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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
q
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
ok
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
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han妈
han妈
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2022-07-11
q
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-11
OK
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-10
a
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?
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han妈
han妈
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2022-07-10
ok
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe falls?
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han妈
han妈
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2022-06-27
y
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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han妈
han妈
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2022-06-22
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han妈
han妈
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2022-06-22
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han妈
han妈
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2022-06-18
ok
Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20
这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。
Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20
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The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MPC":"马拉松原油","BP":"英国石油",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"BP":0.9,"MPC":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076110971,"gmtCreate":1657808489793,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110971","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142262047","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657807960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142262047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-14 22:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142262047","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14th, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-14 22:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14th, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MPC":"马拉松原油","BP":"英国石油",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"BP":0.9,"MPC":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506308,"gmtCreate":1657549288904,"gmtModify":1676536023652,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506308","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123417061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657549065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123417061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 22:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123417061","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"MLCO":"新濠博亚娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123417061","content_text":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(11日)起至18日期间,暂停所有工商业活动公司及场所运作,所有人员要留在住所,除非因执行必要的工作、维生需求而购买必要生活物资、或因其他紧急原因外出,而且成年人外出要佩戴KN95或以上标准口罩,机场亦只限货运。澳门行政法务司司长张永春表示,措施目的是为将社会流动量降至最低,否认是封城,亦非全民禁足,对市民日常生活无大影响;但无法预计一周后措施是否延长,若疫情发展更严重,不排除措施会“再加码、再收紧”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MLCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506945,"gmtCreate":1657549279088,"gmtModify":1676536023651,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506945","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123417061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657549065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123417061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 22:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123417061","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"MLCO":"新濠博亚娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123417061","content_text":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(11日)起至18日期间,暂停所有工商业活动公司及场所运作,所有人员要留在住所,除非因执行必要的工作、维生需求而购买必要生活物资、或因其他紧急原因外出,而且成年人外出要佩戴KN95或以上标准口罩,机场亦只限货运。澳门行政法务司司长张永春表示,措施目的是为将社会流动量降至最低,否认是封城,亦非全民禁足,对市民日常生活无大影响;但无法预计一周后措施是否延长,若疫情发展更严重,不排除措施会“再加码、再收紧”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MLCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309883,"gmtCreate":1657466809643,"gmtModify":1676536010807,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","idStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a","listText":"a","text":"a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309883","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and the upward trend of the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the BoJ's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and the upward trend of the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the BoJ's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡,到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题(当然,安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素):油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索,但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局(图1);而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC(收益率曲线控制政策)和政策宽松,现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学(通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济)的拥虿(图2)。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析:安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策,不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下,下半年至少需要注意三点风险:日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间,而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力;美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现;对于国内来说,通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策,日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题:为什么需要改变?为什么不会抛弃?如何改变?疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大,而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策,将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近,有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求:一方面,YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境;另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是:通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀;为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看,YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上:第一,经过疫情的洗礼,全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影,当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代,日本同样不能幸免,这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的;第二,在经济高波动的情况下,顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡,这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会;第三,缺乏灵活的调节机制,容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低,2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限,日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买,2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行(图5);而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下,为了避免债券收益率升破上限,日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量,可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是,YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢(作为政策目标,现在为0%)和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间(但调整频率偏低)。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似,而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下,人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢,但是依旧保留波动区间的限制(图6,当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制)。不过我们认为,日本央行不会放弃YCC,同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一,从短期看,有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴(图7),日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二,从中长期政策来看,“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路,而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本,家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强,通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用(图8和9),而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三,从国家和政策定位上,至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国,早已放弃了日元国际化的野心,这意味着和美联储不同,保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位,即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜,与之相对,无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位,还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度,都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平,保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变?下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上(现在为0.25%),而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债,这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸(图12),我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置,以7年期为例(按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算),在不改变基准政策利率的情况下,10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方(图13),考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯(幅度通常为5bp的整数倍),下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%,本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看,在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制,上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确,日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下,通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于,历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制(例如固定汇率机制)不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进,这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利,造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做,日债会崩盘?不会,其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面,日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方,海外机构的占比仅在10%左右(图14);另一方面,投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货(流动性更好),在现货市场流动性不足(期货交割不方便)的情况下,做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的(主要在日本央行议息会议前,图15)。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间,会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营,它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外,作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体,YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化,很可能会使得日本调整(很可能是减少)对外固定收益投资的敞口,进一步加剧市场动荡。日元:在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在,尤其是议息会议前后。一方面,在日本央行行动前,美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差,导致日元走弱;另一方面,在美联储货币政策转向前,资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策,机构在做空日债期货的同时,做空日元是很好的对冲仓位(日本央行调整政策,日债期货赚钱;日本央行按兵不动,日元空头赚钱)。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%,创下1980年以来的新高,其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨,岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后,来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策,日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响,我们觉得主要关注两个点:一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚,二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚,可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代,21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息(图16),但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代,政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后,这也导致债券收益率的高点(或者二次冲高点)会出现在衰退期间(图17)。除此之外,日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”,中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏,以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说,抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事,从市场逻辑看,下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大,我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%,触及3%:从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看,海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长,但国内,至少在第三季度,经济快速复苏,服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期,叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火,这对于债市明显不是好消息;而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷,基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松,这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看,日本货币政策调整前,日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束,即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在,人民币还是存在贬值压力,叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”,货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外,又多了一层内外博弈的色彩,如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成,债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说,通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期,国内债市面临调整,叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险,我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎,尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块,需要控制风险。风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,国内疫情扩散超市场预期;欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退,欧美央行被迫提前转向,长端债券收益率提前回落,日本YCC政策压力减小;OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识,原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌,全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309967,"gmtCreate":1657466798359,"gmtModify":1676536010830,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709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20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and the upward trend of the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the BoJ's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe falls?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the accidental death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the accidental attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that connects these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been delayed in effectively increasing output to alleviate the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still adheres to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but in the context of overseas inflation being more unbearable than recession, there are at least three risks to be aware of in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly aggravate the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point of U.S. Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening of the inflation and monetary policy normalization narrative will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>For the YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We answer three main questions: Why is change needed? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of Japanese yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>At present, the anachronism of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the deflationary shadow of the past decade,</b>At present and in the next decade, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is also not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of YCC policy; Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify the economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously unsuitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lack of flexible adjustment mechanisms, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC range adjustment is very low, and the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021 since its launch in 2016.</p><p>The main reason for the procyclicity of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is procyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to buy bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the balance sheet expansion of the Bank of Japan was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase its bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most attractive point for speculative funds is that YCC policy is inflexible and its adjustment often lags behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable hub (as the policy target, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is on the low side).<b>This is quite similar to the pricing of RMB exchange rate before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchor center, but it still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from RBA abandoning YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), Japanese bond yields and the upward trend of the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japanese economy</b>And the YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth are lying flat, the borrowing demand of households and enterprises is still weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rate and active fiscal expenditure play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9), and the important pillars behind it are looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared with other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least in finance, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States, and has long given up its ambition of internationalizing the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Guaranteeing low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy rank first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan holds more than 50% of Japanese bonds in the market, and it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>On the contrary, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of RMB, it needs to ensure that the bond yield is at a reasonable level, and the liquidity and opening of the bond market to the outside world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to take a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which causes the yield curve of Japanese bonds to convex downward at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the spread of 10-year and 7-year maturities at the recent highs of 0.27% and 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the ceiling level of 10-year Japanese bonds is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering the market sentiment and the habit of the Bank of Japan to adjust the range (the magnitude is usually an integer multiple of 5bp),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>The policy signal of the ceiling interest rate adjustment is clearer than that of the central interest rate. On the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds, the Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently.</p><p>We believe that the reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations is mainly that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not appropriate to fully guide market expectations and progress step by step, which will lead to more speculative fund bets and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short-selling futures are mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the BoJ's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure of the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion level.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to widen the YCC range will lead to another pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates caused by the changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (and probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed income investments, further aggravating market turmoil.</p><p>Yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan acted, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve will objectively widen the interest rate difference between Japan and the United States, resulting in the weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve turns, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan. While institutions short Japanese bond futures, shorting Japanese yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, and Japanese bond futures make money; The Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We see 140 as a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40 percent in May year-on-year, a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reevaluate its current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward turning point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, the pressure of domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year may be greater.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will appear later, perhaps not until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policy should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. debt in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s,</b>Since the 21st century, the pattern that the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields appeared before the recession is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the 21st century, the important reason why the yield peg of 10-year U.S. Treasury tends to appear before recession is<b>The Federal Reserve tends to take the lead in cutting interest rates forward when downward pressure on the economy is high</b>(Figure 16), but current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like the 1970s-1980s, with policy shifts often occurring after the start of a recession, which also leads to bond yield highs (or secondary highs) occurring during a recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, putting aside the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the yield of 10-year bonds will stand at 2.90% in stages in the second half of the year, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are suffering from inflation and recession, but at home, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to CPI staging 3 or even exceeding market expectations, superimposing overseas inflation narratives to fanfare the flames, which is obviously not good news for the bond market; While<b>The experience of surging pork prices and falling bond interest rates in 2019 is not of reference significance in 2022</b>— — At that time, the macro background was that global inflation was sluggish, and the central banks turned to easing one after another under the weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>Even with the aura of tariff reduction and exemption of the United States on China, there is still pressure of depreciation of the RMB, and the \"firmness\" of the yield of the US dollar and US bonds is superimposed. In addition to the logic of returning to normal, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game color.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation and stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returns to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage of bond market will accelerate the adjustment of bond market</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields is postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustment, and the risk of \"gray rhino\" from the Bank of Japan is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>Especially some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>Under the tightening of overseas monetary policies, external demand declined, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; In the third quarter, Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; In the second half of the year, OPEC greatly increased production beyond expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a consensus. The substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to the fall of oil prices and the easing of global inflationary pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡,到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题(当然,安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素):油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索,但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局(图1);而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC(收益率曲线控制政策)和政策宽松,现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学(通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济)的拥虿(图2)。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析:安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策,不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下,下半年至少需要注意三点风险:日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间,而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力;美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现;对于国内来说,通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策,日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题:为什么需要改变?为什么不会抛弃?如何改变?疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大,而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策,将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近,有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求:一方面,YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境;另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是:通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀;为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看,YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上:第一,经过疫情的洗礼,全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影,当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代,日本同样不能幸免,这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的;第二,在经济高波动的情况下,顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡,这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会;第三,缺乏灵活的调节机制,容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低,2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限,日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买,2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行(图5);而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下,为了避免债券收益率升破上限,日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量,可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是,YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢(作为政策目标,现在为0%)和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间(但调整频率偏低)。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似,而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下,人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢,但是依旧保留波动区间的限制(图6,当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制)。不过我们认为,日本央行不会放弃YCC,同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一,从短期看,有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴(图7),日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二,从中长期政策来看,“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路,而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本,家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强,通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用(图8和9),而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三,从国家和政策定位上,至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国,早已放弃了日元国际化的野心,这意味着和美联储不同,保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位,即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜,与之相对,无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位,还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度,都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平,保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变?下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上(现在为0.25%),而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债,这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸(图12),我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置,以7年期为例(按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算),在不改变基准政策利率的情况下,10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方(图13),考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯(幅度通常为5bp的整数倍),下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%,本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看,在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制,上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确,日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下,通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于,历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制(例如固定汇率机制)不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进,这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利,造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做,日债会崩盘?不会,其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面,日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方,海外机构的占比仅在10%左右(图14);另一方面,投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货(流动性更好),在现货市场流动性不足(期货交割不方便)的情况下,做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的(主要在日本央行议息会议前,图15)。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间,会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营,它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外,作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体,YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化,很可能会使得日本调整(很可能是减少)对外固定收益投资的敞口,进一步加剧市场动荡。日元:在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在,尤其是议息会议前后。一方面,在日本央行行动前,美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差,导致日元走弱;另一方面,在美联储货币政策转向前,资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策,机构在做空日债期货的同时,做空日元是很好的对冲仓位(日本央行调整政策,日债期货赚钱;日本央行按兵不动,日元空头赚钱)。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%,创下1980年以来的新高,其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨,岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后,来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策,日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响,我们觉得主要关注两个点:一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚,二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚,可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代,21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息(图16),但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代,政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后,这也导致债券收益率的高点(或者二次冲高点)会出现在衰退期间(图17)。除此之外,日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”,中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏,以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说,抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事,从市场逻辑看,下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大,我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%,触及3%:从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看,海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长,但国内,至少在第三季度,经济快速复苏,服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期,叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火,这对于债市明显不是好消息;而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷,基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松,这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看,日本货币政策调整前,日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束,即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在,人民币还是存在贬值压力,叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”,货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外,又多了一层内外博弈的色彩,如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成,债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说,通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期,国内债市面临调整,叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险,我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎,尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块,需要控制风险。风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,国内疫情扩散超市场预期;欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退,欧美央行被迫提前转向,长端债券收益率提前回落,日本YCC政策压力减小;OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识,原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌,全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046629861,"gmtCreate":1656341737553,"gmtModify":1676535809694,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575347610709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10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130766759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20</b>, because June 19 (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It is worth mentioning that this holiday is quite \"young\" and was legalized only last year. It is the first time in the United States since \"Martin Luther King Day\" in 1983<b>The first new national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you smooth investment</p><p>Tiger Securities</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 20 (Monday) and open as usual from June 21 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed a decree to designate June 19th of each year as a national holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The name of the holiday is \"Juneteenth\", which is taken from the combination of June (June) and Nineteenth (Nineteenth). Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden with 'Grandmother Juneteenth' Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps it is precisely because Juneteenth is very \"young\" that at this time last year, the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) also had a \"disagreement\" with the US stock market because of this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges are open as usual.</b>\"Exchanges discretion the status of operations for federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours,\" the SEC said. The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth in 2022 would be closed for the holidays.</p><p>At present, it seems that such \"differences\" will not repeat itself this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-15 10:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20</b>, because June 19 (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It is worth mentioning that this holiday is quite \"young\" and was legalized only last year. It is the first time in the United States since \"Martin Luther King Day\" in 1983<b>The first new national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you smooth investment</p><p>Tiger Securities</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 20 (Monday) and open as usual from June 21 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed a decree to designate June 19th of each year as a national holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The name of the holiday is \"Juneteenth\", which is taken from the combination of June (June) and Nineteenth (Nineteenth). Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden with 'Grandmother Juneteenth' Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps it is precisely because Juneteenth is very \"young\" that at this time last year, the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) also had a \"disagreement\" with the US stock market because of this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges are open as usual.</b>\"Exchanges discretion the status of operations for federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours,\" the SEC said. The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth in 2022 would be closed for the holidays.</p><p>At present, it seems that such \"differences\" will not repeat itself this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3beebfa3e0137570abe14d50f470080d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130766759","content_text":"尊敬的投资者:美股将于6月20日(星期一)休市,因为6月19日(星期日)是美国的联邦假日(六月节)。值得一提的是,这一节日相当“年轻”,去年才被合法化,是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股6月20日(周一)休市,6月21日(周二)起照常开市。港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍2021年6月17日,美国总统拜登签署法令,将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结,节日名称为“Juneteenth”,该名称取自June(六月)和Nineteenth(十九)的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”,去年的这个时候,美国SEC(证券交易委员会)还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”:SEC放假,而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。SEC表示:“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态,我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称,将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}