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小老二

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- 小老二小老二
  ·2022-07-04
  💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-16
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-15
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-15
  ✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-07
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-06
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-05
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-04
  ????
  Financial markets have become "hyperinflationary," and money printers have destroyed the value investing system.
  既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定
  Financial markets have become "hyperinflationary," and money printers have destroyed the value investing system.
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-04
  ????
  Autohome-S begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.
  3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价
  Autohome-S begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.
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- 小老二小老二
  ·2021-03-03
  。。。。。。。。
  Nikola's fraud was exposed, so why did Jia Yueting and FF still dare to take this path?
  Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年
  Nikola's fraud was exposed, so why did Jia Yueting and FF still dare to take this path?
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11:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial markets have become \"hyperinflationary,\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116256529","media":"西泽研究院","summary":"既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定","content":"<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, then a crisis has already occurred. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. Some stocks used to cost 10 yuan to buy one share, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>From this perspective, financial markets may have different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more bearish calls and warnings in the market, but the bubble remains resilient; that's just how volatile the market is. Remember one thing: the one who tied the knot must untie it. Since the bubble was inflated by monetary easing, the turning point will still be determined by monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main driver of this leverage increase is almost entirely the government, which means that the main driver of the bubble is the base currency—which is particularly consistent with the historical monetary conditions of hyperinflation, namely, the Federal Reserve printing money directly rather than commercial banks generating credit. Of course, the current broad money supply M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is direct government money printing a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared to commercial banks creating money by lending according to risk control standards for the real economy, direct government money printing is often just a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior and is not directly related to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, rather than saying that the volatile market caused value investing to fail (Buffett's company profits fell by 48% against the backdrop of the 2020 bull market), it is more accurate to say that money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is less about a crazy asset bubble and more about \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are comparing the US money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century.</b>This idea led to a frenzy of snapping up Bitcoin, which, from another perspective, is essentially the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the cryptocurrency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Besides Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation, or...<b>The collapse of legal tender has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are experiencing a surge in prices. This is a very bad sign, meaning that hyperinflation of paper money will quickly spread to the commodity market, forming a real macroeconomic event that will have a significant impact on the general public.</p><p>It's all just a matter of time—the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, money printers do not seem to have woken up yet – except for China's regulators. The attitude of Chinese regulators is very clear: to prepare to hedge against the crisis before the bubble bursts. The speech by Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was thought-</p><p>The bubble could burst at any time.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained sober, seemingly trying to prevent the fire before it happens. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunken tango\" and is unwilling to wake up. They selectively ignored even exit signals like soaring Treasury Bond yields, only saying, \"You can never wake up someone who is pretending to be asleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week, but fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Federal Reserve has no choice but to go down a dark path. The printers of the \"world dollar\" are always this willful. Perhaps it is imprinted on the ideal of a harmonious society where humanity will enter into distribution according to need. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? The Buddha said: All illusions are like dreams, illusions, bubbles, and shadows. Who can put down the money printing press and become a Buddha on the spot?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators have the resolve is because they were the first to control the epidemic and were fortunate enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period of supply constraints caused by the epidemic. This is reflected in the strong net output representing the external cycle.<b>Since the external cycle can support the entire cyclical system, the real estate bubble, which represents the internal cycle, can be seriously addressed.</b>。 More importantly, given the dangerous situation where the Federal Reserve's unbridled money printing could lead to a global monetary flood, how can we build a flood control dike to prevent international hot money and speculative capital from exploiting retail investors?</p><p>At this point, let's not talk about the free market, let's not talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes so frantically in the market, the market has already malfunctioned—the price signals for resource allocation are disordered, and speculating on real estate, Moutai, and Bitcoin is worse than working hard on the real economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Bitcoin Giant Whale Grayscale Fund held over $20 billion in Bitcoin as of February this year, and continues to increase its holdings.</p><p>Therefore, the country's financial capacity is particularly important at this time It refers to a country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control capabilities, and its ability to mobilize a country's financial resources to allocate resources to win the battle against risks. Similar to the 1997 battle between the mainland and Hong Kong to defend the Hong Kong dollar.</p><p>Because the pandemic continues and monetary easing continues, the risk of flooding remains significant. International speculative funds are like bloodthirsty monsters, searching for prey to satisfy their appetite for expected returns. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on hand, followed by the recently passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue package. The deficit ratio has hit a world record, and the MMT is just a cover for shame; once it's lifted, there's no need to care about anything anymore.</p><p>Moreover, during the crisis of the pandemic, all of this was just, necessary, and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that during this major pandemic crisis,<b>The \"savior-like\" ability of money printers in various countries</b>—What could have been a world-class Great Depression and crisis was miraculously turned around by money printers through money printing, saving countless families and businesses from unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be this magical? Can the means of distribution completely replace production? Can emergency antibiotics replace a normal diet? The money printers were also very clear-headed, knowing that the task ahead might be even more difficult:</p><p>How do I exit? How can we return to normalcy?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible; monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which, in layman's terms, is \"irreversible.\" The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect,\" which means that the processes from poverty to wealth and from wealth to poverty, from frugality to extravagance and from extravagance to frugality, are asymmetrical. Monetary easing and asset bubbles, from central banks to the market, will generate huge and irreversible path dependencies. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically speaking, releasing too much water...<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces monetary equilibrium with real equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Money is unpredictable and will randomly deviate from its real value. Some scholars have compared money to the quantum, the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the more important consequence of M-CAPM is that it pushes everything into the channels of behavioral finance, psychological finance, and narrative economics. Quantum measurement is inaccurate; it cannot obtain both position and velocity simultaneously. Schrödinger's cat, life and death, rise and fall, depend on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knew that the former dared not stop, while the former knew that the latter knew, and the latter knew that the former knew that the latter knew... Such overlapping beliefs are indeed tender and poignant. Sometimes it seems complex and fragile, and sometimes it seems incredibly rigid. Therefore, at this time, do not use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are wake-up calls in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>There will only be more huge fluctuations.</b>。 The so-called self-fulfillment of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has taken shape.</p><p>And the turning point will only ever come at the climax of the party. And at that moment, no one was awake, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Image source: Baidu)</span></p>","source":"lsy1582938116590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial markets have become \"hyperinflationary,\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial markets have become \"hyperinflationary,\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">西泽研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, then a crisis has already occurred. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. Some stocks used to cost 10 yuan to buy one share, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>From this perspective, financial markets may have different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more bearish calls and warnings in the market, but the bubble remains resilient; that's just how volatile the market is. Remember one thing: the one who tied the knot must untie it. Since the bubble was inflated by monetary easing, the turning point will still be determined by monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main driver of this leverage increase is almost entirely the government, which means that the main driver of the bubble is the base currency—which is particularly consistent with the historical monetary conditions of hyperinflation, namely, the Federal Reserve printing money directly rather than commercial banks generating credit. Of course, the current broad money supply M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is direct government money printing a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared to commercial banks creating money by lending according to risk control standards for the real economy, direct government money printing is often just a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior and is not directly related to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, rather than saying that the volatile market caused value investing to fail (Buffett's company profits fell by 48% against the backdrop of the 2020 bull market), it is more accurate to say that money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is less about a crazy asset bubble and more about \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are comparing the US money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century.</b>This idea led to a frenzy of snapping up Bitcoin, which, from another perspective, is essentially the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the cryptocurrency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Besides Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation, or...<b>The collapse of legal tender has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are experiencing a surge in prices. This is a very bad sign, meaning that hyperinflation of paper money will quickly spread to the commodity market, forming a real macroeconomic event that will have a significant impact on the general public.</p><p>It's all just a matter of time—the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, money printers do not seem to have woken up yet – except for China's regulators. The attitude of Chinese regulators is very clear: to prepare to hedge against the crisis before the bubble bursts. The speech by Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was thought-</p><p>The bubble could burst at any time.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained sober, seemingly trying to prevent the fire before it happens. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunken tango\" and is unwilling to wake up. They selectively ignored even exit signals like soaring Treasury Bond yields, only saying, \"You can never wake up someone who is pretending to be asleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week, but fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Federal Reserve has no choice but to go down a dark path. The printers of the \"world dollar\" are always this willful. Perhaps it is imprinted on the ideal of a harmonious society where humanity will enter into distribution according to need. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? The Buddha said: All illusions are like dreams, illusions, bubbles, and shadows. Who can put down the money printing press and become a Buddha on the spot?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators have the resolve is because they were the first to control the epidemic and were fortunate enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period of supply constraints caused by the epidemic. This is reflected in the strong net output representing the external cycle.<b>Since the external cycle can support the entire cyclical system, the real estate bubble, which represents the internal cycle, can be seriously addressed.</b>。 More importantly, given the dangerous situation where the Federal Reserve's unbridled money printing could lead to a global monetary flood, how can we build a flood control dike to prevent international hot money and speculative capital from exploiting retail investors?</p><p>At this point, let's not talk about the free market, let's not talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes so frantically in the market, the market has already malfunctioned—the price signals for resource allocation are disordered, and speculating on real estate, Moutai, and Bitcoin is worse than working hard on the real economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Bitcoin Giant Whale Grayscale Fund held over $20 billion in Bitcoin as of February this year, and continues to increase its holdings.</p><p>Therefore, the country's financial capacity is particularly important at this time It refers to a country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control capabilities, and its ability to mobilize a country's financial resources to allocate resources to win the battle against risks. Similar to the 1997 battle between the mainland and Hong Kong to defend the Hong Kong dollar.</p><p>Because the pandemic continues and monetary easing continues, the risk of flooding remains significant. International speculative funds are like bloodthirsty monsters, searching for prey to satisfy their appetite for expected returns. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on hand, followed by the recently passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue package. The deficit ratio has hit a world record, and the MMT is just a cover for shame; once it's lifted, there's no need to care about anything anymore.</p><p>Moreover, during the crisis of the pandemic, all of this was just, necessary, and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that during this major pandemic crisis,<b>The \"savior-like\" ability of money printers in various countries</b>—What could have been a world-class Great Depression and crisis was miraculously turned around by money printers through money printing, saving countless families and businesses from unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be this magical? Can the means of distribution completely replace production? Can emergency antibiotics replace a normal diet? The money printers were also very clear-headed, knowing that the task ahead might be even more difficult:</p><p>How do I exit? How can we return to normalcy?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible; monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which, in layman's terms, is \"irreversible.\" The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect,\" which means that the processes from poverty to wealth and from wealth to poverty, from frugality to extravagance and from extravagance to frugality, are asymmetrical. Monetary easing and asset bubbles, from central banks to the market, will generate huge and irreversible path dependencies. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically speaking, releasing too much water...<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces monetary equilibrium with real equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Money is unpredictable and will randomly deviate from its real value. Some scholars have compared money to the quantum, the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the more important consequence of M-CAPM is that it pushes everything into the channels of behavioral finance, psychological finance, and narrative economics. Quantum measurement is inaccurate; it cannot obtain both position and velocity simultaneously. Schrödinger's cat, life and death, rise and fall, depend on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knew that the former dared not stop, while the former knew that the latter knew, and the latter knew that the former knew that the latter knew... Such overlapping beliefs are indeed tender and poignant. Sometimes it seems complex and fragile, and sometimes it seems incredibly rigid. Therefore, at this time, do not use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are wake-up calls in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>There will only be more huge fluctuations.</b>。 The so-called self-fulfillment of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has taken shape.</p><p>And the turning point will only ever come at the climax of the party. And at that moment, no one was awake, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Image source: Baidu)</span></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog\">西泽研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de21f83c1ccf91eaf03e7bb8a50c812","relate_stocks":{"QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116256529","content_text":"如果说恶性通胀是一种危机，那么危机已经发生。疯狂的资产泡沫本质上就是金融市场上的“恶性通胀”。有的股票，过去10元能买到1股，现在只能买到0.01股。\n从这个角度看金融市场，对泡沫的持久度可能产生不一样的看法。最近市场上喊空的，提出警告的越来越多，但泡沫依旧很坚韧，市场就是这么魔性。要记住一点，解铃还须系铃人。既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定。\n\n对美国来说，这一次加杠杆的主体，几乎完全是政府，这就意味着催生泡沫的主体是基础货币——这特别符合历史上恶性通胀的货币条件，即美联储直接印钞而非商业银行产生信贷。当然，美国当前的广义货币M2也创历史新高。\n\n为什么政府直接印钞是恶性通胀的典型特征，这是因为与商业银行根据实体经济风控标准放贷创造货币相比，政府直接印钞往往只是一种分配行为而非生产行为，不会直接与实体经济的价值创造关联。因此，与其说是魔性的市场让价值投资失败（2020大牛市背景下，巴菲特的公司利润下降48%），不如说是印钞者们摧毁了价值投资体系。\n因此与其说是疯狂的资产泡沫，不如说是资产市场上的“恶性通胀”。已经有越来越多的机构投资者将美国2020年的印钞行为比做上世纪初的魏玛共和国，这个念头导致比特币被疯抢，换个角度看其实就是美元在数字货币市场上疯狂的贬值。\n\n除了比特币和股市外，恶性通胀或者说法定纸币的崩溃已经蔓延到了大宗商品市场，钢、铜、PVC、纸等各种原材料都在暴涨。这是一个很不好的兆头，这意味着纸币恶性通胀很快就蔓延到商品市场，形成真正的对社会大众产生重大影响的宏观事件。\n一切不过是时间问题——货币到通胀之间的传导时滞。\n\n然而印钞者们似乎还不觉醒——除了中国的监管者。中国监管层的态度非常明确，在泡沫崩溃以前，提前做好对冲危机的准备。银保监会主席郭树清的讲话振聋发聩：\n泡沫随时都可能破灭。\n中国的央行也一直保持清醒，似乎想把火灾防患于未然。而美联储则一直在“酒醉的探戈里”不愿醒来。就连国债收益率飙升这样的退场信号，他们都选择性忽视，只能说“你永远无法叫醒一个装睡的人”。\n\n10年期美债收益率上周曾跃升至1.614%，本周二下跌2.6个基点报1.396%\n或许美联储已经没了选择，只能一条道走到黑。“世界美元”的印钞者永远都是这么任性。或许印着印着人类就进入按需分配的理想大同社会。我们都知道一切都是泡沫，但泡沫有什么不好？佛曰：诸般妄相，如梦幻泡影。谁能放下印钞机，立地成佛？\n中国监管层之所以有定力，还是因为率先控制住了疫情，并有幸成为疫情供给受限时期全球唯一的大型生产者。这体现在强劲的代表外循环的净出口上。既然外循环可以支持整个循环体系，代表内循环的房地产泡沫就可以认真整治一下。更重要的一点是，在美联储无底线印钞导致全球货币大洪水的危险局势下，如何修筑防洪大堤来防止国际热钱游资割韭菜薅羊毛。\n此时不要谈自由市场，不要说尊重资本的商业本性，因为当央行如此疯狂介入市场，市场就已经失灵——资源配置的价格信号紊乱，辛辛苦苦干实业不如炒房炒茅台炒比特币。\n\n比特币巨鲸灰度基金，截止今年2月持有的比特币市值超过200亿美元，且还在持续加仓\n所以此时国家金融能力尤为重要。它是指国家前瞻性的系统性风险防控能力，国家动用一国金融力量配置资源打好防风险攻坚战的能力。类似1997年大陆与香港配合的港币保卫战。\n因为疫情不止，放水不息，洪水隐患依然很大，国际游资如嗜血的怪兽，四处寻找猎物以满足收益率预期的胃口。美国财政部账上还趴着1.5万亿美元现金，接下来还有刚通过的1.9万亿美元刺激和救助计划。赤字率已经创了世界纪录，MMT不过是一层遮羞的布，一旦打开就不用再在乎什么了。\n何况，在大疫情那个危机时刻，这一切都是正义的、必须的、不可不做的。客观的说，我们必须肯定这次疫情大危机中，各国印钞者的“救世主”般的能力——本来一场世界级的大萧条、大危机，却被印钞者们奇迹般的通过印钞力挽狂澜，多少家庭和企业免于失业和破产。\n\n然而真的一直会这么神奇吗？用分配手段就能完全替代生产？救急用的抗生素可以替代正常的饮食？印钞者们其实也都很清醒，他们知道接下来的任务可能更严峻：\n如何退出？如何回归正常化？\n然而并不是所有的东西是可逆的，货币宽松是动态非对称的，通俗的说就是“覆水难收”。微观行为的基础是“棘轮效应”，即从贫到富与从富到贫，由俭入奢和由奢入俭，这两个过程是不对称的。货币宽松，资产泡沫，从央行到市场，都是会产生巨大的不可逆的路径依赖。用通俗的话来说就是：上瘾。\n从理论上来看，放水放多了，均衡定价由货币均衡取代实体均衡，即所有的资产定价模型CAPM，都应该是M—CAPM。这也是导致价值投资失败的原因。\n货币是琢磨不定的，是会随机偏离实体价值的。已经有学者将货币比做量子，资产—负债的波粒二重性。但我认为M—CAPM产生的后果，更重要的是将一切推入行为金融学、心理金融学和叙事经济学的频道。量子测不准状态，无法同时得到位置和速度。薛定谔的猫，生和死、涨和跌，取决于观测者。\n同时，央行和市场之间处于一种量子纠缠的暧昧状态。后者知道前者不敢收手，而前者知道后者知道，后者又知道前者知道后者知道......如此叠加的信念，的确是缠绵悱恻。有时看上去复杂脆弱，有时又看上去刚性无比。因此此时，不要用线性的“经典物理学”的思维去预测市场。只要市场上还有振聋发聩的声音，泡沫就会继续存在下去，只是会多一些巨幅的波动。所谓预期的自我实现，只会在拐点已过趋势已经形成的时候。\n而拐点永远只会在狂欢最高潮的时候到来。而那一刻，没有清醒者，包括你和我。\n（文章图源：百度）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364810555,"gmtCreate":1614832340077,"gmtModify":1704775787338,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364810555","repostId":"1176697342","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176697342","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614813665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176697342?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 07:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Autohome-S begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176697342","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价","content":"<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally. The IPO will run from March 4 to March 9, 2021, with the expected pricing date being March 9. The public offering price will not exceed HK$251.8 per Hong Kong Offer Share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and Credit Suisse as the Joint Sponsors, the Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 15 March 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot contains 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading online service platform for automotive consumers in China. According to data from Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automotive service platforms in terms of daily active users on mobile devices as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent, and interactive content and tools for automotive consumers and offers a full range of services to automakers and dealers across the automotive value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media service and lead revenue, the company held a 29.9% market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company began as a content-driven vertical media company focused on media services (“1.0 Media”). In 2016, the company launched the \"4+1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 platform\"), creating a platform that encompasses \"car content\", \"car transactions\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-oriented vertical company to a data and technology-driven automotive platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using manual labor.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>(“AI”), big data and cloud technologies (collectively referred to as “ABC”) develop a full suite of intelligent products and solutions, building an integrated ecosystem that connects all players in the automotive industry (“3.0 Intelligence”) by providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain. Looking ahead, the company plans to continue to leverage its Software as a Service (“SaaS”) capabilities along with its core AI, big data, and cloud technologies (“4.0ABC+SaaS”) for both horizontal and vertical expansion.</p><p>The company's operating results were strong during the track record period. The company's net revenue increased by 16.4% from RMB7,233.2 million in 2018 to RMB8,420.8 million in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB8,658.6 million in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK$251.8 per Offer Share under the Hong Kong Public Offering and the International Offering, the Company estimates that the net proceeds from the Company's Global Offering will be approximately HK$4,943.8 million, assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised, and HK$6,068.9 million if the Over-allotment Option is exercised in full. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK$251.8 per Offer Share under the International Offering, the Selling Shareholders expect to receive proceeds of approximately HK$2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of the investment company:</b>The company will continue to develop its technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies, in order to enhance user engagement, profitability and operational efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">massive data</a>The company will also continue to strengthen its data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>New business incubation:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that by deeply developing products and services across the industry value chain, it will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>To enhance the company's domestic and international standing and develop the automotive ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the UK and Germany, launched an overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand its business into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not yet entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements, similar to its investment in Tiantianpai (Tiantianpaiche), the company will continue to selectively seek acquisition or investment opportunities in business, technology or strategic alliances to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General Business Use:</b>The company will use the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Autohome-S begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAutohome-S begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-04 07:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally. The IPO will run from March 4 to March 9, 2021, with the expected pricing date being March 9. The public offering price will not exceed HK$251.8 per Hong Kong Offer Share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$25,433.74.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and Credit Suisse as the Joint Sponsors, the Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 15 March 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot contains 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading online service platform for automotive consumers in China. According to data from Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automotive service platforms in terms of daily active users on mobile devices as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent, and interactive content and tools for automotive consumers and offers a full range of services to automakers and dealers across the automotive value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media service and lead revenue, the company held a 29.9% market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company began as a content-driven vertical media company focused on media services (“1.0 Media”). In 2016, the company launched the \"4+1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 platform\"), creating a platform that encompasses \"car content\", \"car transactions\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-oriented vertical company to a data and technology-driven automotive platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using manual labor.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>(“AI”), big data and cloud technologies (collectively referred to as “ABC”) develop a full suite of intelligent products and solutions, building an integrated ecosystem that connects all players in the automotive industry (“3.0 Intelligence”) by providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain. Looking ahead, the company plans to continue to leverage its Software as a Service (“SaaS”) capabilities along with its core AI, big data, and cloud technologies (“4.0ABC+SaaS”) for both horizontal and vertical expansion.</p><p>The company's operating results were strong during the track record period. The company's net revenue increased by 16.4% from RMB7,233.2 million in 2018 to RMB8,420.8 million in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB8,658.6 million in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK$251.8 per Offer Share under the Hong Kong Public Offering and the International Offering, the Company estimates that the net proceeds from the Company's Global Offering will be approximately HK$4,943.8 million, assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised, and HK$6,068.9 million if the Over-allotment Option is exercised in full. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK$251.8 per Offer Share under the International Offering, the Selling Shareholders expect to receive proceeds of approximately HK$2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of the investment company:</b>The company will continue to develop its technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies, in order to enhance user engagement, profitability and operational efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">massive data</a>The company will also continue to strengthen its data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>New business incubation:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that by deeply developing products and services across the industry value chain, it will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>To enhance the company's domestic and international standing and develop the automotive ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the UK and Germany, launched an overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand its business into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not yet entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements, similar to its investment in Tiantianpai (Tiantianpaiche), the company will continue to selectively seek acquisition or investment opportunities in business, technology or strategic alliances to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General Business Use:</b>The company will use the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) is intended to be used for the above purposes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda9e44b6f0a36bb06bbf3d7875e7368","relate_stocks":{"02518":"汽车之家—S"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176697342","content_text":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价将不超过每股香港发售股份251.8港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约25433.74港元；中金公司、高盛及瑞信为联席保荐人，预期股份将于2021年3月15日于联交所主板挂牌上市。申购阶梯：每手100股，入场费25433.74港元。乙组门槛为20000股，申购所需资金约5086747.77港元。公司是中国领先的汽车消费者在线服务平台，根据贵士移动的资料，按截至2020年12月31日的移动端日活跃用户计，在汽车服务平台中排名第一。公司为汽车消费者提供全面、独立及交互式的内容和工具并为汽车价值链的汽车制造商和经销商提供全套服务。根据艾瑞的资料，公司是最大的在线汽车广告及线索服务供应商，就媒体服务及线索收入而言，于2019年中国在线汽车垂直媒体广告及线索市场中公司占据的市场份额为29.9%。公司于2008年成立，最开始是一家内容型垂直媒体公司，专注于媒体服务(“1.0媒体”)。2016年，公司推出“4+1”战略转型方案(“2.0平台”)，打造了一个囊括“车内容”、“车交易”、“车金融”及“车生活”的平台，从内容型垂直公司转型和升级为数据和技术驱动的汽车平台。自2018年起，公司专注于用人工智能(“AI”)、大数据及云技术(统称“ABC”)开发全套智能产品和解决方案，透过提供跨价值链的端到端数据驱动产品和解决方案，构建一个连接汽车行业所有参与者的集成生态系统(“3.0智能”)。展望未来，公司计划继续利用公司的“软件即服务”(“SaaS”)能力连同公司的核心AI、大数据及云技术(“4.0ABC+SaaS”)同时进行横向和纵向扩张。于业绩纪录期，公司的经营业绩强劲。公司的净收入由2018年的人民币72.332亿元增长16.4%至2019年的人民币84.208亿元，并进一步增长2.8%至2020年的人民币86.586亿元。归属于AutohomeInc.的净利润由2018年的人民币28.71亿元增长11.5%至2019年的人民币32亿元，并进一步增长6.4%至2020年的人民币34.052亿元。根据香港公开发售及国际发售每股发售股份251.8港元的最高公开发售价，假设超额配股权未获行使，公司估计公司的全球发售所得款项净额将约为49.438亿港元，倘超额配股权获悉数行使，则为60.689亿港元。根据国际发售的最高公开发售价每股发售股份251.8港元，销售股东预期收取所得款项约25.424亿港元。投资公司的技术及产品开发：公司将不断发展公司于AI、大数据及云以及AR及VR相关技术的技术领先地位，以增强用户参与度、盈利能力以及经营效率。通过公司已累积的海量数据，公司亦将继续巩固公司的数据能力并提供一流的数据SaaS解决方案，以为汽车行业带来更多价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。孵化新业务：公司将进一步孵化新业务，如汽车互联网及线上汽车售后服务，以发掘公司未来发展的更多增长潜力。公司认为，通过深入开发行业价值链的产品及服务，公司将能够更好地满足用户及客户需求并为广泛的行业参与者提供坚实的价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。提高公司国内外的地位，发展定汽车生态系统：将业务范围扩张至海外市场是公司长期策略的一部分。公司已于英国及德国成立两间附属公司，推出了海外版平台“YesAuto”，并计划进一步将公司的业务扩张至东南亚等新兴市场，如东南亚。国内方面，尽管现时公司并无订立任何收购或投资的承诺或协议，但如公司向天天拍(天天拍车)作出的投资一般，公司将继续选择性地物色商业、技术或战略联盟的收购或投资机会，以形成一个强大的全球汽车生态系统。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。一般企业用途：公司将余下所得款项用于一般企业用途、营运资金、资本开支及其他一般及行政事宜。所得款项净额的10%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02518":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365266380,"gmtCreate":1614747358640,"gmtModify":1704774730180,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"。。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365266380","repostId":"1136108852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136108852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614746900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136108852?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 12:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nikola's fraud was exposed, so why did Jia Yueting and FF still dare to take this path?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136108852","media":"腾讯新闻潜望","summary":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are a unique existence in the capital market. Because they go public first and then merge into physical businesses, realizing the characteristics of the latter's rapid listing, they have become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method. However, in recent years, SPAC-type listed companies, which have been highly sought after by investors in the US stock market, have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have achieved rapid listings on the US capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups with extremely short history. However, thanks to their so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, as well as expectations of high future growth, these companies have often achieved valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, examples of their stock prices doubling and their market capitalization rapidly growing to tens of billions of dollars after listing are not uncommon.</p><p>Electric truck startup Nikola is a prime example. Through a merger with a SPAC, Nikola, which had no revenue and no products, quickly went public. With the pursuit of funds, its market value once exceeded $30 billion, easily surpassing traditional automotive giants such as General Motors and Ford. However, recently, the company was exposed for a series of false information about its business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price plummeted from its high.</p><p>Nikola's successful IPO has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups, allowing them to obtain much-needed funding and achieve a rapid IPO without having actual products or revenue right now. This perfect IPO method is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have struggled for years but are still struggling with business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting in the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, and Lucid announced mergers and acquisitions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information published by these companies, one can see how similar they are to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electric\" technologies, a star-studded lineup of founders and senior executives, an incredibly broad market prospect, exciting performance expectations, and the endorsement of star investment institutions have led to a series of perfect SPAC deals.</p><p>But the window of time is closing on them at an accelerating pace. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has entered a period of adjustment after a rapid surge last year. A series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings, such as Nikola, have also made investors more cautious about this type of company.</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market capitalization once exceeded $30 billion, has finally been proven to be a lie.</p><p>Filings the company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week revealed that former executive chairman Trevor Milton made at least seven “inaccurate” statements between July 2016 and July 2020 regarding the company’s progress in developing electric and hydrogen-powered trucks. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one in an investigative report released by a Research institution called Hindenburg Research last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigative report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton claiming in 2016 that Nikola had built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks had rolled off the production line by 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company was able to produce 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and that the manufacturing cost per kilogram had dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research last September, Milton was busy denying the allegations and quickly resigned. Even so, he remains the company's largest individual shareholder, holding a 20% stake. Last year, Nikola went public quickly through a merger with \"Blank Check,\" and its market capitalization once exceeded $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded $6 billion.</p><p>Even after stepping down as executive chairman, the company continues to pay attorneys and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigations. In 2020, Nikola incurred $24.7 million in related expenses, of which $19.5 million was incurred in the fourth quarter of 2020. In addition, the company has reserved $8.1 million for future legal expenses for Milton. To date, the company has paid $15,000 in legal fees for him personally.</p><p>Nikola, which has had no main business revenue to date, has unsurprisingly had a terrible performance. Its revenue for the whole of 2020 was only $95,000, and this mere $95,000 was just the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola itself stated in its financial report that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The company suffered a full-year loss of $380 million, a fourfold increase from $88.65 million the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss reached $147 million.</p><p><b>From surpassing GM and Ford to counterfeiting scandals</b></p><p>This company, with zero revenue and no products, which has been proven to be full of lies, successfully went public in the middle of last year and was once highly sought after by investors in the market. Its stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value once reached as high as $30 billion, leaving traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning the rotten into the miraculous\" was achieved through the so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) reverse acquisition model. A SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is a shell or \"blank check\" company with no actual business that goes public in advance by selling shares to investors. It hopes to achieve value appreciation and bring returns to investors by acquiring a private company with physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off immediately, successfully going public two months after the merger intention was announced.</p><p>However, a closer look at Nikola's merger plan documents announced last March reveals that the company's business itself contains too much \"virtual\" elements and too little \"real\" elements. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not begin until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, and the sales and leasing revenue from electric vehicles are all expected revenues without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023, but it expects to achieve $3.2 billion in revenue by 2024, and its EBITDA margin will remain stable at over 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: The original shareholder still holds absolute control)</i></p><p>According to transaction information disclosed by Nikola at the time, VectoIQ provided $230 million raised during its previous IPO, representing a 5.7% stake. Nikola's existing shareholders held 79.6% of the shares, and based on $10 per share, the combined valuation at the time was approximately $4 billion.</p><p>As soon as the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to soar. After the merger was completed, the stock price once rose to more than $65 per share, with a market capitalization of more than $30 billion, bringing substantial returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continued to surface, the stock price began to decline, especially after the short-selling report was released, which led to a further drop. Currently, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price fell from its high, moving from a market leader to a market laggard)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market clearly reflects the trend of the company being abandoned after being popular with investors. Taking an investment of $100 as an example, if you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the appreciation will be less than $200. However, if you continue to hold Nikola afterward, it will significantly underperform the market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's IPO is just one example of a wave of rapid reverse listings through SPACs that began in 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have gone public on the US stock market. So far this year, SPACs have raised a total of $38.3 billion, far exceeding the $19.8 billion raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to summarize from some past cases of successful IPOs through SPACs, including Nikola, that startups acquired by SPACs and successfully achieving rapid IPOs usually share the following common characteristics: First, the companies are short-lived, usually only 3 to 5 years old; second, their revenue is extremely low or even non-existent. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its IPO until its market capitalization reached $30 billion, excluding solar panel installation fee revenue from its non-core business.</p><p>According to statistics, the median revenue of startups that went public through SPACs in 2020 was $48 million. According to data from The Wall Street Journal, companies with zero-revenue IPOs valued at over $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and even more have already announced and are yet to be completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Meanwhile, in contrast to low or even zero revenue, there are high valuations of companies after SPAC mergers. After complex transactions with SPACs, the startups acquired by SPACs receive extremely high valuations, often reaching billions or even tens of billions of dollars, thanks to their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced its acquisition with VectorIQ had already reached $4 billion, and its market capitalization soared to an astonishing $30 billion after its listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens door for electric vehicle startups</b></p><p>SPACs seem to have become a fast track to quickly beautify and package these startups, attracting countless startups. Nikola's successful IPO also alerted other electric vehicle startups to this opportunity. In particular, some companies that had been struggling with financial difficulties for many years had a sudden enlightenment and began to study this special approach.</p><p>Some are fast and some are slow. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through a SPAC in 2020, was founded less than three years ago. Its founders, Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause, briefly served as executives at FF, the electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting.</p><p>Of course, this also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup that now seems to have finally found a way forward. The company announced in late January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valuing it at $3.4 billion, and plans to complete its IPO in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is also another electric vehicle startup, Lucid, where Jia Yueting was once the largest shareholder. After more than a decade of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of $24 billion, setting a record for the highest combined valuation of SPACs.</p><p>However, looking at the transaction information published by these electric vehicle startups that have already announced SPAC deals, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry-leading in technology, the company's founders and management team are impressive, they are extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and their market position, their revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars within a few years after the product is launched, their profits are negative for the first year or two, and then they quickly turn positive and achieve stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the aforementioned common characteristics, another major commonality among these companies is that none of their products have actually been launched yet; they are still in the research and development and trial production stages. This means that revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through a SPAC.</p><p>However, these things do not seem important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have already made real profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether the company will really commit fraud or whether it will really launch products in the future is not a concern for these investors. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle startups. Therefore, the most important thing is to get more related investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole faced the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leading company Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud scandal caused its stock price to plummet from its high level, which has already alerted many investors in the market to danger and made them wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of Churchill Capital Corp IV, a SPAC that has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its IPO at the end of last year, and is now at $14 per share, down 36% from the high of $22 per share reached after the SPAC deal was announced last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower revenue typically have poor stock price performance. A study by Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, found that publicly traded companies with annual revenue of less than $50 million underperformed the market by 28% in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to obtain high short-term returns from SPACs, the authenticity of the company's business and whether it can deliver on its promises of future performance may not be important.</p>","source":"lsy1587347572404","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nikola's fraud was exposed, so why did Jia Yueting and FF still dare to take this path?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNikola's fraud was exposed, so why did Jia Yueting and FF still dare to take this path?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻潜望</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are a unique existence in the capital market. Because they go public first and then merge into physical businesses, realizing the characteristics of the latter's rapid listing, they have become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method. However, in recent years, SPAC-type listed companies, which have been highly sought after by investors in the US stock market, have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have achieved rapid listings on the US capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups with extremely short history. However, thanks to their so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, as well as expectations of high future growth, these companies have often achieved valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, examples of their stock prices doubling and their market capitalization rapidly growing to tens of billions of dollars after listing are not uncommon.</p><p>Electric truck startup Nikola is a prime example. Through a merger with a SPAC, Nikola, which had no revenue and no products, quickly went public. With the pursuit of funds, its market value once exceeded $30 billion, easily surpassing traditional automotive giants such as General Motors and Ford. However, recently, the company was exposed for a series of false information about its business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price plummeted from its high.</p><p>Nikola's successful IPO has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups, allowing them to obtain much-needed funding and achieve a rapid IPO without having actual products or revenue right now. This perfect IPO method is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have struggled for years but are still struggling with business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting in the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, and Lucid announced mergers and acquisitions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information published by these companies, one can see how similar they are to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electric\" technologies, a star-studded lineup of founders and senior executives, an incredibly broad market prospect, exciting performance expectations, and the endorsement of star investment institutions have led to a series of perfect SPAC deals.</p><p>But the window of time is closing on them at an accelerating pace. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has entered a period of adjustment after a rapid surge last year. A series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings, such as Nikola, have also made investors more cautious about this type of company.</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market capitalization once exceeded $30 billion, has finally been proven to be a lie.</p><p>Filings the company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week revealed that former executive chairman Trevor Milton made at least seven “inaccurate” statements between July 2016 and July 2020 regarding the company’s progress in developing electric and hydrogen-powered trucks. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one in an investigative report released by a Research institution called Hindenburg Research last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigative report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton claiming in 2016 that Nikola had built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks had rolled off the production line by 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company was able to produce 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and that the manufacturing cost per kilogram had dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research last September, Milton was busy denying the allegations and quickly resigned. Even so, he remains the company's largest individual shareholder, holding a 20% stake. Last year, Nikola went public quickly through a merger with \"Blank Check,\" and its market capitalization once exceeded $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded $6 billion.</p><p>Even after stepping down as executive chairman, the company continues to pay attorneys and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigations. In 2020, Nikola incurred $24.7 million in related expenses, of which $19.5 million was incurred in the fourth quarter of 2020. In addition, the company has reserved $8.1 million for future legal expenses for Milton. To date, the company has paid $15,000 in legal fees for him personally.</p><p>Nikola, which has had no main business revenue to date, has unsurprisingly had a terrible performance. Its revenue for the whole of 2020 was only $95,000, and this mere $95,000 was just the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola itself stated in its financial report that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The company suffered a full-year loss of $380 million, a fourfold increase from $88.65 million the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss reached $147 million.</p><p><b>From surpassing GM and Ford to counterfeiting scandals</b></p><p>This company, with zero revenue and no products, which has been proven to be full of lies, successfully went public in the middle of last year and was once highly sought after by investors in the market. Its stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value once reached as high as $30 billion, leaving traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning the rotten into the miraculous\" was achieved through the so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) reverse acquisition model. A SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is a shell or \"blank check\" company with no actual business that goes public in advance by selling shares to investors. It hopes to achieve value appreciation and bring returns to investors by acquiring a private company with physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off immediately, successfully going public two months after the merger intention was announced.</p><p>However, a closer look at Nikola's merger plan documents announced last March reveals that the company's business itself contains too much \"virtual\" elements and too little \"real\" elements. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not begin until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, and the sales and leasing revenue from electric vehicles are all expected revenues without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023, but it expects to achieve $3.2 billion in revenue by 2024, and its EBITDA margin will remain stable at over 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: The original shareholder still holds absolute control)</i></p><p>According to transaction information disclosed by Nikola at the time, VectoIQ provided $230 million raised during its previous IPO, representing a 5.7% stake. Nikola's existing shareholders held 79.6% of the shares, and based on $10 per share, the combined valuation at the time was approximately $4 billion.</p><p>As soon as the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to soar. After the merger was completed, the stock price once rose to more than $65 per share, with a market capitalization of more than $30 billion, bringing substantial returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continued to surface, the stock price began to decline, especially after the short-selling report was released, which led to a further drop. Currently, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price fell from its high, moving from a market leader to a market laggard)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market clearly reflects the trend of the company being abandoned after being popular with investors. Taking an investment of $100 as an example, if you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the appreciation will be less than $200. However, if you continue to hold Nikola afterward, it will significantly underperform the market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's IPO is just one example of a wave of rapid reverse listings through SPACs that began in 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have gone public on the US stock market. So far this year, SPACs have raised a total of $38.3 billion, far exceeding the $19.8 billion raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to summarize from some past cases of successful IPOs through SPACs, including Nikola, that startups acquired by SPACs and successfully achieving rapid IPOs usually share the following common characteristics: First, the companies are short-lived, usually only 3 to 5 years old; second, their revenue is extremely low or even non-existent. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its IPO until its market capitalization reached $30 billion, excluding solar panel installation fee revenue from its non-core business.</p><p>According to statistics, the median revenue of startups that went public through SPACs in 2020 was $48 million. According to data from The Wall Street Journal, companies with zero-revenue IPOs valued at over $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and even more have already announced and are yet to be completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Meanwhile, in contrast to low or even zero revenue, there are high valuations of companies after SPAC mergers. After complex transactions with SPACs, the startups acquired by SPACs receive extremely high valuations, often reaching billions or even tens of billions of dollars, thanks to their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced its acquisition with VectorIQ had already reached $4 billion, and its market capitalization soared to an astonishing $30 billion after its listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens door for electric vehicle startups</b></p><p>SPACs seem to have become a fast track to quickly beautify and package these startups, attracting countless startups. Nikola's successful IPO also alerted other electric vehicle startups to this opportunity. In particular, some companies that had been struggling with financial difficulties for many years had a sudden enlightenment and began to study this special approach.</p><p>Some are fast and some are slow. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through a SPAC in 2020, was founded less than three years ago. Its founders, Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause, briefly served as executives at FF, the electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting.</p><p>Of course, this also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup that now seems to have finally found a way forward. The company announced in late January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valuing it at $3.4 billion, and plans to complete its IPO in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is also another electric vehicle startup, Lucid, where Jia Yueting was once the largest shareholder. After more than a decade of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of $24 billion, setting a record for the highest combined valuation of SPACs.</p><p>However, looking at the transaction information published by these electric vehicle startups that have already announced SPAC deals, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry-leading in technology, the company's founders and management team are impressive, they are extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and their market position, their revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars within a few years after the product is launched, their profits are negative for the first year or two, and then they quickly turn positive and achieve stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the aforementioned common characteristics, another major commonality among these companies is that none of their products have actually been launched yet; they are still in the research and development and trial production stages. This means that revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through a SPAC.</p><p>However, these things do not seem important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have already made real profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether the company will really commit fraud or whether it will really launch products in the future is not a concern for these investors. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle startups. Therefore, the most important thing is to get more related investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole faced the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leading company Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud scandal caused its stock price to plummet from its high level, which has already alerted many investors in the market to danger and made them wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of Churchill Capital Corp IV, a SPAC that has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its IPO at the end of last year, and is now at $14 per share, down 36% from the high of $22 per share reached after the SPAC deal was announced last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower revenue typically have poor stock price performance. A study by Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, found that publicly traded companies with annual revenue of less than $50 million underperformed the market by 28% in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to obtain high short-term returns from SPACs, the authenticity of the company's business and whether it can deliver on its promises of future performance may not be important.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html\">腾讯新闻潜望</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136108852","content_text":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年来美股市场中投资者所热捧的SPAC类上市公司，却逐渐走向另一个极端。据数据统计，近年来通过SPAC实现快速在美国资本市场上市的公司，大多数是低收入甚至无收入，且成立时间极短的初创公司，但凭借着所谓行业领先的颠覆性技术和商业模式，以及对未来业绩高成长性的预期，这些公司都获得了动辄数亿甚至数十亿美元的估值，交易一旦完成，上市后股价翻倍市值迅速增长至百亿美元的例子也屡见不鲜电动卡车初创公司Nikola就是这其中的一个典型例子，通过与一家SPAC合并，无收入无产品的Nikola迅速实现了上市，并在资金的追捧下市值一度超过300亿美元，轻松超越通用、福特等传统汽车行业巨头，但近来这家公司被爆出一系列关于业务和产品陈述的虚假信息，创始人被迫下台，公司股价也从高位滑落。Nikola的上市成功为其他电动车初创公司打开了一扇新的大门，既能获得急需的资金支持、又能实现快速上市，且不需要现在就有实际的产品和收入，这样完美的上市方式，正是许多摸爬滚打多年仍处在业务困境中的电动车初创公司梦寐以求的。从2020年下半年开始，包括Canoo、FF、Lucid等电动车初创公司纷纷先后宣布与SPAC的合并交易，企图复制Nikola的成功。翻看这些公司对外公布的交易信息，又与Nikola何其的相似：行业领先的“三电”技术、阵容豪华的创始人和高管团队、无比广阔的市场前景、令人振奋的业绩预期，再辅以明星投资机构的背书，一桩桩完美SPAC交易就这么新鲜出炉了。但时间窗口正在对他们加速关闭。今年以来，整个电动车行业的估值在经历了去年一年的狂飙突进后，开始进入调整期，而Nikola等一系列与SPAC上市相关的造假丑闻，也让投资者开始更加谨慎对待这一类公司。Nikola的谎言被戳穿：创始人出走市值曾一度超过300亿美元的电动卡车初创公司Nikola终被证实是一场谎言。上周这家公司提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件披露，该公司前执行董事长Trevor Milton在2016年7月至2020年7月之间，关于公司在电动和氢能源动力卡车的研发进展方面，至少做了7次“不准确”的陈述。除此以外，公司自身也做了两次不准确的陈述。事实上，这些陈述早在去年9月就被一家名为Hindenburg Research的研究机构所发布的一份调查报告所一一指出，这份提交给证交会的自查文件，正是基于回应这份调查报告的回应。这些虚假陈述，包括在2016年Milton称Nikola已经造出了一台零排放卡车，2020年已经有5辆卡车下线，他还在2019年末和2020年年中两次强调该公司已经能够制造1000公斤的氢气并且每公斤的制造成本已经下降到3美元以下。在去年9月被Hindenburg Research提出质疑后，Milton一边忙着否认，一边火速卸任，即便如此，他仍然是这家公司最大的个人股东，持股比例高达20%，去年Nikola通过与“空白支票”公司合并快速上市，市值一度超过300亿美元，照此计算，Milton的个人财富也一度超过60亿美元。即便已经卸任执行董事长一职，但与Nikola和他个人调查相关的律师和法务费用依然由公司所支付，在2020年，Nikola公司与之相关的费用达到2470万美元，其中1950万美元产生与2020年第四季度，此外，公司还留存了810万美元的用于未来为Milton支付的法律相关费用，至今为止，公司已经为他个人支付了1.5万美元律师诉讼费用。至今为止没有任何主营业务收入的Nikola的业绩也是不出意料的一塌糊涂，2020年全年的收入仅为9.5万美元，且这区区9.5万美元也只是所谓太阳能板安装费，Nikola公司自己在财报中也表示，太阳能板安装并非公司主要业务。全年亏损高达3.8亿美元，比前一年的8865万美元扩大了4倍。仅2020年第四季度，亏损额便高达1.47亿美元。从超越通用、福特到造假丑闻就是这样一家零收入，无产品，已经被证实为谎话连篇的公司，却已经在去年年中顺利上市了，而且一度受到市场中投资者热捧，上市首日股价便翻倍，市值一度高达300亿美元，将传统车厂福特、通用等都远远甩在身后。实现这一“化腐朽为神奇”壮举的是通过所谓SPAC反向收购的模式，所谓SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）是一种通过向投资者出售份额，提前上市的无任何实际业务的空壳或“空白支票”公司，期望未来通过并购一家有实体业务的私营公司，实现价值增值，为投资者带来回报。Nikola正是找到了一家名为VectoIQ的SPAC，双方一拍即合，在合并意向宣布两个月后便成功实现上市。但仔细翻看Nikola在去年3月份公布的合并计划文件便不难发现，这家公司业务本身“虚”的东西太多，“实”的东西太少，例如其所公布的研发中心建设计划，要到2020年第二季度和第四季度才开始，包括电动车的销售、租赁收入也全部是没有太多依据的预期收入，该公司计划从2021年开始在北美生产电池电动车，2023年开始生产燃料电池电动车，但预计2024年就能够实现32亿美元的收入，且息税摊销折旧前利润率将稳定在25%以上。（Nikola披露的交易信息：原股东仍绝对控股）根据Nikola当时所披露的交易信息显示，VectoIQ提供了此前上市时所募集的2.3亿美元，占股份比例为5.7%，Nikola现有股东占股份比例为79.6%，按照每股10美元计算，当时合并估值约为40亿美元。在合并消息一经宣布后，VectoIQ的股价便开始扶摇直上，在合并交易完成后，股价更是一度涨至每股超过65美元，市值超过300亿美元，为Nikola的早期投资者带来丰厚的回报。但随着关于Nikola的负面消息不断浮出水面，股价也开始一路走低，尤其是在做空报告发布后，股价更是进一步下滑，目前Nikola股价在每股18美元附近。（Nikola股价高位回落 从领先市场到落后市场）将Nikola的股价表现与市场相比，也能够明显反映出这家公司被投资者热捧后又遭抛弃的趋势，以投资100美元为例，如果投资于Nikola，到2020年6月回报高达700美元，如果投资于纳斯达克综合指数或纳斯达克绿色能源板块，仅增值不到200美元，但随后继续持有Nikola将会明显跑输大盘和相关板块。SPAC标的共同特征：无收入、短历史Nikola的上市仅仅是从2019年起一轮通过SPAC实现快速反向上市热潮的其中一例。自2019年以来，美股市场已经有131家SPAC实现上市。今年以来，SPAC募集资金总额已达383亿美元，远超同期通过传统IPO上市融资的198亿美元。从包括Nikola在内的过往的一些通过SPAC成功上市的案例不难总结出，被SPAC并购并顺利实现快速上市的初创公司通常具备以下共同特征，首先是公司成立时间短，通常是仅3至5年的创办历史，其次是收入极低甚至没有收入，例如Nikola剔除非主营业务的太阳能板安装费收入外，其上市前直到市值冲上300亿美元，都没有产生过任何主营收入。据一份统计数据显示，通过SPAC完成上市的初创公司2020年营业收入中位数为4800万美元。据《华尔街日报》数据统计，零收入上市估值超过10亿美元的公司，通过SPAC完成的已经超过传统IPO的数量，并且已经宣布并且尚未完成中的数量更多。同时，与低收入甚至零收入相对的，却是SPAC合并后公司的高估值。经过与SPAC的复杂交易操作后，被SPAC并购的初创公司凭借着其所谓的颠覆性技术或商业模式，对未来业绩的高成长性预期，获得极高估值，动辄数十亿美元甚至上百亿美元并不是不可能完成的任务，以Nikola为例，宣布与VectorIQ并购时的交易估值便已经达到40亿美元，上市后市值更是一路飙升至令人咋舌300亿美元以上。SPAC交易为电动车初创公司打开一扇大门SPAC仿佛成了将这些初创公司迅速美化包装的快速通道，让无数初创公司趋之若鹜。Nikola的上市成功，也令同在电动车初创领域的其他电动车公司嗅到了这一机会，尤其是对于多年来受困于资金窘境的部分公司，一夜之间醍醐灌顶，纷纷开始研究起这一特殊方式来。这其中有动作快的也有慢的，例如在2020年就通过SPAC成功实现上市的Canoo，当时成立时间不到3年，其创始人Ulrich Kranz和Stefan Krause曾短暂担任贾跃亭创办的电动车初创公司FF的高管。当然还包括FF，这家命途多舛的电动车初创公司，如今仿佛终于找到了继续前进的方向。这家公司1月底宣布已经和一家SPAC达成合并协议，估值34亿美元，计划在今年第二季度完成上市。还有另一家电动车初创公司Lucid，贾跃亭曾经是这家公司的最大股东，在经过十多年的艰难发展后，Lucid也计划通过SPAC上市，估值达到240亿美元，创下SPAC合并估值最高纪录。但翻看这些已经宣布SPAC交易的电动车初创公司公布的交易信息，你能看到一些关键信息何其相似：几乎每一家公司都宣称自己的技术业界领先，公司的创始人和管理层团队阵容豪华，对于未来市场前景和自己所处的市场地位无比乐观，产品上市后几年内收入就能够达到上亿甚至数十亿美元，盈利在最初一两年为负，随后迅速转正并实现盈利稳定增长。除了上述共同特征以外，这些公司的另一大共同点在于公司还没有任何一款产品真正上市，还处于研发和试产阶段，也就是说收入即便在通过SPAC上市后很长一段时间都将是零。但这些在当下的资本市场眼中似乎并不重要，有投资者已经从Nikola股价快速翻倍中赚到了实实在在的收益，未来这家公司是否真的造假，是否真的会推出产品，并不是这些投资者所关心的问题，同样的逻辑应该也可以应用到其他电动车初创公司身上，所以尽快让市场中多一些相关的投资标的才是最紧要的事。时间窗口正在加速关闭，进入2021年后，电动车行业整体面临着估值重新调整的挑战，领头羊特斯拉股价1月之间跌去20%，引起其他已上市电动车公司股价的集体大幅下跌。Nikola造假事件的曝光让其股价从高位跌落，已经让市场中的许多投资者嗅到了危险的气息，开始对SPAC类电动车开始警惕。已经宣布与Lucid进行合并的SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV股价在过去10个交易日中跌去了50%。Canoo在去年底完成上市交易的当天股价便跌去3%，如今每股14美元，距离去年SPAC交易宣布后创下的每股22美元的最高价位已经下跌36%。根据过往的数据统计，收入较低的上市公司通常股价表现不佳。佛罗里达大学金融学教授Jay Ritter的一项研究发现，年收入低于5000万美元的上市公司，股价表现在上市后前三年比市场低28%。当然对于许多愿意承受额外风险，热衷于博取SPAC类公司短期高收益的投资者来说，公司业务的真实性与否和能否兑现未来业绩的承诺，可能并不重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSAC":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}