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calebxiong

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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·08-08
  2
  Trump Signs Order Easing Path for Private Assets in 401(k)s
  President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap...
  Trump Signs Order Easing Path for Private Assets in 401(k)s
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2023-02-10
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-12-05
  Ok
  5 Monster Stocks to Buy Before 2023
  These companies offer solid buying opportunities right now.
  5 Monster Stocks to Buy Before 2023
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-12-04
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-30
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-29
  Ok
  It's A Long Road For Palantir
  SummaryPLTR stock is phenomenal for trading.The mounting pressure on growth is leading to reduced an
  It's A Long Road For Palantir
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-28
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  Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week
  Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the wee
  Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-27
  Ok
  Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside
  SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY
  Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-26
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  Apple: Ignore The Zero-COVID Policy And Manchester United Noise
  The Apple Investment Thesis Is Still IntactIt is evident that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in the hot seat
  Apple: Ignore The Zero-COVID Policy And Manchester United Noise
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- calebxiongcalebxiong
  ·2022-11-25
  Ok
  Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie
  SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are
  Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie
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2","listText":"&nbsp; 2","text":"2","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/465385363857744","repostId":"1106641986","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106641986","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754623707,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106641986?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-08 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Trump Signs Order Easing Path for Private Assets in 401(k)s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106641986","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap...","content":"<div>\n<p>President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/trump-to-sign-order-easing-path-for-private-assets-in-401-k-s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Signs Order Easing Path for Private Assets in 401(k)s</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Signs Order Easing Path for Private Assets in 401(k)s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-08 11:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/trump-to-sign-order-easing-path-for-private-assets-in-401-k-s><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/trump-to-sign-order-easing-path-for-private-assets-in-401-k-s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","MSTR":"Strategy","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","SOS":"SOS Limited","NCTY":"第九城市","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BTM":"Bitcoin Depot Inc.","EBON":"亿邦国际","CLSK":"CleanSpark, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","CAN":"嘉楠科技","BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/trump-to-sign-order-easing-path-for-private-assets-in-401-k-s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106641986","content_text":"President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap some of the roughly $12.5 trillion held in those retirement accounts.Trump signed the order Thursday, according to the White House. It directs the Labor Department to reevaluate guidance around alternative asset investments in retirement plans subject to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 within six months.The department is also directed to clarify the government’s position on the fiduciary responsibilities associated with offering asset allocation funds that include alternative holdings.Trump also required Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer to work with counterparts at the Treasury Department, Securities and Exchange Commission and other federal regulators to determine whether rule changes should be made to assist in the effort. The SEC is asked to facilitate access to alternative assets for participant-directed retirement plans.It’s the biggest move yet by the Trump administration to bring private assets to defined-contribution accounts.Top officials in Washington had weighed a directive for months that would relax legal concerns that have long kept alternative assets out of most worker defined-contribution plans. Retirement portfolios are mostly concentrated in stocks and bonds in part because corporate plan administrators are reluctant to venture into illiquid and complex products.Elements of the effort mirror measures taken during Trump’s first term, when the Labor Department issued guidance that retirement plan administrators wouldn’t violate their responsibilities if they included private equity in their portfolios. That was later rolled back under former President Joe Biden.Alternative and traditional asset managers are eager to grab a slice of the defined-contribution market, which they see as the next frontier of growth. Many institutional investors, including US pension funds and endowments, have reached internal limits of what they can put into private equity amid a broader slowdown in dealmaking and a lack of distributions to clients.Proponents argue that opening 401(k)s to private markets products would offer savers more investment options and greater potential upside. But with that comes higher risk and bigger fees that may leave retirement plan administrators vulnerable to lawsuits.Money managers have pitched policymakers on the notion that savers’ portfolios don’t reflect changes in finance as public markets shrink. The number of publicly traded US firms has greatly declined since a peak in the 1990s, while private equity assets more than doubled in the decade ending in 2023.The initiative dovetails with Trump’s efforts to champion the cryptocurrency industry. Last month, Trump hosted a “Crypto Week” at the White House and signed the first federal law regulating stablecoins. Trump also tapped venture capitalist David Sacks of Craft Ventures LLC to be the first-ever White House artificial intelligence and crypto czar.The president hosted industry leaders at the White House in March and signed an executive order calling for the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a separate stockpile of other digital assets. His administration has also vowed to elevate crypto-friendly regulators and dismissed or paused lawsuits and investigations whose targets included Coinbase, Robinhood, Uniswap Labs and OpenSea.Trump and his family have launched multiple crypto ventures of their own, with the projects adding at least $620 million to his net worth in recent months, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":1.1,"BTCM":1.1,"EBON":1.1,"BITO":1.1,"MSTR":1.1,"SOS":1.1,"RIOT":1.1,"MARA":1.1,"CLSK":1.1,"COIN":1.1,"NCTY":1.1,"BTBT":1.1,"GBTC":1.1,"BTM":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954379221,"gmtCreate":1676038703163,"gmtModify":1676038706052,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954379221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967006422,"gmtCreate":1670218990466,"gmtModify":1676538323253,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967006422","repostId":"2288946354","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288946354","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670206384,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288946354?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Monster Stocks to Buy Before 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288946354","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies offer solid buying opportunities right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>The bear market may not feel like a great time for investing. But here's the thing: It actually is one of the best times to buy stocks. That's because you can pick up stocks that may have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/03/5-monster-stocks-to-buy-before-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Monster Stocks to Buy Before 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Monster Stocks to Buy Before 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 10:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/03/5-monster-stocks-to-buy-before-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The bear market may not feel like a great time for investing. But here's the thing: It actually is one of the best times to buy stocks. That's because you can pick up stocks that may have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/03/5-monster-stocks-to-buy-before-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","AMZN":"亚马逊","DIS":"迪士尼","HD":"家得宝","ISRG":"直觉外科公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/03/5-monster-stocks-to-buy-before-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288946354","content_text":"The bear market may not feel like a great time for investing. But here's the thing: It actually is one of the best times to buy stocks. That's because you can pick up stocks that may have been expensive in the past for a bargain. In many cases, we're talking about market leaders and companies that have become household names.Bear markets don't last forever (thankfully). So, these solid players could rebound and thrive at any moment. That means right now is the time to get in on companies that have what it takes to lift your portfolio over the long term. Let's check out five monster stocks to buy before 2023.1. AmazonAmazon (AMZN) has had a tough year. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant has reported quarter after quarter of declines in operating income. And free cash flow has even shifted to an outflow. That's as higher inflation increased Amazon's costs and weighed on the wallets of its customers.Things don't look great for the company right now. But the key words are \"right now.\" The long-term picture remains extremely bright. The e-commerce and cloud computing services markets are forecast to grow in the double digits this decade. Amazon, as a leader, should benefit.Also, today's tough times have prompted the company to improve its cost structure. That will serve it well in the future. It has shifted its investments to favor its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services. That business still is posting double-digit growth in operating income and revenue.As for e-commerce, Amazon this fall reached record sign-ups for its U.S. Prime subscription service. That, too, is another great sign for the future.Amazon trades for its cheapest in relation to sales since 2015. Through a long-term lens, the stock looks dirt cheap.2. DisneyDisney (DIS) has reached a big turning point. The entertainment giant has reported growth in its parks, experiences, and products business. And it's made great progress in signing on members to its streaming services -- adding 57 million this year. But Disney is struggling with higher costs. And its shares have tumbled 36% this year.But here's the good news. Disney recently brought back longtime Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger. He's the one responsible for successes like the purchases of Pixar and Marvel. He is also the CEO behind the blockbuster film Frozen.Iger proved himself when it comes to general growth at Disney. During his tenure, market value, revenue, and profit climbed in the triple digits. All of this means he is probably the best person to put Disney back on the right track.DIS Market Cap data by YChartsThe strength in the parks business is another bright spot. That business' revenue rose 73% in the recently ended fiscal year. And parks, experiences, and products traditionally has contributed the most to the company's total revenue.Today, Disney trades for about half of what it was trading for earlier this year -- that's in relation to forward earnings estimates. So now is time to get in on this recovery story.DIS PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts3. EtsyEtsy (ETSY) soared during the early days of the pandemic, when people opted for online shopping over in-store visits. The company is a platform connecting sellers of handmade items with buyers.Since then, Etsy's growth has slowed. And the shares are heading for a 36% loss this year. That said, the company is weathering the economic storm better than most retailers. Sellers are small businesses, so elements like supply chain issues and inventory woes are less of a problem.Etsy actually managed to grow its marketplace gross merchandise sales (GMS) 0.2% in the third quarter. That's excluding the impact of currency exchanges. And if we compare it with the pre-pandemic third quarter of 2019, GMS jumped 134%.The company also has done a great job of growing its audience -- and keeping shoppers loyal. Habitual buyers made up 46% of GMS in the quarter. And Etsy brought in 6 million new buyers.Today, it trades for 33 times forward earnings estimates. That's down from more than 60 earlier this year. Considering Etsy's strength in revenue and the loyalty of its shoppers, future prospects look good. And that's why today's price is a real bargain.4. Intuitive SurgicalIntuitive Surgical  is the global leader in robotic surgery -- by far. The company holds nearly 80% of the market, according to BIS Research. And this leadership is likely to continue for two reasons.First, surgical robots cost more than $1 million. So once a hospital has made this sort of investment, it's likely to stick with it. Second, most surgeons are trained on Intuitive's flagship da Vinci system. It's unlikely they'll want to switch to an entirely new system from one they know well.What else to like about Intuitive? Its revenue model doesn't depend only on the sales of these robots. Intuitive also has a source of recurrent revenue. And this revenue actually surpasses that of robot sales. I'm talking about sales of the instruments and accessories that surgeons need for each procedure.Intuitive's recent share performance doesn't reflect this great business model. This year, the stock is heading for a 23% decline. The company suffered on and off during the pandemic as hospitals postponed surgeries. That meant hospitals didn't have to invest in instruments right away. They also didn't focus on buying new robotic systems.Today, Intuitive trades at 58 times forward earnings estimates. That's compared with more than 72 earlier this year. Considering the long-term leadership picture, now is time to load up on this healthcare player.5. Home DepotHome Depot's (HD) earnings have defied the bear market. But its stock performance hasn't. The shares are heading for a 21% drop this year. And the shares are a screaming buy at less than 20 times forward earnings estimates.The world's biggest home-improvement retailer says demand has remained strong in both its do-it-yourself (DIY) business and professional business. Importantly, the pros say their project backlogs are strong. This suggests they will continue to shop at Home Depot in the coming months as they launch these new projects. And that's great news for Home Depot's revenue.The pro market totals $450 billion, offering Home Depot room for growth. The company is making efforts to keep these customers and its DIY shoppers loyal.For example, it's adding new features to its app to streamline the shopping experience. The efforts are working. The company has seen double-digit growth all year in monthly active users. That's compared with last year.And in the most recent quarter, 11 of the 14 merchandising areas posted positive comparable sales. All of this means there's reason to be optimistic about Home Depot's future earnings. And earnings growth could translate into major share gains. So, now, before 2023, is the perfect time to add this winning player to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ISRG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"HD":0.9,"ETSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964698512,"gmtCreate":1670127547036,"gmtModify":1676538307688,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964698512","repostId":"2288925832","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962555670,"gmtCreate":1669813825290,"gmtModify":1676538248548,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962555670","repostId":"1118460536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962099243,"gmtCreate":1669676471483,"gmtModify":1676538220379,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962099243","repostId":"1122831001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122831001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669650374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122831001?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 23:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It's A Long Road For Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122831001","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPLTR stock is phenomenal for trading.The mounting pressure on growth is leading to reduced an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>PLTR stock is phenomenal for trading.</li><li>The mounting pressure on growth is leading to reduced and yet still stretched valuation.</li><li>While higher level key metrics need to hold up, and what 2023 will bring is still up in the air, margins are the focus.</li><li>Trading this stock is simply easier than the long road of holding forever, but we do think long-term potential is real.</li></ul><p>One stock that we believe is a paradise for traders is Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR). For investors, it has been a total disaster and it is frustrating to see the lack of any kind of real rebound out of the single-digits. We continue to believe in the company long-term, but the company is not necessarily the stock.</p><p>The fact is that it is going to be a long road to real profits. That is why the market hates this stock. Further, the other key metric lines of interest like customer counts, revenues, etc., all seem to be slowing their rate of growth. This was a rapid grower just a year ago. But the world has quickly changed, and all things innovative that do not make a profit have been crushed. Folks, while all manner of financial engineering to show improved &#39;cash flow&#39;, and moderate EBITDA movement, the market does not care anymore. It wants to see a clear path to profitability. While the company has worked, or is starting to work, to rein in spending and to reduce the very dilutive stock-based compensation, the Street is assigning little faith.</p><p>Right now, even though we have outlined a possible Santa Claus rally into year end, we think that stocks like this are going to contend with heavy tax loss selling. The market as a whole has seen most who wanted to sell already sell, but for a trading stock like this, it creates further negative catalysts. If you are an investor, it is hard to not buy at $6-$7 per share. But $7 per share now is more expensive than $7 per share was just months ago, when you account for more shares, and normalization of growth. That is the problem. We continue to like trading swings on the stock long and short. As investors go, it is going to be a long road.</p><h3>The path is difficult, but not impossible</h3><p>Despite what has happened, we continue to like the company long-term, but Palantir stock is just not working right now. On top of the continued dilution, and now the pressure of tax loss harvesting, the company is also facing slowing commercial demand, and governments that will likely reduce spending due to lower tax revenues. Much of the world is already facing or in some cases may be in a recession. The United States has been resilient, but we suspect we see inflation coming down, and the deleterious impacts of increased pressure on consumers and businesses in this more challenging economic climate. With this reality the high level of growth seems to be grinding to a halt, and could stall further in 2023. Potential game-changing names like this that do not make real profit have all been obliterated.</p><p>A lot of traders do not realize (or do not care) that Palantir is not a new company. It has been around a long time, but became public in the height of the tech stock mania as we were coming out of COVID. The thing is that stocks like Palantir are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages. The innovation space is unique. For a long time, the Street could not value them on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. The Street looked to the future based on sales, cash flows, etc. One of the largest reasons stocks like this have been crushed, besides a &#39;tough market&#39; is interest rates. Few have been spared. The concern is that with rates rising, money-losing stocks are out of favor. Debt becomes more expensive, and many companies will suffer. And yet, Palantir has one key advantage. It is still a money loser, though getting there toward sustained breakeven operations, but it has an incredible balance-sheet position.</p><h3>No debt</h3><p>For years, Palantir may lose money or hover around breakeven. $7 is a level where we like this name, with all issues baked in. It is speculative, but we like it. Operationally, we are seeing some positive signs, and some negative signs. The company is not bleeding out and losing money hand over first. In fact, Given that there is no debt at all and a ton of cash on hand ($2.4 billion), Palantir is in strong shape to weather any recessionary pressures in 2023. It should not need to borrow any money, so in many ways, the high rate issue, for now, is somewhat moot. Though if their customers rely on debt to fund contracts, then it becomes a bit of a hidden risk. However, the balance sheet is a strength. The weakness is slowing growth.</p><h3>Slowing growth</h3><p>One thing that has investors concerned is the slowing growth. The company had been growing like a spreading wildfire. It is still in growth mode, but the pace has stalled. In the recently reported quarter, performance was strong on the top line and actually was ahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $478 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. That is strong. But those costs continue to weigh, and the cumulative impact of dilution is anchoring earnings potential. This is evidenced by Palantir&#39;s profitability being lower than expected by $0.01 per share, and worse, guidance was less than consensus.</p><p>Both of Palantir&#39;s segments, the government and commercial segments, had shown incredible growth over the years. The commercial revenue stream specifically has been growing rapidly, while government results have been slowing for several quarters now. Deceleration of revenue growth is definitely a negative for a company without earnings. That said, U.S. growth is still strong. U.S. revenue rose 31% from last year, and the company grew overall customers by 66% year-over-year. Internationally the story is weaker, and likely reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy still despite global weakness.</p><p>Government revenue was still up 20% from a year ago, while U.S. commercial revenue grew 53%. Look this is certainly strong growth. The Street is fickle however, as despite it being strong reported growth, the pace has stalled. But there are positives that we feel are masked to some degree, such as in margins. Gross margin was 77%, very strong, though operating margin a bit lower. Adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $81 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 17%. The target is really around 20%. The company lost $62 million in the quarter operationally otherwise. Now, the company likes to boast its cash flow but it does back out a number of key metrics that while as reported they are burning more cash than may be thought, on their adjusted basis, free cash flow was $37 million for the quarter, and the 8th-straight quarter for which this was positive on the adjusted metrics. The company earned $0.01 per share, showing it is teetering around breakeven.</p><h3>Valuation</h3><p>On the valuation front, Palantir stock is still expensive, even though shares have been crushed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/964639e96ef3383446822e45d937a223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"904\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha PLTR Valuation Grade</p><p>Looking at traditional price-to-earnings is foolish, showing a very pricey at 161X. Ultimately, this is what the Street will care about. For now it gets many quarters to show its potential. The Street has doubts, hence a $7 per share price tag. Perhaps the more appropriate measure is the price-to-sales ratio, but not only is this still very high, the market has basically said it is no longer willing to pay for sky high multiples. Keep that in mind. At 8X sales, the valuation has improved dramatically from where it was last year, but this is still high. The price-to-book has been improving and we are watching this as well as EV/EBIT values. Some of this stretched valuation can be justified by the still strong growth metrics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1cbeed3f6c3c8d0a34c1fa114d009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"923\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha PLTR Growth Metrics</p><p>So these are still solid grades though down from the past A+ values. The performance is coming down, and that reduction, that slower growth (even though it is still strong), builds in further discounts. Rapid growth has to lead somewhere. That is the mantra.</p><p>It is a long road from translating the growth metrics into tangible value, and shareholder returns. This is why the stock is stuck in the mud in the single-digits.</p><h3>Looking ahead</h3><p>So as we have been trying to hammer home, the growth concerns are real. The thing is that the Q4 guidance was pretty weak relative to expectations, despite slightly increasing the full-year outlook. For Q4, management guided to a base case of $503-505 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $506 million, but they upped their adjusted income from operations for the year by about 10% to $385 million.</p><p>Longer-term, the next few years, we think the company can still deliver 30% annual revenue growth. This will depend on how steep of a recession we get and how companies and governments value Palantir&#39;s AI decision making services. It remains to be seen but we would like to see more work done on margins to boost cash flow and to get to real earnings. Like it or not, this is what the Street wants to see. Margins need to improve and growth must remain to offset stock-based compensation. This is still a problem, and a problem for many similar companies. While Palantir&#39;s technology should help governments and businesses alike operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this as recession risks are mounting.</p><h3>Final thoughts</h3><p>The growth rate is slowing some, but the growth is strong. Palantir&#39;s valuation is still expensive, but we think the key indicator will be margins. Better margins drive earnings potential. As we head into year end, expect added pressure from tax loss harvesting. We still like trading the stock for when it runs with a hot market on good days, but for now, we think it will be difficult for the stock to advance much past $9-$10 without real movement on its performance on earnings potential. At the same time, should top line growth or customer count trends weaken further, the stock could see another wave lower. All things considered, it&#39;s still a buy at $7, but we think you should have a short-term view for gains. Take quick gains and move them elsewhere to core holdings. Sure, it is fine to own this long-term, we think it has potential, but it is a long road. It is a trading stock.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's A Long Road For Palantir</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's A Long Road For Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-28 23:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560760-its-long-road-for-palantir><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPLTR stock is phenomenal for trading.The mounting pressure on growth is leading to reduced and yet still stretched valuation.While higher level key metrics need to hold up, and what 2023 will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560760-its-long-road-for-palantir\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560760-its-long-road-for-palantir","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122831001","content_text":"SummaryPLTR stock is phenomenal for trading.The mounting pressure on growth is leading to reduced and yet still stretched valuation.While higher level key metrics need to hold up, and what 2023 will bring is still up in the air, margins are the focus.Trading this stock is simply easier than the long road of holding forever, but we do think long-term potential is real.One stock that we believe is a paradise for traders is Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR). For investors, it has been a total disaster and it is frustrating to see the lack of any kind of real rebound out of the single-digits. We continue to believe in the company long-term, but the company is not necessarily the stock.The fact is that it is going to be a long road to real profits. That is why the market hates this stock. Further, the other key metric lines of interest like customer counts, revenues, etc., all seem to be slowing their rate of growth. This was a rapid grower just a year ago. But the world has quickly changed, and all things innovative that do not make a profit have been crushed. Folks, while all manner of financial engineering to show improved 'cash flow', and moderate EBITDA movement, the market does not care anymore. It wants to see a clear path to profitability. While the company has worked, or is starting to work, to rein in spending and to reduce the very dilutive stock-based compensation, the Street is assigning little faith.Right now, even though we have outlined a possible Santa Claus rally into year end, we think that stocks like this are going to contend with heavy tax loss selling. The market as a whole has seen most who wanted to sell already sell, but for a trading stock like this, it creates further negative catalysts. If you are an investor, it is hard to not buy at $6-$7 per share. But $7 per share now is more expensive than $7 per share was just months ago, when you account for more shares, and normalization of growth. That is the problem. We continue to like trading swings on the stock long and short. As investors go, it is going to be a long road.The path is difficult, but not impossibleDespite what has happened, we continue to like the company long-term, but Palantir stock is just not working right now. On top of the continued dilution, and now the pressure of tax loss harvesting, the company is also facing slowing commercial demand, and governments that will likely reduce spending due to lower tax revenues. Much of the world is already facing or in some cases may be in a recession. The United States has been resilient, but we suspect we see inflation coming down, and the deleterious impacts of increased pressure on consumers and businesses in this more challenging economic climate. With this reality the high level of growth seems to be grinding to a halt, and could stall further in 2023. Potential game-changing names like this that do not make real profit have all been obliterated.A lot of traders do not realize (or do not care) that Palantir is not a new company. It has been around a long time, but became public in the height of the tech stock mania as we were coming out of COVID. The thing is that stocks like Palantir are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages. The innovation space is unique. For a long time, the Street could not value them on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. The Street looked to the future based on sales, cash flows, etc. One of the largest reasons stocks like this have been crushed, besides a 'tough market' is interest rates. Few have been spared. The concern is that with rates rising, money-losing stocks are out of favor. Debt becomes more expensive, and many companies will suffer. And yet, Palantir has one key advantage. It is still a money loser, though getting there toward sustained breakeven operations, but it has an incredible balance-sheet position.No debtFor years, Palantir may lose money or hover around breakeven. $7 is a level where we like this name, with all issues baked in. It is speculative, but we like it. Operationally, we are seeing some positive signs, and some negative signs. The company is not bleeding out and losing money hand over first. In fact, Given that there is no debt at all and a ton of cash on hand ($2.4 billion), Palantir is in strong shape to weather any recessionary pressures in 2023. It should not need to borrow any money, so in many ways, the high rate issue, for now, is somewhat moot. Though if their customers rely on debt to fund contracts, then it becomes a bit of a hidden risk. However, the balance sheet is a strength. The weakness is slowing growth.Slowing growthOne thing that has investors concerned is the slowing growth. The company had been growing like a spreading wildfire. It is still in growth mode, but the pace has stalled. In the recently reported quarter, performance was strong on the top line and actually was ahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $478 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. That is strong. But those costs continue to weigh, and the cumulative impact of dilution is anchoring earnings potential. This is evidenced by Palantir's profitability being lower than expected by $0.01 per share, and worse, guidance was less than consensus.Both of Palantir's segments, the government and commercial segments, had shown incredible growth over the years. The commercial revenue stream specifically has been growing rapidly, while government results have been slowing for several quarters now. Deceleration of revenue growth is definitely a negative for a company without earnings. That said, U.S. growth is still strong. U.S. revenue rose 31% from last year, and the company grew overall customers by 66% year-over-year. Internationally the story is weaker, and likely reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy still despite global weakness.Government revenue was still up 20% from a year ago, while U.S. commercial revenue grew 53%. Look this is certainly strong growth. The Street is fickle however, as despite it being strong reported growth, the pace has stalled. But there are positives that we feel are masked to some degree, such as in margins. Gross margin was 77%, very strong, though operating margin a bit lower. Adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $81 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 17%. The target is really around 20%. The company lost $62 million in the quarter operationally otherwise. Now, the company likes to boast its cash flow but it does back out a number of key metrics that while as reported they are burning more cash than may be thought, on their adjusted basis, free cash flow was $37 million for the quarter, and the 8th-straight quarter for which this was positive on the adjusted metrics. The company earned $0.01 per share, showing it is teetering around breakeven.ValuationOn the valuation front, Palantir stock is still expensive, even though shares have been crushed.Seeking Alpha PLTR Valuation GradeLooking at traditional price-to-earnings is foolish, showing a very pricey at 161X. Ultimately, this is what the Street will care about. For now it gets many quarters to show its potential. The Street has doubts, hence a $7 per share price tag. Perhaps the more appropriate measure is the price-to-sales ratio, but not only is this still very high, the market has basically said it is no longer willing to pay for sky high multiples. Keep that in mind. At 8X sales, the valuation has improved dramatically from where it was last year, but this is still high. The price-to-book has been improving and we are watching this as well as EV/EBIT values. Some of this stretched valuation can be justified by the still strong growth metrics.Seeking Alpha PLTR Growth MetricsSo these are still solid grades though down from the past A+ values. The performance is coming down, and that reduction, that slower growth (even though it is still strong), builds in further discounts. Rapid growth has to lead somewhere. That is the mantra.It is a long road from translating the growth metrics into tangible value, and shareholder returns. This is why the stock is stuck in the mud in the single-digits.Looking aheadSo as we have been trying to hammer home, the growth concerns are real. The thing is that the Q4 guidance was pretty weak relative to expectations, despite slightly increasing the full-year outlook. For Q4, management guided to a base case of $503-505 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $506 million, but they upped their adjusted income from operations for the year by about 10% to $385 million.Longer-term, the next few years, we think the company can still deliver 30% annual revenue growth. This will depend on how steep of a recession we get and how companies and governments value Palantir's AI decision making services. It remains to be seen but we would like to see more work done on margins to boost cash flow and to get to real earnings. Like it or not, this is what the Street wants to see. Margins need to improve and growth must remain to offset stock-based compensation. This is still a problem, and a problem for many similar companies. While Palantir's technology should help governments and businesses alike operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this as recession risks are mounting.Final thoughtsThe growth rate is slowing some, but the growth is strong. Palantir's valuation is still expensive, but we think the key indicator will be margins. Better margins drive earnings potential. As we head into year end, expect added pressure from tax loss harvesting. We still like trading the stock for when it runs with a hot market on good days, but for now, we think it will be difficult for the stock to advance much past $9-$10 without real movement on its performance on earnings potential. At the same time, should top line growth or customer count trends weaken further, the stock could see another wave lower. All things considered, it's still a buy at $7, but we think you should have a short-term view for gains. Take quick gains and move them elsewhere to core holdings. Sure, it is fine to own this long-term, we think it has potential, but it is a long road. It is a trading stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966436714,"gmtCreate":1669606912739,"gmtModify":1676538212768,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oo","listText":"Oo","text":"Oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966436714","repostId":"1198835584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198835584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669589744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198835584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 06:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198835584","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the wee","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e084694ac7c797625be53771937802\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The government’s monthly employment report, data on the housing market, a second look at GDP growth, PCE inflation, and a reading on consumer confidence are among the many highlights of a busy economic calendar in the coming days.</p><p>The Labor Department’s latest employment report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning, will highlight the schedule.</p><p>Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg. If realized, the number would mark another downtrend in the labor market but reflect still-robust hiring on a historical basis.</p><p>Strong labor market readings havestoked worries that Fed officials will stay the courseon aggressive rate hikes and overshoot on monetary tightening.</p><p>“Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations, “ Capital Economics chief global economist Jennifer McKeown said in a recent note. “However, this resilience probably also reflects a lag before higher interest rates transmit to the economy and firms are forced to reduce employment.”</p><p>On the inflation front, investors will be watching the personal consumption expenditures&#39; (PCE) price index out Thursday to see whether the recent trend of easing inflation holds up. On a monthly basis, PCE is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, up from 0.3% during the prior month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the prior year, PCE inflation is expected to have eased to a rate of 6% from 6.2% previously.</p><p>According to Bank of America’sNovember fund manager survey, investors do not expect the Fed to pivot – or change course on rate hikes – until U.S. PCE inflation falls below 4%.</p><p>For traders, this year&#39;s action has been all about what the Federal Reserve will do next, and fresh economic figures should offer clues about whether a 50- or 75-basis-point increase in the Fed&#39;s benchmark interest rate range awaits investors in mid-December.</p><p>As of Sunday morning,markets were pricing ina roughly 75% chance the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike following the conclusion of its next meeting on December 15, data from the CME Group showed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa8de8c2a5adf749e95d135caffd002\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference in Washington, DC, on November 2, 2022.</span></p><p>Areadout of minutes from the Fed’s November meetingalso indicated a “substantial majority” of officials believe it will soon be time to slow the current pace of increases. But a strong November jobs report and higher than expected PCE figure may dash deceleration hopes.</p><p>“It’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table,” San Francisco Fed PresidentMary Daly said last weekwhen asked whether a 75-basis point rate hike is still possible. “I’m going into the [Fed&#39;s December 14-15] meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table and not taking off prematurely.”</p><p>While investors are hopeful for a meaningful slowdown in inflation and a subsequent policy shift over the next year, some Wall Street strategists are raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to fulfill its goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.</p><p>Strategists at theBlackRock Investment Institute warned last weekglobal investors are in a “new macro regime where central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue.”</p><p>“That is clear in the rate path of major central banks set to overtighten policy as they battle inflation,” BlackRock&#39;s team, led by Jean Boivin, said in weekly commentary. “We think they will eventually pause but not cut rates when confronted with the damage of sharp rate hikes – that could be the reality of recession or the appearance of financial cracks, as seen in the U.K.”</p><p>Billionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman alsosaid in a recent call with investorsinterest rates are &#34;meaningfully below where they are going to go,” and the firm does not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to get inflation back to a consistent 2% level.</p><p>&#34;We think that is, of course, a risk for equities,&#34; Ackman said. &#34;And part of our thesis is we think inflation is going to be structurally higher.&#34;</p><p>Elsewhere in economic data this week, a second estimate of third-quarter GDP, Case-Shiller home price data, manufacturing activity gauges, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence are all on tap.</p><p>Investors are ready to close the curtains on the latest earnings season, but some standout reports will still be released, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR).</p><p>Last week, U.S. markets continued to build on recent moment in a week of trading shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500ended modestly loweron Black Friday but finished the week in the green, up roughly 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also advanced over the three and a half-day trading period, each rising 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><h2>Economic Calendar</h2><p><b>Monday:</b> <b><i>Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity</i></b>, November (-23.0 expected, -19.4 during prior month)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>FHFA Housing Pricing Index</i></b>, September (-1.3% expected, -0.7% during prior month); <b><i>House Price Purchasing Index</i></b>, Q3 (4.0% during prior quarter); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.15% expected, -1.32% during prior month); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite</i></b>, year-over-year, September (10.65% expected, 13.08% during prior month); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index</i></b>(12.99% during prior month); <b><i>Conference Board Consumer Confidence</i></b>, November (100.0 expected, 102.5 during prior month)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <b><i>MBA Mortgage Applications</i></b>, week ended Nov. 25 (2.2% during prior week); <b><i>ADP Employment Change</i></b>, November (195,000 expected, 239,000 during prior month); <b><i>GDP Annualized</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (2.7% expected, 2.6% prior estimate);<b><i>Personal Consumption</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (1.5% expected, 1.4% prior estimate); <b><i>GDP Price Index</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.1% expected, 4.1% prior estimate); <b><i>Core PCE</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.5% prior estimate); <b><i>Advance Goods Trade Balance</i></b>, September (-$90.2 billion expected, -$92.2 billion during prior month); <b><i>Wholesale Inventories</i></b>, month-over-month, October preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.6% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Inventories</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.4% during prior month);<b><i>MNI Chicago PMI,</i></b>November (47.0 expected, 45.2 during prior month); <b><i>PendingHome Sales</i></b>, month-over-month, October (-5.2% expected, -10.2% during prior month); <b><i>JOLTS Job Openings</i></b>, October (10.325 million expected, 10.717 million during prior month); <b><i>Federal Reserve Beige Book</i></b></p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>Challenger Job Cuts</i></b>, year-over-year, November (48.3% during prior month); <b><i>Personal Income</i></b>, October (0.4% expected, 0.4% during prior month); <b><i>Personal Spending</i></b>, October (0.6% expected, 0.8% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Deflator</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month);<b><i>PCE Deflator</i></b>, year-over-year, October (6.0% expected, 6.2% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Core Deflator</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.5% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Core Deflator</i></b>, year-over-year, October (5.0% expected, 5.1% during prior month); <b><i>Initial Jobless Claims</i></b>, week ended Nov. 26 (240,000 during prior week); <b><i>Continuing Claims,</i></b>week ended Nov. 19 (1.551 million during prior week); <b><i>S&amp;P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI</i></b>, November final (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); <b><i>Construction Spending</i></b>, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.2% during prior month); <b><i>ISM Manufacturing</i></b>, November (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); <b><i>ISM Prices Paid</i></b>, November (46.6 during prior month); <b><i>ISM New Orders</i></b>, September (49.2 during prior month); <b><i>ISM Employment</i></b>, November (50.0 during prior month); <b><i>WARDS Total Vehicle Sales</i></b>, November (14.90 million expected, 14.90 prior month)</p><p><b>Friday:</b><b><i>Change in Nonfarm Payrolls</i></b>, November (200,000 expected, 216,000 during prior month); <b><i>Unemployment Rate</i></b>, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% during prior month); <b><i>Average Hourly Earnings</i></b>, month-over-month, November (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month);<b><i>Average Hourly Earnings</i></b>, year-over-year, November (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior month); <b><i>Average Weekly Hours All Employees</i></b>, November (34.5 expected, 34.5 during prior month); <b><i>Labor Force Participation Rate</i></b>, November (62.3% expected, 62.3% during prior month); <b><i>Underemployment Rate</i></b>, November (60.8% prior month)</p><p>—</p><h2><b>Earnings Calendar</b></h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40d1324fad197369d0fd7fc5d75b1b5\" tg-width=\"2027\" tg-height=\"1426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday:</b> Arrowhead (ARWR), AZEK (AZEK)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> Baozun (BZUN), Bilibili (BILI), Compass Minerals (CMP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Hibbett (HIBB), Intuit (INTU), NetApp (NTAP), Workday (WDAY)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Frontline (FRO), Hormel Foods (HRL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Nutanix (NTNX), Okta (OKTA), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Pure Storage (PSTG), PVH (PVH), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys (SNPS), Titan Machinery (TITN), Victoria&#39;s Secret (VSCO)</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> Ambarella (AMBA), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Big Lots (BIG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Designer Brands (DBI), Dollar General (DG), G-III Apparel (GIII), Kroger (KR), Li Auto (LI), Manchester United (MANU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Weber (WEBR), Zscaler (ZS)</p><p><b>Friday:</b> Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Genesco (GCO)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-28 06:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198835584","content_text":"Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike of the year.The government’s monthly employment report, data on the housing market, a second look at GDP growth, PCE inflation, and a reading on consumer confidence are among the many highlights of a busy economic calendar in the coming days.The Labor Department’s latest employment report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning, will highlight the schedule.Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg. If realized, the number would mark another downtrend in the labor market but reflect still-robust hiring on a historical basis.Strong labor market readings havestoked worries that Fed officials will stay the courseon aggressive rate hikes and overshoot on monetary tightening.“Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations, “ Capital Economics chief global economist Jennifer McKeown said in a recent note. “However, this resilience probably also reflects a lag before higher interest rates transmit to the economy and firms are forced to reduce employment.”On the inflation front, investors will be watching the personal consumption expenditures' (PCE) price index out Thursday to see whether the recent trend of easing inflation holds up. On a monthly basis, PCE is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, up from 0.3% during the prior month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the prior year, PCE inflation is expected to have eased to a rate of 6% from 6.2% previously.According to Bank of America’sNovember fund manager survey, investors do not expect the Fed to pivot – or change course on rate hikes – until U.S. PCE inflation falls below 4%.For traders, this year's action has been all about what the Federal Reserve will do next, and fresh economic figures should offer clues about whether a 50- or 75-basis-point increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate range awaits investors in mid-December.As of Sunday morning,markets were pricing ina roughly 75% chance the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike following the conclusion of its next meeting on December 15, data from the CME Group showed.Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference in Washington, DC, on November 2, 2022.Areadout of minutes from the Fed’s November meetingalso indicated a “substantial majority” of officials believe it will soon be time to slow the current pace of increases. But a strong November jobs report and higher than expected PCE figure may dash deceleration hopes.“It’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table,” San Francisco Fed PresidentMary Daly said last weekwhen asked whether a 75-basis point rate hike is still possible. “I’m going into the [Fed's December 14-15] meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table and not taking off prematurely.”While investors are hopeful for a meaningful slowdown in inflation and a subsequent policy shift over the next year, some Wall Street strategists are raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to fulfill its goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.Strategists at theBlackRock Investment Institute warned last weekglobal investors are in a “new macro regime where central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue.”“That is clear in the rate path of major central banks set to overtighten policy as they battle inflation,” BlackRock's team, led by Jean Boivin, said in weekly commentary. “We think they will eventually pause but not cut rates when confronted with the damage of sharp rate hikes – that could be the reality of recession or the appearance of financial cracks, as seen in the U.K.”Billionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman alsosaid in a recent call with investorsinterest rates are \"meaningfully below where they are going to go,” and the firm does not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to get inflation back to a consistent 2% level.\"We think that is, of course, a risk for equities,\" Ackman said. \"And part of our thesis is we think inflation is going to be structurally higher.\"Elsewhere in economic data this week, a second estimate of third-quarter GDP, Case-Shiller home price data, manufacturing activity gauges, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence are all on tap.Investors are ready to close the curtains on the latest earnings season, but some standout reports will still be released, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR).Last week, U.S. markets continued to build on recent moment in a week of trading shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.The S&P 500ended modestly loweron Black Friday but finished the week in the green, up roughly 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also advanced over the three and a half-day trading period, each rising 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively.Economic CalendarMonday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, November (-23.0 expected, -19.4 during prior month)Tuesday: FHFA Housing Pricing Index, September (-1.3% expected, -0.7% during prior month); House Price Purchasing Index, Q3 (4.0% during prior quarter); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, September (-1.15% expected, -1.32% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, September (10.65% expected, 13.08% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index(12.99% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, November (100.0 expected, 102.5 during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 25 (2.2% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (195,000 expected, 239,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (2.7% expected, 2.6% prior estimate);Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (1.5% expected, 1.4% prior estimate); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.1% expected, 4.1% prior estimate); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.5% prior estimate); Advance Goods Trade Balance, September (-$90.2 billion expected, -$92.2 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, October preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.6% during prior month); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, October (0.4% during prior month);MNI Chicago PMI,November (47.0 expected, 45.2 during prior month); PendingHome Sales, month-over-month, October (-5.2% expected, -10.2% during prior month); JOLTS Job Openings, October (10.325 million expected, 10.717 million during prior month); Federal Reserve Beige BookThursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, November (48.3% during prior month); Personal Income, October (0.4% expected, 0.4% during prior month); Personal Spending, October (0.6% expected, 0.8% during prior month); PCE Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month);PCE Deflator, year-over-year, October (6.0% expected, 6.2% during prior month); PCE Core Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE Core Deflator, year-over-year, October (5.0% expected, 5.1% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Nov. 26 (240,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims,week ended Nov. 19 (1.551 million during prior week); S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.2% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, November (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, November (46.6 during prior month); ISM New Orders, September (49.2 during prior month); ISM Employment, November (50.0 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, November (14.90 million expected, 14.90 prior month)Friday:Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, November (200,000 expected, 216,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month);Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, November (34.5 expected, 34.5 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, November (62.3% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, November (60.8% prior month)—Earnings CalendarMonday: Arrowhead (ARWR), AZEK (AZEK)Tuesday: Baozun (BZUN), Bilibili (BILI), Compass Minerals (CMP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Hibbett (HIBB), Intuit (INTU), NetApp (NTAP), Workday (WDAY)Wednesday: Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Frontline (FRO), Hormel Foods (HRL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Nutanix (NTNX), Okta (OKTA), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Pure Storage (PSTG), PVH (PVH), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys (SNPS), Titan Machinery (TITN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)Thursday: Ambarella (AMBA), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Big Lots (BIG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Designer Brands (DBI), Dollar General (DG), G-III Apparel (GIII), Kroger (KR), Li Auto (LI), Manchester United (MANU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Weber (WEBR), Zscaler (ZS)Friday: Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Genesco (GCO)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966694785,"gmtCreate":1669513820948,"gmtModify":1676538203072,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966694785","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966125806,"gmtCreate":1669447739105,"gmtModify":1676538198446,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oo","listText":"Oo","text":"Oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966125806","repostId":"2286650311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286650311","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669426086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286650311?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-26 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Ignore The Zero-COVID Policy And Manchester United Noise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286650311","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Apple Investment Thesis Is Still IntactIt is evident that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in the hot seat","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><b>The Apple Investment Thesis Is Still Intact</b></h2><p>It is evident that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in the hot seat now, due to the rumored Manchester United takeover and the riot in Foxconn&#39;s factory in Zhengzhou. While almost impossible, we suppose the massively popular soccer team may add some advertising and marketing value to the company, especially in the Apple TV segment. However, due to the potential cash burn and the odd timing coinciding with World Cup excitement, it is unlikely that the rumor is true. We&#39;ll see, since Daily Star has also speculated Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) as prospective buyers.</p><p>On the other hand, we do not expect lingering issues from the Foxconn riot. Notably, iPhone 12 was released in October 2020 at a time when global economies were shut down and China under lockdown. And yet, AAPL and Foxconn went above and beyond in delivering 100M units by H1&#39;21. Though the Zhengzhou plant was previously responsible for four in five iPhone production and assembly, we expect these deliveries to still be completed, albeit delayed with much controversy.</p><p>Moving forward, Foxconn is already diversifying its production locations to Vietnam and Thailand, with the factory in India already producing additional iPhone 14 models since early November. Though the iPhone 14 Pro model is still limited to the Chinese factory, we expect things to change in the short term, since the factory in India is reportedly close to achieving parity with China&#39;s capacity. Therefore, safeguarding AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines ahead, no matter the temporal headwinds.</p><p>Even Mr. Market remains optimistic about AAPL&#39;s forward execution, since the stock continues to trade above its 50-day moving average, significantly aided by the upbeat October CPI reports. Assuming that 75.8% of analysts are right that the Feds truly pivot earlier by December, we may see another wave of optimism lifting most boats up then. One word of caution though, it is uncertain if this recovery will be sustainable through 2023, as the Feds may also raise terminal rates to over 6%.</p><h2><b>AAPL&#39;s Performance Continue To Defy The Bears</b></h2><p><b>AAPL Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPS</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b64fba2e93c8db104b8c1c98ec6d412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In its latest earnings call, AAPL reported excellent YoY expansion in gross margins from 41.8% in FY2021 to 43.3% in FY2022, indicating its excellent pricing power despite the rising inflationary pressures. The company also recorded exemplary EBIT and net income margins of 27.6% and 23% in FQ4&#39;22, respectively, representing excellent command of operating expenses over the past three years. This is impressive, despite the elevated stock-based compensation of $9.03B in FY2022, against $7.9B in FY2021 and $6.06B in FY2019. Then again, with $95.62B of share repurchases and $14.84B of dividends paid out at the same time, we are not overly concerned about the destruction of shareholders&#39; value.</p><p><b>AAPL Cash/ Investments, FCF ( in billion $ ) %, and Debts</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939b756788b92bbbf2a6e101ab6fb85b\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Thereby, also expanding AAPL&#39;s Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation to $20.84B for the latest quarter, or $111.44B for FY2022, improving its margins by 2.9 percentage points YoY. However, long-term investors would be well-advised to monitor the health of its balance sheet, due to the continuous decline in its total cash/ investments to $48.3B by the latest quarter, indicating a -22.89% headwind YoY or -51.96% from FY2019 levels.</p><p>Furthermore, AAPL&#39;s debt levels remain elevated thus far, with $11.13B due 2023, despite the growth in its FCF generation. Nonetheless, with its long-term debts well-laddered through 2062, the company is still well-positioned for the short term market volatility in 2023.</p><p><b>AAPL Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPS, and</b> <b>FCF %</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dd8a68dd2244820105b96fa14e0b48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Furthermore, AAPL&#39;s top and bottom line growth through FY2025 remains robust, despite the tragic market-wide correction thus far. Mr. Market has only discounted its forward execution by -2.06% and -7.96%, respectively, since May 2022. Furthermore, we may see an upwards re-rating ahead, assuming that its mixed-reality headsets are released in 2023 and Apple Car by 2025. Given its unique positioning in the tech market and loyal global fan base with higher spending power, it is not hard to see why AAPL is well-covered by market analysts.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>Apple: Hello Recession</li><li>Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed Reality</li></ul><h2><b>So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></h2><p><b>AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ccb10ea1431a665c5d82802ec26e030\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 24.20x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.72x and 22.19x. Otherwise, comparatively lower than its YTD mean of 6.15x and 25.46x, respectively. Otherwise, the stock has also recorded an excellent recovery of 12.01% since recent rock bottom levels in early November. Despite so, consensus estimates remain bullish about AAPL&#39;s prospects, given their price target of $180.70 and a 19.61% upside from current prices.</p><p><b>AAPL YTD Stock Price</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932da1c65e7f3b000a7065a05264b9b3\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>It is not hard to see why AAPL remains the king of the FAANG stocks, despite the market-wide correction thus far. The stock has suffered minimally in the past year by a moderate decline of -17%, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index by -16.04% and Meta by a tragic -66.85% at the same time. Investors must not forget the subscription plan previously reported by Bloomberg, since AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines remained mostly intact through FY2025, despite the peak recessionary fears.</p><p>Nonetheless, we have to also admit that investors should wait for a moderate retracement before adding at current levels. That is if one had missed loading up at the recent bottom of $134. There are still some uncertainties in the short term, since the Feds are due to meet by mid-December, with the circumstances still chaotic in Zhengzhou. While its long-term prospects are stellar, we expect to see another bottom retest soon. Especially by the FQ1&#39;23 earnings call, since AAPL may fail to deliver part of its iPhone 14 orders, thereby, missing consensus revenue estimates of $125.85B and EPS of $2.04. Patience for now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Ignore The Zero-COVID Policy And Manchester United Noise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Ignore The Zero-COVID Policy And Manchester United Noise\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-26 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560473-apple-ignore-zero-covid-policy-manchester-united-noise><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Apple Investment Thesis Is Still IntactIt is evident that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in the hot seat now, due to the rumored Manchester United takeover and the riot in Foxconn's factory in Zhengzhou. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560473-apple-ignore-zero-covid-policy-manchester-united-noise\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560473-apple-ignore-zero-covid-policy-manchester-united-noise","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286650311","content_text":"The Apple Investment Thesis Is Still IntactIt is evident that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is in the hot seat now, due to the rumored Manchester United takeover and the riot in Foxconn's factory in Zhengzhou. While almost impossible, we suppose the massively popular soccer team may add some advertising and marketing value to the company, especially in the Apple TV segment. However, due to the potential cash burn and the odd timing coinciding with World Cup excitement, it is unlikely that the rumor is true. We'll see, since Daily Star has also speculated Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) as prospective buyers.On the other hand, we do not expect lingering issues from the Foxconn riot. Notably, iPhone 12 was released in October 2020 at a time when global economies were shut down and China under lockdown. And yet, AAPL and Foxconn went above and beyond in delivering 100M units by H1'21. Though the Zhengzhou plant was previously responsible for four in five iPhone production and assembly, we expect these deliveries to still be completed, albeit delayed with much controversy.Moving forward, Foxconn is already diversifying its production locations to Vietnam and Thailand, with the factory in India already producing additional iPhone 14 models since early November. Though the iPhone 14 Pro model is still limited to the Chinese factory, we expect things to change in the short term, since the factory in India is reportedly close to achieving parity with China's capacity. Therefore, safeguarding AAPL's top and bottom lines ahead, no matter the temporal headwinds.Even Mr. Market remains optimistic about AAPL's forward execution, since the stock continues to trade above its 50-day moving average, significantly aided by the upbeat October CPI reports. Assuming that 75.8% of analysts are right that the Feds truly pivot earlier by December, we may see another wave of optimism lifting most boats up then. One word of caution though, it is uncertain if this recovery will be sustainable through 2023, as the Feds may also raise terminal rates to over 6%.AAPL's Performance Continue To Defy The BearsAAPL Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPSS&P Capital IQIn its latest earnings call, AAPL reported excellent YoY expansion in gross margins from 41.8% in FY2021 to 43.3% in FY2022, indicating its excellent pricing power despite the rising inflationary pressures. The company also recorded exemplary EBIT and net income margins of 27.6% and 23% in FQ4'22, respectively, representing excellent command of operating expenses over the past three years. This is impressive, despite the elevated stock-based compensation of $9.03B in FY2022, against $7.9B in FY2021 and $6.06B in FY2019. Then again, with $95.62B of share repurchases and $14.84B of dividends paid out at the same time, we are not overly concerned about the destruction of shareholders' value.AAPL Cash/ Investments, FCF ( in billion $ ) %, and DebtsS&P Capital IQThereby, also expanding AAPL's Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation to $20.84B for the latest quarter, or $111.44B for FY2022, improving its margins by 2.9 percentage points YoY. However, long-term investors would be well-advised to monitor the health of its balance sheet, due to the continuous decline in its total cash/ investments to $48.3B by the latest quarter, indicating a -22.89% headwind YoY or -51.96% from FY2019 levels.Furthermore, AAPL's debt levels remain elevated thus far, with $11.13B due 2023, despite the growth in its FCF generation. Nonetheless, with its long-term debts well-laddered through 2062, the company is still well-positioned for the short term market volatility in 2023.AAPL Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPS, and FCF %S&P Capital IQFurthermore, AAPL's top and bottom line growth through FY2025 remains robust, despite the tragic market-wide correction thus far. Mr. Market has only discounted its forward execution by -2.06% and -7.96%, respectively, since May 2022. Furthermore, we may see an upwards re-rating ahead, assuming that its mixed-reality headsets are released in 2023 and Apple Car by 2025. Given its unique positioning in the tech market and loyal global fan base with higher spending power, it is not hard to see why AAPL is well-covered by market analysts.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.Apple: Hello RecessionApple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed RealitySo, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQAAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 24.20x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.72x and 22.19x. Otherwise, comparatively lower than its YTD mean of 6.15x and 25.46x, respectively. Otherwise, the stock has also recorded an excellent recovery of 12.01% since recent rock bottom levels in early November. Despite so, consensus estimates remain bullish about AAPL's prospects, given their price target of $180.70 and a 19.61% upside from current prices.AAPL YTD Stock PriceSeeking AlphaIt is not hard to see why AAPL remains the king of the FAANG stocks, despite the market-wide correction thus far. The stock has suffered minimally in the past year by a moderate decline of -17%, compared to the S&P 500 Index by -16.04% and Meta by a tragic -66.85% at the same time. Investors must not forget the subscription plan previously reported by Bloomberg, since AAPL's top and bottom lines remained mostly intact through FY2025, despite the peak recessionary fears.Nonetheless, we have to also admit that investors should wait for a moderate retracement before adding at current levels. That is if one had missed loading up at the recent bottom of $134. There are still some uncertainties in the short term, since the Feds are due to meet by mid-December, with the circumstances still chaotic in Zhengzhou. While its long-term prospects are stellar, we expect to see another bottom retest soon. Especially by the FQ1'23 earnings call, since AAPL may fail to deliver part of its iPhone 14 orders, thereby, missing consensus revenue estimates of $125.85B and EPS of $2.04. Patience for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966969460,"gmtCreate":1669383888651,"gmtModify":1676538191668,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573369466096628","authorIdStr":"3573369466096628"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966969460","repostId":"2285438248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285438248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669363390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285438248?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-25 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285438248","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>We are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.</li><li>We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.</li><li>Valuation is stretched considering growth has slowed to a crawl, and that does not even account for what a mild or moderate recession could look like.</li><li>There are major issues with production.</li><li>Let it fall.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98aaa6991c907012babe7fa574645eb8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>kimberrywood/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>We want to start this column by stating that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of our core holdings, and our analysts all own it in their personal long-term accounts for close to a decade. But, when Apple surged inlate summer, we started selling chunks of the position. We are short-term bearish here, though we are buyers lower. Look, this is one of the greatest companies ever. No doubt. But, this is still a stock, and we like to trade around the core position. In this column, we highlight fundamental concerns that we have in the near-term. We are glad we were selling on strength in September and again in late October. Now, we sold more small pieces of more than just Apple, but it was our take that we could come back to Apple and repurchase the shares at better levels, and a more reasonable valuation. Shares are now down about 12% from where we sold some, and about 7% from our last round of selling. We want the stock to come lower before coming back in. The market has been up big the last few weeks, and Apple has not done much. Apple also has a lot of problems in China. It also has chip issues, and there are questions on demand. We would let it drop ideally to $130 again, which we think is easily in the cards. It will only take a few bad sessions, and we are in an interest rate hiking cycle. Like it or not, the market right now may be a touch overbought, even though it was recovering from an oversold situation. Use this to your advantage to compound gains in this great stock. Let it come down.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b276b117db7b1fe6933c4048b4d34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BAD BEAT Investing</span></p><p>Here is how we would play this. This trade is outlined for possible new money coming into the stock. We do think we are in a mild buy zone in the mid $140s, and a strong buy zone in the low 130s. We suspect shares will fall, we are bearish short-term, but here is how we would get long.</p><p>The play</p><p>Target entry 1: $144-$145 (25% of position)</p><p>Target entry 2: $135-$136 (30% of position)</p><p>Target entry 3: $130-$131 (45% of position)</p><p>With the VIX down to about 21, call options can be purchased. Frankly, with the high volume and liquidity, we like LEAPS. Go out 13 months, and look to $150 strikes. You can also scale into them, and look to exit on a rally that puts you up at least 30%. Lots of time, and the calls are cheaper than they have been in months. We are short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.</p><h2>Performance discussion</h2><p>The performance of the company remains strong. The recently reported Q4 was well covered by many of our colleagues but we would like to reiterate a few highlights as they are integral to deciding to still hold a core position, even if we are trading around ours.</p><p>Yes, Q3 2022 was another fourth-quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion. These revenues rose nicely by 8% year-over-year. Folks, once again there was solid growth in products and services. The company just grows reliably as it penetrates new markets, and continues to be a dominating brand. The products revenue jumped 9% to $71.0 billion vs. $65.1 billion a year ago. Within the products there was strength in all lines except iPad. Could consumers be saturated with products? The question is whether consumers will now delay upgrades with a possible recession coming. The risk is real. It does not mean the company is going to see massive declines. But the pace of growth could potentially stall to flat if the recession is moderate. iPhone continues to be a winner, with iPhone revenue of $42.6 billion vs. $38.9 billion a year ago, a 9.5% gain. Winning. Mac revenue rose a strong 25% to $11.5 billion. Strong, but this strength was offset by lower sales of iPads, where revenue fell 13.1% to $7.2 billion. But accessories and wearables remained strong as revenue grew 8.5% to $9.7 billion. At the same time, service revenue remains solid, which grew to $19.2 billion.</p><p>We think it is worth noting the gains, because it suggests demand is still robust. There have been questions on demand for devices, but thus far, it remains strong. The holiday quarter here will be telling, and we standby the risk to demand should recession hit. Margins remains strong, as the cost of sales rose at a commensurate pace with revenue growth. Gross margins were 53.7%. Stellar, but did dip from 54.0% last year. Very mildly bearish, but something to watch as inflation is leading to higher input and material cost, as well as labor. Operating expenses rose over 15%, with higher research and development costs weighing. Still, the company generated over $24 billion in operating cash flow, which is strong.</p><p>Overall, the EPS of $1.29 rose 4% from a year ago, and surpassed consensus by $0.02. Annual EPS was $6.11. At $150 the stock is relatively expensive at 24.5X trailing EPS. On a forward looking basis, we have concerns over impacts to both supply and demand, as well as rising costs. This makes us justified in our selling 20-25 points higher. Shares are expensive, but the growth was 9% from 2021 to 2022. We are overpaying for modest growth, even with all of the amazing innovation from the company, the solid cash hoard, share repurchases, and the dividends. Mathematically, there are concerns, but this is why we view $135 or less as a good entry. At that level, 22X is more reasonable, and, when we think about fiscal 2023 earnings, we are factoring in minimal growth, and continued cost pressures. We are looking for revenue to grow 2-3%, and EPS to be up 2%-5%, assuming we do face a mild recession, and lower if it is worse. An early look suggests $6.25-$6.45, not counting any possible future share repurchases. This is why we are cautious, but at the midpoint, and at our last leg, just over 20X EPS. That would still be richly valued, but we still assign brand name premium here, and have to give credit for the huge cash on hand.</p><h2>Now, why do we think shares can and will fall?</h2><p>There are several ongoing issues. Do not mistake possible slower rate hikes as lower rates. We are still hiking here folks. The Fed wants a slowdown in the economy, and if we see unemployment build, wages normalize, and a still elevated dollar, Apple will face pressure. It will not be immune. This is just reality. But we have deeper issues on the supply side of things, as well as possible demand concerns.</p><p>China is a huge risk here. Apple would likely love to be divorced from the company if it could, but right now, it relies heavily on international production. Folks, the ongoing Chinese &#34;zero-Covid policy&#34; has caused huge issues with new iPhone 14 Pro production. With all of the COVID lockdowns many employees have left Foxconn, and now they are down nearly 100,000 employees. They simply cannot replace them in time. As such, two weeks ago Apple warned shipments would be heavily impacted. The supplier just does not have the capacity to meet the order demand, but is trying to tweak production schedules in China.</p><p>Now, supposedly, there has been hopes of China easing off its zero COVID policy. Markets got super bullish on this news recently, but we are now learning there are massive outbreaks again. We find it very tough to believe China will back off fully on this stance, despite the economic carnage the draconian lockdowns have caused. The factories where Apple&#39;s products are made is still subject to restrictions. Cases are skyrocketing. We would love to be wrong, but we think you are going to see more COVID restrictions. To help meet some of the demand, Foxconn will boost production in India but this is a longer-term impact as it will take a few years to staff as needed.</p><p>These concerns have led to downgrades to shipment estimates. JP Morgan sees the impact being as many as 5 million less iPhones in the holiday quarter, and that is just for the 14. At about $1,000 a pop let&#39;s say, well, you can do the math, its impacting $5 billion of shipments. That is a problem.</p><p>Here is the other issue. Apple has to be very careful. If they irritate the very sensitive Chinese government, it could put about 1/5th of its revenues at stake.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1581e9fbec92a0c8dde081063f426c2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple 10-K October 2022</span></p><p>Folks, there are tons of sales in China. So it has to be very cautious and let China call the shots over there. If China hinted at some sort of ban or even limitations, the stock would crater.</p><p>For now, we believe the company will toe the line, and hope that China does ease its aggressive fight against COVID to help production. While the iPhones will eventually be shipped and revenue still come in, this is a good way to alienate customers who may not be as loyal as others and push them to other devices. This is a true risk.</p><h2>Take home</h2><p>Honestly we are bearish in the short-term, but want to use the weakness when it comes to do some buying. We rate the shares as bearish here, because we are near-term bearish. However, we have set up a trade. We have to wait for the pullback. The market has rallied hard. A few bad sessions is all it will take to lower Apple shares further. Any more negative news from China, or other production issues will hurt. Growth has stalled, and that is not even factoring in the potential impacts of a recession. Let it fall another 10% or so.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Quad 7 Capital</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Digesting This Souring Pie\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.Valuation is stretched ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285438248","content_text":"SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.Valuation is stretched considering growth has slowed to a crawl, and that does not even account for what a mild or moderate recession could look like.There are major issues with production.Let it fall.kimberrywood/iStock via Getty ImagesWe want to start this column by stating that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of our core holdings, and our analysts all own it in their personal long-term accounts for close to a decade. But, when Apple surged inlate summer, we started selling chunks of the position. We are short-term bearish here, though we are buyers lower. Look, this is one of the greatest companies ever. No doubt. But, this is still a stock, and we like to trade around the core position. In this column, we highlight fundamental concerns that we have in the near-term. We are glad we were selling on strength in September and again in late October. Now, we sold more small pieces of more than just Apple, but it was our take that we could come back to Apple and repurchase the shares at better levels, and a more reasonable valuation. Shares are now down about 12% from where we sold some, and about 7% from our last round of selling. We want the stock to come lower before coming back in. The market has been up big the last few weeks, and Apple has not done much. Apple also has a lot of problems in China. It also has chip issues, and there are questions on demand. We would let it drop ideally to $130 again, which we think is easily in the cards. It will only take a few bad sessions, and we are in an interest rate hiking cycle. Like it or not, the market right now may be a touch overbought, even though it was recovering from an oversold situation. Use this to your advantage to compound gains in this great stock. Let it come down.BAD BEAT InvestingHere is how we would play this. This trade is outlined for possible new money coming into the stock. We do think we are in a mild buy zone in the mid $140s, and a strong buy zone in the low 130s. We suspect shares will fall, we are bearish short-term, but here is how we would get long.The playTarget entry 1: $144-$145 (25% of position)Target entry 2: $135-$136 (30% of position)Target entry 3: $130-$131 (45% of position)With the VIX down to about 21, call options can be purchased. Frankly, with the high volume and liquidity, we like LEAPS. Go out 13 months, and look to $150 strikes. You can also scale into them, and look to exit on a rally that puts you up at least 30%. Lots of time, and the calls are cheaper than they have been in months. We are short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.Performance discussionThe performance of the company remains strong. The recently reported Q4 was well covered by many of our colleagues but we would like to reiterate a few highlights as they are integral to deciding to still hold a core position, even if we are trading around ours.Yes, Q3 2022 was another fourth-quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion. These revenues rose nicely by 8% year-over-year. Folks, once again there was solid growth in products and services. The company just grows reliably as it penetrates new markets, and continues to be a dominating brand. The products revenue jumped 9% to $71.0 billion vs. $65.1 billion a year ago. Within the products there was strength in all lines except iPad. Could consumers be saturated with products? The question is whether consumers will now delay upgrades with a possible recession coming. The risk is real. It does not mean the company is going to see massive declines. But the pace of growth could potentially stall to flat if the recession is moderate. iPhone continues to be a winner, with iPhone revenue of $42.6 billion vs. $38.9 billion a year ago, a 9.5% gain. Winning. Mac revenue rose a strong 25% to $11.5 billion. Strong, but this strength was offset by lower sales of iPads, where revenue fell 13.1% to $7.2 billion. But accessories and wearables remained strong as revenue grew 8.5% to $9.7 billion. At the same time, service revenue remains solid, which grew to $19.2 billion.We think it is worth noting the gains, because it suggests demand is still robust. There have been questions on demand for devices, but thus far, it remains strong. The holiday quarter here will be telling, and we standby the risk to demand should recession hit. Margins remains strong, as the cost of sales rose at a commensurate pace with revenue growth. Gross margins were 53.7%. Stellar, but did dip from 54.0% last year. Very mildly bearish, but something to watch as inflation is leading to higher input and material cost, as well as labor. Operating expenses rose over 15%, with higher research and development costs weighing. Still, the company generated over $24 billion in operating cash flow, which is strong.Overall, the EPS of $1.29 rose 4% from a year ago, and surpassed consensus by $0.02. Annual EPS was $6.11. At $150 the stock is relatively expensive at 24.5X trailing EPS. On a forward looking basis, we have concerns over impacts to both supply and demand, as well as rising costs. This makes us justified in our selling 20-25 points higher. Shares are expensive, but the growth was 9% from 2021 to 2022. We are overpaying for modest growth, even with all of the amazing innovation from the company, the solid cash hoard, share repurchases, and the dividends. Mathematically, there are concerns, but this is why we view $135 or less as a good entry. At that level, 22X is more reasonable, and, when we think about fiscal 2023 earnings, we are factoring in minimal growth, and continued cost pressures. We are looking for revenue to grow 2-3%, and EPS to be up 2%-5%, assuming we do face a mild recession, and lower if it is worse. An early look suggests $6.25-$6.45, not counting any possible future share repurchases. This is why we are cautious, but at the midpoint, and at our last leg, just over 20X EPS. That would still be richly valued, but we still assign brand name premium here, and have to give credit for the huge cash on hand.Now, why do we think shares can and will fall?There are several ongoing issues. Do not mistake possible slower rate hikes as lower rates. We are still hiking here folks. The Fed wants a slowdown in the economy, and if we see unemployment build, wages normalize, and a still elevated dollar, Apple will face pressure. It will not be immune. This is just reality. But we have deeper issues on the supply side of things, as well as possible demand concerns.China is a huge risk here. Apple would likely love to be divorced from the company if it could, but right now, it relies heavily on international production. Folks, the ongoing Chinese \"zero-Covid policy\" has caused huge issues with new iPhone 14 Pro production. With all of the COVID lockdowns many employees have left Foxconn, and now they are down nearly 100,000 employees. They simply cannot replace them in time. As such, two weeks ago Apple warned shipments would be heavily impacted. The supplier just does not have the capacity to meet the order demand, but is trying to tweak production schedules in China.Now, supposedly, there has been hopes of China easing off its zero COVID policy. Markets got super bullish on this news recently, but we are now learning there are massive outbreaks again. We find it very tough to believe China will back off fully on this stance, despite the economic carnage the draconian lockdowns have caused. The factories where Apple's products are made is still subject to restrictions. Cases are skyrocketing. We would love to be wrong, but we think you are going to see more COVID restrictions. To help meet some of the demand, Foxconn will boost production in India but this is a longer-term impact as it will take a few years to staff as needed.These concerns have led to downgrades to shipment estimates. JP Morgan sees the impact being as many as 5 million less iPhones in the holiday quarter, and that is just for the 14. At about $1,000 a pop let's say, well, you can do the math, its impacting $5 billion of shipments. That is a problem.Here is the other issue. Apple has to be very careful. If they irritate the very sensitive Chinese government, it could put about 1/5th of its revenues at stake.Apple 10-K October 2022Folks, there are tons of sales in China. So it has to be very cautious and let China call the shots over there. If China hinted at some sort of ban or even limitations, the stock would crater.For now, we believe the company will toe the line, and hope that China does ease its aggressive fight against COVID to help production. While the iPhones will eventually be shipped and revenue still come in, this is a good way to alienate customers who may not be as loyal as others and push them to other devices. This is a true risk.Take homeHonestly we are bearish in the short-term, but want to use the weakness when it comes to do some buying. We rate the shares as bearish here, because we are near-term bearish. However, we have set up a trade. We have to wait for the pullback. The market has rallied hard. A few bad sessions is all it will take to lower Apple shares further. Any more negative news from China, or other production issues will hurt. Growth has stalled, and that is not even factoring in the potential impacts of a recession. Let it fall another 10% or so.This article is written by Quad 7 Capital for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}