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- JackXJackX
  ·2021-09-02
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  Is TSMC's price increase "taking advantage of the situation"?
  憋了十几年的台积电，最终还是决定涨价了。以16/12nm为分界线，16/12nm以下的高端制程价格上涨10%，成熟制程价格上涨15～20％，明年第一季开始生效。 “芯片荒”的大背景下，台积电公布上述决
  Is TSMC's price increase "taking advantage of the situation"?
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12:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is TSMC's price increase \"taking advantage of the situation\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154913810","media":"科工力量","summary":"憋了十几年的台积电，最终还是决定涨价了。以16/12nm为分界线，16/12nm以下的高端制程价格上涨10%，成熟制程价格上涨15～20％，明年第一季开始生效。\n“芯片荒”的大背景下，台积电公布上述决","content":"<p>TSMC, which has been holding back for more than ten years, finally decided to raise its price. Taking 16/12nm as the dividing line, the price of high-end processes below 16/12nm will increase by 10%, and the price of mature processes will increase by 15~20%, which will take effect in the first quarter of next year.</p><p>Under the background of \"chip shortage\", TSMC announced the above decision, which obviously added another fire to the anxious market. However, TSMC's decision to raise prices at the end was not \"taking advantage of the situation\", but a choice that had to be made under the pressure of many parties.</p><p>The general trend of the industry must not rise</p><p>When it comes to the price increase of electronic devices, many people think of manufacturers controlling production capacity, regulating market expectations and achieving better revenue. Floods, power outages and fires all seem to be reasonable reasons for reduced production capacity and increased product prices. Compared with these common price increase routines, TSMC is extremely restrained.</p><p>According to the Chinese Internet information records, TSMC's earliest price increase was in 2004. According to Zhongguancun Science and Technology's report, the price increase products at that time were 250nm, 180nm and 150nm process products, and the price increase was also 10%.</p><p>The slowdown of competition caused by the maturity of the process is the main reason for the price adjustment. Although these chips had been adopted by Nvidia, ATI, Texas Instruments and other manufacturers at that time to make mainstream electronic products. However, for upstream manufacturers, the foundry price is too stable, and the foundry capacity cannot be fully released.<b>In order to improve production efficiency and further open up the market, reasonable price increase has become an inevitable choice.</b></p><p>TSMC later raised prices across the board, still in 2008. The mainstream processes of the industry have also begun to enter the double-digit era of 65nm and 32nm. The corresponding R&D expenditure is also rising. Chen Junsheng, then deputy general manager of global business and marketing of TSMC, pointed out:</p><p>\"Based on the capital required for the investment of the 250nm process, when it comes to the 65nm process, the capital required may be 10 times that of the 250nm process; If it comes to the 32nm process, it may be nearly 14 times that of the 250nm micron process.\"</p><p>New processes requiring technical tackling, with high costs. The price of old products that can be mass-produced will inevitably fall. Therefore, TSMC raised its quotation for mature processes below 130nm.<b>This price increase in 2008 is also the first time in the history of TSMC to announce an increase in quotation.</b></p><p>It can be seen that whether to mobilize production capacity or feed back research and development. TSMC's price increase is very conservative and restrained compared with the whole industry. The external posture is also to declare the pros and cons with customers. Everyone discusses it, and both sides cooperate with the market fluctuations after the transitional price increase.</p><p>In fact, compared with its peers, TSMC's price increase is one step slower. From the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, companies like GlobalFoundries, PSMC, SMIC and UMC all issued notices of price increases. Liu Peizhen of Taiwan Province Economic Research Institute of China also said at the press conference of economic trend survey: \"The price increase of 8-inch fabs of UMC, World Advanced, Power Semiconductor and other manufacturers is as high as 50% compared with last year, and that of 12-inch fabs is as high as 30%.\"</p><p>Seeing competitors' price increases, TSMC can only follow the trend and maintain the company's follow-up production through appropriate increases.</p><p>Internally and externally trapped, have to rise</p><p>However, in this \"price increase tide\", TSMC also has its own ideas. One idea is to maintain your gross profit margin.</p><p>For giants in the upstream chip industry, high gross profit margin is the norm. In 2020, Intel's gross profit margin reached 56%, and Qualcomm's gross profit margin reached 60%, relying on patents. As a foundry, TSMC has a gross profit margin of more than 50%. However, judging from the financial report of the second quarter of this year, the gross profit margin only reached about 50%, down 3% compared with last year.</p><p><b>Investors will obviously not be satisfied with such data.</b>Charlie Chan, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that TSMC's gross profit margin may drop below 50% as early as next year. In view of the follow-up development of TSMC, he even gave a heavy hammer:</p><p>\"In the post-Moore era, costs are becoming too expensive, and TSMC will have to raise capital expenditure and bear the cost of falling profit margins to maintain the scale trend of chip manufacturing.\" In the face of investors' lowering expectations, TSMC is also trying to remedy it. Increasing the price of factory products across the board has become the fastest choice to raise gross profit margin and maintain high market expectations.</p><p>In addition to maintaining gross profit margin, TSMC is also facing global transformation at the production and operation level.</p><p>In May this year, TSMC's branch factory in Arizona, USA, started construction. Despite the long-term drought problem in the local area, which is not conducive to chip production. The local cost of building clean rooms is as high as $50 billion, which far exceeds TSMC's budget. TSMC still chose to rent 5,000 containers to move the whole clean room plant at its headquarters to its US branch plant.</p><p>Not only the American branch factory under construction, but also TSMC may build a branch factory in Dresden, Germany, for automobile chips, to compete with Bosch, GC and other manufacturers for the market cake. The Japanese government is also inviting TSMC to set up a semiconductor manufacturing joint venture company. TSMC will contribute 50%, and the remaining share will be funded by Sony and Denso, which will also solve the demand for automotive chips.</p><p><b>It can be seen that TSMC's factory-building strategy has changed from the original \"treasure island-based\" to the current \"global flowering\".</b>A large number of project construction has brought huge cost pressure to TSMC. TSMC's long-term goal, on the basis of maintaining profitability and promoting research and development, has also added a cost recovery. In order to solve the cost pressure, price increase is also the general trend.</p><p>Removing the business factors, from the industrial data alone, the situation of TSMC is not optimistic. Taking the upstream silicon material as an example, the price has risen from 80,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, an increase of 150%. The prices of corresponding metals such as copper have also skyrocketed. It is obviously unrealistic to ask TSMC to produce at the original price. After TSMC's price increase, silicon wafer manufacturers like Global Crystal have eased the revenue pressure.</p><p>TSMC, which is under pressure internally and externally, has become inevitable to raise its prices.</p><p>How far can you go after the price increase</p><p>After TSMC's price increase, the cost pressure has been passed on to downstream industries.</p><p>Take Apple's products as an example. After the news of TSMC's price increase is released, it is likely to affect the production of subsequent products. The corresponding industry panic even made the domestic media spread the news that \"the price of iPhone 13 increased due to TSMC\", completely ignoring the reality that this mobile phone has been mass-produced.</p><p>This kind of panic is obviously an intuitive manifestation of the \"price increase anxiety\" in the IC industry. As a direct customer of upstream foundries, TSMC's price increases have sent their production costs skyrocketing. However, the existing product scale of IC industry can't completely meet the continuously changing industry needs.<b>If the price of products in the chip industry continues to fluctuate, the road for the IC industry will be more difficult.</b></p><p>For TSMC, the leading party of price increase, this price increase is compared with the past. Without excellent performance endorsement, it also makes its market adjustment unconvincing. The purpose of this price increase is not for production and research and development. Instead, at the level of corporate financial reporting, maintain the basic gross profit margin.<b>For TSMC, it not only proves that the profitability of the company's business has declined, but is more likely to fail investors' expectations.</b>Judging from the current position of TSMC's number one market value in Asia, this is obviously not good news.</p><p>After the chip process enters 10nm, the technical difficulty of new product development will increase exponentially. TSMC, which relies on wafer foundry to make its home, does not currently have a high enough technical moat like Qualcomm and Intel.<b>TSMC's layout of global factory repair has also made enterprises abandon the cost control scheme established by the mainland and fall into the Red Sea of global capacity struggle.</b>If TSMC can't break the game at the chip technology level, no amount of price increase will be a drop in the bucket.</p><p>TSMC's price increase has become a \"kidnapping\" of TSMC by the industry and investors. How far can the \"kidnapped\" TSMC go? Only they know.</p>","source":"lsy1630558208345","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is TSMC's price increase \"taking advantage of the situation\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs TSMC's price increase \"taking advantage of the situation\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">科工力量</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 12:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TSMC, which has been holding back for more than ten years, finally decided to raise its price. Taking 16/12nm as the dividing line, the price of high-end processes below 16/12nm will increase by 10%, and the price of mature processes will increase by 15~20%, which will take effect in the first quarter of next year.</p><p>Under the background of \"chip shortage\", TSMC announced the above decision, which obviously added another fire to the anxious market. However, TSMC's decision to raise prices at the end was not \"taking advantage of the situation\", but a choice that had to be made under the pressure of many parties.</p><p>The general trend of the industry must not rise</p><p>When it comes to the price increase of electronic devices, many people think of manufacturers controlling production capacity, regulating market expectations and achieving better revenue. Floods, power outages and fires all seem to be reasonable reasons for reduced production capacity and increased product prices. Compared with these common price increase routines, TSMC is extremely restrained.</p><p>According to the Chinese Internet information records, TSMC's earliest price increase was in 2004. According to Zhongguancun Science and Technology's report, the price increase products at that time were 250nm, 180nm and 150nm process products, and the price increase was also 10%.</p><p>The slowdown of competition caused by the maturity of the process is the main reason for the price adjustment. Although these chips had been adopted by Nvidia, ATI, Texas Instruments and other manufacturers at that time to make mainstream electronic products. However, for upstream manufacturers, the foundry price is too stable, and the foundry capacity cannot be fully released.<b>In order to improve production efficiency and further open up the market, reasonable price increase has become an inevitable choice.</b></p><p>TSMC later raised prices across the board, still in 2008. The mainstream processes of the industry have also begun to enter the double-digit era of 65nm and 32nm. The corresponding R&D expenditure is also rising. Chen Junsheng, then deputy general manager of global business and marketing of TSMC, pointed out:</p><p>\"Based on the capital required for the investment of the 250nm process, when it comes to the 65nm process, the capital required may be 10 times that of the 250nm process; If it comes to the 32nm process, it may be nearly 14 times that of the 250nm micron process.\"</p><p>New processes requiring technical tackling, with high costs. The price of old products that can be mass-produced will inevitably fall. Therefore, TSMC raised its quotation for mature processes below 130nm.<b>This price increase in 2008 is also the first time in the history of TSMC to announce an increase in quotation.</b></p><p>It can be seen that whether to mobilize production capacity or feed back research and development. TSMC's price increase is very conservative and restrained compared with the whole industry. The external posture is also to declare the pros and cons with customers. Everyone discusses it, and both sides cooperate with the market fluctuations after the transitional price increase.</p><p>In fact, compared with its peers, TSMC's price increase is one step slower. From the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, companies like GlobalFoundries, PSMC, SMIC and UMC all issued notices of price increases. Liu Peizhen of Taiwan Province Economic Research Institute of China also said at the press conference of economic trend survey: \"The price increase of 8-inch fabs of UMC, World Advanced, Power Semiconductor and other manufacturers is as high as 50% compared with last year, and that of 12-inch fabs is as high as 30%.\"</p><p>Seeing competitors' price increases, TSMC can only follow the trend and maintain the company's follow-up production through appropriate increases.</p><p>Internally and externally trapped, have to rise</p><p>However, in this \"price increase tide\", TSMC also has its own ideas. One idea is to maintain your gross profit margin.</p><p>For giants in the upstream chip industry, high gross profit margin is the norm. In 2020, Intel's gross profit margin reached 56%, and Qualcomm's gross profit margin reached 60%, relying on patents. As a foundry, TSMC has a gross profit margin of more than 50%. However, judging from the financial report of the second quarter of this year, the gross profit margin only reached about 50%, down 3% compared with last year.</p><p><b>Investors will obviously not be satisfied with such data.</b>Charlie Chan, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that TSMC's gross profit margin may drop below 50% as early as next year. In view of the follow-up development of TSMC, he even gave a heavy hammer:</p><p>\"In the post-Moore era, costs are becoming too expensive, and TSMC will have to raise capital expenditure and bear the cost of falling profit margins to maintain the scale trend of chip manufacturing.\" In the face of investors' lowering expectations, TSMC is also trying to remedy it. Increasing the price of factory products across the board has become the fastest choice to raise gross profit margin and maintain high market expectations.</p><p>In addition to maintaining gross profit margin, TSMC is also facing global transformation at the production and operation level.</p><p>In May this year, TSMC's branch factory in Arizona, USA, started construction. Despite the long-term drought problem in the local area, which is not conducive to chip production. The local cost of building clean rooms is as high as $50 billion, which far exceeds TSMC's budget. TSMC still chose to rent 5,000 containers to move the whole clean room plant at its headquarters to its US branch plant.</p><p>Not only the American branch factory under construction, but also TSMC may build a branch factory in Dresden, Germany, for automobile chips, to compete with Bosch, GC and other manufacturers for the market cake. The Japanese government is also inviting TSMC to set up a semiconductor manufacturing joint venture company. TSMC will contribute 50%, and the remaining share will be funded by Sony and Denso, which will also solve the demand for automotive chips.</p><p><b>It can be seen that TSMC's factory-building strategy has changed from the original \"treasure island-based\" to the current \"global flowering\".</b>A large number of project construction has brought huge cost pressure to TSMC. TSMC's long-term goal, on the basis of maintaining profitability and promoting research and development, has also added a cost recovery. In order to solve the cost pressure, price increase is also the general trend.</p><p>Removing the business factors, from the industrial data alone, the situation of TSMC is not optimistic. Taking the upstream silicon material as an example, the price has risen from 80,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, an increase of 150%. The prices of corresponding metals such as copper have also skyrocketed. It is obviously unrealistic to ask TSMC to produce at the original price. After TSMC's price increase, silicon wafer manufacturers like Global Crystal have eased the revenue pressure.</p><p>TSMC, which is under pressure internally and externally, has become inevitable to raise its prices.</p><p>How far can you go after the price increase</p><p>After TSMC's price increase, the cost pressure has been passed on to downstream industries.</p><p>Take Apple's products as an example. After the news of TSMC's price increase is released, it is likely to affect the production of subsequent products. The corresponding industry panic even made the domestic media spread the news that \"the price of iPhone 13 increased due to TSMC\", completely ignoring the reality that this mobile phone has been mass-produced.</p><p>This kind of panic is obviously an intuitive manifestation of the \"price increase anxiety\" in the IC industry. As a direct customer of upstream foundries, TSMC's price increases have sent their production costs skyrocketing. However, the existing product scale of IC industry can't completely meet the continuously changing industry needs.<b>If the price of products in the chip industry continues to fluctuate, the road for the IC industry will be more difficult.</b></p><p>For TSMC, the leading party of price increase, this price increase is compared with the past. Without excellent performance endorsement, it also makes its market adjustment unconvincing. The purpose of this price increase is not for production and research and development. Instead, at the level of corporate financial reporting, maintain the basic gross profit margin.<b>For TSMC, it not only proves that the profitability of the company's business has declined, but is more likely to fail investors' expectations.</b>Judging from the current position of TSMC's number one market value in Asia, this is obviously not good news.</p><p>After the chip process enters 10nm, the technical difficulty of new product development will increase exponentially. TSMC, which relies on wafer foundry to make its home, does not currently have a high enough technical moat like Qualcomm and Intel.<b>TSMC's layout of global factory repair has also made enterprises abandon the cost control scheme established by the mainland and fall into the Red Sea of global capacity struggle.</b>If TSMC can't break the game at the chip technology level, no amount of price increase will be a drop in the bucket.</p><p>TSMC's price increase has become a \"kidnapping\" of TSMC by the industry and investors. How far can the \"kidnapped\" TSMC go? Only they know.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzAzNjk2Nw==&mid=2651666364&idx=1&sn=42aa48acdd2f12e26f31724dc84b350a&chksm=f28ab1f4c5fd38e2eb517fd4fb953c5c94b883c7b537fd58f62ddeb5e66dcd625d4620b6f4aa&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0902JFItAi0KaH7Xk2rp36dZ&sharer_sharetime=1630549601836&sharer_shareid=e54202e50f3fc9a41cea2b00b19b9989&version=3.1.12.70057&platform=mac#rd\">科工力量</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzAzNjk2Nw==&mid=2651666364&idx=1&sn=42aa48acdd2f12e26f31724dc84b350a&chksm=f28ab1f4c5fd38e2eb517fd4fb953c5c94b883c7b537fd58f62ddeb5e66dcd625d4620b6f4aa&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0902JFItAi0KaH7Xk2rp36dZ&sharer_sharetime=1630549601836&sharer_shareid=e54202e50f3fc9a41cea2b00b19b9989&version=3.1.12.70057&platform=mac#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154913810","content_text":"憋了十几年的台积电，最终还是决定涨价了。以16/12nm为分界线，16/12nm以下的高端制程价格上涨10%，成熟制程价格上涨15～20％，明年第一季开始生效。\n“芯片荒”的大背景下，台积电公布上述决定，显然给焦虑的市场又加了一把火。然而台积电决定下场涨价，却并非“趁火打劫”，而是多方压力下不得不做出的选择。\n行业大势，不能不涨\n提到电子器件涨价，不少人想到的是厂家控制产能、调控市场预期，达到更好的营收。洪水、停电、火灾，似乎都是产能缩减，产品涨价的合理理由。与这些常见的涨价套路相比，台积电就显得极为克制。\n查询中文互联网资讯记录，台积电最早的一次提价是2004年。根据中关村科技的报道，当时的涨价产品是250nm、180nm和150nm制程产品，涨价幅度也是10%。\n工艺成熟造成竞争减缓，是调价的主要原因。尽管这些芯片在当时已经被Nvidia、ATI、德州仪器等厂商采用，制作主流电子产品。可对于上游厂商而言，过于稳定的代工价格，无法完全释放代工厂产能。为了提高生产效率，进一步开拓市场，合理涨价就成了必然选择。\n台积电后来全线涨价，还是在2008年。行业的主流制程，也开始进入65nm和32nm的两位数时代。对应研发开支也是水涨船高。台积电时任全球业务暨营销副总经理陈俊圣就指出：\n“以250nm制程投入需要资金为基础，到了65nm制程，需要资金可能是250nm制程的10倍；若是到了32nm制程，则可能是250nm微米制程将近14倍。”\n需要技术攻关的新制程，成本居高不下。可批量生产的老产品，价格必然走低。台积电因此针对130nm以下的成熟制程调涨报价。2008年的这次涨价，也是台积电有史以来第1次对外宣布调涨报价。\n可以看出，不论调动产能，还是反哺研发。台积电的涨价，在整个行业中相比起来十分保守克制。对外的姿态也是与客户申明利弊，大家商量着来，双方配合过渡涨价后的市场波动。\n实际上，与同行相比，台积电的涨价还慢了一步。从去年下半年到今年年初，像格芯（GlobalFoundries）、PSMC、SMIC和联华电子都曾发出涨价通知。中国台湾经济研究院刘佩真也在景气动向调查记者会上表示：“联电、世界先进、力积电等厂商8英寸晶圆厂价格涨幅相较去年高达50%、12英寸厂涨幅达30%。”\n眼看竞争对手涨价，台积电也只能跟着趋势走，通过适当的涨幅，维持公司的后续生产。\n内外受困，不得不涨\n不过这次的“涨价大潮”中，台积电也有自己的想法。想法之一，就是维持自己的毛利率。\n芯片上游行业的巨头，高毛利率是常态。2020年，英特尔毛利率达到56%，高通依靠专利，毛利率达到60%。作为代工厂的台积电，尽管毛利率也曾达到50%以上。但是从今年第二季度的财报来看，毛利率仅仅达到50%上下，相比去年下降3%。\n这样的数据，投资人显然不会满意。摩根士丹利分析师Charlie Chan就针对财报数据指出，台积电的毛利率，最早可能在明年降至50%以下。针对台积电的后续发展，他更是给出了一记重锤：\n\n “在后摩尔时代，成本正变得过于昂贵，而台积电将不得不提升资本支出，承受利润率下降的代价，以保持芯片制造的规模化趋势。”\n\n面对投资者调低预期，台积电也在想办法补救。将出厂产品全线涨价，也就成了拉升毛利率，维持市场高期望的最快选择。\n除了维持毛利率，台积电在生产经营层面，还面临着全球化的转型。\n今年5月份，台积电在美国亚利桑那的分厂开工建设。尽管当地长期面临干旱问题，不利于芯片生产。当地修建无尘室的费用高达500亿美元，更是远远超出台积电的预算。台积电还是选择租用5000个集装箱，将总部的无尘室整厂搬运至美国分厂。\n不光是正在建设的美国分厂，针对汽车芯片，台积电也可能在德国德累斯顿建设分厂，与博世、格芯等厂商共同争抢市场蛋糕。日本政府也在邀请台积电设立半导体制造合资公司，台积电将出资50%，剩余份额由索尼和电装出资，解决的也是汽车芯片的需求。\n可以看出，台积电的建厂策略，从原有的“宝岛为主”变成了现在的“全球开花”。大量的项目建设，为台积电带来了巨大的成本压力。台积电的长期目标，也在维持盈利和推动研发的基础上，加上了一条成本回收。为了解决成本压力，涨价也是大势所趋。\n去掉企业经营因素，单从产业数据来看，台积电局势也并不乐观。仅以上游的硅料为例，价格就从8万元上涨到20万元，涨幅达到150%。对应的铜等金属价格也出现暴涨。要求台积电按照原价生产，显然不现实。台积电涨价之后，像是环球晶这样的硅晶圆厂商，反而缓解了营收压力。\n内外受压的台积电，涨价已经变成了必然。\n涨价之后，能走多远\n台积电涨价后，成本压力已经传递给了下游产业。\n以苹果旗下产品为例，台积电涨价消息放出后，很可能影响到后续产品的生产。对应的行业恐慌，甚至让国内媒体传出了“iPhone 13因台积电涨价”的消息，全然不顾这款手机已经大量生产的现实。\n这种恐慌情绪，显然是IC行业“涨价焦虑”的直观表现。作为上游代工厂的直接客户，台积电的涨价让他们的生产成本激增。可IC行业的现有产品规模，不可能彻底满足持续变化的行业需求。如果芯片行业产品价格持续波动，IC行业的路会更难走。\n对于涨价主导方台积电，这次涨价与以往相比。没有优秀的业绩背书，也让它的市场调整缺乏说服力。这次涨价的目的，并非针对生产和研发。而是在企业财报层面，维持基本的毛利率。对于台积电而言，不但证明了公司业务盈利能力下降，更有可能让投资者的预期落空。以目前台积电亚洲市值第一的地位来看，这显然不是好消息。\n芯片制程进入10nm之后，新产品开发的技术难度会指数性上升。依靠晶圆代工发家的台积电，目前并不像高通和英特尔一样，拥有足够高的技术护城河。台积电全球修厂的布局，也让企业抛弃依靠大陆建立的成本控制方案，陷入了全球产能斗争的红海中。如果台积电无法在芯片技术层面破局，再多的涨价也是杯水车薪。\n台积电的涨价，已经变成了行业和投资者对台积电的“绑架”。被“绑架”的台积电还能走多远？只有他们自己清楚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323040909,"gmtCreate":1615292733601,"gmtModify":1704780696198,"author":{"id":"3572086617341548","authorId":"3572086617341548","name":"JackX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae341a02e364f810cd6857a78c4f8bc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572086617341548","idStr":"3572086617341548"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323040909","repostId":"2118644643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}