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JoshTan
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2021-09-11
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Supply bottlenecks keep heat on U.S. producer prices
Producer prices increase 0.7% in August PPI accelerates 8.3% on year-on-year basis Core PPI gains 0.
Supply bottlenecks keep heat on U.S. producer prices
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2021-09-07
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2021-09-05
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Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do
Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
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2021-08-04
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JoshTan
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2021-07-28
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Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.
Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-qu
Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.
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2021-07-28
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2021-07-26
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2021-07-25
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High inflation is eroding households' purchasing power, contributing to the downgrading of economic growth estimates for the third quarter.</p>\n<p>\"Inflation continues to see the impact of pandemic effects including strong demand and supply constraints,\" said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. \"The demand impact will likely fade over coming months. But there is more risk from supply chains, if they continue to be disrupted by virus outbreaks.\"</p>\n<p>The producer price index for final demand rose 0.7% last month after two straight monthly increases of 1.0%. The gain was led by a 0.7% advance in services following a 1.1% jump in July.</p>\n<p>Trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, accounted for two-thirds of the broad rise in services. Goods prices jumped 1.0% after climbing 0.6% in July. In the 12 months through August, the PPI accelerated 8.3%, the biggest year-on-year advance since November 2010 when the series was revamped, after surging 7.8% in July.</p>\n<p>Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.6% on a monthly basis and rising 8.2% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.</p>\n<p>Though surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of prices paid by manufacturers and services industries fell significantly in August, they remained elevated. Factories and services providers still struggled to secure labor and raw materials, and faced logistics delays.</p>\n<p>This was corroborated by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday compiled from information collected on or before Aug. 30 showing \"contacts reported generally higher input prices but, as with labor, they were mostly concerned about getting the supplies they needed versus the price.\"</p>\n<p>Very low inventory levels because of the supply bottlenecks have allowed producers to easily pass on the higher costs to consumers. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, increased 3.6% in the 12 months through July after a similar gain in June.</p>\n<p>High inflation and supply constraints, which tanked motor vehicle sales in August, have prompted economists to slash their third-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates to as low as a 3.5% annualized rate from as high as 8.25%. The economy grew at a 6.6% rate in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>\"The danger with inflation is once prices go up, they don't go back down and the economy and producers and consumers all have to live in a costlier world where many don't have the means to do more than just barely survive,\" said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.</p>\n<p>But inflation is likely nearing its peak. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices rose 0.3%, the smallest gain since last November. The so-called core PPI shot up 0.9% in July.</p>\n<p>In the 12 months through August, the core PPI accelerated 6.3%. That was the largest rise since the government introduced the series in August 2014 and followed a 6.1% increase in July.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply bottlenecks keep heat on U.S. producer prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply bottlenecks keep heat on U.S. producer prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-10 22:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>Producer prices increase 0.7% in August</li>\n <li>PPI accelerates 8.3% on year-on-year basis</li>\n <li>Core PPI gains 0.3%; rises 6.3% year-on-year</li>\n</ul>\n<p>WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased solidly in August, leading to the biggest annual gain in nearly 11 years, suggesting that high inflation is likely to persist for a while as the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic continues to pressure supply chains.</p>\n<p>There are, however, signs that inflation could be nearing its peak, with the report from the Labor Department on Friday showing underlying producer prices rising at their slowest pace in nine months in August. High inflation is eroding households' purchasing power, contributing to the downgrading of economic growth estimates for the third quarter.</p>\n<p>\"Inflation continues to see the impact of pandemic effects including strong demand and supply constraints,\" said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. \"The demand impact will likely fade over coming months. But there is more risk from supply chains, if they continue to be disrupted by virus outbreaks.\"</p>\n<p>The producer price index for final demand rose 0.7% last month after two straight monthly increases of 1.0%. The gain was led by a 0.7% advance in services following a 1.1% jump in July.</p>\n<p>Trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, accounted for two-thirds of the broad rise in services. Goods prices jumped 1.0% after climbing 0.6% in July. In the 12 months through August, the PPI accelerated 8.3%, the biggest year-on-year advance since November 2010 when the series was revamped, after surging 7.8% in July.</p>\n<p>Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.6% on a monthly basis and rising 8.2% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.</p>\n<p>Though surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of prices paid by manufacturers and services industries fell significantly in August, they remained elevated. Factories and services providers still struggled to secure labor and raw materials, and faced logistics delays.</p>\n<p>This was corroborated by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday compiled from information collected on or before Aug. 30 showing \"contacts reported generally higher input prices but, as with labor, they were mostly concerned about getting the supplies they needed versus the price.\"</p>\n<p>Very low inventory levels because of the supply bottlenecks have allowed producers to easily pass on the higher costs to consumers. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, increased 3.6% in the 12 months through July after a similar gain in June.</p>\n<p>High inflation and supply constraints, which tanked motor vehicle sales in August, have prompted economists to slash their third-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates to as low as a 3.5% annualized rate from as high as 8.25%. The economy grew at a 6.6% rate in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>\"The danger with inflation is once prices go up, they don't go back down and the economy and producers and consumers all have to live in a costlier world where many don't have the means to do more than just barely survive,\" said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.</p>\n<p>But inflation is likely nearing its peak. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices rose 0.3%, the smallest gain since last November. The so-called core PPI shot up 0.9% in July.</p>\n<p>In the 12 months through August, the core PPI accelerated 6.3%. That was the largest rise since the government introduced the series in August 2014 and followed a 6.1% increase in July.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166137557","content_text":"Producer prices increase 0.7% in August\nPPI accelerates 8.3% on year-on-year basis\nCore PPI gains 0.3%; rises 6.3% year-on-year\n\nWASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased solidly in August, leading to the biggest annual gain in nearly 11 years, suggesting that high inflation is likely to persist for a while as the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic continues to pressure supply chains.\nThere are, however, signs that inflation could be nearing its peak, with the report from the Labor Department on Friday showing underlying producer prices rising at their slowest pace in nine months in August. High inflation is eroding households' purchasing power, contributing to the downgrading of economic growth estimates for the third quarter.\n\"Inflation continues to see the impact of pandemic effects including strong demand and supply constraints,\" said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. \"The demand impact will likely fade over coming months. But there is more risk from supply chains, if they continue to be disrupted by virus outbreaks.\"\nThe producer price index for final demand rose 0.7% last month after two straight monthly increases of 1.0%. The gain was led by a 0.7% advance in services following a 1.1% jump in July.\nTrade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, accounted for two-thirds of the broad rise in services. Goods prices jumped 1.0% after climbing 0.6% in July. In the 12 months through August, the PPI accelerated 8.3%, the biggest year-on-year advance since November 2010 when the series was revamped, after surging 7.8% in July.\nEconomists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.6% on a monthly basis and rising 8.2% year-on-year.\nU.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.\nThough surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of prices paid by manufacturers and services industries fell significantly in August, they remained elevated. Factories and services providers still struggled to secure labor and raw materials, and faced logistics delays.\nThis was corroborated by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday compiled from information collected on or before Aug. 30 showing \"contacts reported generally higher input prices but, as with labor, they were mostly concerned about getting the supplies they needed versus the price.\"\nVery low inventory levels because of the supply bottlenecks have allowed producers to easily pass on the higher costs to consumers. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, increased 3.6% in the 12 months through July after a similar gain in June.\nHigh inflation and supply constraints, which tanked motor vehicle sales in August, have prompted economists to slash their third-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates to as low as a 3.5% annualized rate from as high as 8.25%. The economy grew at a 6.6% rate in the second quarter.\n\"The danger with inflation is once prices go up, they don't go back down and the economy and producers and consumers all have to live in a costlier world where many don't have the means to do more than just barely survive,\" said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.\nBut inflation is likely nearing its peak. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices rose 0.3%, the smallest gain since last November. The so-called core PPI shot up 0.9% in July.\nIn the 12 months through August, the core PPI accelerated 6.3%. That was the largest rise since the government introduced the series in August 2014 and followed a 6.1% increase in July.\n(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880831617,"gmtCreate":1631029754539,"gmtModify":1676530448546,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880831617","repostId":"2165849354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814548021,"gmtCreate":1630850853763,"gmtModify":1676530405786,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like & comment ","listText":"Pls like & comment ","text":"Pls like & comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814548021","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157895022?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p>\n<p>That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p>\n<p>Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p>\n<p>There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p>\n<p>So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p>\n<p>Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p>\n<p>It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p>\n<p>Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p>\n<p>To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p>\n<p>The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p>\n<p>When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p>\n<p>“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p>\n<p>Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p>\n<p>Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p>\n<p>“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p>\n<p>You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p>\n<p>“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p>\n<p>His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p>\n<p>This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p>\n<p>“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p>\n<p>In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p>\n<p>“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p>\n<p>Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p>\n<p>As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p>\n<p>“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p>\n<p>First, be long.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p>\n<p>One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p>\n<p>Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p>\n<p>He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p>\n<p>He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p>\n<p>He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p>\n<p>As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p>\n<p>Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p>\n<p>He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p>\n<p><b>A few drawbacks</b></p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p>\n<p>Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p>\n<p>“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p>\n<p>Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-05 10:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807185876,"gmtCreate":1628006483095,"gmtModify":1703499591891,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment ","listText":"Pls like and comment ","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807185876","repostId":"1171505764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803336742,"gmtCreate":1627411764786,"gmtModify":1703489435541,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like comment thx","listText":"Pls like comment thx","text":"Pls like comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803336742","repostId":"1108884592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108884592","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108884592?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108884592","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-qu","content":"<p>Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of iPhones, expected to be unveiled in September, that might be the real difference-maker.</p>\n<p>Apple’s recent rally has not erased concerns about the stock. Growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech generally and Apple (ticker: AAPL) in particular, with a specific focus on the fees Apple charges developers who distribute applications on the company’s App Store for iPhones, iPads, and Macs, is the obvious one. There are also worries about tough year-over-year comparisons, and some investors fear that the recently robust growth in Mac and iPads sales will slow as the economy returns to more normal conditions. Others are nervous that the next set of iPhones will provide only incremental improvements, and that demand could disappoint.</p>\n<p>But no one seems to be too worried about the earning themselves. The Wall Street consensus for the fiscal third quarter is for $72.9 billion in revenue and profits of $1 a share. Even analysts who are cautious about the stock think those numbers are too low. For instance, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan is projecting revenue of $77 billion, with profits of $1.05 a share, driven by strength across the company’s hardware portfolio. Mohan still has a Neutral rating and $160 price target on the stock, however, and cautions that the company faces tough comparisons in the quarters ahead given spikes in Mac and iPad sales during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>He’s got a point.In the March quarter, Apple’s sales surged 54%, driven by strong growth across the portfolio, with sales increases of 66% for iPhone, 70% for Macs, 79% for iPads, 25% for wearables, and 27% for Services. Street consensus estimates for the June quarter call for $34.2 billion in iPhone sales, $7.2 billion for iPads, $7.9 billion for Macs, $7.8 billion for wearables, home, and accessories, and $16.3 billion for services.</p>\n<p>The company did not provide detailed guidance for the quarter, but cautioned that sales could be reduced by as much as $4 billion due to a tight supply of Macs and iPads tied to component shortages.</p>\n<p>Still,Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple is headed for another across-the-board beat, driven by continued strong demand for iPhone 12, with particularly strong demand in China. “While the chip shortage was an overhang for Apple during the quarter, we believe the iPhone and Services strength in the quarter neutralized any short-term weakness that the Street was anticipating three months ago,” Ives writes. The analyst says Apple remains his favorite large-cap tech pick, with a “1-2 punch” of services and iPhone demand. He thinks the company can reach the $3 trillion market capitalization level in 2022, from just under $2.5 trillion now. Ives keeps his Outperform rating and $185 target price.</p>\n<p>Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley also reupped his Buy rating on Apple shares, while boosting his target price to $175, from $165. He likewise expects June quarter results to beat Street estimates. One interesting question is whether Apple will return to providing quarterly guidance, a practice the company suspended during the pandemic. If they do, Walkley says, expect the forecast to outstrip current Street projections.</p>\n<p>“Apple is well-positioned to continue to benefit from the 5G upgrade cycle, and we anticipate strong overall growth trends as 5G smartphones ramp and its installed base expands with higher-margins services revenue,” he writes. “Apple’s ecosystem approach, including an installed base that exceeds 1.65 billion devices globally and now over 1 billion iPhone users, should continue to generate strong services revenue.”</p>\n<p>But the big news might still be yet to come. Once the company navigates past earnings, Apple investors will zero in on the fall iPhone launch. (Let’s call it iPhone 13, although Apple hasn’t specifically named the new line.) Ives sees incremental improvements, including Lidar capability in all phones, which will improve their utility for augmented reality applications. More important is his observation that about 250 million of the installed base of nearly 1 billion iPhones are at least 3.5 years old and due for an upgrade.</p>\n<p>As Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has noted, Apple shares tend to outperform the market heading into the launch of new phones. There’s no reason to think this year will be any different. Expect a strong June quarter from Apple, with higher highs likely as we approach the fall.</p>\n<p>We can reassess after that.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why the Market May Already Be Looking Past Them.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:34 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-the-market-may-already-be-looking-past-them-51627260627?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108884592","content_text":"Apple shares recently surged to new all-time highs, amid heightened investor anticipation of June-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell on Tuesday. But it’s the launch of the next generation of iPhones, expected to be unveiled in September, that might be the real difference-maker.\nApple’s recent rally has not erased concerns about the stock. Growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech generally and Apple (ticker: AAPL) in particular, with a specific focus on the fees Apple charges developers who distribute applications on the company’s App Store for iPhones, iPads, and Macs, is the obvious one. There are also worries about tough year-over-year comparisons, and some investors fear that the recently robust growth in Mac and iPads sales will slow as the economy returns to more normal conditions. Others are nervous that the next set of iPhones will provide only incremental improvements, and that demand could disappoint.\nBut no one seems to be too worried about the earning themselves. The Wall Street consensus for the fiscal third quarter is for $72.9 billion in revenue and profits of $1 a share. Even analysts who are cautious about the stock think those numbers are too low. For instance, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan is projecting revenue of $77 billion, with profits of $1.05 a share, driven by strength across the company’s hardware portfolio. Mohan still has a Neutral rating and $160 price target on the stock, however, and cautions that the company faces tough comparisons in the quarters ahead given spikes in Mac and iPad sales during the pandemic.\nHe’s got a point.In the March quarter, Apple’s sales surged 54%, driven by strong growth across the portfolio, with sales increases of 66% for iPhone, 70% for Macs, 79% for iPads, 25% for wearables, and 27% for Services. Street consensus estimates for the June quarter call for $34.2 billion in iPhone sales, $7.2 billion for iPads, $7.9 billion for Macs, $7.8 billion for wearables, home, and accessories, and $16.3 billion for services.\nThe company did not provide detailed guidance for the quarter, but cautioned that sales could be reduced by as much as $4 billion due to a tight supply of Macs and iPads tied to component shortages.\nStill,Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple is headed for another across-the-board beat, driven by continued strong demand for iPhone 12, with particularly strong demand in China. “While the chip shortage was an overhang for Apple during the quarter, we believe the iPhone and Services strength in the quarter neutralized any short-term weakness that the Street was anticipating three months ago,” Ives writes. The analyst says Apple remains his favorite large-cap tech pick, with a “1-2 punch” of services and iPhone demand. He thinks the company can reach the $3 trillion market capitalization level in 2022, from just under $2.5 trillion now. Ives keeps his Outperform rating and $185 target price.\nCanaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley also reupped his Buy rating on Apple shares, while boosting his target price to $175, from $165. He likewise expects June quarter results to beat Street estimates. One interesting question is whether Apple will return to providing quarterly guidance, a practice the company suspended during the pandemic. If they do, Walkley says, expect the forecast to outstrip current Street projections.\n“Apple is well-positioned to continue to benefit from the 5G upgrade cycle, and we anticipate strong overall growth trends as 5G smartphones ramp and its installed base expands with higher-margins services revenue,” he writes. “Apple’s ecosystem approach, including an installed base that exceeds 1.65 billion devices globally and now over 1 billion iPhone users, should continue to generate strong services revenue.”\nBut the big news might still be yet to come. Once the company navigates past earnings, Apple investors will zero in on the fall iPhone launch. (Let’s call it iPhone 13, although Apple hasn’t specifically named the new line.) Ives sees incremental improvements, including Lidar capability in all phones, which will improve their utility for augmented reality applications. More important is his observation that about 250 million of the installed base of nearly 1 billion iPhones are at least 3.5 years old and due for an upgrade.\nAs Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has noted, Apple shares tend to outperform the market heading into the launch of new phones. There’s no reason to think this year will be any different. Expect a strong June quarter from Apple, with higher highs likely as we approach the fall.\nWe can reassess after that.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803336192,"gmtCreate":1627411579616,"gmtModify":1703489434569,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803336192","repostId":"1180394633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177403110,"gmtCreate":1627256107430,"gmtModify":1703485953982,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177403110","repostId":"2154328679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174744639,"gmtCreate":1627148141921,"gmtModify":1703484797585,"author":{"id":"3566284087239794","authorId":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorIdStr":"3566284087239794"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174744639","repostId":"1109439356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}