To The Moon

$QQQ 20270319 700.0 PUT$ 

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  

$QQQ 20270319 700.0 PUT$ 

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  

Broadcom (AVGO) reporting AI chip sales surging 143% YoY to ~$16B quarterly highlights its dominance in custom silicon (ASIC) and networking. Sitting ~25% off its peak at 18.9x forward earnings, the market is aggressively testing whether AVGO can clear Nvidia’s valuation benchmark amid macro rate headwinds. Core factors shaping the print: Custom Silicon Competition & Margins: Google deepening ties with Marvell threatens Broadcom’s historical ASIC exclusivity. A higher mix of Google TPU volumes—while growing top-line revenue—carries lower gross margins compared to proprietary GPU sales. Credit Risk in High-Rate Environments: Reports of seeking up to $80B in debt financing for Anthropic chip infrastructure have pushed credit-risk gauges higher. With the 10-year Treasury yield breaking 4.

What Worked in August: Defending Positions Without Giving Up Equity When initial support levels broke under tech multiples (QQQ) and short positions fell deep ITM, taking a direct loss or getting assigned at peak market panic was off the table. Instead, I executed a disciplined rolling framework: Rolling Down & Out: Closed troubled short put positions nearing expiry and reopened them at lower strike prices further out on the expiration calendar (30–45 DTE). Demanding Net Credit: Never rolled for a debit. Every roll captured additional premium, effectively lowering my break-even price while extending duration to let macro noise settle. Capitalizing on Volatility Spikes: Used elevated implied volatility (IV) during market dips to lock in rich option premiums, buying precious time for und

The threat of a strike by ~10,000 unionized workers at Micron’s Taiwan facilities marks a critical pivot in the memory narrative: supply risk is shifting overnight from "pricing cycles" to raw "operational bottlenecking." With memory names retreating (Micron -2.64%, SanDisk -1.90%, SK Hynix -2.31%, SOXL -6.10%), the market is digesting the immediate friction of lost production volume alongside structural market dynamics. Key factors driving the memory outlook: Production Risk vs. Contract Caps: Taiwan hosts a massive portion of Micron’s DRAM capacity. If production lines stall, Micron cannot capitalize on soaring HBM/DRAM spot prices—especially since its revenue is already locked into multi-year fixed contracts that cap short-term upside while leaving the downside vulnerable to output shor

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure ($NVDA,$MRVL, MU): After a sharp rate-induced pullback, AI hardware is stabilizing. Watch memory leaders like Micron as HBM3E spot prices maintain massive premiums, keeping underlying supply fundamentals tight despite macro duration drag.

The 10-year yield breaching 4.8% and rate-hike odds surging to 70% present a severe discount-rate shock to high-duration AI capex. When long-end yields rise alongside hawkish Fed rhetoric and crude above $90, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure bets from hyper-scalers like Microsoft ($41B capex) face immediate valuation compression. Key factors shaping portfolio strategy into payrolls: Discount Rate Valuation Friction: Discounting massive multi-year infrastructure spend at 4.8%+ compresses net present value models across AI pure-plays like Nvidia (-1.51%), Oracle (~-4%), and Nebius (-3.29%). Higher cost of debt forces a higher hurdle rate for AI return-on-investment. Energy-Fed Feedback Loop: Brent crude remaining above $90 for a third consecutive session directly fuels inflation expectati

Index Arbitrage vs. Core Fundamentals: While passive index inclusion forces temporary mechanical inflows, it does not alter underlying unit economics. Chasing closing spikes driven purely by index funds carries high structural risk of a post-rebalance mean reversion. The HBM3E Supply-Demand Paradox: Spot rates for 36GB HBM3E running at 4–5x contract prices (~$2,100) underscore severe near-term market tightness. However, incumbent suppliers like Micron (MU) and SK Hynix remain heavily bound by multi-year contract pricing, muting direct spot revenue pass-through.