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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2023-02-10
  $AMC院线(AMC)$ How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-08-31
  $Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$??
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-07-18
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$?
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-07-12
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$???
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-07-10
  $Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$?
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-07-01
  $Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$????
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-06-28
  $Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$????????
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-06-07
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-06-06
  ??‍♂️
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- InkLeongInkLeong
  ·2021-06-06
  ??‍♂️
  410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?
  近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司
  410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?
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14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141004294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司","content":"<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-06 14:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a520115dfc7edeb93cc3cdf6a15df14","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141004294","content_text":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司股价放量大涨超过6％，市值首次破万亿，成为以科技制造业属性跻身A股“万亿”市值俱乐部的新巨头。不过，就在市场为宁德时代“拍手庆贺”的空档，有人却看到了“泡沫”。同一天，摩根士丹利将宁德时代评级下调至“低配”，目标价仅为251元，相当于给目前400多元的股价直接打了六折。无独有偶，早在2020年11月，大摩就曾将宁德时代的股票评级从超配下调至平配，当时给出的理由是，新能源电池的中期前景已基本反应在股价中，而且全球的汽车厂能否推出受市场欢迎的新车型情况可能要到明年才能被验证。究竟是高了还是低了？站上“山顶”的宁德时代还能不能追？对于投资者来说，至少有三重隐患是需要关注的。/ 01 /盈利能力处在下行通道作为动力电池行业的龙头，受益于行业景气度高，市场给予头部公司较高的估值溢价，宁德时代自上市以来便享受到了被机构“团宠”的待遇，簇拥其股价不断上扬。拉长日线可见，从2018年6月11日登陆创业板开始，截止2021年6月4日，公司股价整体呈快速上升趋势。相较上市之初25.14元/股的发行价，宁德时代近三年的股价涨幅达到1592%。但在股价节节走高的背后，宁德时代的盈利能力却在持续下滑。2020年，公司销售动力电池系统44.45GWh，同比增长10.43%，带来收入394.26亿元，同比增长2.18%。收入增速不及销量增速，说明产品价格在下降。另一边，囿于2020年下半年以来大宗商品涨价，宁德时代主要生产原材料中碳酸锂及钴涨幅都超过20%，成本控制压力加大。收入微涨，成本大增，对利润造成一定挤压，2020年宁德时代的毛利率为27.76%，同比2019年的29.06%减少1.3个百分点。节点财经查阅财报发现，这并不是宁德时代毛利率初次下滑。事实上，自上市后，宁德时代的毛利率便一直停留在下行通道。数据来源：宁德时代财报、东方财富choice如上图所示，2016年至2020年，公司毛利率从43.7%下降至27.76%，五年少赚15.94个百分点。对比上市前的状态，2014年至2016年，公司毛利率从25.73%提升到43.7%，其盈利能力在上市前后分化明显。对此，宁德时代也在财报中表示，若未来市场竞争加剧或行业政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。2021年一季度，公司毛利率为27.28%，较上年同期增加2.19个百分点，尚未恢复到疫情发生前2019年一季度毛利率水平，环比则减少1.08个百分点。于此同时，公司对股东的回报能力趋弱，其加权净资产收益率（ROE）从2016年的69.55%下降至2020年11.27%。不过，这似乎都没有影响到资本市场对宁德时代的追捧，估值如脱缰的野马一路飞奔。/ 02 /估值“策马狂奔”按照今年一季度净利润19.54亿元计算，宁德时代对应的滚动市盈率为149倍，处于历史最高值；按照2020年净利润55.83亿元计算，宁德时代对应的静态市盈率为179倍，同样处于历史最高值。即使按照券商给出的一致业绩预测，公司2023年净利润预计为200亿，对应51倍市盈率，这仍是一个处在5年估值中枢区间内的数值。结合业绩，2016年-2020年，五年时间，宁德时代净利润从28.52亿元到55.83亿元，涨了不到1 倍，市盈率从上市之初约23倍到179倍，涨了接近7倍，显然估值跑的更快，或者说有提前消耗估值的可能。2020年，公司净利润同比增速不过22.43%，但搭上特斯拉的“顺风车”，叠加新能源产业中长期规划发布，碳中和概念等，其年内股价从100多元狂飙到350多元，涨幅超过200%。对比同行，宁德时代的估值更是不便宜。就拿老对手比亚迪来说，2020年净利润42.34亿元，市值约5300亿元，静态市盈率125倍，显著低于宁德时代；再看看松下，2020年净利润折合人民币约102.7亿元，静态市盈率22倍，和宁德时代一比，真的要低到尘埃里了。更甚者，就算拉来目前A股市值最高的三大主车厂，比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团，三者合计市值10881亿元，宁德时代以一人之力创出万亿市值，相当彪悍。节点财经认为，由于新能源行业正处在成长期，宁德时代以龙头地位下的规模扩张优势，较容易凸显出市占率聚集效应，导致发展空间被看远、看久。韩国研究机构SNEResearch统计，今年1-4月，全球电动汽车电池销量65.9Gwh，其中宁德时代占有32.5%的份额。然而，作为大宗消费品，汽车具有消费频次低，非刚需等特点，这又在一定程度上决定了该行业进入成熟期的速度要快于手机、家电等一般消费品，且需求增量有限，随着产业链出货量增速放缓，宁德时代还有多少估值空间可以透支？近期，上海证券、财信证券均给予宁德时代“谨慎增持”或“谨慎推荐”评级。/ 03 /即将到来的解禁潮对短期投资者来说，宁德时代即将于6月10日迎来的一波解禁巨浪是需要特别警惕的。截至目前，宁德时代股价为432.21元/股，总市值为10068亿元，为创业板首只万亿市值个股。4116.29亿元的解禁市值占宁德时代总市值的40.88%，下周解禁后，宁德时代流通盘将大增70.18%。宁德时代6月10日解禁的股份来自于5名股东，分别为瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平、东鹏伟创投资、绿联君和产业并购股权投资基金合伙企业，截至2021年一季度末，瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平分列宁德时代第一、第二、第五大股东。在宁德时代下周解禁的5个股东中，瑞庭投资解禁市值达2470亿元，黄世霖解禁市值达1127.64亿元，李平解禁市值达483.86亿元，其他两名股东解禁市值不足20亿元。瑞庭投资为宁德时代控股股东，由宁德时代创始人、董事长曾毓群100%控股，黄世霖、李平为宁德时代联合创始人、副董事长，其中李平和曾毓群为一致行动人。宁德时代解禁详细信息一般来说，解禁会形成股东减持预期，迫使盘面股价短期承压，属于对散户们的重大利空。那么，巨量解禁之下，宁德时代在万亿市值的关口能够站得稳吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}