inflation-plagued 1970s.\nGold and precious metals companies in the S&P 500 posted average monthly gains of 3.9% in the 1970s. And aluminum companies rose 2% monthly followed by oil and gas drilling at 1.8%. And to some degree, investors are already nibbling on these areas. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is up 36.7% this year. That's the top run of any S&P 500 sector. Meanwhile, the Materials Select Sector SPDR is up 20% year to date.\nKnow, too, simply owning the S&P 500 may not offer great exposure to areas that held up to inflation before. These sectors hold small weights in the S&P 500. Energy holds just a 2.9% weight in the S&P 500. Meanwhile, materials account for 2.9% and real estate 2.5%. ETFs can fill in the gaps.\nETFs and exchange-traded notes, too, can offer inflation protection. The $60 billion in assets SPDR Gold Trust moves with the price of gold. The $3 billion in assets United States Oil Fund tracks the price of crude oil. And the iShares TIPS Bond ETF tracks U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for inflation.\nBut just know inflation, alone, doesn't determine S&P 500 returns. \"Inflation is just one input into equity prices and returns, and on its own it explains very little about how stocks will do over the longer term,\" Colas says.\nTop S&P 500 Stocks In The 1970s\n\n\n\nCompany\nSymbol\n70's % ch.\nStock YTD % ch.\nSector\nComposite Rating\n\n\n\n\nNucor\n\n2,830.3%\n89.5%\nMaterials\n99\n\n\nSchlumberger\n\n1,031.7%\n45.5%\nEnergy\n72\n\n\nBaker Hughes\n\n856.4%\n16.8%\nEnergy\n78\n\n\nArcher Daniels Midland\n\n742.5%\n33.2%\nConsumer Staples\n90\n\n\nTeleflex\n\n597.3%\n-4.7%\nHealth Care\n45\n\n\nGeneral Dynamics\n\n445.0%\n28.5%\nIndustrials\n65\n\n\nBoeing\n\n440.0%\n4.0%\nIndustrials\n35\n\n\nHollyFrontier\n\n427.3%\n31.1%\nEnergy\n42\n\n\nHalliburton\n\n417.8%\n18.4%\nEnergy\n63\n\n\nTyler Technologies\n\n347.3%\n-11.3%\nInformation Technology\n45\n\n\n\nSources: IBD, S&P Global Market Intelligence","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107840269,"gmtCreate":1620470858851,"gmtModify":1704344163114,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment for the coin.thanks","listText":"Like and comment for the coin.thanks","text":"Like and comment for the coin.thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107840269","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122089368?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 15:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104207284,"gmtCreate":1620391375248,"gmtModify":1704342983081,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like amd comment for the coin.thanks","listText":"Like amd comment for the coin.thanks","text":"Like amd comment for the coin.thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104207284","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157328258?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul><p>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p>Some explanations:</p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul><p>Here is the model itself:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p>Final thoughts</p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company><strong>Seeking alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101877740,"gmtCreate":1619885119880,"gmtModify":1704336062487,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ready for the moon!!!","listText":"Ready for the moon!!!","text":"Ready for the moon!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101877740","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560280328484327","authorId":"3560280328484327","name":"McGreedy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96af4bcc46326043bb64926e01f6724c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560280328484327","idStr":"3560280328484327"},"content":"comment pls","text":"comment pls","html":"comment pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103839216,"gmtCreate":1619764146835,"gmtModify":1704272040395,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FAANG go go go!!! Bring Nasdaq up!!!","listText":"FAANG go go go!!! Bring Nasdaq up!!!","text":"FAANG go go go!!! Bring Nasdaq up!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103839216","repostId":"1153490597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375849864,"gmtCreate":1619326880958,"gmtModify":1704722504110,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go go go for the coins....","listText":"Go go go for the coins....","text":"Go go go for the coins....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375849864","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372730406,"gmtCreate":1619240551705,"gmtModify":1704721745308,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon..","listText":"To the moon..","text":"To the moon..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372730406","repostId":"1149578575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376721048,"gmtCreate":1619150540684,"gmtModify":1704720433590,"author":{"id":"3565865195004220","authorId":"3565865195004220","name":"BabyHuatHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ee3c00396b80f7a3b8f686f8cb8102","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565865195004220","idStr":"3565865195004220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Red seeaa...","listText":"Red seeaa...","text":"Red seeaa...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376721048","repostId":"1141178573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141178573","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1619147275,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141178573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden to float historic tax increase on investment gains for the rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141178573","media":"Reuters","summary":"President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the l","content":"<p>President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers, sources familiar with the proposal said.</p><p>The plan is part of the White House's push for a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax system to make rich people and big companies pay more and help foot the bill for Biden's ambitious economic agenda. The proposal calls for increasing the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, the sources said this week. It would also nearly double taxes on capital gains to 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million.</p><p>That would be the highest tax rate on investment gains, which are mostly paid by the wealthiest Americans, since the 1920s. The rate has not exceeded 33.8% in the post-World War Two era.</p><p>News of the proposal- which was a staple of Biden’s presidential campaign platform - triggered sharp declines on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index(.SPX)down 1% in early afternoon, its steepest drop in more than a month.</p><p>Any such hike would need to go through Congress, where Biden's Democratic Party holds narrow majorities and is unlikely to win support from Republicans. It is also unclear if it would have the unanimous backing of congressional Democrats, which would be essential in the Senate where each party holds 50 seats.</p><p>\"If it had a chance of passing, we'd be down 2,000 points,\" said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member at hedge fund Great Hill Capital LLC, referring to stock market indexes.</p><p>Sources said details would be released next week before Biden's address to Congress on Wednesday. Details of the plan may change in coming days. White House officials are debating other possible tax increases that could ultimately be included such as capping deductions for wealthy taxpayers or increasing the estate tax, sources told Reuters.</p><p>Biden has promised not to raise taxes on households earning less than $400,000.</p><p>Tax details related to the plan, which has been in the works for months, were first reported by the New York Times on Thursday morning.</p><p>White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the president would discuss his \"American Families Plan\" during his speech to Congress but declined to comment on any details.</p><p>She said the administration had not yet finalized funding plans but stressed Biden's determination to make the wealthy and companies pay for new programs.</p><p>\"His view is that that should be on the backs ... of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it and corporations and businesses who can afford it,\" Psaki said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac23774dc0b788c1569e6bfa03da03d\" tg-width=\"6754\" tg-height=\"4701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90dcdfac3c849d0483fcf1eaee00814\" tg-width=\"7824\" tg-height=\"5219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac23774dc0b788c1569e6bfa03da03d\" tg-width=\"6754\" tg-height=\"4701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Cross Hall at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Brenner</i></p><p>She said Biden and his economic team did not believe the measures would have a negative impact on investment in the United States.</p><p>Yields on Treasuries, which move in the opposite direction to their price, fell to the day's low.</p><p><b>CAPITAL GAINS</b></p><p>Biden's new plan, likely to generate about $1 trillion, comes after a $2.3 trillion jobs and infrastructure proposal that has already run into stiff opposition from Republicans. They generally support funding infrastructure projects but oppose Biden's inclusion of priorities like expanding eldercare and asking corporate America to pay the tab.</p><p>Tax hikes on the wealthy could harden Republicans' resistance against Biden's latest \"human\" infrastructure plan, forcing Democrats to consider pushing it - or least some of the measures - through Congress using a party-line budget vote known as reconciliation.</p><p>Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia who wields outsize power due to the party's slim majority, said recently said he was wary of expanding the use of reconciliation.</p><p>Biden's proposal should be viewed as an aggressive negotiating tactic, said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p>\"You should expect that you will get at least initially the biggest, baddest, most progressive policy proposals with the understanding that they won't get everything they want but define the scope of the negotiation. Maybe Biden doesn’t get 39%, he will get 29%\" tax rate, he said.</p><p>Wealthy Americans could face an overall federal capital gains tax rate of 43.4% including the 3.8% net investment tax on individuals with income of $200,000 or more ($250,000 married filing jointly). The latter helps fund the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare.</p><p>Currently, those earning more than $200,000 pay a capital gains rate of about 23.8% including the Obamacare net investment tax instituted as part of that law. For tax year 2021, the top marginal tax rate remains 37% for individual single taxpayers with incomes greater than $523,600 and $628,300 for married couples filing jointly.</p><p>Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation, said the proposal would put U.S. capital gains taxes at the top of the global charts. Average capital gains taxes in Europe are around 19.3%, and the highest rate there is in Denmark, which collects 42%. France and Finland charge 34%.</p><p>For residents of some states and cities that assess their own capital gains levy, Biden’s plan would push the total capital gains rate to more than 50%, York said. The rate would rise to 56.7% in California, 68.2% in New York City and 57.3% in Portland, Oregon, York said.</p><p><b>Goldman Says \"No Surprise\" In Biden Cap Gains Proposal, Sees Congress Settling On 28% Tax Rate</b></p><p>Today the market freaked out when Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration will propose to tax capital gains at the top ordinary income tax rate (39.6%, or 43.4% when the existing 3.8% tax on net investment income tax is added).</p><p>Well, according to Goldman, this is nothing more than the latest pipe dream trial balloon from progressives, one which won't actually take place and instead has been floated to set the negotiation \"ask\", with Goldman expecting that<b>\"Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.\"</b>As such there are no actual \"surprises\" in the proposal which has been floated in this exact format previously, and while it remains unclear when the tax rate increase would be effective, the bank's economists \"think it is unlikely to apply to gains realized before May, and an increase effective Jan. 1, 2022 is more likely.\"</p><p>1.Bloomberg hasreportedthat the Biden Administration will propose to raise the federal capital gains tax rate to 39.6%, also the top marginal income tax rate under President Biden’s proposal. In addition to 3.8% tax on net investment income that Congress established in 2009, the combined rate would be 43.4%.<b>We had expected the President to propose this as part of his “American Families Plan” and the proposal comes as no surprise.</b>This proposal would apply to taxpayers with annual incomes over $1 million, and would likely also apply to qualified dividends, which are currently taxed at the same rate as capital gains. We note that the Biden campaign also proposed eliminating the step-up in basis on inherited assets, which would result in much larger taxable gains on those assets once sold.</p><p><b>2. We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase.</b>While it is possible that Congress might pass the proposal in its entirety,<b>we think a moderated version is more likely in light of the razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. At 43.4%, long-term capital gains would be taxed at the highest rate in the more than 100 years since Congress established the income tax. A 28% rate looks most likely, in our view, as it is roughly halfway between the current rate and Biden’s likely proposal.</b>This is also the rate that President Reagan and a Democratic House settled on a few decades ago when raising the tax from 20%.</p><p>3. The issue will likely remain in flux over the next several months. We expect President Biden to discuss the issue among many other topics when he addresses a joint session of Congress on April 28. By early May, the Biden Administration might also release its full fiscal year 2022 budget submission to Congress, which would provide more details on tax proposals including capital gains. However, the timing of this release remains unclear. In the interim,<b>comments from centrist Senate Democrats, such as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.),could clarify where key swing voters might come out on the issue</b>.</p><p>4. It is unclear when the higher rate would be effective, but we see three main options.</p><ul><li>First, Congress has occasionally made tax policies effective as of the date when the bill is introduced in the House of Representatives. This would likely be no earlier than May.</li><li>A second option would be to make the higher tax rate effective for gains realized after the bill is enacted into law, which we think will be sometime between July and September.</li><li>The third option would be an increase effective on January 1, 2022. We note that the last time Congress legislated an increase in the rate, the policy became law in October 1986 but the increase did not take effect until January 1987.</li></ul><p>While a retroactive increase cannot be ruled out entirely, we believe it is very unlikely that it would apply to gains realized before May 2021 (at earliest).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden to float historic tax increase on investment gains for the rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden to float historic tax increase on investment gains for the rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 11:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers, sources familiar with the proposal said.</p><p>The plan is part of the White House's push for a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax system to make rich people and big companies pay more and help foot the bill for Biden's ambitious economic agenda. The proposal calls for increasing the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, the sources said this week. It would also nearly double taxes on capital gains to 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million.</p><p>That would be the highest tax rate on investment gains, which are mostly paid by the wealthiest Americans, since the 1920s. The rate has not exceeded 33.8% in the post-World War Two era.</p><p>News of the proposal- which was a staple of Biden’s presidential campaign platform - triggered sharp declines on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index(.SPX)down 1% in early afternoon, its steepest drop in more than a month.</p><p>Any such hike would need to go through Congress, where Biden's Democratic Party holds narrow majorities and is unlikely to win support from Republicans. It is also unclear if it would have the unanimous backing of congressional Democrats, which would be essential in the Senate where each party holds 50 seats.</p><p>\"If it had a chance of passing, we'd be down 2,000 points,\" said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member at hedge fund Great Hill Capital LLC, referring to stock market indexes.</p><p>Sources said details would be released next week before Biden's address to Congress on Wednesday. Details of the plan may change in coming days. White House officials are debating other possible tax increases that could ultimately be included such as capping deductions for wealthy taxpayers or increasing the estate tax, sources told Reuters.</p><p>Biden has promised not to raise taxes on households earning less than $400,000.</p><p>Tax details related to the plan, which has been in the works for months, were first reported by the New York Times on Thursday morning.</p><p>White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the president would discuss his \"American Families Plan\" during his speech to Congress but declined to comment on any details.</p><p>She said the administration had not yet finalized funding plans but stressed Biden's determination to make the wealthy and companies pay for new programs.</p><p>\"His view is that that should be on the backs ... of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it and corporations and businesses who can afford it,\" Psaki said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac23774dc0b788c1569e6bfa03da03d\" tg-width=\"6754\" tg-height=\"4701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90dcdfac3c849d0483fcf1eaee00814\" tg-width=\"7824\" tg-height=\"5219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac23774dc0b788c1569e6bfa03da03d\" tg-width=\"6754\" tg-height=\"4701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Cross Hall at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Brenner</i></p><p>She said Biden and his economic team did not believe the measures would have a negative impact on investment in the United States.</p><p>Yields on Treasuries, which move in the opposite direction to their price, fell to the day's low.</p><p><b>CAPITAL GAINS</b></p><p>Biden's new plan, likely to generate about $1 trillion, comes after a $2.3 trillion jobs and infrastructure proposal that has already run into stiff opposition from Republicans. They generally support funding infrastructure projects but oppose Biden's inclusion of priorities like expanding eldercare and asking corporate America to pay the tab.</p><p>Tax hikes on the wealthy could harden Republicans' resistance against Biden's latest \"human\" infrastructure plan, forcing Democrats to consider pushing it - or least some of the measures - through Congress using a party-line budget vote known as reconciliation.</p><p>Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia who wields outsize power due to the party's slim majority, said recently said he was wary of expanding the use of reconciliation.</p><p>Biden's proposal should be viewed as an aggressive negotiating tactic, said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p>\"You should expect that you will get at least initially the biggest, baddest, most progressive policy proposals with the understanding that they won't get everything they want but define the scope of the negotiation. Maybe Biden doesn’t get 39%, he will get 29%\" tax rate, he said.</p><p>Wealthy Americans could face an overall federal capital gains tax rate of 43.4% including the 3.8% net investment tax on individuals with income of $200,000 or more ($250,000 married filing jointly). The latter helps fund the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare.</p><p>Currently, those earning more than $200,000 pay a capital gains rate of about 23.8% including the Obamacare net investment tax instituted as part of that law. For tax year 2021, the top marginal tax rate remains 37% for individual single taxpayers with incomes greater than $523,600 and $628,300 for married couples filing jointly.</p><p>Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation, said the proposal would put U.S. capital gains taxes at the top of the global charts. Average capital gains taxes in Europe are around 19.3%, and the highest rate there is in Denmark, which collects 42%. France and Finland charge 34%.</p><p>For residents of some states and cities that assess their own capital gains levy, Biden’s plan would push the total capital gains rate to more than 50%, York said. The rate would rise to 56.7% in California, 68.2% in New York City and 57.3% in Portland, Oregon, York said.</p><p><b>Goldman Says \"No Surprise\" In Biden Cap Gains Proposal, Sees Congress Settling On 28% Tax Rate</b></p><p>Today the market freaked out when Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration will propose to tax capital gains at the top ordinary income tax rate (39.6%, or 43.4% when the existing 3.8% tax on net investment income tax is added).</p><p>Well, according to Goldman, this is nothing more than the latest pipe dream trial balloon from progressives, one which won't actually take place and instead has been floated to set the negotiation \"ask\", with Goldman expecting that<b>\"Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.\"</b>As such there are no actual \"surprises\" in the proposal which has been floated in this exact format previously, and while it remains unclear when the tax rate increase would be effective, the bank's economists \"think it is unlikely to apply to gains realized before May, and an increase effective Jan. 1, 2022 is more likely.\"</p><p>1.Bloomberg hasreportedthat the Biden Administration will propose to raise the federal capital gains tax rate to 39.6%, also the top marginal income tax rate under President Biden’s proposal. In addition to 3.8% tax on net investment income that Congress established in 2009, the combined rate would be 43.4%.<b>We had expected the President to propose this as part of his “American Families Plan” and the proposal comes as no surprise.</b>This proposal would apply to taxpayers with annual incomes over $1 million, and would likely also apply to qualified dividends, which are currently taxed at the same rate as capital gains. We note that the Biden campaign also proposed eliminating the step-up in basis on inherited assets, which would result in much larger taxable gains on those assets once sold.</p><p><b>2. We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase.</b>While it is possible that Congress might pass the proposal in its entirety,<b>we think a moderated version is more likely in light of the razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. At 43.4%, long-term capital gains would be taxed at the highest rate in the more than 100 years since Congress established the income tax. A 28% rate looks most likely, in our view, as it is roughly halfway between the current rate and Biden’s likely proposal.</b>This is also the rate that President Reagan and a Democratic House settled on a few decades ago when raising the tax from 20%.</p><p>3. The issue will likely remain in flux over the next several months. We expect President Biden to discuss the issue among many other topics when he addresses a joint session of Congress on April 28. By early May, the Biden Administration might also release its full fiscal year 2022 budget submission to Congress, which would provide more details on tax proposals including capital gains. However, the timing of this release remains unclear. In the interim,<b>comments from centrist Senate Democrats, such as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.),could clarify where key swing voters might come out on the issue</b>.</p><p>4. It is unclear when the higher rate would be effective, but we see three main options.</p><ul><li>First, Congress has occasionally made tax policies effective as of the date when the bill is introduced in the House of Representatives. This would likely be no earlier than May.</li><li>A second option would be to make the higher tax rate effective for gains realized after the bill is enacted into law, which we think will be sometime between July and September.</li><li>The third option would be an increase effective on January 1, 2022. We note that the last time Congress legislated an increase in the rate, the policy became law in October 1986 but the increase did not take effect until January 1987.</li></ul><p>While a retroactive increase cannot be ruled out entirely, we believe it is very unlikely that it would apply to gains realized before May 2021 (at earliest).</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141178573","content_text":"President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers, sources familiar with the proposal said.The plan is part of the White House's push for a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax system to make rich people and big companies pay more and help foot the bill for Biden's ambitious economic agenda. The proposal calls for increasing the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, the sources said this week. It would also nearly double taxes on capital gains to 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million.That would be the highest tax rate on investment gains, which are mostly paid by the wealthiest Americans, since the 1920s. The rate has not exceeded 33.8% in the post-World War Two era.News of the proposal- which was a staple of Biden’s presidential campaign platform - triggered sharp declines on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500 index(.SPX)down 1% in early afternoon, its steepest drop in more than a month.Any such hike would need to go through Congress, where Biden's Democratic Party holds narrow majorities and is unlikely to win support from Republicans. It is also unclear if it would have the unanimous backing of congressional Democrats, which would be essential in the Senate where each party holds 50 seats.\"If it had a chance of passing, we'd be down 2,000 points,\" said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member at hedge fund Great Hill Capital LLC, referring to stock market indexes.Sources said details would be released next week before Biden's address to Congress on Wednesday. Details of the plan may change in coming days. White House officials are debating other possible tax increases that could ultimately be included such as capping deductions for wealthy taxpayers or increasing the estate tax, sources told Reuters.Biden has promised not to raise taxes on households earning less than $400,000.Tax details related to the plan, which has been in the works for months, were first reported by the New York Times on Thursday morning.White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the president would discuss his \"American Families Plan\" during his speech to Congress but declined to comment on any details.She said the administration had not yet finalized funding plans but stressed Biden's determination to make the wealthy and companies pay for new programs.\"His view is that that should be on the backs ... of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it and corporations and businesses who can afford it,\" Psaki said.U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Cross Hall at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2021. REUTERS/Tom BrennerShe said Biden and his economic team did not believe the measures would have a negative impact on investment in the United States.Yields on Treasuries, which move in the opposite direction to their price, fell to the day's low.CAPITAL GAINSBiden's new plan, likely to generate about $1 trillion, comes after a $2.3 trillion jobs and infrastructure proposal that has already run into stiff opposition from Republicans. They generally support funding infrastructure projects but oppose Biden's inclusion of priorities like expanding eldercare and asking corporate America to pay the tab.Tax hikes on the wealthy could harden Republicans' resistance against Biden's latest \"human\" infrastructure plan, forcing Democrats to consider pushing it - or least some of the measures - through Congress using a party-line budget vote known as reconciliation.Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia who wields outsize power due to the party's slim majority, said recently said he was wary of expanding the use of reconciliation.Biden's proposal should be viewed as an aggressive negotiating tactic, said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Hermes.\"You should expect that you will get at least initially the biggest, baddest, most progressive policy proposals with the understanding that they won't get everything they want but define the scope of the negotiation. Maybe Biden doesn’t get 39%, he will get 29%\" tax rate, he said.Wealthy Americans could face an overall federal capital gains tax rate of 43.4% including the 3.8% net investment tax on individuals with income of $200,000 or more ($250,000 married filing jointly). The latter helps fund the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare.Currently, those earning more than $200,000 pay a capital gains rate of about 23.8% including the Obamacare net investment tax instituted as part of that law. For tax year 2021, the top marginal tax rate remains 37% for individual single taxpayers with incomes greater than $523,600 and $628,300 for married couples filing jointly.Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation, said the proposal would put U.S. capital gains taxes at the top of the global charts. Average capital gains taxes in Europe are around 19.3%, and the highest rate there is in Denmark, which collects 42%. France and Finland charge 34%.For residents of some states and cities that assess their own capital gains levy, Biden’s plan would push the total capital gains rate to more than 50%, York said. The rate would rise to 56.7% in California, 68.2% in New York City and 57.3% in Portland, Oregon, York said.Goldman Says \"No Surprise\" In Biden Cap Gains Proposal, Sees Congress Settling On 28% Tax RateToday the market freaked out when Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration will propose to tax capital gains at the top ordinary income tax rate (39.6%, or 43.4% when the existing 3.8% tax on net investment income tax is added).Well, according to Goldman, this is nothing more than the latest pipe dream trial balloon from progressives, one which won't actually take place and instead has been floated to set the negotiation \"ask\", with Goldman expecting that\"Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.\"As such there are no actual \"surprises\" in the proposal which has been floated in this exact format previously, and while it remains unclear when the tax rate increase would be effective, the bank's economists \"think it is unlikely to apply to gains realized before May, and an increase effective Jan. 1, 2022 is more likely.\"1.Bloomberg hasreportedthat the Biden Administration will propose to raise the federal capital gains tax rate to 39.6%, also the top marginal income tax rate under President Biden’s proposal. In addition to 3.8% tax on net investment income that Congress established in 2009, the combined rate would be 43.4%.We had expected the President to propose this as part of his “American Families Plan” and the proposal comes as no surprise.This proposal would apply to taxpayers with annual incomes over $1 million, and would likely also apply to qualified dividends, which are currently taxed at the same rate as capital gains. We note that the Biden campaign also proposed eliminating the step-up in basis on inherited assets, which would result in much larger taxable gains on those assets once sold.2. We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase.While it is possible that Congress might pass the proposal in its entirety,we think a moderated version is more likely in light of the razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. At 43.4%, long-term capital gains would be taxed at the highest rate in the more than 100 years since Congress established the income tax. A 28% rate looks most likely, in our view, as it is roughly halfway between the current rate and Biden’s likely proposal.This is also the rate that President Reagan and a Democratic House settled on a few decades ago when raising the tax from 20%.3. The issue will likely remain in flux over the next several months. We expect President Biden to discuss the issue among many other topics when he addresses a joint session of Congress on April 28. By early May, the Biden Administration might also release its full fiscal year 2022 budget submission to Congress, which would provide more details on tax proposals including capital gains. However, the timing of this release remains unclear. In the interim,comments from centrist Senate Democrats, such as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.),could clarify where key swing voters might come out on the issue.4. It is unclear when the higher rate would be effective, but we see three main options.First, Congress has occasionally made tax policies effective as of the date when the bill is introduced in the House of Representatives. This would likely be no earlier than May.A second option would be to make the higher tax rate effective for gains realized after the bill is enacted into law, which we think will be sometime between July and September.The third option would be an increase effective on January 1, 2022. We note that the last time Congress legislated an increase in the rate, the policy became law in October 1986 but the increase did not take effect until January 1987.While a retroactive increase cannot be ruled out entirely, we believe it is very unlikely that it would apply to gains realized before May 2021 (at earliest).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}