B — Tech Stocks. 💻🚀 If I could only hold one through year-end, I’d still choose Tech. Oil above $95 may benefit energy earnings in the short term, but I’m investing for the bigger structural trend, not just the current macro cycle. AI, cloud computing, data centres and semiconductor demand are long-term growth engines that can continue compounding even after the oil/inflation story fades. Yes, higher oil can keep inflation sticky and put pressure on valuations, but that can create volatility and better entry points, rather than invalidate the long-term thesis. Energy is attractive when oil stays elevated, but oil prices are cyclical. Technology’s innovation cycle is much more structural. I’d rather tolerate some volatility in quality tech names than chase an energy rally after oil ha
#Dow’s Fifth Straight Gain — But September Could Break the Streak The Dow just logged its fifth consecutive monthly gain, but I think the streak is increasingly vulnerable to a September reversal. The warning signs are stacking up fast. Brent crude has pushed back above $90, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.75%+ as the Iran conflict reignites inflation fears. At the same time, markets have sharply increased the probability of a September rate hike following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message. That creates a particularly uncomfortable setup for equities: Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → fewer Fed cuts / greater hike risk → higher yields → lower equity multiples. And the Dow isn’t immune simply because it is more value-oriented. A prolonged oil shock can sq
#Warsh Just Changed the Market Regime — And Tech Is the First Casualty Warsh’s Jackson Hole message wasn’t simply “rates might go higher.” The bigger signal is that the Fed is no longer willing to treat modest disinflation as evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%. That matters because PCE is still running well above target, while the market had been positioned for easier policy. (Federal Reserve) September hike odds have jumped from roughly 35% to around 60%, while the 2-year Treasury yield immediately repriced higher. (Reuters) My read: this is most bearish for high-duration tech, less straightforward for BTC, and potentially the most complicated for gold. 1️⃣ Tech — biggest fundamental pressure QQQ is vulnerable because higher front-end yields directly increase the disco
Alphabet’s 3-horizon model is the most balanced. Using Search cash flow to fund Cloud growth and Gemini optionality protects margins better than Meta’s cash-compressing $130–145B CapEx plan. This was a leveraged liquidity unwind, not a CapEx panic. Situational Awareness’s margin call forced liquidations across unrelated AI stocks before Citadel stepped in to buy the dip. A dovish Fed tone supports growth multiples into the September FOMC, but the market will get selective. Future gains will favor companies converting CapEx into revenue over heavy spenders. Own the Sellers (AWS, memory/chip suppliers) and disciplined spenders like MSFT/GOOG. Picks-and-shovels providers collect revenue today, avoiding the risk of compressed free cash flow. [Lovely][Lovely][Lovely]
MSTR +24% Bitcoin Rally: Still Worth Chasing? Strategy just reminded the market why MSTR is one of the highest-beta ways to play Bitcoin. Bitcoin has ripped ~24% recently, pushing Strategy’s 840,447 BTC holdings back above their aggregate cost basis. MSTR followed with a 2.83% gain Monday — but the bigger story is the $2B capital raise. Here’s the bullish part: Strategy now has roughly $6.69B of USD liquidity, including a newly created $1.59B cash pool. That gives Saylor dry powder to buy Bitcoin, repurchase securities, or exploit market dislocations. And this is why I’m still bullish on MSTR: BTC goes up → MSTR’s asset base strengthens → capital becomes easier to raise → more BTC can potentially be accumulated → BTC exposure per share can compound. That reflexive loop is the entire MSTR t
NVIDIA Drops 2.3% Before Earnings — I’m Still Bullish 🚀 NVIDIA just gave investors a better entry point. Shares fell 2.3% Tuesday, as the entire semiconductor complex sold off, with NVDA now sitting around the $225 area ahead of its Aug. 26 earnings. The market is suddenly questioning whether AI spending has gone too far, whether NVIDIA is financing its own demand, and whether challengers like Cerebras and Groq can finally take share. My take? The market is focusing on the wrong risk. I’m bullish into earnings. 1. The fundamental numbers are still extremely hard to ignore NVIDIA’s last quarter was not a company showing signs of slowing down. Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.6B, +85% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2B, +92% YoY. Even more important: NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to approximate
🚀 SanDisk Just Broke $1,700 — Is This Still a Memory Cycle, or a New AI Storage Era? SNDK is becoming VERY hard to ignore. SanDisk has now ripped roughly 35% in just five trading days, pushing from around $1,200 to ~$1,725 today. And this isn’t happening in isolation: 🟢 SNDK: ~$1,725 🟢 MU: ~$1,002 🟢 SK Hynix ADR: ~$172 🟢 WDC: ~$526 The entire memory complex is waking up again — but SNDK is clearly leading the charge. (Barron’s) And after digging into SanDisk’s Investor Day, I think the market is beginning to price in something much bigger than another NAND cycle. 🔒 The BIG story: 2027–2028 capacity is already being spoken for SanDisk has signed eight New Business Model agreements, covering approximately 50% of FY27 bit shipments and around two-thirds of FY28. That’s extremely important. Tr
Gold’s $300 Rally: The Short Squeeze May Be Ending — The Real Rally Could Be Starting 🥇📈 Gold just ripped nearly $300 in three sessions, closing around $4,384/oz after briefly touching a seven-week high. At first glance, this looks like a classic short squeeze. But I think that’s only half the story. The bigger shift is happening underneath: 🔻 Oil prices are falling → less inflation pressure 🔻 Weak payrolls → stronger expectations for rate cuts 🔻 Yields are easing → lower opportunity cost of holding gold 🔻 Dollar expectations are weakening → another tailwind for bullion That changes the gold trade completely. Gold doesn’t need a geopolitical crisis to rally if real yields are falling. And that’s why I’m leaning bullish rather than treating this as a temporary squeeze. 🥇 The key test: CPI T
🚀 SpaceX Surged 15.8% — Now Rocket Lab Has to Deliver Hi Tigers! 🐯 SpaceX jumped 15.83% last Friday, pushing through the largest lock-up expiry on record — and that move matters beyond SpaceX itself. The money is rotating back into the space sector. Rocket Lab followed with a +9.46% move, but unlike SpaceX, RKLB still has something to prove. 📊 Tonight’s earnings could be the turning point. Wall Street is looking for roughly $232M revenue, representing around 60% YoY growth. That is already a high bar — but the bigger question isn’t simply whether Rocket Lab beats revenue. It’s whether management can show that growth is accelerating across its launch, satellite systems and defense businesses. 🚀 Why I’m bullish on RKLB Rocket Lab is no longer just a “small rocket company.” Its Electron launc
📉 Tech Stocks: Buy the Dip or Run for the Exit? The recent tech selloff has definitely shaken investor confidence. With KOSPI plunging 43.9%, ChiNext falling 27.9% and the Nasdaq dropping 10.2%, the question is no longer simply whether AI is the future. The real question is: How much of that future has already been priced into today’s stock valuations? 🤔 Some of the biggest AI-related names have been hit especially hard. Micron fell 41.2%, SanDisk 57.6% and SpaceX 52.6% according to the campaign figures. That kind of drawdown makes it tempting to either panic-sell or aggressively buy the dip. Personally, I think neither extreme is the right approach. I see this more as an AI valuation reset than the end of the AI cycle. 🤖 AI demand is still real — but expectations have changed One of the b