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MinimalLee
MinimalLee
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2021-03-16
More cannibis for the world!!
Why Aphria and Tilray Stocks Jumped Monday
The companies are one step closer to a merger. What happened Shares of Canadian marijuana company Ap
Why Aphria and Tilray Stocks Jumped Monday
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MinimalLee
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2021-03-09
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Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher
Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching
Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher
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2021-03-09
Warren Buffet sets the trend!!!
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","listText":"More cannibis for the world!! ","text":"More cannibis for the world!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325948473","repostId":"1197824300","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197824300","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615859575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197824300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Aphria and Tilray Stocks Jumped Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197824300","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The companies are one step closer to a merger.\nWhat happened\nShares of Canadian marijuana company Ap","content":"<p>The companies are one step closer to a merger.</p>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>Shares of Canadian marijuana company <b>Aphria</b> (NASDAQ:APHA) were moving up Monday, as it gets one step closer to its planned merger with <b>Tilray</b> (NASDAQ:TLRY). Aphria and Tilray shares were both trading more than 10% higher than Friday's closing price.</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Today the companies announced special shareholder meetings will occur in mid-April to approve the previously announced merger. Aphria's special shareholder meeting is scheduled for April 14, and Tilray shareholder votes will be tallied April 16. The boards of directors for both companies unanimously support the merger.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>The combination will create one of the largest global cannabis companies. Leading up to the transaction, both companies have continued to expand their businesses.</p>\n<p>Last month, Tilray announced a new distribution agreement with U.K. medical cannabis distributor Grow Pharma. Under the agreement, Tilray's pharmaceutical-grade medical cannabis products will be imported and distributed by Grow Pharma in the U.K. \"Regulations are progressing as more and more countries across Europe are recognizing the benefits of medical cannabis,\" Tilray Europe's managing director, Sascha Mielcarek, said in a statement. Separately, it announced it has exported its first medical cannabis shipment to Spain, and it has received the first and only market authorization for medical cannabis products in Portugal.</p>\n<p>Aphria acquired U.S.-based SweetWater Brewing Company last year, giving it infrastructure if marijuana achieves federal legalization in the U.S. Irwin Simon, Aphria's CEO, who will lead the combined company, issued a statement saying, \"As a combined company, we expect to continue to pursue [mergers and acquisitions] in the U.S. across the branded consumer products industry that are accretive and can parlay into complementary cannabis products when we are able to do so.\"</p>\n<p>Investors are moving both stocks higher today, signaling approval of the merger and its potential.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Aphria and Tilray Stocks Jumped Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Aphria and Tilray Stocks Jumped Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 09:52 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-aphria-stock-jumped-6-monday/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The companies are one step closer to a merger.\nWhat happened\nShares of Canadian marijuana company Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) were moving up Monday, as it gets one step closer to its planned merger with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-aphria-stock-jumped-6-monday/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APHA":"Aphria Inc.","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-aphria-stock-jumped-6-monday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197824300","content_text":"The companies are one step closer to a merger.\nWhat happened\nShares of Canadian marijuana company Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) were moving up Monday, as it gets one step closer to its planned merger with Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY). Aphria and Tilray shares were both trading more than 10% higher than Friday's closing price.\nSo what\nToday the companies announced special shareholder meetings will occur in mid-April to approve the previously announced merger. Aphria's special shareholder meeting is scheduled for April 14, and Tilray shareholder votes will be tallied April 16. The boards of directors for both companies unanimously support the merger.\nNow what\nThe combination will create one of the largest global cannabis companies. Leading up to the transaction, both companies have continued to expand their businesses.\nLast month, Tilray announced a new distribution agreement with U.K. medical cannabis distributor Grow Pharma. Under the agreement, Tilray's pharmaceutical-grade medical cannabis products will be imported and distributed by Grow Pharma in the U.K. \"Regulations are progressing as more and more countries across Europe are recognizing the benefits of medical cannabis,\" Tilray Europe's managing director, Sascha Mielcarek, said in a statement. Separately, it announced it has exported its first medical cannabis shipment to Spain, and it has received the first and only market authorization for medical cannabis products in Portugal.\nAphria acquired U.S.-based SweetWater Brewing Company last year, giving it infrastructure if marijuana achieves federal legalization in the U.S. Irwin Simon, Aphria's CEO, who will lead the combined company, issued a statement saying, \"As a combined company, we expect to continue to pursue [mergers and acquisitions] in the U.S. across the branded consumer products industry that are accretive and can parlay into complementary cannabis products when we are able to do so.\"\nInvestors are moving both stocks higher today, signaling approval of the merger and its potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9,"APHA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323964110,"gmtCreate":1615300021830,"gmtModify":1704780801106,"author":{"id":"3574938519580407","authorId":"3574938519580407","name":"MinimalLee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574938519580407","idStr":"3574938519580407"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How do I leave a comment? ","listText":"How do I leave a comment? ","text":"How do I leave a comment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323964110","repostId":"1158287133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158287133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615298882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158287133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158287133","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching","content":"<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.</p>\n<p>I am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.</p>\n<p>New research from the National Bureau of Economic Research calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.</p>\n<p>The study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”</p>\n<p><b>Price-weighted</b></p>\n<p>One of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.</p>\n<p>Consider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.</p>\n<p><b>Split adjustments</b></p>\n<p>One consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is now in danger of entering into a bear market.</p>\n<p>Another of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.</p>\n<p>Another peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.</p>\n<p><b>Dividends</b></p>\n<p>By the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.</p>\n<p>You might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e99e55881bbacc9fb4c6753120044e2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p>\n<p>Notice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.</p>\n<p><b>Could the future be different than the past?</b></p>\n<p>The bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.</p>\n<p>If so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.</p>\n<p>Crucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.</p>\n<p>Whether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.</p>\n<p>This means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”</p>\n<p>To be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 22:08 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1158287133","content_text":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.\nI am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.\nNew research from the National Bureau of Economic Research calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.\nThe study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”\nPrice-weighted\nOne of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.\nConsider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.\nSplit adjustments\nOne consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is now in danger of entering into a bear market.\nAnother of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.\nAnother peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.\nDividends\nBy the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.\nYou might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)\n\nNotice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.\nCould the future be different than the past?\nThe bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.\nIf so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.\nCrucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.\nWhether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.\nThis means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”\nTo be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323910494,"gmtCreate":1615298065718,"gmtModify":1704780762504,"author":{"id":"3574938519580407","authorId":"3574938519580407","name":"MinimalLee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574938519580407","idStr":"3574938519580407"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Warren Buffet sets the trend!!! ","listText":"Warren Buffet sets the trend!!! 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